Eastern Edge: Power-play value for Gustafsson, McAvoy, and Caufield

Brennan Des

2021-06-08

In this week's Eastern Edge, we'll discuss playoff power plays and their influence on fantasy value. In particular, we'll focus on David Pastrnak and Charlie McAvoy in Boston, as well as Cole Caufield and Erik Gustafsson in Montreal. I apologize for the Habs-centered discussion in recent weeks. Next week I promise to give Carolina, Tampa Bay, and the New York Islanders the attention they deserve.

Boston Bruins

Although he managed a point-per-game pace, the 2021 regular season was relatively underwhelming for David Pastrnak. He scored 20 goals in 48 games, which translates to 34 goals in your typical 82-game season. That pales in comparison to the 56 goals he paced for last year, and the 47-goal pace he posted a year before that. It's worth noting that Pastrnak had hip surgery in September of 2020, which probably disturbed his normal offseason training routine. The recovery process ate into the start of this season and Pastrnak didn't make his debut until January 30th – two weeks after the Bruins played their first game. He was already playing catch-up due to the delayed start, but the condensed schedule probably made it even harder for him to perform at full capacity this year.

Pastrnak's underwhelming goal total also seems to be a result of his reduced productivity with the man advantage. Last season, he led the league with 20 power-play goals through 70 appearances (0.29PPG/game). This year, he posted just six power-play goals through 48 outings (0.13PPG/game). This reduction may be explained – at least in part – by the state of flux caused by Torey Krug's departure. Krug was a prominent piece of Boston's top power-play unit last year, leading the Bruins with 26 assists on the man advantage. Without Krug's playmaking abilities at their disposal, the Bruins had to test out different players on the top unit, including Nick Ritchie, Matt Grzelcyk and Charlie McAvoy. Ritchie couldn't sustain his early success with the man advantage, Grzelcyk was frequently injured, and McAvoy wasn't utilized all that often because he already played so many important defensive minutes. Although the Bruins were still relatively successful with the power play this season, they didn't look like they were firing on all cylinders as they did in previous years.

Fast forward to the playoffs and all those regular season storylines are nothing more than a distant memory. Through 10 playoff games, David Pastrnak has seven goals – three of which were scored with the man advantage. Boston's power-play has been excellent during the 2021 postseason, capitalizing on 10 of its 30 opportunities. The catalyst for this success with the man advantage? A new-look top unit which features Brad Marchand, David Pastrnak, Patrice Bergeron, David Krejci and Charlie McAvoy. McAvoy leads the team with seven power-play points and is proving he can quarterback the top unit. The 23-year-old defenseman has been a strong option in multicategory fantasy leagues since he made his debut in 2017. If McAvoy remains on the top power-play unit next year, we could see him reach new offensive heights and become one of the league's most valuable fantasy blueliners. With that being said, I do think Matt Grzelcyk will get another shot on the top unit at some point next year. Whether or not he can outperform McAvoy is a different question.

Montreal Canadiens

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In Monday's series-clinching win over the Jets, Erik Gustafsson scored on Montreal's first power-play of the game. More importantly, the Canadiens looked incredibly dangerous in the sequence leading up to the goal. There's probably some recency bias on my end, but I don't recall the Habs looking that dangerous with the man advantage since back in the day when Andrei Markov and P.K. Subban worked their magic from the point. The Canadiens' top unit of Cole Caufield, Nick Suzuki, Tyler Toffoli, Corey Perry and Gustafsson has looked really good recently. While Suzuki, Toffoli and Perry were a part of Montreal's inconsistent power-play during the regular season, Caufield and Gustafsson have really added some energy to the group. Caufield has an incredible shot which opponents have to respect, but he also keeps the power-play dynamic by moving his feet frequently and finding areas from which he can generate offense. He fell in the 2019 draft because of his small size, but his offensive tools clearly translate to the NHL level and I'm confident he'll score a lot of goals in this league. The hype surrounding his success has probably inflated his fantasy value already, but you'd still be wise to keep him on your radar in dynasty/keeper leagues. 

While Gustafsson's defensive deficits have been highlighted frequently, I think he's looked pretty good overall in the 2021 playoffs. He displays strong playmaking abilities on the power-play and has a more accurate shot than most of Montreal's blueliners. He's struggled to find consistency as he's moved through four teams over the past few years, but coach Dominique Ducharme has carefully managed Gustafsson's deployment and placed him in a position to succeed offensively in Montreal. I'm not sure where Gus will end up playing next year, but if he's utilized on the top power-play and plays even-strength minutes beside a defensively responsible partner, I really think he can be a solid contributor in fantasy formats.

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