Ramblings: Dahlin next year; Ghost’s Performance; Hughes and Giordano; Tampa Lifts the Cup – July 8
Michael Clifford
2021-07-08
This usually isn't the spot for most trade rumours because most trade rumours are exactly that, just rumours. Sometimes, a respected writer with years of experience states something that they know to basically be fact, and we can't ignore it. We had heard some rumblings this offseason, but it appears that Vladimir Tarasenko has asked for a trade:
What he'll get and where he'll go, we'll see. Whoever gets him is getting an elite winger, though, assuming he's healthy.
*
Game 5 went much the same way as Game 4, where Tampa Bay completely controlled the first period, followed by a big pushback from Montreal in the second period. However, unlike Game 4, Montreal did not finish the second period with a tie game. Rather, Ross Colton finished a nice feed from David Savard to give the Bolts their 1-0 lead. The Tampa blue liner had a wonderful playoffs and though he doesn't have the point totals for a Conn Smythe, he may have been their best defenceman.
Readers will notice I say had, because the Lightning held onto their lead for the rest of the game, winning 1-0 and lifting their second Stanley Cup in as many seasons. It has been a wonderful run for a franchise that spent most of the 2010s being elite but not able to get over the hump. This is truly one of the best franchise runs of the modern era and though they may lose a handful of guys in the offseason, most of this core is returning. They will have to rebuild the depth as guys like Coleman and Goodrow leave, plus whoever else in free agency and in necessary trades for cap purposes. But most of their top-6 and their entire top-4 are all signed for next year, plus Vasilevskiy. This is reminiscent of the Penguins teams of 5-6 years ago, where they just rebuilt their depth around their stars every year. With Tampa's drafting/developing ability, they should be able to swing it.
Oh, and Vasilevskiy took home the Conn Smythe. I thought it should have been Kucherov but this isn't the fight to pick.
I am a Habs fan so I will take a bit more time talking about the team tomorrow.
*
I am continuing my thread from recent articles about asking one major fantasy question from each NHL franchise. We're getting towards the final third of the league today with Buffalo, Calgary, Vancouver, and Philadelphia on tap.
It just so happened that it was all defencemen on the docket here. For anyone waiting for a quick review of players on the back-end, today is your day.
Where should we be drafting Rasmus Dahlin?
It was the worst season of Dahlin's young career, pacing for just 34 points per 82 games after pacing for 49 points per 82 games over his first two years. The big problem was even-strength scoring, as Buffalo was a distant last in goals per 60 minutes at 2.0. The next-closest team was Columbus at 2.2, meaning Buffalo was 10 percent worse than the next-worst team. That is a massive chasm at the bottom of the league, leaving little wonder as to why Dahlin didn't pace for a lot of points.
This is a question that will have a more definitive answer in two months. The fate of Jack Eichel and whether he's traded, or whether he's simply healthy enough to play, is up in the air. That leaves a lot of uncertainty about whether this team will meaningfully improve offensively next year. They will also be in a division with Boston, Tampa Bay, Toronto, Florida, Montreal, and an improved Ottawa team. Even if Buffalo improves somewhat, how big is the impact given who they're playing their bulk of their games against, when factoring in the Metro?
On top of the production concerns are the multi-cat concerns. He could probably put up in the neighbourhood of 125 hits, but has yet to crack 0.9 blocks per game in any season. He has also been hovering around two shots per game, and if the team doesn't improve offensively, it's doubtful that number climbs much.
I guess my question is this: how valuable is a defenceman with seven goals, 35 points, 120 hits, 65 blocks, and 170 shots? Valuable enough to be drafted somewhat highly, but that's nowhere near the upper-echelon of defencemen. This could easily be a situation where the player provides more value to the team in real life than he does to his managers in the fantasy game.
Should we be buying on Shayne Gostisbehere?
I won't go too long on this one because there's a very real possibility that Gostisbehere is not a Philadelphia Flyer in about 2-3 weeks' time. But, for now, let's assume he's back in a Flyers uniform next year. Should we be buying on him?
