Fantasy Mailbag: Condensing Keepers Around McDavid; Hyping Trevor Zegras & Jaime Drysdale; Demko vs Nedeljkovic & More

Rick Roos

2021-08-04

Welcome back to another edition of the Roos Lets Loose monthly mailbag, where I answer your fantasy hockey questions by giving advice that should be useful to all poolies even if they don't own the specific players being discussed. As a reminder, if you want your fantasy hockey question(s) answered in the next mailbag, check out the end of the column, where I explain the ways to get it/them to me and as well as the details you should provide when sending. The earlier you send a question the more likely it is to be included in the mailbag, and the deeper dive I can provide with my reply.

Question #1 (from Bryan)

I'm in an 8 team, keep 17 (or less if you want), H2H league. Some teams opt not to keep 17 because the fewer players you keep the earlier the rounds you get to draft. We start 3C, 3LW, 3RW, 4D, 1U, 2G, plus there are 2 IR spots. Categories are G, A, Face Offs, SOG, PIM, HIT, BLK, STP; W, GAA, SV%.

I won this year with the following roster:

C – Auston Matthews, Aleksander Barkov, Bo Horvat, Jack Eichel, Mark Scheifele, Jean-Gabriel Pageau
C/RW – Mitch Marner, Brayden Point, Ryan O'Reilly
C/LW- Elias Pettersson, Brady Tkachuk, Claude Giroux
RW/LW-David Pastrnak, Matthew Tkachuk, Alex Ovechkin, Andrei Svechnikov
D- Cale Makar, Quinn Hughes, Darnell Nurse, Tyson Barrie, Adam Larsson, Jani Hakanpaa
G- Connor Hellebuyck, Ilya Samsonov


What 17 would you keep, as I'm pretty sure I do want to keep 17 because of how many solid options I have. To help get to 17, I'm thinking of doing a major trade where I'd receive Connor McDavid for Alex Ovechkin, Tyson Barrie, Claude Giroux, and either Bo Horvat, Mark Scheifele, or Brayden Point. Do you think the trade is a good idea? If so, which of Horvat, Scheifele and Point would you include?

First off, kudos on a superb team. Yes, in eight team leagues each squad will have a lot of talent; however, this team has to be the far and away leader in terms of top tier talent. And it's that surplus of talent which makes the McDavid trade the definite way to go. In fact, given how stacked your team is, and the reality that other squads in your league undoubtedly know this, I think what you're being asked to give up to obtain McDavid less than I'd demand if I were the other GM.

Which of the three should you include? Not Point if possible, as in the playoffs we saw the same magic between him and Nikita Kucherov that we did in 2018-19. Yes, I realize they also played together in 2019-20 and Point faltered, plus Point had a stellar 2019-20 postseason and then was a let down when it came to 2020-21. However, the potential that exists between him and Kucherov has too much upside to let Point go. Horvat is of course valued in this league due to Face Offs, and the addition of Conor Garland will upgrade his wingers; but he's 26 and 2020-21 saw his streak of improving his scoring output each season come to an end. He's also on a two-year stretch of fewer SOG and he's taken the ice for the seventh most PP Time of any forward in the entire NHL from 2018-19 through 2020-21, yet his PPPts during that time rank him only 48th. Scheifele is someone I said was a sell high; but he came back to earth enough such that his value isn't so high anymore. He was – and remains – an 80-85 point player who happened to catch fire for the first two-thirds of 2020-21. Plus, let's not forget he had 31 points in a 23 game stretch in 2019-20 and still finished in his usual 80-85 point range, making it likely that had 2020-21 been a full 82 game season he'd have finished in that range yet again. Still, that's a pretty good guy to have on your team, although is it good enough to forego the roughly twice as many FOW, Hits and PIM that Horvat will give you?

It's closer than it might seem between the two because of Horvat's strong peripherals and the addition of Garland. I think in the end you try to hold Scheifele, as a point per game floor is strong enough to put him a rung above Horvat. And the areas where he bests Horvat you can get from others on your roster.

