Every Sunday, we share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean, and Dobber

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1. So, now it’s the surprising Canadiens and the defending champion Lightning in the Stanley Cup Final. Who do you like? This might be a tough one to pick. Interested in how many experts believe that the underdog Habs can finish the job? Check out their series predictions and Conn Smythe winners here. 

BTW, there are no more Saturday games scheduled this season. You’ll have to wait until the fall to get your Saturday night hockey fix. When the final isn’t on, it’s time to get out and enjoy the summer. Just do it safely if you’re in the middle of a heat wave like I am where I live. (jun26)

2. Unfortunately, the Brayden Point playoffs goal streak ended at nine games. He falls just one goal shy of Reggie Leach’s all-time record. Still, this is an impressive run for Point. He still leads all playoff goal scorers with 14 goals, six ahead of teammate Alex Killorn, Nathan MacKinnon, and Brad Marchand. (jun26)

3. Don’t put it past the Golden Knights to try to upgrade at center during the offseason (Jack Eichel, anyone?) During the team’s first season, William Karlsson scored an out-of-nowhere 43 goals. Since then, his highest total in 24 goals. He’s a fixture on the Jonathan Marchessault – Reilly Smith line, but not a true No. 1 center. Playing on the top line has provided a huge upgrade for Chandler Stephenson‘s fantasy value, but the fact he is on that top line demonstrates that weakness at what is considered a key position for a team that is focused on winning the Stanley Cup.

Marc-Andre Fleury‘s trade value won’t be sky high for a number of reasons (36 years of age, $7 million cap hit, only one year remaining on contract), but I wonder how efficient it is for the Golden Knights to have $12 million of cap space tied up in goalies. It’s a nice luxury to have if one goalie is injured or struggles, and Fleury’s bounce-back season has been a nice story. Yet I wouldn’t be surprised if the Golden Knights revisit trade talks for Fleury in the offseason.

4. Another player Vegas could consider trading is Alex Tuch. The Golden Knights have plenty of depth on the wing, which often makes Tuch the odd man out from the top 6. He won’t return a number one center on his own, but he could be a key part of a package that could send one to Vegas. Lots of teams should be interested in a 25-year-old 6-4, 220 lb. scorer who can skate like the wind.

If Vegas can’t orchestrate a trade for or signing of a true top-6 center, they will have to give a long look to the promote-from-within model. Maybe that’s where Nicolas Roy and Cody Glass come in, and more long-term Peyton Krebs. (jun26)

5. As for Mark Stone (no points and otherwise a non-factor in the six-game series), I had thought he was injured. Turns out that he was shadowed effectively by Phillip Danault, who probably showed why he deserved more votes for the Selke Trophy. As a Stone keeper owner, I will breathe a sigh of relief that he’s not looking at potential surgery that could cut into the start of his 2020-21 season. (jun26)

6. Yesterday’s Ramblings covered Cole Caufield briefly. The point was to get people thinking about his true upside in the NHL in general, and with the Habs specifically. I want to talk about that for a minute.

Let’s get this out of the way: I think Caufield is a future all-star, and maybe as soon as 2021-22. But as I’ve been talking about for the last couple weeks, coaching matters and so does a player’s role. Let’s talk about Montreal coaching for a minute.

At this point, I have to assume Dominique Ducharme is the coach next year. It’s hard to imagine an interim coach taking a team to (at least) one game from the Cup Final (as of Thursday afternoon) and getting canned. So, what has the ice time been like under Ducharme?

Claude Julien was fired on February 24^th. That gives us about six weeks under Julien and about 10 weeks under Ducharme in the regular season. Under Julien, the only forward playing over 18 minutes a night was Nick Suzuki, and Tyler Toffoli was the only additional forward playing over 17 minutes. Under Ducharme, again, Suzuki was the only forward over 18 minutes with Toffoli over 17 minutes. Both Phillip Danault and Josh Anderson cracked 17 minutes as well but just barely. In other words, the ice time distribution didn’t change much under either coach.

