Every Sunday, we share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean, and Dobber

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1. This might be mildly concerning if you’re a Kirill Kaprizov owner.

Kevin Weekes @KevinWeekes: As of now talks with likely Rookie of the yr Kaprizov & @mnwild have gone cold. My understanding is he's in Moscow and it's believed CSKA is interested in signing him for KHL & Olympics. @NHL @NHLNetwork #HockeyTwitter

I would have thought that Kaprizov was already signed to multiple years on an entry-level deal, but he did sign a two-year contract before the return to play last summer (he was ineligible to play in the first year, as it was just for him to be around the team). Kaprizov is a 10.2c free agent, which means he is ineligible for an offer sheet. Not that offer sheets are commonplace, but this seems to be the most likely alternative should he be unable to come to terms with the Wild. Kaprizov is a potential franchise player, so he is not someone they should try to go cheap on, even if they have their share of undesirable contracts. The Wild’s CapFriendly page will give you a better idea, if you’re not sure who I mean. (jun19)

2. We know that Vegas is a team that can take over games for long stretches. However, it’s starting to feel like they can lack finish at times, particularly when they face a hot goalie. Look at Thatcher Demko‘s three-game run in the bubble last season (0.64 GAA, .984 SV%), when the Canucks nearly stole that second-round series. Now the Golden Knights appear to be reliving that with Carey Price. (jun19)

3. Rather than the cheesy award show that we’ve become used to, and of course because of the pandemic, the NHL has decided to announce its award winners via press release on a nightly basis. On Friday, Aleksander Barkov won the Selke Trophy, finishing ahead of Patrice Bergeron and Mark Stone.

When the nominees were first announced, I had a long discussion on Twitter as to what the criteria were for nomination. Long story short: it seems very subjective. I can remember a time when the award was given to a defensive specialist like a Bob Gainey or a Guy Carbonneau. If you’re looking for that guy among the nominees, Phillip Danault (another Hab) might be a deserving winner.

Danault finished sixth in the voting while scoring at less than a 0.5 PTS/GP pace. He was a top-20 finisher in faceoffs won while finishing with above a 52.5% success rate, often against teams’ top lines. In addition, he finished third on the Habs among players with at least 30 GP with a 58.4 SAT%. There were a grab bag of various stats listed in the Selke finalist press release, so I’m probably only scratching the surface with Danault’s strengths. Regardless, Danault seems to be that throwback Selke finalist.

Getting back to Barkov, knocking off top-drawer two-way forwards like Bergeron and Stone for this award is quite an accomplishment. In addition to strong defensive play, Barkov finished tenth with a 1.16 PTS/GP pace. He’s a tremendous player, both in real life and in the fantasy game. (jun19)

4. If the Tampa Bay Lightning win the Stanley Cup, Brayden Point has to be considered a Conn Smythe favorite for his dynamic clutch play. As I’ve mentioned before, Point is the one player I notice the most whenever I watch the Lightning. Point now has a goal in seven consecutive games, as well as the playoff goal-scoring lead with 12 goals. Perhaps surprisingly, Point has just four assists, but he's still second in playoff points. Nikita Kucherov is the runaway playoff scoring leader with 24 points (5 G, 19 A).  (jun18)

5. Ryan Pulock has four goals in 16 playoff games after scoring just two goals in 56 regular-season games. With the kind of shot that he has (take a look at his Game 1 goal), it seems like a major surprise that he scored only two goals during the regular season. You’ll probably be able to get him cheap in next season’s drafts.  (jun18)

6. Maybe it’s a bit early to be talking about all this right now, and we can do all the projecting we want, but what the roles are when we get into a season is all that matters. We know the roles of superstars are fairly cemented, but the number of superstars in the league isn’t numerous; you might get three or four in a 12-team league. For the rest, their roles may change, wildly, throughout the season, and constant adjustment is necessary.