You make that trade, getting McDavid and leaving you with 16 keeper spots – McDavid gets one – for 20 players. Easy drops include Pageau, Larsson, and Hakanpaa, putting you to 17. The question then becomes whether to keep a second goalie. On the one hand there are only eight teams; but with 17 keepers I'm pretty sure several squads will opt to retain two despite there being only three goalie categories versus eight for skaters. If you do keep Samsonov, who gets the boot? Nurse has a ton of value in this league, and Pettersson, although disappointing, is still young and oozing with talent. Now that I think of it, maybe the move is to not trade Horvat and drop O'Reilly, who is probably of comparable value to Horvat and might even see his totals drop once his OZ% goes back to normal, as it was elevated this season and he's too important of a two-way player for the Blues to not use him in that manner. Keep Samsonov, drop Pageau, Larsson, Hakanpaa, and ROR is probably how I'd proceed. However, if you'd prefer to trade Horvat, then I'd keep ROR and drop either Pettersson or Samsonov. Good luck!

Question #2 (from Richard)

I'm in a 12-team, keep 15 (only restriction being no more than two goailes) league starting 3C, 3LW, 3RW, 3D, 1U, 2G, with 5 Bench, 2 N/A and 4 IR spots. Categories are G, A, PPP, SHP, +/-, PIM, HIT; W, SV%, SO. The story is I joined the league three years ago, inheriting an pretty good but aging team, so I decided to rebuild, prioritizing youth.

My team consists of:

F – Brady Tkachuk, Kirill Kaprizov, Kevin Fiala, Carter Verhaeghe, Andrei Svechnikov, Eeli Tolvanen, Nick Suzuki, Marco Rossi, Quinton Byfield, Cole Perfetti, Kailer Yamamoto, Jesse Puljujarvi, Nick Roberstson, Owen Tippet, Grigori Denisenko, Alex Newhook

D – Cale Makar, Adam Fox, Quinn Hughes, Bowen Byram, Jamie Drysdale, Ty Smith, Erik Brannstrom

G – Igor Shesterkin, Ilya Sorokin

My goal is to be competing for first place at by no later than 4-6 seasons from now, as the cores of the best current teams will be well past their primes by that point. From there, the hope is a long stretch during which I'd be in the championship mix pretty much every season.

Right now I'm pretty set on keeping Shesterkin, Sorokin, Makar, Fox, Suzuki, Svechnikov, Tolvanen, Rossi, Byfield, and Tkachuk. That fills 10 of 15 keeper spots, the majority of players being age 22 or younger. I'm torn though on which direction to take with my five remaining keepers.

Option 1 – I go "older" and keep Kaprizov (24), Fiala (24), Verhaeghe (25), Hughes (21), and Puljujarvi (23). This feels like the path that will lead to contention the fastest. The reason I put Hughes into this "maybe" group is his poor peripherals and agonizing -24 rating in 2020-21.

Option 2 – I go younger and keep 5 of Smith (21), Drysdale (19), Brannstrom (21), Byram (20), Perfetti (19), Newhook (20), Robertson (19), Yamamoto (22), Tippett (22), and Denisenko (21). This feels like the path that will have the longest consistent window of contention.

Option 3 – I go with a blend of options 1 and 2.

Option 4 – offer some combination of the above talent in a trade that targets players like Tim Steuzle, Trevor Zegras, Jack Hughes, or Alexis Lafreniere. The GM who has Zegras, Hughes and Lafreniere definitely has room for more keepers on his roster and is noticeably lacking in young D, so he'd be eager to make a deal with me, especially if I offer him some draft picks, which I don't really need due to my youth and the lower quality of players I perceive to be available.

How would you proceed?


This looks like it has the makings of a very sold rebuild. Hats off! But you've done so well that, as you've seized upon, you now have a dilemma in terms of keeper selection. Focusing first on the ten you list as your planned keeps, what I'm looking for is guys who project to be top line staples, plus, if possible, will contribute across several categories and play on teams that are likely to be offensively potent. I worry about Nashville and Minnesota in terms of how well forwards on those teams might be, since Nashville has gone a decade without more than a 65 point forward scorer and Minnesota is stingy with its ice times. But we're projecting 4+ years from now, and a lot can change in that time frame. Plus, Rossi is all but assured to be a top liner and Tolvanen a top six player at worst who also will be a stat stuffer. So I think I'm on board with your ten.