That is what worries me here. Since getting into the lineup in Game 3 vs. Toronto, Caufield is averaging 15:22 in ice time a night. The playoffs aren’t the regular season, but knowing what we know of Ducharme in the regular season, is Caufield going to jump three minutes a game in TOI in four months’ time? Doubtful.  

When it comes to Caufield, I truly believe the sky’s the limit. If it all falls into place, he’s a perennial all-star scorer. But there’s a difference playing 21 minutes a night on Connor McDavid‘s or Brayden Point‘s wing, and playing 16 minutes a night on Nick Suzuki‘s or Jesperi Kotkaniemi‘s wing. It will be interesting to see what the ADP is on him come September, because it may be higher than I’m willing to stomach. (jun25)

7. The Bruins have re-signed Trent Frederic to a two-year contract with a cap hit of $1.05 million. Frederic scored just five points (including four goals) in 42 games in 2020-21, although he led the Bruins with 65 penalty minutes. If he can improve on his 11:15 in icetime, he might evolve into a bangers league option someday. Frederic’s 61 hits wasn’t as high as I thought it would be, although the 23-year-old forward could very well build on that total as well. (jun26)

8. My next several Ramblings are going to be committed to one question I have about each team in the league. This will all be from a fantasy perspective, of course, but I have been thinking a lot about roles, and how they could change. Tied into that is how roles can affect ADP; a player with an uncertain role with a high ADP is always of concern. Here's a couple: 

Oliver Wahlstrom: can he crack the top-6?

This is a very fair question to ask given what’s happened in the playoffs. Though Wahlstrom did seem to get injured at one point, he has been practicing for a couple weeks, so it really seems he’s a healthy scratch for them right now. It is hard to complain with their results so far, but he was third on the team in goals/60 at 5-on-5 this year. He clearly has a scoring touch, but they want a different type of player in his role, and they’re not really having trouble scoring anyway.

The problem here is New York’s entire top-6 is signed for next year save Anthony Beauvillier, and as an RFA he’s almost guaranteed to return. In that sense, Wahlstrom would have to knock one of Eberle or Bailey out of the top-6 to earn a spot. Eberle has been a staple of the top line and the second line has been a great shutdown unit all year.

Barring injury, it’s hard seeing Wahlstrom getting 17 minutes a night consistently. He will still have some fantasy value, but he’ll be nowhere near his ceiling so long as he stays on the third line. (jun24)

9. Is Sam Bennett‘s small-sample performance replicable?

This may be one of the bigger questions across the fantasy hockey community this offseason. If we do believe Bennett can come close to repeating what he did down the stretch in Florida, then we’re looking at a point-per-game player who can post three shots a night and over 100 hits in a season. In multi-cat leagues, that’s close to a first-round pick. That is why it’s really, really important to figure out just how great he can be.

What was sustainable and what wasn’t? First, the shooting percentage.

Ok, so Bennett shot 15.4 percent, and that’s way higher than his career average to that point (about 10 percent). So if we cut his goals rate by a third, he goes from six goals in 10 games to four goals, which paces out for over 30 goals in a full season. That’s still just fine!

Bennett also jumped to nearly 21 shot attempts per 60 minutes. That is high for him, but he has a season over 16 a few years ago. And we have to remember that Florida was one of the most high-octane offenses in the league this year: even before Bennett got there, the team was second in shot rate and 10^th in goal rate. He also jumped right to a line with Jonathan Huberdeau, one of the top offensive wingers in the league. He might not get back to 21 shot attempts/60 next year, but I do believe getting to the high teens is possible, which means his shot rate shouldn’t fall off a cliff, even if it does decline.

We might think the team had unsustainable shot rates with him on the ice, and it was a bit high at 10.75 percent at 5-on-5. But he played with Huberdeau, who, again, is a great playmaker. Even if it comes down to 9-10 percent, they should still score at a very high rate.