It is also important to try to get into the heads of coaches. What type of player do coaches use in different roles i.e. who gets ice time with empty nets and who doesn’t? Who plays what role on the power play? What is the role of the player that is used as third wheel on lines like Matthews-Marner, Point-Kucherov, McDavid-Draisaitl, and so on? Are there any commonalities? Figuring this out is a bit of a puzzle, but the data is there. We just need to go searching a bit.  (jun17)

7. While we’ve been talking about guys potentially on the move this summer like Jack Eichel being traded or Taylor Hall‘s new destination, there is Zach Hyman to think about.

Hyman posted back-to-back 20-goal seasons in 2018-19 and 2019-20 and would have almost assuredly hit that in a full-ish season this year (he had 15 in 43 games). A guy who can post 20-goal seasons while being responsible defensively doesn’t come by often, and they aren’t cheap. Signing Hyman for a little over $6M a season would leave the Leafs with about $6.5M in cap space with at least a half-dozen players to sign. In other words, they need about one-third of a team to come in on near-min salaries to make it work. It is not worth it. (Side note: they did re-sign Jason Sepzza yesterday as well. It’s a start.)

Wherever he ends up, I’ll be interested to see what Hyman does offensively. Clearly, the best seasons of his career were playing with guys like Tavares or Matthews. What if he goes to Columbus to play with Max Domi? Or to Anaheim to play with Sam Steel? Again, as I mentioned at the top, the role of the player and where he plays determines a lot of most players’ value.  (jun17)

8. Boston finally had some scoring depth this season, but ran into a hot team and got bounced in the second round. If UFA Taylor Hall and David Krejci both move on (or maybe even if just one of them does) then Boston may start breaking up their top line again.

The bigger problem when looking at the Bruins situation is their lack of centre depth if Krejci does move on. Patrice Bergeron is going to be 36 at the start of the season, and only has a year left. Now he’s likely not going to leave, but the possibility is always there, and Boston doesn’t have an internal option to replace him on the top line. Charlie Coyle isn’t a bad player, but he tops out as a second line centre. (jun16)

9. Colorado is the best team in the league on paper, but another Nazem Kadri suspension in the playoffs possibly means he played his last game there, and despite being flush with cap space over the last year or two, they are now facing the possibility of losing at least one key name if they want to keep the rest of the group together. (jun16)

10. Alec Martinez has earned himself a big raise on the FA market. I would offer him more than Tyson Barrie. I’m not sure that Vegas can afford to keep him now, so of course they will go out and get someone better. Do they bring in Mattias Ekholm, Matt Dumba, Nick Leddy, Rasmus Ristolainen, etc? The list is almost endless of players they could acquire (likely with some money retained on most), and they have the advantage of not having to worry about protection slots on defence. Most teams won’t want to part with a top prospect for someone they will have to protect. (jun16)

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IN THE SHOP:

The 2021-22 products are now available for pre-sale! The usual Packs – Keeper League and Ultimate Packs. You can also subscribe, choosing one of three different subscriptions. The first document out will be the Fantasy Prospects Report, which will be ready on July 10.

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11. I’m hopeful the Islanders can re-sign Kyle Palmieri, because he compliments the skill set of the team very well, and for his value, he has settled in after a slow start with the team.

Four points in 17 regular season games is not exactly what the Islanders had in mind when they paid a first rounder for him, however when your opposite winger (Michael Dal Colle) can’t even crack the playoff lineup, then getting acclimatized is going to be a bit more difficult.

In the playoffs, Palmieri now has nine points in 16 games, which isn’t far off of his peak regular season pace. That regular season pace has been set over the last five years, with hardly any variance. Palmieri has paced for between 54-58 points since joining New Jersey in 2015, and expecting him back around that level next year would be the smart bet regardless of where he signs. (jun16)

12. Gerard Gallant replaces David Quinn as Rangers' head coach. Dobber had a breakdown of what this means here. One thing Gallant’s Vegas teams were notorious for was really being on the forefront of constantly looking for seam passes in the offensive zone. I know it’s a simple enough concept, but it really was a team philosophy. That type of offensive approach should only help all the top-end talent they have there. This is a good hire. (jun15)