Asking this also presumes a relatively cheap ADP. Gostisbehere did pick up the slack down the stretch, posting 12 points in his final 20 games, but he didn't have a great season overall. My hope is that fantasy owners remember what he did over the season, and the last couple years, and not the final 20 games of the season.
Looking at his performance over the last three years, there is one area where Ghost really stands out (from Evolving Hockey):
Teams can always use a PP defenceman; just look at Montreal having to dress Erik Gustafsson just to have a decent PP unit. Ghost does have a significant cap hit for a guy playing 19 minutes with PP time, so teams will probably need more out of him than that, or it needs to be a team that is bare on the back end.
Regardless, Ghost showed flashes of skill that brought him a lot of success in the past. I think he can be a positive fantasy contributor again this year. We may have to wait to see where he lands, though.
Does Mark Giordano have one great fantasy season left?
It might seem like a lifetime ago but remember that it was Rasmus Andersson who was Calgary's PP1QB early on in the season. There were some Hanifin and Valimaki games as well, but it was mostly Andersson. Then, not long after Darryl Sutter took over, Giordano regained his top PP role, a role he carried to the end of the season. From the beginning of April through the end of the season, a span of 19 games, Giordano posted three goals, 10 points, 60 shots, 38 blocks, and 20 hits. Pace that out over a full season, we're looking at double-digit goals, over 40 points, over 250 shots, over 160 blocks, and about 90 hits. Those are huge totals for a multi-cat defenceman.
The 2021-22 season is Giordano's last on his current contract. He may only have one season left with Calgary. Can it be a great fantasy season?
It should be noted that, in general, Giordano has lost about two minutes of TOI per game over the last few seasons. Almost all of those minutes came from the power play and even strength, which is real bad production news. On the other hand, he was back up to 24 minutes a night under Sutter, and if that persists to next year, the ice time concerns are gone.
The biggest concern is Giordano's forwards. Despite the shortened 56-game season, no Calgary forward reached 50 points or 20 goals. It is hard to put up 50- or 60-point seasons as a defenceman on a mid-pack scoring team unless you're super elite offensively. We are talking guys like Roman Josi or Quinn Hughes (whom we'll get to later). Other than that, defencemen need high-performing teams, and the Flames weren't that.
When it comes down to it, I think Giordano, at 24 minutes a night and PP1, can be a top-12 multi-cat defenceman. The question, really, is whether his team can rebound to where they were a couple years ago to make that more of a reality than a hope.
What is Quinn Hughes's upside in multi-cat leagues?
I specify multi-cat leagues here because I think Hughes is one of the clearest cases in the difference between points-only leagues and multi-cat leagues. Over the last two seasons, Hughes is tied for fourth in total points per 60 minutes among d-men, behind only Makar, Carlson and Hamilton. In that sense, as long as Hughes plays 23+ a night next season, with similar scoring rates, he almost certainly would be in the top-10 for point scorers among d-men and likely even top-5.
It's everything else that is the concern.
Over his two seasons, these are the multi-cat paces for Hughes, per 82 games: 148 shots, minus-22, 17 hits, and 59 blocks. Those are all terrible numbers, and though plus/minus is random, defencemen who play a lot of minutes on bad teams tend to have bad plus/minus ratings. I guess it depends what readers think Vancouver can be defensively next year. This is two years in a row of poor defensive performance and they're apparently going to lose Nate Schmidt – their best defensive defenceman – in a trade. On the bright side is that the Pacific Division is going to be absolutely trash next year so even a bottom-third team like Vancouver can make playoffs.
For now, I think we should be very reticent to draft Hughes in multi-cat leagues, even ones without plus/minus. A defenceman putting up fewer than one block+hit per game is absolutely pitiful, and without a shot rate to buoy the rest of his value, it's all down to points. If he starts shooting a lot more – a LOT more – it would change the equation. But we have to get to that bridge before we can cross it.
Just be careful about your league settings. Hughes should maybe be one of the first five defencemen off the board in a points-only league, and certainly in the top-10. In multi-cat leagues, he could have difficulty breaking the top-25.