As for the options, I'm not a fan of #1, and feel you should go with a hybrid of #3 and #4. I don't think Verhaeghe is keeper material given his age and one hit wonder potential. I think you have to grin and bear it when it comes to Hughes though. Here's where I'd normally cite player comparables; however, Hughes defies comparison, as dating back to 1990-01 no other d-man had two or more seasons of either 0.7+ points per game and -10 or worse +/- while playing in 50+ games each season by age 21. In fact only one other d-man did it even once, namely Roman Hamrlik back in 1995-96. It's a similar story if we look at d-men who, also going back to 1990-91 and in 50+ games each season by age 21, had 0.7 points per game but also under 2.0 SOG per contest, as that yielded just one player, namely Drew Doughty in 2009-10. No one is going to confuse Hughes with Doughty, and probably not Hamrlik either. Still though, I think what we've seen from Hughes makes him have enough value that he has to be part of the keeper picture, +/- warts and lack of other multi-cat strength notwithstanding. The addition of Oliver Ekman-Larsson probably will help him too, taking some of the pressure off and letting him be sheltered in terms of his deployment, ala what Torey Krug was in Boston.

Who then should the other four be? I'm ruling out Newhook because at best he'll be stuck behind Nathan MacKinnon, which limits his ceiling. I'm not sure I keep Puljujarvi or Yamamoto, as it's too difficult to predict who will hit the jackpot in terms of line placement, plus Puljujarvi, as I pointed out in a recent Forum Buzz column, had a terrible IPP despite a superb OZ% plus didn't even average two SOG and took the ice for only 34% of his team's man advantage minutes. Yes, one of them could end up being great; but given how unclear it is whether that would happen and, if so, to whom, I think you don't keep either one.

Then there's the Minnesota guys. They're 24, so they'd be among the older players you keep and, as I noted, they're on the Wild, where even a star in the making like Kaprizov managed just 18:18 per game and 3:14 on the PP. Those are not great numbers. Yes, in four seasons the team philosophy may very well change; however, if those are his – and Fiala's – ice time ceilings, that's a concern. What I'd do is try to turn one of them – either one – into Zegras, who put up point per game numbers over his last eight games and had 27 SOG in his last nine for lowly Anaheim, which should be emerging from its rebuild within your time frame. Zegras is a pure center, which is the deepest position in fantasy; but he could be special. So keep one, turn the other into Zegras, throwing in another player or picks if need be.

That gets you to 13 (the original ten, plus Zegras, Kaprizov or Fiala, and Quinn Hughes). For #14, give me Perfetti. He can play center or wing, which is coveted versatility, plus he was superb in the AHL. He'll arrive in Winnipeg early enough to benefit from the presence of veterans like Blake Wheeler and Mark Scheifele to be mentored by them, then will be poised in 2-3 years to step up and be a contributor, all the while with Kyle Connor and Nicolaj Ehlers still there and in their 20s.

The last one is tough. I think it has to be Lafreniere or one of the young defensemen. And looking at guys like Byram, Brannstrom, Smith, and Drysdale, each one has a lot to like about him; however, the one who seemingly stands out is Drysdale, who not only is the youngest but, like Perfetti, played quite well in the AHL this season. If you could keep him to compliment Zegras, you'd have two of the key building blocks for the Ducks. Still though, I couldn't blame you if you tried to land Lafreniere. While his rookie season was not superb, the key is he finished with seven points in his last nine games and by the last four contests was taking the ice for 50% or more of the team's man advantage minutes. Plus, even though Lafreniere's per game TOI average for the season was 13:53, he bested that in eight of the nine games, and was above 16:00 in three of the final five contests, mostly playing alongside Mika Zibanejad and Pavel Buchnevich, who now is gone, making Lafreniere a pretty sure top six guy. If the price to get Lafreniere is reasonable, he's probably who I'd target as your 15th keeper. Otherwise, go with Drysdale.

In terms of the omitted guys, chances are in a 12-team league at least one other squad will be looking to acquire some youth. So I wouldn't hesitate to offer one, some, or all to those you're not keeping in an effort to try and get some draft picks in return, both in general or to help offset ones you might lose in trading for Zegras and Lafreniere. Good luck!

