Every Sunday, we share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean, Brennan Des, and Dobber

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1. Just a quick thought: I’ve had two separate people ask me about Matthew Schaefer‘s fantasy relevance for the 2025-26 season only. If he sticks with the New York Islanders, they have six defencemen signed to NHL contracts already. Maybe he supplants one of Scott Mayfield or Adam Boqvist, but that would keep him on the third pair. He isn’t going to play ahead of Alex Romanov or Ryan Pulock at even strength, and Tony DeAngelo has the inside track for top PP minutes.

One thing working in Schaefer’s favour if he does make the team is how New York ran their blue line last year. They basically ran a five-defenceman rotation with five guys between 21:00 – 23:30 in ice time over the course of the season and 20-23 minutes down the stretch, with the sixth guy being used sparingly. With Noah Dobson gone, maybe Schaefer slides into the fifth role. But they can always change usage, and the Islanders won’t be a top scoring team, either. He has an incredibly bright future, but there are a lot of obstacles to fantasy relevance in most leagues even if he immediately sticks in the NHL. (june11)

2. Jeff Skinner has found a new home, finding his way to San Jose on a one-year contract worth $3 million. Skinner was held to just 29 points in 72 games in his lone season with the Oilers, and he was even healthy scratched for much of the playoffs. This might literally be his last NHL chance, but he may have a better opportunity to contribute to the Sharks than he did the Oilers, given the current states of the two teams. That being said, I’m probably not drafting Skinner on any of my fantasy teams, as the chances of a major turnaround still seem low. (june12)

Cliffy wrote a more detailed Fantasy Take on what Skinner could look like on the Sharks.

Elsewhere. Matt Dumba was traded from Dallas to Pittsburgh, along with a second-round pick in exchange for Vladislav Kolyachonok. This is a salary dump by Dallas that sheds one of the worst defencemen in the league while giving them enough cap space to sign another cheap forward to round out their roster. In return, Pittsburgh gets a second-round pick and a defenceman that will make their team worse and improve their odds at getting Gavin McKenna in next year’s draft. A pretty smart sneak-tank move from the ‘Pens.

Besides the cap space, this pretty much guarantees Nils Lundkvist and Alex Petrovic are on the roster in October with either being the spare seventh defenceman. It also improves the fortunes for any Stars skater that had to skate with Dumba on the ice last season, so a definite addition-by-subtraction situation here. (june11)

3. In yesterday’s (Thursday) Ramblings, we looked at forwards who’ve grossly underperformed their individual expected goal (ixG) rate over the last couple of seasons. Today, we’re sticking with that ixG rate but moving to defencemen. The data is taken from Evolving Hockey and is at all strengths.

Before digging into individual players, remember that in the article yesterday, we showed how forwards tend to under-perform in terms of actual goal scoring compared to their ixG rate. It wasn’t a considerable deviation and it obviously wasn’t applicable to everyone, but the general trend was for forwards to have more expected goals than actual goals.

That isn’t true of defencemen. In fact, in each of the last three pairs of seasons (2021-2023, 2022-2024, 2023-2025), NHL blue liners have had goal-scoring rates around 4-4.5% higher than their expected goal rates. (june11)

[Follow the link for more…]

4. Zac Jones (Buffalo Sabres): To cap things off, Jones didn’t qualify for the cut-off (above) of 800 minutes (just under at 794), but his under-performance did stick out when looking through the data.

He is worth highlighting for a few reasons. The first is his goal rate from 2021-2024 of 0.2 goals per 60 minutes was the same as his expected goal rate. The fact that his goal-scoring was so much worse than his expected goal rate this past campaign doesn’t jive with what he’d done in a limited NHL sample.

The second reason he’s worth including is he turns 25 years old in October. That differentiates him from the rest of the players listed here today, who are all over 30 years old. Jones has over 100 NHL games under his belt, so he has some good experience, and he’s also reaching his prime to start playing up to his potential.

The final reason is he’s no longer with the New York Rangers. Last year, Buffalo defencemen landed 27.8% of the team’s shots compared to 26.5% for New York. There is a slew of left-shot defencemen so Jones has his work cut out for him, but there is potential for a rebound here. He just needs to earn a regular role, which is very much up in the air. (june11)

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5. While Jones (above) was outlined in Friday's Ramblings, here's an example of Thursday's analysis regarding forwards:

Zach Benson (Buffalo Sabres): 50 Cent once told us to Get Rich Or Die Tryin’, and that will be me and Benson in fantasy for the next 3-4 years. He is a guy that I will be constantly drafting, waiting for that breakout to come, because there’s a lot under the hood to like about this player.

