Eastern Edge: Youth Movements and Injuries in the Playoffs

Brennan Des

2021-07-13

In this week's Eastern Edge, we'll discuss fantasy hockey takeaways from this year's playoffs. In particular, we'll focus on youth movements and players that were hindered by injuries.

Youth Movements

Cole Caufield

Before making his NHL debut, Cole Caufield had already established himself as a lethal shooter – someone with a deceptive shot that could score from anywhere. He's lived up to that reputation during his short time in the NHL but also surprised us with his elite playmaking abilities during this year's playoffs. He possesses an elite offensive skillset and I have no doubt he'll be racking up points for years to come. With that being said, I would be careful about drafting him too high in one-year leagues for this upcoming season. As a result of his strong start in the NHL – which has been amplified through extensive media coverage –

people are treating Caufield as if he's already a 40-goal, point-per game player. Sure, he has the potential to be just that, but will it happen next year – when his ice time will still be limited as the Habs roll all four lines evenly?

Alexander Romanov

We didn't see much of the rookie defenseman during the postseason as he suited up for just four games, averaging less than 13 minutes of action when he was in the lineup. Romanov didn't really have an opportunity to raise his fantasy value during the playoffs, but that means you can still acquire him at a reasonable price before his value increases in the coming years. During the playoffs, the Canadiens trusted their top-four defenseman with big minutes and sheltered their bottom pairing. That strategy isn't optimal long term, especially considering the age of their top four. As such, it's likely we see a more even distribution of ice time next year, with a significantly greater role for Alexander Romanov – who has the potential to be a solid multicategory defenseman. We saw glimpses of it during the regular season, as he led all rookies in hits, posting 138 through 54 games. I think there's still some untapped offensive potential which may be developed with an opportunity on the power play. Erik Gustafsson enjoyed some power-play success with the Habs this year, but he's an unrestricted free agent now and the team doesn't seem eager to re-sign such a one-dimensional player. Aside from Jeff Petry, I don't think any of the Canadiens defenseman are capable of running a power-play. I think the team would be wise to take an aging Shea Weber off the second unit so that he's fresh for his even-strength and penalty-killing minutes. That would open up a spot for Romanov on the power play and I think the kid can be more impactful than Weber – or any other one of Montreal's blueliners.

Noah Dobson

Dobson had a decent showing in the 2021 playoffs, tallying seven points through 19 appearances, four of which came with the man advantage. Victor Hedman, Charlie McAvoy and Cale Makar were the only defensemen with more power-play points than Dobson in the postseason. The 21-year-old blueliner managed to produce despite seeing just 40-percent of New York's total power-play time. I'd say his production in a less than ideal situation speaks to his offensive potential, but it's hard to get too excited because there's no guarantee his situation will improve significantly going forward. The Islanders have split time relatively evenly between their two power-play units in previous years and no single defenseman has come away as the number one power-play guy. Dobson will probably continue sharing a PP role with Nick Leddy and Ryan Pulock next season, but hopefully he separates himself from the competition and earns a more prominent PP role at some point in the near future.

Erik Cernak

Tampa has an abundance of excellent defenders, but Cernak really stood out to me during their run this year. Through 21 postseason appearances, he tallied 10 points, 65 hits and 26 blocks. His offensive ceiling is limited because he doesn't have a role on the power-play, but his strong contributions to the hits and blocks categories make him a solid option in multicategory leagues. 

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Players hindered by Injuries

Victor Hedman 

The 30-year-old defenseman was playing with a torn meniscus during the postseason and still managed 18 points in 23 games. While the injury didn't seem to hinder his performance in the playoffs, it did affect his regular season output. He posted 33 points in 34 regular season games prior to March 30th – when he reportedly suffered the injury – and 12 points in 19 games afterwards. He's expected to have surgery on Tuesday, which comes with a recovery timetable of three to four weeks. The sky's the limit when Hedman's healthy and in my opinion, he should still be the first defenseman drafted in most fantasy formats.

Brendan Gallagher 

The Canadiens forward tallied 14 goals in 35 games during the regular season before breaking his thumb and missing the final stretch of the campaign. He didn't look like himself during the playoffs and managed just two goals and four assists through 22 appearances. Coach Dominique Ducharme revealed that Gallagher was dealing with a groin injury and other ailments during the postseason, which likely explains his underwhelming output. As a result of this recent stretch of injuries, I think Gallagher will be undervalued in fantasy leagues heading into next season. There is some uncertainty surrounding the future of his longtime line mates Tomas Tatar and Phillip Danault – who are both in need of contracts for next year. However, Gallagher has proven that he can produce no matter who he's playing with, so I'm confident he'll bounce back next season.

Tyler Toffoli

In his first year with the Canadiens, Toffoli led the team in scoring with 28 goals through 52 regular season games. The offense evaporated significantly during the playoffs as he managed just five goals through 22 playoff appearances. Toffoli didn't look as dangerous during the postseason, but that was likely a result of the groin injury he played through. When discussing Gallagher and Hedman, I hinted that we'd see both players rebound next season as they returned to full health. However, I don't think the same can be said for Toffoli, who may be due for some regression next year. Not only did he enjoy an uncharacteristically high 17.7-percent shooting percentage during the regular season, but 20 of his 28 goals came against the Flames, Canucks and Jets – three Western Conference teams that the Canadiens won't be seeing as often next year, when the schedule is set to go back to normal. Toffoli played beside Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield frequently in 2021, but it wouldn't surprise me if he started next year on a different line, allowing the Canadiens to spread their shooting threats throughout the lineup. Suzuki and Caufield are Montreal's most offensively talented players, so being separated from them would likely hurt Toffoli's fantasy value. He was on pace for 44 goals this season, but 25 to 30 goals seem like a much more reasonable projection for next year.

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