Frozen Tool Forensics: Playoff Deployment Part 4 – The Final Four

Chris Kane

2021-07-16

We have arrived at our final four. We are examining what changed for teams and players during their playoff runs. In Part 1, and Part 2 we were reviewing first round exits. In Part 3 we hit the second round exits. The final four have the largest sample sizes and saw the most success of all the teams in this playoff round. That means this group will have the best data. The only real question remaining here is what will happen to these teams in the offseason.

Just as a reminder from last week: We will be touching on point production, but our main focus will be usage and deployment. We want to answer the question – were players used in a different way during the playoffs that can give us any hints as to how they might be used next season?

To answer this question, we are going to turn to the Time on Ice Reports from the report page. By running and then exporting the same report for both the regular season and the playoffs to date we can get the same data from those two periods. We then combine sources and filter by the team of focus to get an idea of who on each team benefited and who lost out.

New York Islanders

NamePosTeamGPPlayoff %TOIPlayoff TOISeason % TOISeason TOI% Δ
SCOTT MAYFIELDDNYI1734.521:4331.919:292.6
ADAM PELECHDNYI173723:1834.521:032.5
NICK LEDDYDNYI1736.723:0635.421:351.3
OLIVER WAHLSTROMRNYI521.614:3320.312:231.3
ANTHONY BEAUVILLIERLNYI1728.117:4126.916:241.2

In terms of changes in deployment, there aren't as many exciting numbers here on the Island. By and large Scott Mayfield and Adam Pelech aren't really exciting investments. Montreal is also pretty unique in that most of the overall gains for ice time do not overlap with the players who gained power-play time. Anthony Beauvillier, Brock Nelson, and Josh Bailey were the big winners there.

Beauvillier is worth a mention as the highest earner in power-play time, but the news actually isn't all great. His 13 points in 19 games is the best of his career, but he actually saw more than a minute less time on ice (and basically everything he lost was on the power-play) from the 2019-20 playoff season. So basically, while his 2021 playoff deployment was a bit better than his regular season deployment, it was quite a bit worse than his 2019-20 playoff deployment.

NamePosTeamGPPlayoff %TOIPlayoff TOISeason % TOISeason TOI% Δ
NOAH DOBSONDNYI1722.113:5526.916:24-4.8
MATHEW BARZALCNYI1727.617:2230.718:45-3.1
KYLE PALMIERIRNYI1724.715:3527.116:34-2.4
JORDAN EBERLERNYI1725.616:0727.416:45-1.8
TRAVIS ZAJACCNYI1225.515:4126.916:25-1.4

Moving teams did not do much for Kyle Palmieri and Travis Zajac. They both lost time, both at even strength and on the power-play. The only big loss not listed here was with Oliver Wahlstrom who was emerging and took some power-play time during the regular season, but took a backseat with the deadline acquisitions. For this list a lot will depend on offseason movement as we see how the lineups shake out over the summer.

Vegas

NamePosTeamGPPlayoff %TOIPlayoff TOISeason % TOISeason TOI% Δ
KEEGAN KOLESARRVGK1618.511:2015.79:332.8
PATRICK BROWNCVGK1217.710:3815.29:062.5
NICOLAS ROYCVGK1823.214:0821.513:001.7
CHANDLER STEPHENSONCVGK153118:4129.818:061.2
MARK STONERVGK1832.519:4931.419:041.1

A couple of bottom-six forwards clearly got a bump in icetime, but it was likely matchup related as they didn't appear to be really breaking into any prime scoring roles. Chandler Stephenson and Mark Stone saw modest increases in their power-play deployment as well (as we might expect from a top line/power play). An interesting note here is we saw a big jump from Jonathan Marchessault, Alec Martinez, and Reilly Smith. Vegas changed up the power-play a bit, particularly by the end of their run with Marchessault and William Karlsson joining Stone and Pacioretty on the top unit, while Martinez joined Theodore on the second unit with Smith, Stephenson, and Alex Tuch.

NamePosTeamGPPlayoff %TOIPlayoff TOISeason % TOISeason TOI% Δ
BRAYDEN MCNABBDVGK122817:1231.819:18-3.8
TOMAS NOSEKLVGK517.811:1621.513:00-3.7
ZACH WHITECLOUDDVGK1827.917:0229.417:48-1.5
RYAN REAVESRVGK1215.49:2516.49:56-1
ALEX TUCHRVGK182716:2927.716:49-0.7

With basically all of the skill guys in Vegas gaining in some capacity either at even strength or on the power-play it leaves the majority of their "sandpaper" guys holding the bag so to speak. We see decreases almost across the board in the agitators or hits guys. The other big loss here is Nicolas Hague who lost out on a chunk of time on the power-play. He occasionally got looks during the regular season, but with Alex Pietrangelo on the top unit, and Martinez and Theodore on the second, he was the odd man out.