Question #3 (from D)

I'm in a 15-team league with 22 rostered players (plus IR and NA spots) and starting line-ups, with maximum games played limits, consisting of 3C, 3LW, 3RW, 4D, 1F, 2U, 2G and with skater categories of G, A, +/-, PIM, PPP, SHP, SOG, FW, HIT, BLK. Up to 9 forwards can be kept by a team.

There are two strong teams in this league and then a group of 5 or 6 of us in the second tier; so my team is reloading on the fly. Given this, which 9 of these forwards do you keep, realizing that I want to try and skew a bit young as part of a rebuild: Patrice Bergeron, Gabriel Landeskog, Tyler Toffoli, Matthew Tkachuk, Elias Pettersson, Kevin Fiala, Sam Bennett, Jason Robertson, Denis Gurianov, Trevor Zegras, Cole Caufield, Marco Rossi? As of now, I'm leaning toward reluctantly dropping Gurianov, and Rossi, plus either Toffoli, Bennett, or Zegras. Summer trades are a possibility.

I'm not sure if retooling means rebuilding, although I'll take it to mean that since this team has a very nice core if the goal is indeed to rebuild. The question boils down to which three to drop. To me, the first priority is to explore trades for Bergeron and Landeskog. After a step down year for him the return you'll get for Bergeron will be less than a year ago; however, he's still really solid for these categories and has name value, so I'd put him on the block. I'm also moving Landeskog, as we've seen too many instances of forwards who play a "rough and tumble" style starting to really slow at or near age 30 (e.g., Jamie Benn, Wayne Simmonds, David Backes, Milan Lucic, Andrew Ladd). The goal would be to turn both into younger players who might not pay huge dividends over the course of the next season or two but who'll be far more valuable for you when Bergeron and Landy slow. Honestly, I might toss Toffoli's name out there too. I can't picture him doing much better than he did this season given his deployment and high SH%, and they call it selling high for a reason.

Robertson also could be a sell. Yes, he looked great in 2020-21; however, you have to be worried about him not panning out as well long term. As I noted in my last mailbag, he’s less valuable in a multi-cat leagues and probably won't be on PP1. And think about the hype surrounding him now, then hearken back to the most recent successful rookie wingers, like William NylanderClayton KellerYanni Gourde, each of whom has by and large failed to live up to early expectations. I'd dangle him as a trade piece too, and see if you get wowed.

As for the rest of your current squad, I won't know how many players you'll be getting in return nor where their strengths will lie, so I'll go over each player individually. Tkachuk is a keep given PIM and HIT are categories. Pettersson concerns me, as I've noted in several of my columns; but if all goes well he could be the best of the bunch, so I think you have to hold and hope. Fiala ended last season great yet again and once he gets a decent center he could explode, even with Minnesota's ice time stinginess. All three of them are certain keeps. Bennett probably is a keep too given the deal he signed, as while one can't help but wonder if his strong play was influenced by his status as an impending RFA, this is a guy who was a top five draft pick and still only 25 years old. He could've just needed a change in scenery, sort of like what happened years ago with John LeClair and Markus Naslund.

That leaves Gurianov, Zegras, Caufield, and Rossi. Of them, I like Zegras – whom I discussed above – the best. Caufield had a strong showing at the end of the season and in the playoffs too. But let's keep in mind that even Max Pacioretty never once scored more than 67 points as a Habs winger, and in fact no Canadiens winger posted more than that many points since Alexei Kovalev way back in 2007-08. Yes, we saw what Toffoli did this season; but as noted that was with an inflated SH%. As promising as Caufield seems, a player's circumstances are as important as his talent. Rossi is the unknown, as COVID cost him all of 2020-21. Once he gets to Minnesota he should be plugged right into the top six, where we saw from Kirill Kaprizov players can succeed. However, Kaprizov was older, with significant experience from his time in the KHL. Plus, both Montreal and – as noted – Minnesota are stingy with ice time for forwards. As for Gurianov, he's fine but doesn't measure up versus what you have as other choices.

In sum, you could make as many as four trades, dealing away Bergeron, Landeskog, Toffoli, and/or Robertson. After that the definite keeps are Tkachuk, Pettersson, Fiala, and Bennett. If you get four players back by trading those four, then the last keep is Zegras unless you're loaded at center, in which case you keep Caufield. If you somehow don't trade any of the four, would they all be keeps? I'd say yes, but it's a close call with respect to Toffoli due to his shooting percentage. If the team really wants to go young, then Toffoli would be pushed aside for the other of Zegras or Caufield. Good luck!

