Ramblings: Final 2021 Free Agent Salary Projections & Seattle Kraken Mocks (Jul 21)

Alexander MacLean

2021-07-21

The contract projections are further down the page, but in the meantime I'm going to go over my Seattle thoughts before all of this is outdated in less than a day. I made a prior run-through a couple months ago, but a few things have changed since then. My selection list (without any side deals taken into account) looks like this:

Opening night roster sketch:

Zucker – Gourde – Bailey

Domi – Kerfoot – Appleton

Jarnkrok – Compher – Donato

Gadjovich – Blackwell – Gaudette

Merkley

Gostisbehere – Stetcher

Bean – Dunn

Soucy – Borgen

Clague

Driedger

Vanacek

The rest are in the minors, IR or flipped for picks: Phillips, Klefbom, Kulak, Lyubushkin, Larsson, Lauzon, Hanley, Daccord.

Some of the reasoning behind these picks may not even become clear for a few weeks until future players are traded and/or signed. In a weak Pacific division, this type of roster could make some noise.

While we wait, who thinks this video is real, and who thinks it’s a diversion? Count me among those convinced the pick is indeed going to be Kerfoot.

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I look at a lot of the other selection sets that people are making for the Kraken, and while I can appreciate that there are different opinions than mine on who the best picks are, there are some fundamental mistakes being made, and both of these mistakes have fantasy world lessons to be learned from them:

Lesson #1: Opportunity Cost

Carey Price is the best goalie exposed talent-wise, it's tough to argue against that. However, (injury aside) he won't get selected because there are more economical options, and there are teams with less to offer Seattle where they can grab their goalies instead. Teams like Ottawa, Vancouver, and Dallas have almost nothing to offer Seattle. It would shock me not to see at least one goalie taken from these three teams. With Chris Driedger rumoured to be signing in Seattle, getting a pick to take Ben Bishop or Braden Holtby as the future backup goalie, and then nabbing Joey Daccord or Marcus Hogberg to man the net in the AHL is a very realistic option. That can be weighed against the assets Seattle can also accumulate not to take Vitek Vanecek and Kaapo Kahkonen where they instead end up with Brendan Dillon and Carson Soucy instead of Josh Brown and Joel Hanley.

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Making a selection isn't just picking the one player, but it has to be weighted against who or what that player prevents you from doing. In the same vein, for fantasy hockey, when you're making a two for one trade you also have to consider who you would be able to drop/add, and make that part of the equation. When looking at Seattle selections or fantasy hockey trades, many get stuck on the surface with the initial name and don't consider the depth of the repercussions that the decision will make.

Lesson #2: Knowing the Market

The first thing I look at when people post their expansion lists is how many forwards, defencemen, and goalies they select. If there aren't at least eleven defencemen on the list then I immediately discount it as a set of selections from someone that didn't really think things through. Vegas took their minimum forwards and minimum goalies, and the rest of their selections were defencemen. They had the most success flipping defencemen, and I expect Seattle to do something very similar, as defencemen are always in high demand.

In fantasy leagues, it is key to know what positions are sought-after and what age range can typically fetch you the biggest return in a trade. When you're drafting for a roto league with set limits on games played numbers, your bench players typically don't rotate in much. However, in order to hit the limits on goaltender games, you will need bench goalies. Typically, in a roto draft where there are 20 active players and five bench, I will grab three extra goalies for my bench, as I know I will need them a lot later, and they end up becoming very scarce very quickly. Know your league, know your market, and don’t bother filling up on pieces that you know in the back of your head you are never going to use.

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Mike touched on it yesterday, but I wanted to reiterate that the NHL and its minors ranks are a better place to be now thanks to Luke Prokop paving the way as the first openly gay player under an NHL contract. Hopefully more players feel comfortable speaking their own truths moving forward. It is wonderful to see.

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Looking for something to listen to in order to fill the fantasy hockey void? The guys over at KeepingKarlsson have you covered with their 32 beats series, bringing beat writers from all 32 teams onto the podcast to dive as deep as only they can into how all the pieces are going to fit together. 

They have seven episodes completed thus far, and will be continuing throughout the offseason.

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In addition to diving into the one-way contracts for the DobberHockey Fantasy Guide, this year I'm also going to be covering the "Goalies to Watch" section. Anyone that you think I should be paying extra attention to? If so, let me know in the comments!

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Katie Strang did another amazing job covering Logan Mailloux, his mistakes, and the fallout. He has renounced himself from the 2021 NHL draft.

