Last week we started our "Most Valuable' series by taking a look at the performance of our centremen during the 2021 season. We compared draft data to their end of year stats to get an idea of how well they had lived up to their average draft ranking (ADP). To be a valuable player in this context then a player needs to outperform their ADP. This week we are going to move on to left wings. The previous piece on centres is available here.

As a quick reminder on process – the ADPs are based off draft rankings across several sites and averaged. In this case our top five drafted left wings are:

	ADP Rank
Artemi Panarin	5
Alex Ovechkin	9
Brad Marchand	15
Jonathan Huberdeau	18
Jake Guentzel	24

The ADP rank column is actually a little different than their true ADP though. I am using rank as it is a little easier to compare across the board. So, for Artemi Panarin his average draft position was 6.7, but that is the fifth highest average draft position of all players, so his ADP Rank is 5. This ADP Rank is also among all players, so he was the fifth ranked player on average, but the first left wing.

Next, we compare that rank to the player's year-long performance. We are taking Yahoo's standard calculation for points (six for a goal, four for an assist, etc) and apply that to Frozen Tool's Big Board Report. In order to do this, we export the report, then add a little equation adding all of the values for each scoring category. That gives us a total-points produced for all players, which we can then rank. We will use both rank and actuals in the column – but we will get to actuals in a minute.

First up ranks – we aren't just looking at who ranked the highest in points, we are looking for the player who had the largest difference between his draft rank and his performance rank.

	ADP Rank	PTS Rank	Δ
Ondrej Palat	220	52	168
Rickard Rakell	271	112	159
Alex Killorn	242	98	144
Nils Hoglander	278	140	138
Roope Hintz	213	77	136

To perform really well in this metric it obviously helps to have been drafted late. It is much easier to outperform an ADP of 220 than of 50. That being said, Ondrej Palat clearly takes the cake here. Not only does he have the largest 'growth', but he has the highest points rank of the group. You have to drop 10-15 more spots to find higher ranked David Perron, and Kirill Kaprizov, who both outperformed their ADP by about 100 spots.

Palat's 69 full-season point pace matched his career high set back in 2014-15. He saw an increase in his total time on ice, the highest since 2016-17, and he spent most of his time skating with Brayden Point and Steven Stamkos. Those things are all wonderful but the really big change was his career-high 20 power-play points. With a more usual power-play point production his pace would have been a much more usual (and pedestrian) 50-55. Unsurprisingly his power-play time was a career high – over three minutes a night, and a full two minutes higher than in 19-20 and 30 seconds more than his previous high back in 2016-17. The sustainability of that time is a big question as Stamkos and Nikita Kucherov missed time (or you know the whole season) leaving a top power-play spot open. In the first round of the playoffs (with a fully healthy team), Palat got meaningful power-play time in just one game, and saw three games without power-play time at all.

And now the flip side – who was not worth the price?

	ADP Rank	PTS Rank	Δ
Teuvo Teravainen	57	216	-159
Patrik Laine	33	160	-127
Pierre-Luc Dubois	76	174	-98
Alexis Lafreniere	100	192	-92
Jonathan Drouin	109	185	-76

Teuvo Teravainen spent most of the season hurt, so he clearly wasn't worth it, and rookie hype probably boosted Alexis Lafrenière, but Patrik Laine and Pierre-Luc Dubois really stand out here (and not just because they were traded for each other).

Laine had a season he likely hopes we will all forget. His 43-point full season pace was the lowest of his career. I am sure there will be many post-mortems on his season, but one thing that stands out pretty dramatically is his shot pace. After four consecutive seasons of three shots per game he dropped to 1.8. Something in Winnipeg (as he was traded), and then Columbus (as he was terrible) was just not working. Coach John Tortorella is not returning so Laine has to hope that he gels more with a new coach’s style of play.

As promised, we now move to a review of the data based on actual production vs ranked production. With the full season data, we can compare all players' draft position to their end of year points and produce a trend line. With this line we can take any draft position and get an 'expected' number of points. A player's true points then will give us an idea of how much they performed above or below expected.

Here is our top five:

	Expected Pts	PTS	PTS Δ
Alex DeBrincat	285.9	463.5	177.6
David Perron	278.0	447.9	169.9
Kirill Kaprizov	273.2	425.3	152.1
Ondrej Palat	214.8	353.9	139.1
Evander Kane	297.4	428.6	131.2

Here we see the emergence of Perron and Kaprizov, but Alex DeBrincat definitely takes the cake. Perron has been good for a few seasons, though managers still seem to be undervaluing him.  The Kaprizov highlight reel was essentially continuous all season, so it really isn't a surprise to see him here either.

Alex Debrincat's 88 full season pace is no real surprise either when you take a look at his data. Career high power-play time, career high even strength time on ice, career high shots per game, career high shooting percentage – oh and almost all of that time on ice was with Patrick Kane. Sure, shooting percentage may mean a couple fewer goals (though he has shot 15+ before), but everything else looks pretty good. The only real concern is deployment if Chicago decides to shake things up when Jonothan Toews returns.

And now on to the disappointments.

	Expected Pts	PTS	PTS Δ
Teuvo Teravainen	337.7	118.1	-219.6
Nicholas Robertson	191.8	12.1	-179.7
Tyler Bertuzzi	235.8	64	-171.8
Patrik Laine	360.1	207.8	-152.3
Pierre-Luc Dubois	313.4	182.4	-131.0

Very similar list here, which is great as it gives us a chance to talk about Dubois. Tyler Bertuzzi was again injured, and Nicholas Robertson had the benefit of being the latest Leaf's auto-draft.

Dubois's 37-point pace is a far cry from 19-20's 57. When he first arrived in Winnipeg it looked like there might be something there but one point in his last twelve games, seeing less than 15 minutes a night on average deflated whatever hope there was. The bad news is nothing in his numbers screams unsustainable except for his secondary assist rate, which was actually too high(!). There is a bit of room for modest corrections to get closer to career averages, but the biggest problem is going to be deployment. There was a chunk of games in the middle of the season where he was getting to play with Kyle Connor and/or Nikolaj Ehlers as the second-line center and getting closer to 16 minutes a night. In that time frame he was putting up a 55-point pace. That is what needs to happen for him to right the ship. Unfortunately, he was seeing third line duty and under 14 minutes a night in four of his last five games of the regular season. In the playoffs it looks like he has shifted to the wing on the second line – so it is definitely a situation that needs monitoring.

That is all for this week. Thanks for reading.

Stay safe out there.

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