Question #4 (from Pino)

How do you rank the following four goalies – I can only protect two: Thatcher Demko, Petr Mrazek, Alex Nedeljkovic, and Igor Shesterkin.

Right off the bat I'm putting Mrazek last. His stats from his three seasons in Carolina look decent at first glance, what with a cumulative GAA of 2.49 and SV% of .911, but his quality start percentage was only 54.4% over that stretch. Looking at the eight other goalies who likewise started at least 90 games and had a cumulative GAA under 2.50 over that same span, the average Quality Start Percentage was 60.3%, with the second lowest being 57.0%. Mrazek also was in last with a 14.5 Goalie Point Share, which was easily the lowest of the group, with the second lowest being 19.9% and the average of the other eight being 23.1%.

What does this tell us? Mrazek is not a very good goalie in his own right, with his stats from his time in Carolina being propped up due more so to the team around him than his own ability. I also think the pressure of the Toronto spotlight is more likely to hurt than help him.

What about Nedeljkovic? It's difficult, as 23 games is a small sample size, but there is one goalie who, since 2000-01 and like Neds played 20+ games as a rookie with a GAA less than 2.00 and a SV% of .930 or greater….some guy named Tuukka Rask. Still, if we tinker with the ranges a bit, raising the GAA threshold to 2.20 and lowering the SV% to .920, we get five other goalies: Marty Turco, John Gibson, Jordan Binnington, Andrew Raycroft, and Jonas Hiller. Turco had a very solid career, Gibson is talented but stuck on a poor team, Binnington is still a work in progress, Hiller had a few good seasons, and only Raycroft was a bust. So all in all what Neds did as a rookie bodes well. Detroit clearly wanted him, yet with Thomas Greiss under contract for another season my guess is Neds will be eased into things, with roughly 45 starts, and that's assuming he wasn't a one hit wonder. Then in 2022-23 he'd be "the guy" while in the interim the Wings will have improved as a team. So if 2021-22 is key, Neds might not be great; but if you're considering 2022-23 and beyond, his value goes way up.

Shesterkin is unquestionably the goalie of the future for the Rangers, who, on paper, look to have the making of being a powerhouse for years to come. Shesterkin's overall numbers were not superb but certainly were good enough to be encouraging. One key is he was at his best when he was playing on a regular basis, as demonstrated by him starting 15 of 17 games between March 30 and April 29, giving up only 36 goals during that stretch. Yes, he faltered a bit toward the end of the season; however, that was likely due to him not having played that many games in that condensed of a schedule. He's at the top of the list of the four.

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It boils down to whether Demko makes more sense than Nedeljkovic as the second keeper. Demko's 2020-21 wasn't spectacular; however, despite having so little prior experience, Demko had a mere three Really Bad Starts, with only one goalie, namely 2020-21 Vezina winning Marc-Andre Fleury, who started more games having that few and no netminder who started more than 36 games (Demko started 35) having less than five. Demko also had a Goalie Point Share of 7.8, good enough for sixth among goalies with 20+ starts, with all above him having a higher SV% and a lower GAA, attesting to his talent. Neds, by the way, had a GPS of 5.5, ranking him 21st.

We know that Demko has done enough to earn his spot as a #1 goalie in Vancouver; but Jaroslav Halak is a very good netminder who likely was brought in to ease Demko into the #1 role, making it very unlikely Demko will start more than 50 games, if even that. As such, it's a pretty close call. I see Demko as lower risk with similar if not better long term upside; however, when you sent me the question you seemed to favor Neds, which I suppose I can endorse. Good luck!

Question #5 (from Nancy)

I'm in a 12 team, keep 10, points only league where each week we roster 6F, 3D, 1G. Scoring is G(1), A(1), SHG(1), Hat Trick(2), W(2), SO(3). I'm in the midst of a rebuild, having finished last in 2019-20. Given this, who would your keepers be among the following players? My preferences are Jack and Quinn Hughes, Suzuki, Bjorkstrand, Kaprizov, Fiala, Lafreniere, Lindholm, Fox, and Theodore.

Do you agree? If not, how would you proceed differently?

