Capped: Players providing above- and below-market value – Part 2

Logan Doyle

2021-06-17

Welcome back for part 2 of The Good, The Bad (fair) and The Ugly

In the same vein as last week, I will review two players that fall into each category. The good will cover players that produced over expectations & provided really good to exceptional value to their cap hit. The 'bad' – perhaps better viewed as fair market value, or players that produced on par with salary expectations. The ugly, is just that, players that performed poorly and created an unexpected anchor on your roster.

As stated last week, the base method I am using for determining a player's value is 10-points of production per one million AAV. In multi-cat pools this calculation gets a whole lot muddier as you need to consider many more statistical categories.

A quick review on players I've eliminated from consideration. Your elite-studs – both on expensive contracts (Connor McDavid) and cap-friendly deals (Nathan MacKinnon); entry level contracts (Jason Robertson); and players that missed the majority of the season due to injury (Tyler Seguin).

 Now that we've refreshed the basic ground rules. Here's two players that gave incredible return on their cap hit:

THE GOOD

Philipp Grubauer – Goalie – Colorado Avalanche ($3.33M)

Concerns were raised last season regarding both Grubauer's durability and his ability to be a true number one goalie for the Avalanche. At least for 2020-21, he silenced those critics in a big way.

In this shortened season Grubauer's numbers place him at the top of the league across the board. He finished second in wins (30), one behind Andrei Vasilevskiy, second in goals against (1.95), behind only Alex Nedeljkovic, eighth in save percentage (.922) and first in shutouts (7).

Not only has he silenced critics, but his performance this year left him as a Vezina finalist with Vasilevskiy and Marc-Andre Fleury. When you add in the savings Grubauer provided your team at $3.33M versus Vasilevskiy at $9.5M and Fleury at $7M he represented incredible value.

Entering unrestricted free agency, Grubauer picked a hell of a time to have a career year.  No other goalie provided his value over a full season at this cost. Jack Campbell & Nedeljkovic matched this value over part of the year, but not start to finish.

Easily the best value goalie from start to finish this season in cap leagues. He's in for a big raise.

Roope Hintz – Left Wing – Dallas Stars ($3.1M)

A lot of people, myself included, expected a step forward from Hintz. I don't know if anyone foresaw 43 points in 41 games (an 86 point pace). At the cheap, cheap price of $3.1M – that was a return of over 27 points per million dollars in cap-hit this was a grand-slam for owners.