13. How about the season Joel Farabee just had? It really was a remarkable campaign for the second-year player. (I do think one reason for the lack of awareness of Farabee’s greatness is that he was neither a rookie nor elite enough to stand out among the upper-echelon of players. That left him in the muddled middle. All the same, it was a great year.) Let us count the ways:

• First among Flyers forwards in goals per 60 minutes, primary assists per 60 minutes, and points per 60 minutes at 5-on-5.
• First among Flyers forwards in goals per 60 minutes at all strengths.
• 12^th in the league among forwards in points/60 at 5-on-5, between Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen.
• Fourth in the league among forwards in goals/60 at 5-on-5, between Brandon Saad and Brad Marchand.

On top of that he was a good – not great – offensive driver. In other words, he may not be a great playmaker, at least not right now, but he sure seems a good finisher.

Now, Farabee shot over 16 percent and we should expect a repeat of that. But it was his age-20 season and he’s only going to get better. Hopefully, the lack of hype keeps his price depressed at the draft table next year because this should be a good team again and he may be their best sniper, which is saying something on that roster. (jun15)

14. This is a big offseason for the Carolina Hurricanes for a number of reasons. First up is just the magnitude of their UFAs/RFAs. They have all three goalies up for contracts – Petr Mrazek and James Reimer as UFA and Alex Nedeljkovic as RFA – Jake Bean as an RFA, Andrei Svechnikov as an RFA, as well as a bevy of UFA bottom-6 guys. At the least, Nedeljkovic, Bean, and Svechnikov are all significant pieces of this team’s future, so there is a lot of work to be done. (jun15)

15. One name is missing from the Canes' list above and it’s UFA Dougie Hamilton. Elliotte Friedman with the latest: A sign the off-season is really revving up as the final four chase the Stanley Cup: Carolina has given Dougie Hamilton permission to talk to other NHL teams. Opens potential for a sign-and-trade.

Out of the gate: the reason for a sign-and-trade would be so a team can sign him for eight years instead of seven. What is that extra year worth to a team? It shouldn’t be much, if anything, but the option is there. It feels to me like the Hurricanes are grasping a bit at straws here because they want to get something rather than nothing for a significant asset they’re about to lose. One cannot blame others for grasping at straws when there aren’t much better options available.

It does seem like this is the end of Hamilton’s tenure in Carolina, which is a shame all around. He was a great fit on that team and he is not replaceable. They might bring in other players or have young guys make a jump, but there were basically three straight seasons with Hamilton performing at a Norris-calibre level. Whatever player they sign, whatever rookie makes a jump, that is something that is just not replaceable.

So where does Hamilton go? Let us assume a sign-and-trade is something that happens here. (Personally, I feel as if this is unlikely as even though we won’t be in a flat-cap situation in 4-5 years when Hamilton really starts aging as there are a lot of teams still with tight purse strings now.) I cannot imagine there’ll be a significant bidding war here outside of maybe the half-dozen teams that can have legitimate interest, either due to assets or cap space. Where are some potential landing spots? Follow the link for a few that come to mind. (jun15)

16. I thought I’d take my first real good look at the Seattle expansion draft. Of course I would use the best tools for this out there – found at Cap Friendly.

The Tougher Decisions:

In general, any player set to become a UFA a week after the expansion draft, I expose. Unless protecting them helps me best fit into the criteria (rare).

For Boston I chose protecting Jake DeBrusk and Trent Frederic over Craig Smith or Ondrej Kase.

For Buffalo I chose protecting Anders Bjork over Rasmus Asplund or Zemgus Girgensons.

For Calgary, Milan Lucic waives his NMC, as he said he would.

For Chicago I chose protecting Henrik Borgstrom, Alex Nylander and Adam Gaudette over Brandon Hagel.

For Colorado I chose protecting Valeri Nichushkin over Joonas Donskoi. I went with age and upside there, as well as potential salary cap appeal.