F – Kevin Fiala, Jack Hughes, Nick Suzuki, Oliver Bjorkstrand, Alexis Lafreniere, Kirill Kaprizov, Elias Lindholm, Barett Hayton, Robert Thomas, Drake Batherson, Timo Meier, Alex Tuch, Jakub Vrana

D – Adam Fox, Shea Theodore, Quinn Hughes, Noah Dobson

G – Carter Hart

Rookies – Morgan Frost, Marco Rossi, Alexander Holtz, Cam York, Nicolas Beaudin, Kale Clauge

Looking at the categories, this is essentially a points only league, as SHGs are rare enough not to be factored into a player's value and someone who figures to get hat tricks is likely to be a player who's already valuable based on goals and assists alone.

First things first, I'm letting Hart go. Could he end up being one of the 12 best goalies of 2021-22 in this format? It's quite possible. Be that as it may he's not retainable because his value right now is so low as to make him a redraft. It would be one thing if you were scrambling to have enough skaters to retain, but you have plenty of talent there so I'm sending Hart back into the draft pool.

With 120 players being retained leaguewide, you need to be sure not to keep too many who are likely far from making an impact, even where – as here – you're in the midst of a rebuild. So I'm glad to see you didn't advocate keeping most of your other rookies, as simply put you just redraft them if you want them. Do I think Rossi is worth a spot? Certainly he seems primed for the soonest success out of the bunch, but it is not a great idea to stockpile Minnesota players, since as I noted above the team is stingy with ice time, even for top players, and they will have a tough time finding talent given cap constraints after the Zach Parise and Ryan Suter buyouts. Put Rossi down as a maybe.

All that being said about Minnesota players, I think Fiala and Kaprizov are keeps due to their already demonstrated successes and them being perfect for a rebuilding team because they figure to be very productive for many years to come. I can also get behind both Hughes brothers, since Jack did seem to be figuring things out toward the end of the season and, just as importantly, Nico Hischier looks to be a Band-Aid Boy in the making and is not playing great hockey even when healthy. Quinn is perfect for this league since it doesn't expose his multi-cat weaknesses. I also can't argue with Fox or Theodore. Yes, most teams probably won't keep three defensemen in a dress three league, but these three figure to be among the top twenty overall in this league, plus they're still young enough to help when you emerge from your rebuild.

That leaves room for four more forwards. After what we saw in the playoffs from him and Cole Caufield Suzuki is a must keep. Plus, the last five forwards age 21 or younger who, like Suzuki in 20201, had at least 16 points in a Stanley Cup playoffs includes Elias Pettersson, but also David Pastrnak, Brayden Point, Leon Draisaitl and Nikita Kucherov. We might have witnessed another step toward greatness for him. I'm also keeping Vrana, who was a point per game player in his brief tenure with Detroit, firing just under three SOG per game. He has the talent, a big chip on his shoulder, plus now all the top line ice time he can handle. He's poised to explode.

The last two spots boil down to Lindholm, Batherson, Lafreniere, and Rossi. I think one of Rossi and Lafrieniere strikes the correct balance, as both would be skewing too young, even in a rebuild. And I'd go with LaFreniere, who, by Q4 of 2020-21 was put on the Mika Zibanejad line and didn't look out of place. He's going to be very good if not in 2021-22 then soon enough.

As for Lindholm and Batherson, it just so happens I covered both in the same Goldipucks piece, where I noted that Lindholm looked to be locked into the 70-point range. Beyond the points I raised in that column he's someone who tends to score often, but not in bunches, with his 47 points coming in 36 games this past season and his 54 in 2019-20 in 41 contests, making him one of the only forwards to have a number of games in which they got a point equal to or above 75% of their total points for both these two most recent seasons. Simply put, if he was going to raise the level of his game I think it would've happened by now. Batherson, on the other hand, showed signs in 2020-21 of being an explosive scorer, as although he had 14 points less than Lindholm he had an identical number of games with 2+ points. Batherson's IPPs also were stellar, showing he has a nose for scoring. When he and the team around him improve, he should blow past Lindholm's output. On a rebuilding team that's what you want, so Batherson is the pick.

