Ramblings: Tatar and Ehlers; Nichushkin; Hyman; Habs take Game 2 – June 17
Michael Clifford
2021-06-17
I think there's a lesson being taught to fantasy owners these playoffs that we need to keep in mind each and every fantasy season: we are at the mercy of individual coaches, the minutes they give players, and the combinations they use them in.
I am reminded of this as I sit here and contemplate Montreal's lineup for Game 3. It is Wednesday afternoon and the game is in about eight hours. Tomas Tatar looks like he'll be a healthy scratch yet again, in favour of players worse than him. Over the last month, a lot has been talked about Tatar and his value and what he's done in the playoffs. A couple things about that.
First, Tatar, in these playoffs, has over double the 5-on-5 points rate of Paul Byron and Josh Anderson, while Jake Evans doesn't even have a point. So, if the argument for scratching Tatar is that he hasn't been productive enough, why are Byron and Anderson still in the lineup? Why are they itching to get Evans back in the lineup when he's healthy?
Ok maybe it's something other than production. What about defensive ability? Well, his line with Gallagher/Danault posted a 44.4 expected goal share against the Leafs, and that's not good. But we have to remember that they were matched against the Matthews line, and going nearly 45 percent against the Matthews line is good work. The Habs scored one goal with Tatar on the ice and allowed one goal. Breaking even against Hyman-Matthews-Marner? Is that supposed to be bad? Even just looking individually, in the five games Tatar played, the team had a 1.75 expected goals against rate per 60 minutes at 5-on-5, and 1.08 actual goals against. Paul Byron, conversely, was on the ice for 4.09 expected goals against per 60 in those five games, and a whopping 5.29 actual goals against per 60. So if it's defensive performance, what gives? (Arturri Lehkonen's numbers were similarly awful.)
So it's not offensive production and it's not poor defence. What is it?
Anyway, this is a guy with a long history of not only being good in this league, but also forming what is arguably the best 5-on-5 line in hockey with Danault and Gallagher. And despite a down-turn in production, he's still out-producing players that are replacing him in the lineup.
So, when I say that we're at the mercy of coaches, this is what I mean. It doesn't have to be 5-on-5, either, as limited power-play minutes is one of the most frustrating thing about owning a potentially elite fantasy option; say hi to Nikolaj Ehlers, everyone.
And it's an important concept to keep in mind as we round into any fantasy season. Maybe it's a bit early to be talking about all this right now, and we can do all the projecting we want, but what the roles are when we get into a season is all that matters. We know the roles of superstars are fairly cemented, but the number of superstars in the league isn't numerous; you might get three or four in a 12-team league. For the rest, their roles may change, wildly, throughout the season, and constant adjustment is necessary.
It is also important to try to get into the heads of coaches. What type of player do coaches use in different roles i.e. who gets ice time with empty nets and who doesn't? Who plays what role on the power play? What is the role of the player that is used as third wheel on lines like Matthews-Marner, Point-Kucherov, McDavid-Draisaitl, and so on? Are there any commonalities? Figuring this out is a bit of a puzzle, but the data is there. We just need to go searching a bit.
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An update on Valeri Nichushkin:
At time of writing – early Wednesday night – there's still no update from anyone about what this is. When we get more information, we'll pass it along.
For now, what I will say is that I thought that Nichushkin was pretty much at his best in the playoffs, particularly against Vegas. To me, he finally looked like the guy he was drafted to be all those years ago, both offensively and defensively. In my head, whatever Nichushkin needed a procedure on, I can't imagine it's anything major. If it were, we wouldn't have seen that level of performance from him.
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A Paul Byron breakaway goal held up as the game-winning tally as the Habs evened the series with the Golden Knights 1-1 via 3-2 win. Writing this, I understand the coincidence, having written what is posted up above, before the game started. It is a wonderful sport.
