Ramblings: Wrapping Up Free Agent Frenzy

Michael Clifford

2021-07-29

We truly had ourselves a Free Agent Frenzy, didn't we? Last year didn't see much player movement while this year it didn't seem to slow down for about the first six hours. Myself, Dobber, and Ian were around for the day giving out our instant analysis on the signings (and trades!) that went down. They can all be viewed here.

I didn't get to chime in on a lot of the signings because there were three of us so I thought this would be the perfect time for the rest. There isn't much need to go deeper on the guys I've already covered, as I'll just talk about them at a later date in depth. I just want some quick hits on the more notable ones that I didn't specifically write about.

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Oh, except one thing. What about Detroit's top-6? I wrote about Pius Suter but didn't write about their lineup. For the first time in several years, they could have two competent scoring lines, and maybe even a semblance of a third line? What about…

Vrana-Larkin-Zadina

Bertuzzi-Suter-Fabbri

Namestnikov-Rasmussen-Erne

That isn't… terrible? Not-terrible is a step forward for the Wings, and that actually looks like a decent top-6 to me. At least one that can threaten to score every time it steps on the ice. And if Raymond shows up, that's a whole other dimension.

I like the direction the team is going here. Lots of good, young players all over the place. Give them time, but it seems on the right track.

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When I heard the Dougie Hamilton-to-New-Jersey rumours, I didn't quite believe them. This was a team that still seemed far away from doing anything and they didn't need a big-ticket free agent right now.

On the other hand, they now have a healthy Nico Hischier to play behind Jack Hughes, who is turning into an elite centre as we speak. Yegor Sharangovich showed promise, Alexander Holtz is on the way, and they've completely revamped the blue line. They're two top-6 forwards away from a competent top-6, and that's all Dougie and that blue line needs to be a dangerous team.

They aren't there yet, though, so this isn't immediately great news for Hamilton. Carolina scored 3.1 goals per 60 minutes last year and New Jersey was at 2.6. That may not change a whole lot this year, so the environment is worse for Hamilton. His only hope is more ice time, which isn't a certainty. He will still be very good, maybe just not super-elite right away.  

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The trade of Evgenii Dadonov perked me up a little bit. There have been rumours that Jack Eichel could be on his way and that at least one current winger on the Vegas roster is going back. Whether Smith or Marchessault, it leaves them thin on the wings in the bottom-6. If they only lose one guy, they can still have someone like Marchessault or Dadonov in the bottom-6 to help balance the scoring some more.

His problem is exactly that role: the third-line role. It could be him, or Alex Tuch, or Marchessault, but if only one winger is traded, one of them is going to the third line. Even with some PP time, that puts 18 minutes a night out of range for that player. It can alter that outlook quite a bit.

If it's him, it may not help his fantasy outlook a lot. If he does get to the second line, he could be a steal in fantasy drafts. I still believe in his talent as both a scorer and playmaker. (For the record, he was above-average in zone entries with possession despite some other struggles this past season.)

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Speaking of Vegas, it's nice to see Sven Baertschi get another chance in the NHL. I am betting he does something with it. Let's take a trip down memory lane.

New hockey fans may not even know who he is and those who've been around for a while may not remember how good he is. He has only played 35 games over the last three seasons, so you're forgiven for overlooking him.

From 2015-18, Baertschi scored 15, 18, and 14 goals. That may not seem great, but he did that playing just 14:55 a night. Oh, and Vancouver was the lowest-scoring team in the league in that span. When you're worse than Buffalo at anything other than being bad, you know things are going wrong.

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Anyway, he averaged a goal every 60 minutes of ice time at all strengths in that span. That led the team (truly), and it was borderline first-line goal scoring. Again, not hyperbole: he was 84th out of 302 forwards with 2000 minutes at all strengths in those seasons. That is the 78th percentile, or borderline first-line status. A remarkable feat for a young player on a very bad team.

His concussion history is the ongoing concern. He has to stay healthy and feel like he can play to his level on the ice. If that can happen, Baertschi is a sneaky 20-goal scorer this year. He may not bring a lot across the table, but put a little mark beside his name in deeper formats. He is a guy I'm targeting past the 30th round.

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Jaden Schwartz heading to Seattle is interesting. He was hurt a fair bit last year but had 50-point seasons three of the four years before that. He was getting lots of ice time then, which is another possibility here considering the depth chart behind him is Brandon Tanev and Calle Jarnkrok. If Jaden Schwartz is playing 18-19 minutes a night, which includes top PP time, on a line with Yanni Gourde and Jordan Eberle? I think 20 goals and 50 points is well within reach for him again, and he can go beyond that. Just remember he doesn't bring much for peripherals so his value swings wildly between leagues.

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What to make of Carolina's goaltending? They clean house, including their Calder finalist, to bring in Frederik Andersen and Antti Raanta. Both of those goalies, by the way, outside the top-30 goalies in high-danger save percentage over the last three seasons.

Andersen was injured and lost his job to Jack Campbell last year. Raanta has 55 starts over the last three years due to varying injuries and splitting duties. What if Andersen is the Andersen of the last two years and Raanta isn't able to stay heathy? It seems possible something like that happens. I do find it kind of funny that Andersen went to Carolina, Petr Mrazek went to Toronto, and we just continue to watch this sport.

It's all going to be a problem for fantasy. They are too good of a team to ignore but they will also likely split start. If one goalie gets real hot, they'll take the net, but what does that look like? Maybe 55 starts at the absolute most? Unless injuries crop up, which they very well could, this is a double-edged sword for these guys.

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What to make of Edmonton? They trade for Duncan Keith, trade away Caleb Jones, sign Cody Ceci, and then trade Ethan Bear? So they give up Jones and Bear for Keith and Ceci? Give up two 24-year-old d-men for Keith and Ceci? That is the best they can do?

I hope it works for them but man, this could be bad. Barrie, Keith, Ceci, Russell all on the same blue line. It seems risky.

From a fantasy standpoint, how much are Ceci and Keith worth? Keith won't see much PP time with Darnell Nurse and Barrie around. Ceci certainly won't see any. If Keith is getting sparse PP2 minutes, he doesn't do much in fantasy. Ceci always brings peripherals but it's hard to see him playing the 22-23 minutes he was a few seasons ago.

This could be very bad news for Edmonton goaltending, though. Not that we were ever particularly high on it, were we.

On the flipside, I think Warren Foegele can do well in Edmonton. He likes to shoot in tight to the net, and he's a good forechecker. He is like Pulju Jr. Having him to deploy even on a good checking third line with Derek Ryan could give them the best third line they've had in McDavid's tenure.

I am not sure Foegele will have huge fantasy upside, but a full season could see 15 goals and 100 hits, and that's something in deeper multi-cat leagues. Just don't expect a 50-point season out of him.

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At this point, the shoe to drop is the Eichel trade. We will keep talking about it but I just want it to happen at this point. I do think he goes to Vegas – they're in too deep to back out now with this roster. They have to win a Cup in the next few years and going to get Eichel without significant subtractions from your current roster is the only way to do it. Get it done, Vegas.

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