A lot going on in the hockey world, and a lot going on with DobberHockey. I have a ton to say, so much so that normally I would have posted a separate article. But after posting the Fantasy Prospects Report recently, I had to dive straight into the Fantasy Guide. The Guide is out August 14, which is a very fast turnaround (fastest ever). Since I can't project anything until after July 28 (because free agency opens), all I can do in advance is study and analyze last season. So that's what I've been pouring my time into over the past week. Pounding at this to make sure it gets done by that August 14 date, we're talking 65-plus hours per week!

By the way, I just re-uploaded an update for the Fantasy Prospects Report. In it, I put in all the teams for the draftees and when they were taken – with links for easy navigation. Simply re-upload the FPR to get the updated version.

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And as always, because I am the king of getting distracted, whenever I am at my busiest I am also more active on Twitter so be sure to follow me there. I tend to post little tidbits and discoveries as I find things.

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Last week I did a Mock expansion draft for myself (which is the best team – far better than how reality ended up) and I did one that I thought Seattle would do. For Seattle's team I ended up getting seven players correct – and zero prospects and draft pick predictions correct. The latter was because… Ron Francis didn't do any trades!

I like Ronny Franchise. I had him as a player in both my dynasties, albeit towards the end of his career (I think he ended up retiring on both my teams). But nothing but respect for him as a player. But what is he doing as a general manager? My guess is that he set a price on staying away from certain players. From many sources, he reportedly raised the price on what Vegas charged. Judging by what happened – those reports are true. Let's go over what he did wrong here:

1. Francis raised the price when all the GMs were pretty vocal about being more conservative this time around. Not smart. He played a game of chicken and he lost.
2. Rather than bringing his price down and getting what he could, he held firm. Presumably this is because he wanted to set the tone for future dealings. He will not be taken advantage of. What he says, he means. Period. Why is this wrong? Well, he can worry about setting that tone after the draft. For the draft itself – take what you can get. Maximize assets for the team now, worry about "tone" and reputation later. He needed to come away from this draft with extra picks and prospects in his pocket. Later, as GMs talk to him thinking he's a pushover for caving at the expansion draft, he can play hardball at that point.
3. Select your expansion team based on asset value. Then trade your strengths to fill your needs. It felt as if he did the expansion draft as if that was the team he wanted to ice tomorrow.

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Now let's look at his Top 5 mistakes so far. I would do a Top 5 great moves list for him too, to balance it out. But I can't say he did anything brilliant yet.

I'm just looking over the #LAKings and I still don't get it.
I'm at a loss.
Can anyone – anyone – help?#Stumped#SeaKraken pic.twitter.com/092sXekQxF

— Dobber (@DobberHockey) July 23, 2021

1. Kurtis MacDermid? I had people float the theory that Francis is good friends with MacDermid's dad. Honestly, if that was the reason then why does Francis have a job? But even if that's an acceptable way to run a business, he truly could have claimed him off waivers in October. MacDermid was a healthy scratch 27 times last year. Not because he's a young prospect still learning – he's 27. But because he wasn't good enough to play on the 25^th best team. To overlook a top prospect like Kale Clague to grab a press-box sitter is nonsensical. Was he doing buddy Rob Blake a favor? Come on, this is a business.
2. John Quenneville? I don't get this one. Perhaps Seattle's scouts say that he's a good one. Chicago scouts said that two, a couple of years ago. He's 25 now, and holds little trade value. So right now he's a Dylan Sikura in terms of value. He may help your team, he likely won't, and he wouldn't get a late pick in a trade. Whereas Adam Gaudette can do all of those things.
3. Not taking Kaapo Kahkonen. I get that this was a Vitek Vanecek/Carson Soucy versus Kahkonen/Brendan Dillon decision. I understand that. And sure, Francis obviously feels that Vanecek/Soucy are better. But what does it have to be that way? Why not Vanecek/Kahkonen? And then flip one later? Remember, Vegas traded Calvin Pickard to Toronto – Kahkonen/Vanecek are both much better than Pickard was. Wasted potential assets again.
4. Drafting Ryker Evans 35^th overall. Most lists had him closer to 100 or later. Why not wait until 67 to take him?
5. Morgan Geekie over Jake Bean. I understand that Francis drafted Geekie in Carolina. I get it. But Bean is the superior asset. Puck-moving defensemen are super-valuable. You just saw Jake Bean land Carolina a second-round draft pick. Geekie couldn't garner that in a trade, no way. So pick Bean, trade him away for a second (if you don't like him) and then offer a third or a fourth to Carolina for Geekie if you want him so badly.

