Welcome back for part 2 of The Good, The Bad (fair) and The Ugly

In the same vein as last week, I will review two players that fall into each category. The good will cover players that produced over expectations & provided really good to exceptional value to their cap hit. The 'bad' – perhaps better viewed as fair market value, or players that produced on par with salary expectations. The ugly, is just that, players that performed poorly and created an unexpected anchor on your roster.

As stated last week, the base method I am using for determining a player's value is 10-points of production per one million AAV. In multi-cat pools this calculation gets a whole lot muddier as you need to consider many more statistical categories.

A quick review on players I've eliminated from consideration. Your elite-studs – both on expensive contracts (Connor McDavid) and cap-friendly deals (Nathan MacKinnon); entry level contracts (Jason Robertson); and players that missed the majority of the season due to injury (Tyler Seguin).

 Now that we've refreshed the basic ground rules. Here's two players that gave incredible return on their cap hit:

THE GOOD

Philipp Grubauer – Goalie – Colorado Avalanche ($3.33M)

Concerns were raised last season regarding both Grubauer's durability and his ability to be a true number one goalie for the Avalanche. At least for 2020-21, he silenced those critics in a big way.

In this shortened season Grubauer's numbers place him at the top of the league across the board. He finished second in wins (30), one behind Andrei Vasilevskiy, second in goals against (1.95), behind only Alex Nedeljkovic, eighth in save percentage (.922) and first in shutouts (7).

Not only has he silenced critics, but his performance this year left him as a Vezina finalist with Vasilevskiy and Marc-Andre Fleury. When you add in the savings Grubauer provided your team at $3.33M versus Vasilevskiy at $9.5M and Fleury at $7M he represented incredible value.

Entering unrestricted free agency, Grubauer picked a hell of a time to have a career year.  No other goalie provided his value over a full season at this cost. Jack Campbell & Nedeljkovic matched this value over part of the year, but not start to finish.

Easily the best value goalie from start to finish this season in cap leagues. He's in for a big raise.

Roope Hintz – Left Wing – Dallas Stars ($3.1M)

A lot of people, myself included, expected a step forward from Hintz. I don't know if anyone foresaw 43 points in 41 games (an 86 point pace). At the cheap, cheap price of $3.1M – that was a return of over 27 points per million dollars in cap-hit this was a grand-slam for owners.

Outside of entry-level contracts it doesn't get better than this.

Hintz had shown improvement in his second season, improving his point per game from .38 to .55.  At 6-3, 220, I had expected his improvement this year to be more incremental setting him up for a big fourth year. The stars aligned (pun intended) for Hintz this year.

There are some flags that owners should be wary of moving into next season. Specifically, his 3.5 points per 60 minutes, and his 5-on-5 shooting percentage of 11.7 percent. Both suggest regression next season. His secondary assist rate at 32.7 percent is a bit low compared to the league average, it may provide a slight counter balance. The biggest concern really lies with the return of Alexander Radulov and Tyler Seguin to the Stars line-up. Where Hintz fits in on the first or second power-play will be key.

In multi-cat pools Hintz delivered even more value on pace for 104 hits. With an increasing shots per game rate & entering his fourth year there is room for Hintz to improve.

Owners should revel in the return Hintz provided them this year as next year likely results in a setback on expectations.

The Bad (Fair)

Brayden Point – Center – Tampa Bay Lightening ($6.75M)

Point delivered pretty even money on his contract. His 48-points in 56 games put him on a 70-point pace over 82 games providing owners just slightly above ten points per million

He didn't leave owners complaining about his production throughout the season but he hasn't been able to replicate the 'wow' factor he produced in 2018-19 (92 points). In fact, we've watched his points per game dip in each of the two seasons since.

Even with his production dipping he still provides strong production in points leagues. In multi-cat pools there isn't a lot of extra value to pull from him. Point produces points and not much else.

It would be amiss to discuss Point's production and not mention the affect Kucherov would have had. It is entirely plausible Point would have produced over a point per game with Kucherov in the line-up. But he wasn't and Point didn't.

It will be interesting to see how the return of Kucherov coupled with the legitimate cap-crunch Tampa Bay finds themselves in this offseason balances out for Point and the team as a whole.

Sam Reinhart – Center/Right Wing – Buffalo Sabres ($5.2M)

Not that long ago I wrote about Reinhart basically as a 'boring' player who didn't provide a lot of goal scoring and that he was more of a complimentary player. Either he read that bit or karma smacked me in the face because he ended the year with 11 goals in his last 14 games.

Even with his sudden penchant for goal scoring he still found himself on pace for 61 points. With a shooting percentage 5.5 percent above his career average we shouldn't expect him to provide another 38-goal paced season.

He is a solid plug-and-play-type player. You know what you're going to get most years within a few points. He has now teased us with the potential to become a goal scorer. With a career 13.8 percent he needs to boost his shots per game to become an annual 30-goal threat.

Reinhart is a really good complimentary offensive player to both the Sabres and your fantasy team. You need Reinhart type players to help you week to week.

The Ugly

Keith Yandle – Defence – Florida Panthers ($6.35M)

It was quite the Yo-Yo season for the leagues current ironman, Yandle. From almost being scratched on opening night to producing 17 points in his first 27 games to playing less then ten minutes per game twice during the year. The end of his time in Florida appears to have arrived.

When you look at the end of season numbers for Yandle, a 40-point pace. As a defenceman, it's not horrific. There were some good moments mixed in.

But it was how it ended.  The second half of the season that resulted in Yandle ending up in this section of the article. The real low point was when he only saw 5:50 in ice-time on April 6. After that he only saw 18:00 of ice time or more in six of the teams final sixteen games. It seems like a good time to remind people that Aaron Ekblad was on injured reserve.  Twenty-five minutes of ice-time per game had to be replaced as of March 28 and none of it went to Yandle.

It makes you wonder if Florida has painted themselves into another corner where they include another big asset to an expansion team to entice them to take on a contract they no longer want.

Ryan Johansen – Center – Nashville Predators ($8M)

Yikes! Now this one hurts.

If you thought 2019-20 and his 43-point pace hurt, he encored it with a 38-point pace. There are almost no words to how poor of a season Johansen had. For most pools he represented 10-15 percent of your salary cap.

Hopefully you owned him in a league that gave no penalties for in-season drops. Even if you were faced with a penalty to drop him it was likely worth it.

Let's put this in full perspective, shall we? Eight million for 12 goals and 38 points (over 82 games). Jason Spezza produced at a 46-point pace with a cap-hit of $700 000. Even Tyler Bozak, the third line centre for the St. Louis Blues produced at 45-point pace for $5.2M.

When you unpack his season like this it really displays just how poor it really was. I'm not really sure what the problem in Nashville is, as it's not just Johansen producing at horrific rates but something has to give.

I don't think anyone can handle another four years of Johansen producing close to this, Johansen included.

(All stats from frozentools.com, all salary cap information from capfriendly.com, all league leader info from NHL.com)

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