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I've updated the 2021 Free Agent Contract Projections just in time for free agency to open next week. Feel free to either drop comments on it here, or find me on Twitter @alexdmaclean.

RankNameAgePos Projected Cap Hit
1Dougie Hamilton28D $9,779,100
2Cale Makar22D $9,578,900
3Philipp Grubauer29G $8,744,800
4Gabriel Landeskog28F $8,557,700
5Andrei Svechnikov21F $7,524,100
6Alex Ovechkin35F $7,453,700
7Quinn Hughes21D $7,282,400
8Sam Reinhart25F $7,113,000
9Taylor Hall29F $6,732,200
10Kirill Kaprizov24F $6,687,000
11Juuse Saros26G $6,369,000
12Elias Pettersson22F $5,906,700
13Igor Shesterkin25G $5,851,400
14Pavel Buchnevich26F $5,827,800
15Alec Martinez33D $5,485,300
16Patrik Laine23F $5,478,800
17Neal Pionk25D $5,424,200
18Sam Bennett25F $5,019,100
19Rasmus Dahlin21D $5,014,300
20Kevin Fiala24F $4,994,000
21Tyson Barrie29D $4,903,100
22Zach Hyman29F $4,860,100
23Tuukka Rask34G $4,768,900
24David Krejci35F $4,685,700
25Conor Garland25F $4,643,800
26Andrew Copp27F $4,632,400
27Jakub Vrana25F $4,569,900
28Mikael Granlund29F $4,475,400
29Brady Tkachuk21F $4,414,500
30Phillip Danault28F $4,340,700
31Brandon Saad28F $4,231,700
32David Savard30D $4,049,800
33Adam Pelech26D $3,990,900
34Mike Hoffman31F $3,858,900
35Jaden Schwartz29F $3,837,200
36Blake Coleman29F $3,767,800
37Dante Fabbro23D $3,724,900
38Kyle Palmieri30F $3,706,000
39Linus Ullmark27G $3,425,100
40Anthony Beauvillier24F $3,421,900
41Frederik Andersen31G $3,411,900
42Tomas Tatar30F $3,310,200
43Adam Larsson28D $3,307,600
44Barclay Goodrow28F $3,281,800
45Ilya Samsonov24G $3,281,200
46Ryan Suter36D $3,259,100
47Jamie Oleksiak28D $3,243,900
48Nick Bonino33F $3,163,100
49Vince Dunn24D $3,147,900
50Travis Sanheim25D $3,123,200
51Alex Nedeljkovic25G $3,116,800
52Paul Stastny35F $3,107,600
53Jesperi Kotkaniemi22F $3,098,800
54Robert Thomas22F $3,098,400
55Nick Ritchie25F $3,079,700
56Brandon Montour27D $3,066,700
57Kailer Yamamoto22F $3,054,600
58Chris Driedger27G $2,952,600
59Jordan Kyrou23F $2,845,600
60Dillon Dube22F $2,789,400
61Brock McGinn27F $2,771,000
62Mattias Janmark28F $2,765,000
63Drake Batherson23F $2,738,300
64Nikita Zadorov26D $2,714,800
65Jonathan Bernier32G $2,708,200
66Filip Hronek23D $2,682,700
67Janne Kuokkanen23F $2,670,300
68Ilya Sorokin25G $2,594,000
69Joel Armia28F $2,589,400
70Juuso Valimaki22D $2,573,100
71Alexander Edler35D $2,561,200
72Warren Foegele25F $2,527,200
73Mike Reilly28D $2,521,200
74Eeli Tolvanen22F $2,507,200
75Nick Foligno33F $2,506,400
76Cody Ceci27D $2,499,700
77Casey Mittelstadt22F $2,494,700
78Andreas Athanasiou26F $2,489,800
79Max Comtois22F $2,437,300
80Ryan Donato25F $2,422,300
81Ryan Murray27D $2,353,900
82Filip Chytil21F $2,353,700
83Petr Mrazek29G $2,345,300
84Tyler Bertuzzi26F $2,343,800
85Alex Goligoski35D $2,303,100
86Jake Bean22D $2,300,700
87Carter Hart22G $2,208,300
88Yegor Sharangovich23F $2,180,600
89Casey Cizikas30F $2,179,700
90Zach Sanford26F $2,157,800
91Erik Haula30F $2,133,600
92Alexander Wennberg26F $2,087,000
93Sami Vatanen30D $2,068,800
94Jason Dickinson26F $2,048,000
95Rudolfs Balcers24F $2,047,500
96Alexandre Texier21F $2,035,300
97Nolan Patrick22F $1,991,700