One reason to believe is that he has had back-to-back seasons with at least 1.0 expected goals generated per 60 minutes. This is the entire list of forwards since 2007 to skate at least 800 minutes in each of their age-18 and age-19 seasons and produce at least 1.0 expected goals per 60 minutes in each of the two years: Andrei Svechnikov, Auston Matthews, Brady Tkachuk, Connor McDavid, Jeff Skinner, John Tavares, and Taylor Hall. Oh, and Zach Benson, too. (june10)

6. It had been rumoured that Isaac Howard was going to be traded from Tampa Bay and that happened late on Tuesday night as the prospect forward was sent to Edmonton in exchange for prospect forward Sam O’Reilly. Howard then signed a three-year entry-level contract.

This is a good bet for Edmonton. Maybe Howard turns into an impact player, or maybe he doesn’t, but after losing Dylan Holloway, they needed some infusion of youth up front. This helps with that. And going to play with a team with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl may not pay off right away – Howard earning a consistent top-6 role is not likely – but this is great news for his upside 2-3 years down the road. (june10)

[Follow the link for the full analysis…]

7. It’s not fantasy relevant news at this point, but Gavin McKenna choosing to go the NCAA route, and signing to play with Penn State is certainly intriguing and has a lot of ripple effects. He’s going to a program that wasn’t one of the leaders last year, but he now has the opportunity to elevate the entire program, while developing in a more structured environment that allows the players more access to working out in-season, and theoretically better preparing them for their impending NHL debut.

This will have an impact on other players who may decide they are best off by moving through the NCAA ranks. This could have an effect (however small) of reducing the quality of competition in the CHL, and boosting the NCAA level. Maybe something to take into account when evaluating prospects over the next number of years, both anecdotally and through cross-league equivalency numbers. (june9)

8. The Penn State team specifically this year is likely going to have a LOT of eyes on them. It could be a good chance to have a prospect of yours gain some notoriety in the spotlight, and then flip them on a high note at the end of the year, before Gavin McKenna leaves – odds are he’s one-and-done in the NCAA, starting in the NHL in the fall of 2026. Unfortunately, at this time, Penn State doesn’t have a ton of NHL-quality prospects. Recent draftee Jackson Smith is the most notable one, and could really take off quarterbacking an offence led by McKenna. Luke Misa is the next most-notable name, and might be a good early-season stash for much deeper dynasty leagues. In net, there are two relatively young goalies, but it looks like the favourite to be the starter would be Senators draft pick Kevin Reigler, who has some NCAA experience, and at six-foot-six is the bigger of the two 20-year-old goalies. (june9)

9. Heading into Week 2 of the official offseason, there were three key RFA names worth keeping an eye on: Bowen Byram, Mason McTavish, and Cam York. While the risk of offer sheets and all that has started to settle down a bit, the question is whether their respective teams would be giving their players bridge deals or extending them long-term. For York and the Philadelphia Flyers, the answer lay somewhere in between: 5 x $5.15M.

York is coming off a very poor fantasy season with just 17 points in 66 games. He also saw his ice time nerfed by losing nearly two full minutes per game. Maybe things will turn around with a new coach in town, but he doesn’t shoot, he doesn’t hit, and he doesn’t rack up points. There is not a lot here fantasy-wise unless he somehow snakes some top PP time. (June 8)

10. Now that most of the “big” names are off the free agent board, and we have had some time to settle in, I wanted to take this chance to review who I thought the best and worst signings were from a fantasy perspective. That’s a loose definition, and it could mean for the player, the team, or some other version of why they are (or are not) my favourites.

Nikolaj Ehlers (LW) – Carolina Hurricanes: I like this signing because the Hurricanes fit with the kind of system that you want Nik Ehlers to be playing. One with solid transition, lots of shots and offence, plus a balanced approach to the lines. Ehlers has shown he can be productive in limited minutes, but has also had injury troubles. The way to get the best out of him is then likely to bump his minutes a little, but not to overstretch his limits by playing him over 20 minutes a night. Carolina can and will want to do just that, helping him and the team find a new level.