In sum, the ten keepers are Jack and Quinn Hughes, Fox, Theodore, Fiala, Kaprizov, Suzuki, Lafreniere, Batherson, and Vrana. What's great is each is between the ages 19 and 25, perfect for a team currently in a rebuild but hoping to emerge from it soon.

Why Vrana over Bjorkstrand, which is the only difference between our lists? I think Bjorkstrand is a talented player with upside; and it says a lot that he still managed to up his scoring rate in 2020-21 given the poor season Columbus had. I just like Vrana more, as the stat I keep coming back to is that Vrana was the first forward since Nikita Kucherov to achieve a scoring rate of 0.75+ points per game despite taking the for less than 15:00 per game in the same season.

Also, a concern I have for Bjorkstrand is PP time and production, as he's been lacking in that area. Yes, it was likely due to John Tortorella at least in part; but it might just be Bjorkstrand isn't cut from a cloth of solid PP production. Of course one could turn that around and say, if Bjorkstrand was able to score 80 combined points in 2019-20 and 2020-21 despite only 12 cumulative PPPts, with the average PPPt total of players who cumulatively scored 80-90 points being 24, that he has ample room to be able to score even more on the PP in the normal course. And that's a reasonable argument. Long story short, if you still favor Bjorkstrand over Vrana, I think that's fine. Or you could keep both and decide to not keep one of the Minnesota guys. Good luck!

Question #6 (from Bill)

I'm in a 10 team auction league with categories of G, A, +/-, SOG, Hits, STG, STA, PIMs, SV%, GAA, W+1/2SO. Rosters consist of 25 players and owners are permitted to protect up to 15 players, but each retained player must be kept at a price 10% higher than his draft or previous keeper price. Each team gets a total of $100 to spend on its entire roster.

Here are my current players, with what they'd cost to retain:

Patrick Kane ($24.25), Evander Kane ($10.75), Nathan MacKinnon ($8.75), Nicolaj Ehlers ($2.75), J.T. Miller ($2.00), Elias Lindholm ($2.25), William Nylander ($2.50), Pavel Buchnevich ($1.25), Anthony Mantha ($5.50), Jamie Benn ($1.75), Chris Kreider ($5.25), Patrick Hornquist ($1.50), Pierre-Luc Dubois ($1.25), Tyson Barrie ($12.25), John Carlson ($4.25), Quinn Hughes ($2.75), Morgan Rielly ($2.50), Jamie Drysdale ($1.25), Matt Dumba ($2.50) Jani Hakanpaa ($1.25), Philipp Grubauer ($1.75), Tristan Jarry ($2.00), Marc-Andre Fleury ($1.25), Mackenzie Blackwood ($1.25), Cal Peterson ($1.25), Elvis Merzlikens ($1.75). 

My definite keepers are P. Kane, E. Kane, MacKinnon, Ehlers, Miller, Carlson, Hughes, Reilly, Drysdale, Grubauer, Jarry. Beyond these 11 I'm having a tough time. Nylander, Lindholm, and Buchnevich seem rather similar, but good value. What is the upside for Mantha? Barrie seems too expensive. On the goaltending front, I'm a big fan of Peterson and feel like he could be a staple on my team for years; but maybe Blackwood or even Merzlikens makes more sense? I'm also unsure what to do with MAF. I am willing to protect 4 goalies though, to shore up that position. My gut tells me to keep Nylander, Buchnevich, Lindholm and Peterson and try to trade Fleury. Also, is the time now to trade Carlson? What about Hughes (peripherals and +/- are a disaster)?

Note that I count 26 players, not 25. But that shouldn't affect my recommendations. Let's start with Patrick Kane. A quarter of your budget is a lot to spend on a 32 year old who doesn't give you anything in the way of Hits or PIM. That having been said, looking at the prices of some of the other players on your team, it seems to suggest guys can be readily obtained for as low as $1. Still, you need to ask yourself this – how expensive would be too expensive for Kane? If it was me, I'd say you're at that point already; however, if you don't retain him you might be left with literally too much money to spend. Let's focus on your other 14 keepers and then reassess on Kane.

Your list of eleven strikes me as sound, with the possible exception of Drysdale. This shows you drafted him for $1.00 last season, and he hasn't done much to suggest he'd cost more than $1.00 to redraft. Chances are he will pay dividends down the road; however, between the time it will take him to mature and for Anaheim to get back on its feet might, that be too long to keep retaining him again and again. I'm not sure he's a keep.