Bonus mistake – just the general idea of walking away from deals to lay off players because they wouldn't meet your price. Huge, huge mistake. And costly. This franchise cost nearly a billion dollars of ownership's money, and they want their GM making these massive mistakes? Why entrust such a valuable business to a former player, an ex-jock, with so little management and business experience? He was a GM for, like, three years and an assistant GM/Director of Hockey Operations for a couple more… and that's enough to hire to run a billion-dollar business?

This is actually a team that can be coached into being competitive. Not playoffs-competitive, but with their goaltending and defense, they can keep it close. And if any of their forwards pull a Karlsson/Marchessault (see below) then scoring will be there. But that's all they'll be. On the cusp. Never getting better. With Vegas, they had tons of prospects and picks that they used to swap into 'win now' assets. They were not only competitive but they stayed that way and in fact got even better – with enough in the pipeline to maintain it for years. Seattle is built to finish 17^th to 23^rd range… and never improve on that. Six years from now, ownership will finally see this and make management changes. Mark it.

I could go on, but I have other things I want to write about.

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Dobber for GM!

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The first two picks of the draft (Owen Power and Matthew Beniers)…

I see this so far as:
1. Erik Johnson
2. Sean Couturier
For #FantasyHockey comparisons

— Dobber (@DobberHockey) July 24, 2021

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What I like about a swing for the fence pick like Kent Johnson is when he's picked that high, the organization will do everything they can to ensure that he's a boom and not a bust. He'll be their top priority, top focus. Need to make it work #CBJ

— Dobber (@DobberHockey) July 24, 2021

Regarding this, I was reminded of Nikita Filatov, but to me that proves my point. Filatov failed – but not for lack of franchise investment. They pushed to make him a star, and it didn't work out.

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Love this…

Amazing that #SeaKraken draft Cale and Haydn Fleury#Blackhawks trade for Seth and Caleb Jones#Blackhawks draft Colton Dach to join Kirby#NJDevils draft Luke Hughes to join Jack
All in the last couple days#HockeyTwitter

— Dobber (@DobberHockey) July 24, 2021

… and Arizona drafted Shane Doan's son – Josh! Later I find that Colorado drafts Cale Makar’s brother in the seventh round (Taylor Makar).

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For my dynasty draft, I don't plan on drafting anyone from this year's NHL draft. It's a deep 15-team league, keep everybody, 34-player rosters. I doubt Luke Hughes gets to me for the 10^th pick. And to be honest, there is no other player I would take in that spot. With my picks at 25 and 30 I'd take William Eklund or Matthew Beniers, but I doubt either would fall there. I'd consider Owen Power in the final round, but again – he'll be gone. And that's it. I generally don't grab 18-year-olds to begin with, but this year especially I plan to steer clear. There are always players from last year's draft still hanging around who are closer (one less year to wait), and a few 20- and 21-year-olds that are appealing with upside. Every year the latest draftees get all the hype, and my league trips over each other trying to draft them. That works out great for me, as my older players then slide. I'm counting on it this year more than other years!

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2021 NHL Draft Notes:

82 Canadians, 50 Americans, 29 Russians, 24 Swedes, 14 Finns were the top draftees by country.

81 defensemen, 53 centermen, 35 left wings, 33 right wings and 21 goalies were taken.