I am optimistic here. I am usually on board with fading guys who produce out of nowhere, but all the pieces fell into place for Bennett here. I may be a buyer in September. (jun25)

10. Who will be Dallas’s PP1QB?  

It seems like John Klingberg should have the inside track as he has for years, but Miro Heiskanen did earn some top PP minutes with Klingberg on the roster, especially as the season wore on a bit. Now, the team did split their PP units at times so it can be a bit muddled, but Klingberg should still be the guy here.

I guess the better question is: who needs the role for fantasy value? Heiskanen has played to nearly a 40-point pace over his first three seasons without much top PP time. Heiskanen can be a 40-point guy without the PP time. I’m not sure Klingberg has the same skill set to be a 40-point guy without that same PP time.

The bet is still Klingberg here but this could be a topic of conversation right up until the first puck drop. (jun25)

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IN THE SHOP:

Don’t forget that the Fantasy Prospects Report will be available on July 10! It should be an essential part of your offseason keeper planning. Head over to the Dobber Sports Shop to purchase your copy, or to get it as part of a Keeper League Pack or an Ultimate Pack.

While you wait, you can check out Dave Hall’s mock draft of the first round (picks 1-15) in this week’s The Journey.

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11. I might need to mention a quick mea culpa on Joel Edmundson. I still don’t think the contract is very good, but his defensive play has been largely excellent the entire postseason. I would argue that, defensively speaking, he has been Montreal’s best blue liner. He might not eat all the tough minutes that Weber and Chiarot do, but he always seems to know where to be when he’s on the ice. That is a talent for a defenseman and he’s showing it in spades. A great playoff run from him. (jun24)

12. The best part about bought-out players, is that since they’re already getting paid from their last contract, usually they will take a little less money in order to put themselves in the right situation to either win, or thrive with an eye on rebounding for another, bigger contract. That means, in the short term, they go from over-paid to under-paid, they’re motivated, and they put their fit on the team above most other factors. That makes them ideal fliers for fantasy leagues. Below is one that might be able to up his fantasy value with a buyout this summer. Follow the link for a couple more…

Anthony DeAngelo (D) – New York Rangers
Cap Hit: $4,800,000 until 2022
Buyout Cost: $883,334 until 2023
Projected Cap Hit: $1,097,000

As much as I may not like DeAngelo, he does have the offensive talent to help a fantasy team if he ends up with the right NHL team taking a chance on him (because it’s inevitable somebody will). He’s not one to load up the peripherals, but if you really need power-play points from the backend, he might be the cheapest high-upside option to check in on this offseason in spite of the risk. (jun23)

13. Ever have a feeling in the pit of your stomach that you just *know* something bad is about to happen? Maybe it’s a phone call at an odd time, maybe it’s the way someone looks at you on the street. We just have that instinct that something bad is going to happen.

I got that feeling when looking at Edmonton’s cap situation.

Sitting here today, the Oilers have over $20M in cap space for next year. That is a great thing for a team that has struggled with bad cap hits for years now. But here’s a problem: Tyson Barrie and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins are both UFA, Kailer Yamamoto is RFA, and Oscar Klefbom‘s future is still very muddled. If Klefbom isn’t ready for next year, maybe Ken Holland feels pressured to bring back Barrie, who did put up 48 points in 56 games this year. They probably don’t want to lose RNH either, so if they bring both back, it’s easy to see them tying up over half the cap space this team has available. Throw a couple million a year at Yamo and all of a sudden, the Oilers are at $5M-$6M in cap space with a team that looks very similar to the one that got pasted by the Jets in the playoffs.

So, let’s say the Oilers do this. Let’s say the team signs Barrie and RNH to long(ish)-term contracts and bring Yamo back. Then they go out and give 3x$4M to Mike Hoffman or something like that. Now, this is a team that is basically running back their 2021 roster plus Hoffman (or Nick Foligno, or Anthony Duclair). Now, they’re a team that has the same roster as the one from two months ago, plus someone like Hoffman, with a few million in cap space left. Is that a Cup contender? I am not sure.