For Edmonton, I leave Mikko Koskinen exposed because Seattle won’t touch his cap hit and frankly I think the Oilers will buy him out if he goes unclaimed. So I guess that means Stuart Skinner gets protected, or potential UFA Mike Smith.

Not a decision here, but for Minnesota we’re forced to expose Matt Dumba. This is because Ryan Suter, Jared Spurgeon and Jonas Brodin have NMCs. I’d be begging Suter to waive his.

For Montreal, I protected Ben Chiarot over Joel Edmundson.

For Nashville, it was either protect Mattias Ekholm and use the 4/4/1 protection rule, or expose him and protect Luke Kunin/Calle Jarnkrok/Yakov Trenin and use the 7/3/1 rule. I chose to protect Ekholm, as defensemen don’t grow on trees and you can only lose one forward.

For New Jersey I protected Yegor Sharangovich and Michael McLeod over Nick Merkley and Janne Kuokkanen.

For Ottawa I protected Filip Gustavsson over Matt Murray. Contract reasons. I think Seattle would skip over Murray, but even if they don’t – Gustavsson is the top promising goalie prospect in the system.

For Philly, and this may sound crazy, but I protect Scott Laughton over Nolan Patrick.

For Pittsburgh I protected Jared McCann over Brandon Tanev (contract). I also protected Marcus Pettersson over Mike Matheson. I think Matheson’s potential that he finally showed us down the stretch may get overlooked and Seattle doesn’t touch him.

I protect Vince Dunn over Justin Faulk. I get that the latter is coming off a good year and the former is coming off a bad one, but that Faulk contract is an anchor and I don’t trust what kind of year we’ll get from him consistently.

I notice the Leafs will have to re-sign (likely) Alex Galchenyuk and Jason Spezza, so that the minimum of two signed forwards can be exposed. Plus another player, if they can’t re-sign Zach Hyman. Otherwise, Pierre Engvall gets exposed. Leaving it as is, they’d have to protect using the 4/4/1 rule, which means Justin Holl is protected while Engvall and Alex Kerfoot are not.

For Vancouver I protected Matthew Highmore over Tanner Pearson, for contract reasons. (jun14)

17. My Seattle Kraken Strategy:

Go through and choose goaltenders first. I want a veteran ‘name’ guy, but with a shorter contract. I want a prospect with high upside who is ready to play right now and has even gotten in a few NHL games already. And I want two other prospects who are close. A UFA signing can bring in another veteran as a No.3 in case the prospect isn’t as ready as I thought.

Then go through and select defensemen (but before picking one you like, review the forwards available). Then the forwards. Then review the teams and make tweaks. I notice that several teams did a good job with rule manipulation (games played minimums, etc.) to paint Seattle into a corner and leave them with basically only a couple of not-great players to choose from. But that’s what they gotta do! (jun14)

18. My Seattle Kraken team:

G – Cam Talbot, Vitek Vanecek, Adin Hill, Daniel Vladar

LD – Devon Toews, Brady Skjei, Jacob Larsson, Joel Edmundson, Gustav Forsling, Caleb Jones, Oliver Kylington

RD – Anthony DeAngelo, Scott Mayfield, Matt Roy

C – Calle Jarnkrok, Mason Appleton, Pierre Engvall, Mathieu Joseph, Kevin Stenlund

LW – James van Riemsdyk, Janne Kuokkanen, Brandon Hagel, Rasmus Asplund, Jason Dickinson

RW – Rudolfs Balcers, Zach Aston-Reese, Richard Panik, Auston Watson, Samuel Blais, Zack MacEwen

For the DeAngelo pick, besides the fact that I didn’t want to go with Brett Howden or Colin Blackwell, I think the upside versus-the-personality debate leans too strongly in the favor of upside here. I think if he puts points on the board the way he can, Seattle fans will forget all about reputation. Can he keep his mouth shut? That’s the big question. But the depth on defense makes this a worthy risk – they can simply bury him the way the Rangers did if it doesn’t work out. As a bonus, Ron Francis can act very hesitant about picking DeAngelo and entice the Rangers into floating him a draft pick in exchange for taking him off their hands.