I'm not trading Carlson. He's peaked for sure; however, his deployment is so superb and his price so great that you keep him for at least one more season. If Carlson end up pulling a Brent Burns and hits a wall in 2021-22 that'd be a tough break; however, it's worth the small risk of that happening given his superb price and track record of top-notch production. Hughes also is a grin and bear it keep. Yes, he's a category killer; but he will rack up points at ES and on the PP, and you can fill your roster with multicat guys to make up for Hughes' shortcomings. Remember – Hits and PIM guys grow on trees, whereas top scorers who get heaps of PP time and have many years of superb production on the horizon most definitely do not.

As for goalies, three of 11 of your categories are goalie-related, or 27%; and 27% of 15 keepers is four. I can get behind you keeping four goalies. As for which four, I'm keeping Fleury, as either he's the guy in Chicago or gets traded to a team where he'll be a true #1. As you suggested, you keep Grubauer, despite his downgrade, as well as Jarry, and then what I'd go is offer up both Blackwood and Peterson for trade and deal whichever fetches you the best return, keeping the other of the two. Merzlikens is not keeper material.

That leaves two spots. Mantha at $5.50 is too high given what we saw from him over the last quarter in terms of production but also deployment. In a few seasons he'll pay dividends; however, he's not good value at that cost. Barrie is indeed too pricey. Instead I'm keeping all three of Nylander, Lindholm, and Buchnevich. For their price, 65-75 points is plenty good enough, and will help your team quite a bit. What that means is I'm not keeping Patrick Kane or Drysdale. If you strongly disagree and want to keep Kane, then either go with just three goalies (not keeping whomever of Blackwood and Peterson you didn't trade) or go with two of Lindholm, Buchnevich, and Nylander, with Nylander being the one I'd toss back as he's the most expensive and not great in multicat. Good luck!

One final note – as I'm submitting this column allegations about Evander Kane betting on NHL games are just beginning to surface. Of course if any actions taken against him cause him to miss most if not all of this season or even longer, he would not be a keep. In that case, Nylander or Drysdale would be back in the mix, with Nylander being the close call pick for me.

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For those reading this now, it's never too early to start providing me with mailbag questions, which you can do in one of two ways: (1) by emailing them to [email protected] with the words "Roos Mailbag" as the subject line, or (2) by sending them to me via a private message on the DobberHockey Forums, where my username is "rizzeedizzee".

When sending me your questions, remember to provide as much detail about your league/situation as possible. Examples of things I need to know include what type of league you're in (i.e., limited keeper, dynasty, or one-year; roto vs H2H; auction – if so, what the budget is – or non-auction), how many teams are in the league, does the salary cap matter, how many players are rostered (and of those, how many start at each position as well as how many bench and/or IR spots there are), what categories are scored and how are they weighted, plus other details if pertinent. If your question involves whether to pick up or drop a player, give me a list of top free agents available and let me know if the number of pick-ups is limited or if there is a priority system for pick-ups. If you're thinking of making a trade, it would be good to know not only the roster of the other team you might trade with but also where you stand in your categories. If your question involves keepers, in addition to giving me the options for who to keep, let me know if offseason trading is allowed and to what extent it is a viable option given your league. In sum, the key is to tell me enough for me to give you a truly proper answer, and for readers of this column to benefit from the answer/advice I provide. When in doubt, it's best to err on the side of inclusion since I can always omit or disregard things that don't matter.

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Starting Goalies

Top Skater Views

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LUKE HUGHES N.J
JACKSON LACOMBE ANA
PATRIK LAINE MTL
KIRILL MARCHENKO CBJ
BRYAN RUST PIT

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  Players Team
KAREL VEJMELKA UTA
DUSTIN TOKARSKI CAR
FILIP GUSTAVSSON MIN
MACKENZIE BLACKWOOD COL
JONAS JOHANSSON T.B

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency WPG Players
23.6 NINO NIEDERREITER ADAM LOWRY MASON APPLETON
22.9 GABRIEL VILARDI MARK SCHEIFELE KYLE CONNOR
16.3 COLE PERFETTI VLADISLAV NAMESTNIKOV NIKOLAJ EHLERS

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