That is why I say I have this bad feeling. They still have over $13M a season in commitments to James Neal, Zack Kassian, and Mikko Koskinen. If nothing significant changes, it sure feels like this team will just keep running on their hamster wheel. Hopefully I’m wrong. (jun22)

14. Assuming Dallas goes the 6-3 route for protection, their list has Tyler Seguin, Jamie Benn, and Esa Lindell because they have NMCs. Add Roope Hintz, Denis Gurianov, Joe Pavelski, and someone like Joel Kiviranta, and they have their forwards covered. Add John Klingberg and Miro Heiskanen to Lindell and they have their defensemen. Signing Blake Comeau this past week ensures they can keep their eight core pieces for at least one more year while keeping someone like Kiviranta or Jason Dickinson around. (jun22)

15. Often this past season, I’ve brought up the age of the Sharks. I am far from the only one, but it’s a salient point worth remembering: this is a very old team. Beyond the three defensemen being 31, 34, and 36 for next year, Logan Couture will be 32 and Evander Kane 30. The only member of the “core” under 25 is Timo Meier and he turns 25 in October. Tomas Hertl turns 28 this year, his final year before hitting UFA. That means he’ll be 29 when his next contract starts, and if it’s with San Jose and all those guys are still around, well, add another year to their age.

Without a stream of young guys coming to the league like fellow California teams Los Angeles and Anaheim, this is a franchise on the verge of a very dark period. And it’s not as if this is a team knocking on the door of a Cup like the Sharks teams of 5+ years ago, either. Over the last two regular seasons, the Sharks are 17^th by expected goal share at 5-on-5 and 28^th by points percentage. Here is the kicker out of all this: the only team with a worse actual goal share at 5-on-5 over the last two seasons than San Jose (43.3 percent) is Detroit at 38.7 percent. That’s right: the Sharks have a worse goal share at 5-on-5 over the last two years than Buffalo. Marinate on that for a minute. (jun22)

16. @Burnsy1022 asked: If you were able to make 5 actual NHL trades this summer what would they be? Any team, any player…what would you love to see?

D.D.: I would love to see Toronto trade Mitch Marner for Seth Jones, on the condition that they agree to a six-year deal with Jones beforehand. Columbus gets the 90-point stud and elite setup man they need to take advantage of Oliver Bjorkstrand‘s and/or Patrik Laine‘s tremendous upsides. You can’t put these guys alongside a Boone Jenner and Alex Texier. The domino effect of a Marner would be massive. And for the Leafs, Kyle Dubas rants about his core players…but Jones would be his core player. And Jones is exactly what Toronto lacked in the playoffs. Follow the link for more… (jun21)

17. @DH_newfcollins asked: What currently-drafted prospect who has not yet played in the NHL has seen his stock rise the most this past season?

D.D.: Matthew Boldy. I know he’s already highly regarded, but his impact after turning pro really won me over. Shane Pinto (Ottawa) is another one. And underrated dark horse – Arttu Ruotsalainen (Buffalo). These players and more will be profiled with upside, certainty, wait time and overall outlook in the upcoming (15^th annual) Fantasy Prospects Report. You can pre-order it now, and it’s out July 10. (jun21)

18. @Striker0777 asked: How many players making 5 mil + in cap hit per year are traded this summer?

D.D.: I was surprised to see that 180 players fit this description. Wow – 180 players hit their team’s cap space by at least $5M. And that’s just the ones signed for next year! We still have this year’s crop of free agents to add to that tally…

I think two or three of them are bound to go somewhere new. Especially with Seattle open for business and ready to capitalize on their cap space. I think the Lightning are bound to move Tyler Johnson (three years left at $5M AAV). And that would just get them to the limit! So, Yanni Gourde is probably also going to be moved.

The Islanders need to clear up room to sign Anthony Beauvillier, but the player or players they move to enable them to do this would probably make below $5M AAV… The Sharks need to do something, but their two big defensemen are untradeable (contracts) and their high-money forwards are untouchable. Which leaves just one guy to speculate on, in my opinion: Marc-Edouard Vlasic…. Toronto is in their usual summer spot of stubbornly keeping their high-paid core and shaving off a $3M player or two.