They have Jackson Blake in the top-six who is an easy one to bump down the lineup a little as he grows into a more responsible overall player. From a team perspective, it’s a perfect fit with the identity they have going right now, which is a bonus for fantasy owners hoping Carolina maintains their regular season success, but it might continue to limit them in the postseason. (june9)

11. Maxim Shabanov (LW/RW) – New York Islanders: Every year it seems there’s at least one KHL player who comes over to the NHL, and we have no idea how to value their potential impact. Well, the Islanders have a few key things going for them which could help Shabanov adjust and thrive here. They already have a few other Russians on the team, which will help the transition, and they also have ample opportunity for Shabanov to grab a top-six spot. Jonathan Drouin‘s addition adds another top-six winger, but it’s still not too much to smother Shabanov’s value. If Mathew Barzal can get back to producing like a first-line centre, then the offensive minutes that those couple of smaller offensive players could be sheltered into for the Islanders might be a very high percentage. It will certainly be a different make up than the Islanders teams from the last few years.

Honourable mentions to Niklaus Perbix, Evgenii Dadonov, Andrew Mangiapane

Perbix is another analytics darling who is going to get a larger role, and he’s being paid under $3 million to show that he really is a top-four defenceman. Dadonov is a very cheap contract for a guy who really helps the offence in a middle-six role, and Andrew Mangiapane is exactly the kind of bet EDM should be making on someone that can explode next to Connor McDavid. (june9)

12. Now, onto the bad side of things:

Gustav Nyquist (RW) – Winnipeg Jets

Winnipeg is losing one of their best play-driving forwards and they’re replacing him with a few 35+ signings in Jonathan Toews and Nyquist. As Nyquist is the winger he’s the one that they might look to in order to fill some of those Ehlers-sized holes. Unfortunately, banking on a 36-year-old to regain the form and production they had in their early 30s is usually a losing battle. Giving them more than $3 million to make that bet, is probably not a great option.

Despite being fed over 17 minutes a game for the first three quarters of the season, Nyquist paced for less than 30 points. Playing for a Winnipeg team where he likely won’t be lining up alongside a Ryan O’Reilly and Filip Forsberg-type tandem, another sub-30-point season is likely in the cards.

I also think that the Jets will fall off more than people expect this year. They’re a wildcard team (behind Dallas, Colorado, and Minnesota), and not a division leader. (june9)

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13. Carolina added one impact defenceman with K’Andre Miller and one impact forward in Nikolaj Ehlers. (The fantasy impact of the Miller trade can be found here and the fantasy impact of the Ehlers signing here.)

Even with a trip to the Conference Finals, it’s easy to forget that around this time last year, Carolina seemed headed for a step back. They were coming off three straight seasons with over 110 regular season points while advancing at least to the second round in each campaign. But they lost Jake Guentzel, Stefan Noesen, and Teuvo Teravainen up front and Brady Skjei and Brett Pesce on the blue line. The Hurricanes have re-loaded since then, including Sean Walker, Shayne Gostisbehere, Taylor Hall, Logan Stankoven, and Tyson Jost. Add Miller and Ehlers, plus the emerging Jackson Blake and Alexander Nikishin, and this team is starting to resemble the squad from 2021-2024 that averaged 113 points a year.   

The big question is how all those wingers fit in, because there is a lot of talent on the flanks but only so many roster spots. A friend mused to me wondering if we don’t see one of Seth Jarvis or Stankoven get a crack at being a middle-6 centre. Either way, this team just went to the Conference Final and added a bona fide top-line scoring winger and a top-4 defenceman whose overall performance should improve now that he’s out of a New York Rangers organization that had a Defence: Optional mantra. Things are looking up. (June 8)

14. Trevor Zegras was sent to Philadelphia (fantasy take here) and John Gibson to Detroit (fantasy take here), while Chris Kreider (fantasy take here), Mikael Granlund (fantasy take here), Ryan Poehling, and Petr Mrazek were all added. Assuming McTavish is on the roster again – and that’s not a certainty – their top three lines are set. If Olen Zellweger is the number-4 defenceman, their top two blue-line pairs are set as well.

I mentioned it on Twitter last week, but I think this is the season Anaheim takes the big step forward offensively. Using data from AllThreeZones, the team’s 60-minute rate of scoring chance contributions (all individual chances and all assists on teammate scoring chances) at 5-on-5 has increased each of the last two seasons after bottoming out in 2022-23.