WHL led all leagues with 32 players drafted, followed 26 from the OHL and 24 from the QMJHL.

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So who has the best shot at becoming this year's William Karlsson on Seattle? This year's Jonathan Marchessault? Let's breakdown my odds…

Karlsson – buried on a team with minimal ice time, has some talent but if he ever exploded for 70 points you'd be completely shocked. Well, Karlsson did that in the first year for the Golden Knights. Here are Seattle's candidates for that:

1. Jared McCann – now entering his prime and coming off a career-high points-per-game average of 0.74 (i.e. a 61-point pace). McCann was boosted by nine PPPts on the first unit with Evgeni Malkin injured. But all of his even-strength points were playing on the third line. Every year he plays third-line minutes, and now he finally gets that first-line shot. He wouldn't get that on any other team. Dobber's odds: 50%
2. Calle Jarnkrok – Jarnkrok has lower odds because he'll be 30 in the fall and his range for production is pretty established. But the fact is, his last two seasons have been his most productive, with last season's 47-point pace his highest yet. He did it with 16:48 per game of ice time and 1:37 of PP time. How would he do with 18 minutes and 2:30? Dobber's odds: 25%
3. Mason Appleton – I'm a fan. Now entering his prime, Appleton is constantly over-achieving. He was drafted 168^th overall and started for Michigan State. As an AHL rookie he made a huge splash with 66 points in 76 games. In 2018-19 he kinda forced his way onto the Winnipeg roster even though they didn't really have room for him. He made it happen. But no matter how much he overachieved, he wasn't going to crack Winnipeg's top six. On Seattle this can happen easily. Dobber's odds: 15%
4. Joonas Donskoi – The 29-year-old is coming off his most productive season (50-point pace). However, he was sheltered and did not do well possession-wise. I can see him having a hot start since he did that each of the last two years with Colorado. But I suspect it will tail off as the team asks more of him. In a sense, he could also be a "Marchessault" (but taller) so I have him in both categories. Dobber's odds: 10%

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Marchessault – was buried on a team with minimal ice time because he's a smaller player, surprised for one season on a new team with good production. But he still had another gear and he found that gear after joining Vegas. Here are Seattle's candidates for that:

1. Colin Blackwell – A 28-year-old late bloomer, but that's how it often happens with 5-8 players. His college numbers were ho-hum. His AHL numbers were ho-hum. And then suddenly he figured it out in 2019-20 getting 23 points in 26 games for Milwaukee and getting into some NHL games and making his mark. Last year he won a job with the Rangers, eventually making it so that they couldn't scratch him, and moving quickly up the depth chart. He had 22 points in 47 games. A real wild card. At one juncture he had 12 points in 12 games. Dobber's odds: 45%
2. Yanni Gourde – The 5-9 Gourde is probably everyone's favorite for this year's Marchessault – and for good reason. He once had 64 points and then started 2018-19 with 20 points in 20 games. His play tailed off after signing the big contract, and eventually he found a niche as a checker. However, on that checking line he started teasing with his offensive talent again, almost as if he rediscovered it. What counts against him is that he can check. He can check ver, very well. He can chip in solid production while checking. Blackwell can't do those things, so Blackwell can offer one thing and that's offense. Gourde can offer multiple things, and that may be why he is on a second or third line. Dobber's odds: 40%
3. Joonas Donskoi – He's somewhat proven, as Marchessault was. I don't believe Donskoi has Marchessault's upside, but at the same time Donskoi has never been let loose before and given prime minutes. A top-five scorer in Liiga back in 2014-15. Dobber's odds: 15%

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And for all the above, I am going to assume that Jordan Eberle plays the role of Reilly Smith. So my favorite 'top line production' trio is Eberle, McCann and Blackwell. Which leaves Gourde as Seattle's version of David Perron.

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See you next Monday.