Washington will do something. They need to if they want to keep Alex Ovechkin and re-sign Ilya Samsonov. Which they do. Something will happen. Will it be as much as a $5M+ player? That’s the question. If they do, then it would be Evgeny Kuznetsov, T.J. Oshie or Anthony Mantha. But I suspect they’ll explore the players of lesser importance first, such as Carl Hagelin or Justin Schultz. (jun21)

19. D.D.: (continued) And then there are the popular trade rumors that are everywhere. I think Seth Jones finds a new home somewhere. I think if he agrees in advance to an extension with his future team, then Columbus could get a huge return for him. I’d love to see a move involving Mitch Marner, as I think that would be a great fit for both teams, with them adding fluff and criteria as needed to get it done. But I’d bet a million dollars it never happens because trades that make sense to everyone else on earth never make sense to the NHL GMs… Jack Eichel is also probably on the move. I hope, for Buffalo’s sake, that they get an Eric Lindros-type return for him. They need some good bounces… And while Oliver Ekman-Larsson is being shopped around, he ranks 33^rd in AAV and has six (six!) seasons left. Even if Arizona eats $2M of that, I still think moving him will be difficult.

It’s hard to believe that Jeff Skinner, a player that nobody expects to get 35 points next season, still has six years left on his deal that pays him $9M AAV. This is the biggest player heist since Bobby Holik took the Rangers for a ride after his career year. Skinner picked the right time to score 40 goals and tie his career high in points (63). (jun21)

20. According to Elliotte Friedman, the Coyotes are attempting to trade Oliver Ekman-Larsson again. You may remember that he was on the block last season, when he reportedly would only accept a trade to Vancouver or Boston. This time, the Coyotes will present him with a deal and will ask him if he’ll accept. A team is at a serious negotiating disadvantage if there are only two potential trade partners, so this seems like a better plan.

The Coyotes are already in a difficult position with Ekman-Larsson’s contract (six more years at $8.25 million), so there’s a strong probability they will need to retain part of that in a trade. Analytics also haven’t been kind to him in recent seasons either.

From a fantasy perspective, Ekman-Larsson has been extremely consistent over the past five seasons. Not a top-level fantasy option, but one that is a known commodity. Between 2016-17 and 2020-21, OEL has averaged between 0.45 PTS/GP and 0.54 PTS/GP, which is a pace of between 37 and 45 points each season. In 4D formats, there should be room for that kind of production. The consistent negative plus-minus hurts his value in leagues that count that stat, but that might change with a trade to a better team. (jun20)

21. Your Lady Byng Trophy winner for 2020-21 is Jaccob Slavin, who is just the fourth defenseman in NHL history to win the award. This is clearly the right call, and the voting reflected that, as Slavin was the runaway winner with 827 points. Jared Spurgeon finished second with 223 points, while Auston Matthews finished third with 188 points. See the full results here.

Slavin was assessed just one minor penalty all season, which was a puck over glass penalty. Playing a position such as defense proficiently and not being assessed a physical infraction is the very definition of sportsmanship and gentlemanly play. It may not help your bangers league, but I believe fantasy leagues are trending away from penalty minutes. In the one league I play in that counted penalty minutes this past season, we plan to replace that category with hits and blocked shots next season. (jun20)

Filip Zadina was tied for 35^th in the Lady Byng voting with one second-place vote. If penalty minutes are important criteria for winning this award, then he should have been higher on the list. The Red Wings forward has received just one minor penalty in his 86-game NHL career. Perhaps he will be nominated for the award once he establishes himself more.

Vladimir Tarasenko, who finished tied for 42^nd in voting, has not received a penalty since the 2018-19 season. Mind you, he has played in only a combined 42 regular-season and postseason games over the past two seasons. (jun20)

Have a good week, folks – be safe!!

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