Teams that saw increases in both the 2021-22 and 2022-23 seasons include Detroit, Montreal, Edmonton, Nashville, Philadelphia, and Arizona (now Utah).  In 2023-24, those six teams averaged a 5-on-5 goal-scoring jump of 7.4% compared to their performance across 2021-22 and 2022-23. That is especially impressive when considering the league saw the 5-on-5 goal-scoring rate drop by 2.4%. If we take out those six teams, the decline is even larger. It isn’t a guarantee that Anaheim has a big scoring increase, and they still need to figure out the power play, but the offseason additions of Kreider and Granlund, with more growth from their young core, might see the team add a lot of goals in 2025-26. (June 8)

15. Montreal started addressing the right side of their blue line by adding Alexandre Carrier just before Christmas last year. They couldn’t keep waiting for David Reinbacher to be ready, and the perfect chance for them to snag a top-pair right-handed defenceman came along so they traded for Noah Dobson and subsequently signed him to an eight-year deal with a $9.5M cap hit. Then they traded prospect defenceman Logan Mailloux for Zachary Bolduc, and signed Sammy Blais. Blais is just fourth-line depth, but Dobson should make a big impact, and Bolduc looks to be the heir-apparent to Brendan Gallagher.

While those are all great additions, what might be the biggest impact for Montreal is a healthy Kirby Dach. He had a poor season in 2024-25 before requiring knee surgery, a concern considering he missed nearly all of 2023-24 with a torn ACL and MCL. As for this past season, it’s a wonder how much his knee had actually recovered as his skating metrics from NHL Edge show a big decrease in speed bursts and top speed compared to 2022-23. That he’s coming off another knee surgery leaves a big question mark here. If he can come back, play 75 games, and be the guy he was in 2022-23 for Montreal, he likely has a bigger impact than any of the offseason additions. If he can’t, this team has a glaring hole in the second-line centre role. (June 8)

16. The Ken Holland era is here and the first thing he did was alter the blue line, which is an interesting choice considering the Kings finished with the second-fewest goals against in 2024-25 after giving up the third-fewest in 2023-24. Given the quick playoff exits, though, maybe there’s a method to this madness.

Gone are Vladislav Gavrikov and Jordan Spence, and in come Cody Ceci and Brian Dumoulin. I will be honest: I do not get why general managers love Ceci so much. Among the six regular Edmonton blue liners in Ceci’s three years with the Oilers, he ranked last by 5-on-5 actual goals for/against differential per 60 minutes relative to his teammates, and next-to-last by expected goals for/against differential per 60 minutes.

The actual goals for/against portion got a lot better in 2024-25, but he did that with a 1.028 PDO, or combined save and shooting percentage at 5-on-5. That was the highest mark of his career for any 82-game season. Additionally, and you’re not going to believe this, but that career mark of 1.028 in the regular season crashed to .977 in the playoffs and Dallas got obliterated with him on the ice (8 goals for, 16 goals against). Considering he’s the Spence replacement, and Spence was 1^st and 2^nd among Kings defencemen over the last three years by the two team-relative measures mentioned earlier, this could go south very fast. (June 8)

17. The Toronto side of the Mitch Marner trade is interesting because of the cascading effect on the lineup. (Brennan had his take on the trade/signing here.)

With Marner gone, and Toronto having used a five-forward power play so much after American Thanksgiving last year, it’s a wonder what it does to that power play unit. Do they add someone like Matias Maccelli or Max Domi to replace the playmaking, or do they put Morgan Rielly back on the blue line? Does Maccelli go to skate with Auston Matthews at 5-on-5, or do they move William Nylander up? Is Nicolas Roy now the locked-in third-line centre?

Maccelli is the interesting guy here. He is coming off a down year, but from 2022-2024, he was one of the best playmakers in the NHL. It isn’t hyperbole, either, as he managed 0.57 assists for every goal Arizona scored with him on the ice at 5-on-5. That led the league’s forwards (minimum 1650 minutes, or roughly a top-6 role). It fell off in 2024-25 and it’s partly why he was traded. But with Marner gone, and Maccelli a clear option to replace him next to Matthews, there’s a huge opportunity here. While the Marner trade signals the end of the Core Four era, colour me intrigued to how this team fares with Knies a year older and Maccelli looking for something to prove. (June 8)

[Follow the link for the full analysis with stats…]

18. In today’s Ramblings, we’ll discuss players that could indirectly benefit from recent trades and signings. You’ll notice I said indirectly, so the players below aren’t the ones that signed new contracts or got traded, but the ones staying put that will feel the effects of this summer’s arrivals and departures.   