Carey Price stopped 29 of 31 shots in the win while Tyler Toffoli extended his point streak with his fifth goal of the playoffs. The pairing of Ben Chiarot (9) and Shea Weber (7) combined for 16 hits in the game, which made me laugh. They led Montreal in this regard, obviously.
Alex Pietrangelo scored both goals in the loss for Vegas, giving his team five goals from defencemen through two games in this series. That is all well and good, but at some point the forwards need to start scoring, too.
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While we've been talking about guys potentially on the move this summer like Jack Eichel being traded or Taylor Hall's new destination, there is Zach Hyman to think about.
Hyman posted back-to-back 20-goal seasons in 2018-19 and 2019-20 and would have almost assuredly hit that in a full-ish season this year (he had 15 in 43 games). A guy who can post 20-goal seasons while being responsible defensively doesn't come by often, and they aren't cheap. As this article by James Mirtle at The Athletic points out, guys who fit this kind of mold – winger who is both good defensively and productive offensively – are names like Nick Foligno and Ryan Callahan. Maybe they're not all the exact same types of players, but they bring similar impacts to their game, or did in their primes. As Mirtle points out, guys like that are typically around 8-percent of the cap, or in today's world, over $6M a season. Signing Hyman for a little over $6M a season would leave the Leafs with about $6.5M in cap space with at least a half-dozen players to sign. In other words, they need about one-third of a team to come in on near-min salaries to make it work. It is not worth it. (Side note: they did re-sign Jason Sepzza yesterday as well. It's a start.)
So, the question becomes: where does Hyman end up?
I will say this right out of the gate: Hyman sure feels like a future Ottawa Senator, yeah? The team has no significant money commitments besides Murray and Chabot, and even those two guys combine for under $15M a season. Everyone else on the roster is at $5M or less. They have the cap space and signing Evgenii Dadonov last offseason told me they want to be better soon rather than later i.e. through free agency rather than simply building through the draft then signing those players at a later date. Signing Hyman would allow them to run Tkachuk-Hyman in their top-6 while allowing Tim Stutzle to move to centre. That would allow them to have a top-6 mix of something like the following:
Tkachuk-Norris-Batherson
Hyman-Stutzle-Dadonov
That is still a young crop, but it certainly has the making of a real good top-6 make-up in a couple years.
One team that came to mind is the Columbus Blue Jackets, but with Patrik Laine and Gustav Nyquist around, they already have their top-6 left side kind of set, with Nyquist filling a similar role. With where the team is at and all the upheaval, adding a significant contract like this at this moment seems foolish.
I hate to bring them up every time we talk about a player changing teams, but what about the Los Angeles Kings? It seems they want to start loading up for a Cup run while they have their kids on ELCs. That makes sense given that Anze Kopitar's deal runs out in three years, but it also means the Kings have to get their act in gear and start swinging. They have the space this year as they don't have any significant RFA contracts to hand out, and the deals on Dustin Brown and Olli Maatta run out next year, which will free up over $9M a season. They can afford Hyman and he is the type of player that this team would love: a grinding two-way winger who can score. He very much fits the identity of the Kings.
The last team I'll mention as a bit of a dark horse is the Anaheim Ducks. Hyman being UFA at age-29 doesn't really fit their timeline, but this is a team utterly bereft of talent on the wings, and they need help insulating their young centres in Sam Steel and Trevor Zegras. Just loading them with more rookies and throwing them to the wolves doesn't seem like a great idea. Bringing in a veteran like Hyman, who can be relied upon to help those young centres be responsible defensively, would make sense in a way. Again, it doesn't line up with the team's timeline, but there are only so many teams that can afford to sign Hyman this offseason for what he'll fetch.
Wherever he ends up, I'll be interested to see what Hyman does offensively. Clearly, the best seasons of his career were playing with guys like Tavares or Matthews. What if he goes to Columbus to play with Max Domi? Or to Anaheim to play with Sam Steel? Again, as I mentioned at the top of these Ramblings, the role of the player and where he plays determines a lot of most players' value.