Montreal

NamePosTeamGPPlayoff %TOIPlayoff TOISeason % TOISeason TOI% Δ
BEN CHIAROTDMTL1641.125:1535.821:475.3
JOEL EDMUNDSONDMTL1638.123:2332.920:035.2
SHEA WEBERDMTL164125:1337.322:423.7
PHILLIP DANAULTCMTL1630.818:5627.716:523.1
ARTTURI LEHKONENLMTL1124.815:0722.113:252.7

There are precisely zero surprises here. Buoyed by even strength performance we see a lot of gains for defensive type players who match up well against other teams' top players. If we sort by power-play time we see a different story, with Cole Caufield, Nick Suzuki, and Tyler Toffoli leading the charge. Again, no real surprise there. The biggest change that came during the post season on Montreal was one of the most talked about. The promotion of Cole Caufield, the emergence of Nick Suzuki, and continued rise of Tyler Toffoli. It is hard to find an angle that did not improve for those three during the playoffs and the only question is how high are they taken next season given the hype.

NamePosTeamGPPlayoff %TOIPlayoff TOISeason % TOISeason TOI% Δ
ERIK GUSTAFSSONDMTL1216.110:0027.516:43-11.4
JON MERRILLDMTL921.112:5330.218:15-9.1
ERIC STAALCMTL1518.711:3124.214:43-5.5
JOSH ANDERSONRMTL1623.614:302716:25-3.4
JESPERI KOTKANIEMICMTL1522.213:4224.314:48-2.1

Erik Gustafsson is the exception on this list – as he actually gained some power-play deployment, but he was clearly used only as a specialist as his total ice time cratered. The emergence of that top line was also clearly not good news for Josh Anderson who had some opportunities to line up with Nick Suzuki during the regular season. Anderson still made a splash or two with a couple of big goals, but overall it was a pretty forgettable post season for him. He put up six points in 22 games, and lost a big chunk of ice time.

After a bit of a splash in the first round, Eric Staal disappeared as well. He and Corey Perry seemed to have found a last hurrah from the third line with Staal putting up seven points in his first nine games. One point in the final twelve and losing over three minutes of ice time doesn't leave us optimistic for a return to form though.

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Tampa Bay

NamePosTeamGPPlayoff %TOIPlayoff TOISeason % TOISeason TOI% Δ
BARCLAY GOODROWCT.B1128.317:0525.115:073.2
RYAN MCDONAGHDT.B1637.722:5036.121:541.6
BLAKE COLEMANCT.B1626.716:1025.715:281
YANNI GOURDECT.B1629.117:3628.317:040.8
BRAYDEN POINTCT.B1631.318:5530.618:260.7

First things first. The biggest winner was obviously Nikita Kucherov. Didn't play in the regular season, played a ton in the postseason. Now that that is out of the way…

In terms of overall time on ice, the biggest change we see is more time for the third line. Unfortunately for this group (Barclay Goodrow, Blake Coleman, Yanni Gourde) we aren't seeing any of them step into a new role, just a bit more time with the role they already had. The big winners on the power-play were the top unit. Brayden Point, Steven Stamkos, and Victor Hedman all saw big bumps as Tampa relied more heavily on one unit. Looking at the depth chart we do see one additional change with an audition from Ross Colton. He didn't actually gain any total time on ice, or power-play time, but he did skate with Stamkos and Anthony Cirelli by the end.

NamePosTeamGPPlayoff %TOIPlayoff TOISeason % TOISeason TOI% Δ
DAVID SAVARDDT.B1323.414:0732.719:51-9.3
TYLER JOHNSONCT.B1616.710:0622.713:41-6
STEVEN STAMKOSCT.B1626.215:5230.218:16-4
PAT MAROONLT.B1615.69:2519.211:36-3.6
JAN RUTTADT.B1623.414:0926.516:02-3.1

With the Goodrow line seeing increased time it isn't really a surprise to see Tyler Johnson and Pat Maroon listed here. It is a bit of a surprise to see Stamkos, who saw a large bump in power-play share to have lost out on time on ice overall. That line with Stamkos, Colton, and Cirelli clearly wasn't used in the same way that the Kucherov, Brayden Point, and Ondrej Palat were. It doesn't really bode well for Stamkos to be playing less than 16 minutes a night. The last time that happened in the course of a regular season or playoff run (where he wasn't hurt) was 2008-09, his rookie season. At 31, and with his injury history, it maybe he is sliding into more of a power-play specialist role. He did have a larger role during the regular season, but it was still his lowest average ice time (in a season where he played at least 20 games) since that rookie year. 2021 also represents just the third time in his career where his point pace dropped below 90. It is definitely something that bears watching going into next season. 

That's all for now. Stay safe out there.

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