Cole Perfetti – Winnipeg Jets: This one’s a bit tricky because there’s a fine balance between the opportunities created and lost following Nikolaj Ehlers‘ departure from Winnipeg. On one hand, the spot Ehlers held on PP1 last year is now vacant and Perfetti seems like a logical fit for that role as one of the Jets’ most offensively gifted players. We saw Perfetti take on a bigger role with the man advantage in April while Ehlers was sidelined with an injury, so it makes sense that would be the case again now that Ehlers is gone. On the other hand, though, Ehlers and Perfetti frequently skated together at even strength last year, so Ehlers signing with Carolina also takes a high quality linemate away from Perfetti. Unless Winnipeg breaks up the top line of Mark Scheifele, Kyle Connor and Gabe Vilardi, Perfetti won’t get to work with as much offensive talent at even strength, potentially slotting in beside Gustav Nyquist and one of Jonathan Toews or Vladislav Namestnikov. Still, the power-play gain could be huge as Winnipeg finished with a league-leading 28.9% success rate on the man advantage last season. Perfetti finished with 15 PPPs, which is solid given mostly second-unit deployment. However, top-unit opportunity could help him add another 7-10 PPPs to that total, propelling him towards a 60-point pace in 2025-2026. One important thing to note with Perfetti is that he’s just 23 years old and coming off a 50-point campaign. Not only is there potential for his situation and deployment to improve this season, but he too is improving and developing as a player. That sounds like a recipe for strong fantasy value to me. Check out Mike’s take on the Ehlers’ signing here. (june7)

19. Tomas Hertl – Vegas Golden Knights: This one’s also a bit tricky because Vegas has so many options after acquiring Mitch Marner. Although it’s most likely Hertl benefits from Marner’s arrival, there’s also a small chance that he doesn’t. At even-strength, that small chance would be if Vegas decides to stack the top line with Jack Eichel, Mark Stone and Marner. However, what’s more likely is Stone and Marner being split up on two different lines, giving Hertl access to an elite two-way winger that he didn’t have last year. On the power play, the unlikely, unfavourable scenario would be Marner replacing Hertl on the top unit, but I think it’ll probably be Pavel Dorofeyev or Stone dropping down to PP2. I think there will be a lot of attention on Eichel and Marner in fantasy drafts, allowing Hertl to fly under the radar before he indirectly cashes in on Marner’s arrival. Check out my take on the Marner trade here. (june7)

[Follow the link for Brennan's full list…]

20. Injuries. You know them and you hate them but you can’t avoid them. Even with the absolute best preparation and planning (that you can find right here), injuries can still wreck a fantasy season. They could hit your team in terms of volume with more injuries to non-droppable players than IR slots, the quality of player(s) affected, and even the timing such as during the fantasy playoffs.

Remember that for injury updates, you can check out our article Injury Ward, which we plan to run two times per week this coming season. The Dobber Player News will also provide injury updates as they are announced.

I’ve been tasked with writing injury updates for each team for the Fantasy Guide, as well as providing input on updating Band-Aid Boy status for players on Frozen Tools. Based on what I’ve found, I’ll share some observations on certain teams regarding long and short injury reports as well as high and low numbers of Band-Aid Boys. (june12)

By the way, here’s another friendly reminder that the Fantasy Guide will be available later this month. You can secure yours at the Dobber Shop. Better yet, get it as part of the Keeper League Fantasy Pack or the Ultimate Fantasy Pack, which both include the Prospects Report (which is available now!)

21. Teams with longest injury reports entering the season: Florida, New Jersey, Vegas

For Florida, this is easy to explain. The Panthers are experiencing collateral damage from long Stanley Cup runs for the past three seasons. The playoffs are a war of attrition, and the Panthers can handle the physical element as well as anyone. Although they appear to be on the verge of building a dynasty by getting the band back together in re-signing Sam Bennett, Aaron Ekblad, and Brad Marchand, the strain of playing more hockey than anyone has to catch up at some point. On top of that, the Panthers will probably have a few significant players participating in the midseason Olympic tournament.

I’m especially concerned about the status of Matthew Tkachuk. After the playoffs, Tkachuk mentioned that he had been playing through a torn adductor that was ripped off the bone as well as a sports hernia. Tkachuk suffered those injuries during the 4 Nations, and he did not return until the playoffs. This type of injury requires surgery followed by a 4-6-month recovery, so Tkachuk may not be ready to start the season if that’s the recovery plan. Currently over the salary cap by nearly $3 million, the Panthers could move Tkachuk to LTIR to start the season instead of being forced to trade a player (Evan Rodrigues and his $3 million cap hit have been rumored). (june12)

[Follow the link for more…]

Have a good week, folks!

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