The forwards are light on talent, but it is what it is. Calgary, Detroit and Dallas left pretty much nothing. JVR and Jarnkrok would lead the offense and this is a great opportunity for Balcers and Appleton to make their mark. And along with Kuokkanen and Hagel, those would be your best bets to be Seattle’s version of William Karlsson/Jonathan Marchessault.

I do love the goaltending dynamic and the left defense is strong. If ADA pans out, then the right defense will be strong as well.

This is a youthful team with some potential, but obvious growing pains. The cap hit is $54.4M, so plenty of room for trades. And I don’t believe I’ll get even half the players right, because teams will still trade and offer picks in order to get Seattle to lay off certain players. (jun14)

19. The Top 100 Roto Rankings have been updated for June. Hockey rankings might not be the most popular thing at the moment, but have a look and let me know what you think. We have the entire offseason to discuss potential changes. Here are three players that are back in after being pulled during the season. 

Talk about elevating your game under pressure! Carey Price has not posted a GAA above 2.00 in the playoffs in the last five seasons. But over a larger sample of regular-season games, Price’s GAA has been close to 2.50 or higher in each of the last four seasons.

Last offseason, I cited Price’s playoff performance as a reason to increase his regular-season roto value. I’m not sure I’ll do the same this season, as the two seem to be separate entities. Price is now 33 and may be dealing with the effects of a heavy workload, although he clearly hasn’t been worn down come playoff time. As much as it appears that Price clearly has a lot left, the regular-season numbers haven’t been there the last two seasons. Even if the Habs somehow manage to go all the way, be careful not to overvalue Price on draft day based on his playoff performance. (jun13)

20. There’s plenty to discuss as far as a potential Jack Eichel trade goes, but let’s recap the disaster of a season that was first. For a player that was drafted in the first round of many Yahoo leagues, Eichel could provide only 21 games because of a herniated disc in his neck that cut his season short. Of that, you may recall that he scored a grand total of two goals. This won’t come as any surprise, but Eichel’s shooting percentage was an astoundingly low 3.3%. Perhaps the herniated disc had something to do with that. At least we know there’s nowhere to go but up.

How far up that will be will depend a lot on where he plays next season. There’s always a greater than zero percent chance that he’ll stay in Buffalo, but it seems more likely than not that the Sabres will have to trade their star player and effectively start another rebuild. Given his price tag of $10 million for five more seasons, whichever team trades for him should slot him in as their first-line center with the prime power-play minutes. He could potentially be going to a better team than Buffalo, which could further increase his value. The high-scoring Rangers might be a good fit.

Where he plays next season isn’t the only issue, and it might not be the most important problem. The fact that Sabres’ doctors and Eichel disagree over a course of treatment should indicate that the injury is a fairly significant one. Eichel is expected to be ready for the start of the 2021-22 season, but what if he opts for surgery or a form of treatment that requires a longer rehab? Or what if he doesn’t, and a team acquires damaged goods, perhaps acquiring him at a discount? For those reasons, Eichel is a difficult player to value heading into next season, which means his value should fall from where it was pre-2020-21 season. (jun13)

21. It’s a miracle that Nikita Kucherov was healed from his offseason hip surgery just in time for the playoffs! Kidding aside, I don’t have a problem with the Lightning keeping him on LTIR. For starters, they’re not breaking any rules, as teams regularly exceed the cap during the playoffs. If they could win a Stanley Cup without Steven Stamkos, they figured they could probably make the playoffs without Kucherov. That’s the risk they took in not activating Kucherov, who was essentially a better addition than any of their competitors could muster at the trade deadline.

These playoffs should serve notice that Kucherov is back among the league’s elite. He currently leads the league in playoff scoring with 24 points, which is eights points more than anyone else the playoffs. Before the Lightning announced that he would miss the entire regular season, Kucherov was widely considered a top-5 pick in single-season drafts. I don’t see any reason he shouldn’t be back there, both in single-season and keeper formats. Pretty straightforward. (jun13)

Have a good week, folks – be safe!!

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