98Keith Yandle34D $1,979,900
99Derek Forbort29D $1,975,800
100Victor Mete23D $1,969,900
101Jaroslav Halak36G $1,956,400
102Luke Glendening32F $1,856,400
103Carl Grundstrom23F $1,810,500
104Pius Suter25F $1,808,200
105Ryan Getzlaf36F $1,788,600
106Adam Erne26F $1,771,100
107Antti Raanta32G $1,759,000
108Zach Aston-Reese26F $1,752,900
109Michael Rasmussen22F $1,735,200
110Max Jones23F $1,717,700
111Sam Steel23F $1,709,800
112James Reimer33G $1,684,300
113Mathieu Perreault33F $1,632,800
114Artturi Lehkonen26F $1,605,600
115Adam Gaudette24F $1,584,400
116Brandon Hagel22F $1,576,800
117Bobby Ryan34F $1,575,900
118Tomas Nosek28F $1,560,200
119Danton Heinen26F $1,558,300
120Christian Djoos26D $1,545,000
121Ian Cole32D $1,535,200
122Tucker Poolman28D $1,519,500
123Trevor Moore26F $1,518,700
124Conor Timmins22D $1,484,500
125Michael Del Zotto31D $1,479,700
126Ondrej Kase25F $1,469,400
127Jordan Oesterle29D $1,468,800
128Isac Lundestrom21F $1,467,000
129Mike Smith39G $1,466,500
130Jordan Martinook28F $1,451,500
131Ivan Barbashev25F $1,432,100
132Ross Colton24F $1,411,800
133Derick Brassard33F $1,408,400
134Tyler Bozak35F $1,382,000
135Marcus Johansson30F $1,377,000
136Libor Hajek23D $1,367,100
137Riley Nash32F $1,351,600
138Tyson Jost23F $1,346,100
139Eric Staal36F$1,331,200
140Callan Foote22D $1,324,700
141Erik Gustafsson29D $1,323,000
142Adin Hill25G $1,315,300
143Logan Stanley23D $1,303,600
144Devan Dubnyk35G $1,255,400
145Alex Chiasson30F $1,250,300
146Travis Hamonic30D $1,196,000
147Mark Jankowski26F $1,194,500
148Joel Kiviranta25F $1,191,400
149Travis Boyd27F $1,167,700
150Morgan Geekie22F $1,161,400
151Sam Gagner31F $1,158,400
152Brian Elliott36G $1,153,600
153Michael Bunting25F $1,152,500
154Nicholas Merkley24F $1,143,300
155Travis Zajac36F $1,127,800
156Julien Gauthier23F $1,114,800
157Keegan Kolesar24F $1,070,100
158Evan Rodrigues27F $1,067,800
159Alex Galchenyuk27F $1,066,500
160Kale Clague23D $1,064,800
161Mikko Lehtonen27D $1,057,700
162Zach Parise36F $1,051,700
163David Rittich28G $1,051,100
164Mikhail Grigorenko27F $1,021,300
165Olli Juolevi23D $1,005,000
166Brandon Sutter32F $1,001,200
167Jujhar Khaira26F $993,200
168Rasmus Asplund23F $986,300
169Jordie Benn33D $985,400
170Zdeno Chara44D $984,600
171Filip Gustavsson23G $957,500
172Josh Mahura23D $954,600
173Laurent Brossoit28G $946,600
174Alexander Nylander23F$945,900
175Dominik Kahun26F $940,900
176Zach Bogosian31D $910,800
177Pierre-Edouard Bellemare36F $898,100
178Ryan Dzingel29F $885,400
179Evgeny Svechnikov24F $853,600
180Vinnie Hinostroza27F $838,800
181Lias Andersson22F $829,700
182Tanner Jeannot24F $821,800
183Noah Gregor22F $790,900
184Marc Staal34D $780,800
185Jayce Hawryluk25F $776,000
186Dennis Cholowski23D $774,900
187Kyle Clifford30F $766,100
188Logan Brown23F $761,100
189Derek Ryan34F $759,600
190Michael Raffl32F $756,900
191Alex Barre-Boulet24F $750,000
192Henri Jokiharju22D $750,000
193Kieffer Bellows23F $750,000
194Joe Thornton42F $750,000
195Corey Perry32F $750,000
196Michael Dal Colle25F $750,000
197David Kampf26F$750,000
198Nikita Gusev29F $750,000
199Michael Amadio25F $750,000
200Kevin Roy28F $750,000

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