It is the end of the work week so I want to take some time to talk about one of my favourite topics in hockey: defencemen, particularly younger defencemen. The game of hockey, specifically in the NHL, has changed enormously over the last decade. With that change has come an evolution of the blue liners and what they are expected to do. Twenty years ago, you might have one or two puck-movers on a roster and the rest act as bruisers. These days, you might have one or two bruisers on a roster and the rest are puck-movers. It has made the game more entertaining to watch even as the big hits of yesteryear become a thing of the past.

Let's take some time to talk about three young defencemen in particular today. I am going to be using data from our Frozen Tools, Natural Stat Trick, Evolving Hockey, HockeyViz, and Corey Sznajder's Patreon. Let us dig in.

Evan Bouchard

I want to think that part of Edmonton's offseason was their belief in how good Evan Bouchard will be in the future. Otherwise, it makes absolutely no sense to ditch Caleb Jones and Ethan Bear, two young defencemen that could have been part of the future with Bouchard.

Anyway, this is about what kind of player Bouchard is now and what he can be in the fantasy game in the near future. I bring him up because though he had just 14 games in the NHL this past shortened season, he performed extremely well in his small sample.

From some playmaking data from the Patreon mentioned above, Bouchard had a possession-exit rate of 68 percent, far-and-away the best on Edmonton's blue line. League-wide, he was comparable to guys like Charlie McAvoy and Roman Josi. Staying with that data set, Bouchard had a similar primary shot assist rate to names like Victor Hedman and Dougie Hamilton, and he led all defencemen in shot rate. Some of his passing metrics aren't elite, but his zone-exit and shot rates are. This a guy that is still 21 years old right now.

Those are just a handful of metrics in a small sample. They are good indicators of what we hope Bouchard is and can be, but not definitive. And they can be misleading, too, because here was Edmonton's offence with him on the ice:

That is way, way, way too many shots from the blue line and not near enough from the net-front. That Bouchard was so shot-heavy might have actually worked against him. It is one of those instances where a number that is typically good for fantasy value (shot rate) may not help the actual player a whole lot.

The real problem here is ice time. Cody Ceci was signed for, at the very least, a top-4 role while Tyson Barrie will hold on to the top PP unit. If the absolute best Bouchard can do this year is second-pair minutes at even strength with no significant PP time, that's maybe 20 minutes a night at the absolute most. More likely, we're looking at a pseudo their-pair slot for him, and around 17 minutes a night.

Beyond that, they still have Kris Russell, and seeing they're trading every young defenceman that isn't nailed down, maybe they don't have a lot of faith in Bouchard. It is not hard to see this group in Edmonton deciding that Kris Russell sliding around like he's a character in Mega Man Soccer is more valuable than Bouchard, if they have Nurse, Keith, Barrie etc in the lineup.

Therein lies Bouchard's problem: the machinations of Edmonton management. Even as I said I want to think they think highly of the young rearguard, they clearly don't view him as ready for big NHL minutes, otherwise they wouldn't have brough in Ceci, Keith, and re-signed Barrie. If they thought he could play 21 minutes a night, at least one of those guys wouldn't be there. Russell has one year left so it's probably a situation where he and Bouchard split some games and that's just a headache. I think there's a wonderful defenceman in Bouchard, but I'm not sure the Oilers think that yet, and that's all that matters.

Rasmus Dahlin

There is going to be a lot of pain for Dahlin in the short-term. Sam Reinhart was traded, Jack Eichel is going to be traded, and this lottery team from last year's biggest offseason acquisition was Vinnie Hinostroza. This is going to be a bad Buffalo team and that's not good for Dahlin.

And he wasn't even great in fantasy last year, either. He had just 23 points in 56 games, averaged just a shade over two shots per game, and was a whopping minus-36. I don't really see a reason why he improves massively off that considering the top line could be something like Bjork-Cozens-Thompson in two months.

The sad thing is that Dahlin had a really good 2021 campaign, at least by some measures. With him on the ice, the team was at average offensively. That might not seem like a screaming endorsement, but this is with him off the ice:

Buffalo's problem was they shot six percent with him on the ice. That is abysmally bad, but there are other indicators that Dahlin is improving.

From Sznajder's data, Dahlin was about league-average for shots by a defenceman, but was one of the best in the league in primary shot assists (passes leading directly to shots by teammates); his immediate company is names like Hughes, Girard, and Josi. Those are the best of the best at setting up teammates. By high-danger passes – across the slot or from behind the net – he was literally tops in the league at 1.2 per 60 minutes. He was also above average in possession exits.

In all, it was a really, really good year for Dahlin everywhere but the boxcar stats. That is the Dahlin Conundrum: he is getting better and might genuinely be one of the best playmaking defencemen in the league. But if the team's second-best scoring option has 21 goals in his last 112 games, as Jeff Skinner does, how much upside does Dahlin have this season?

I think now is the time to buy Dahlin in dynasty leagues. He is coming off a brutal year and everyone knows Buffalo will be bad for at least another couple campaigns. Unless my read of his abilities is completely wrong, he won't get any cheaper in a trade than he will right now. He should be a perennial 50-point threat in a couple years when (if?) that team ever figures it out.

Conor Timmins

Lastly but not leastly (that should be a word), we have a guy who was traded to Arizona in the Darcy Kuemper deal. It probably came as a surprise to many, myself included. Timmins has a concussion history that delayed his development, but the team stuck with the 32^nd overall pick from 2017 for four years before he became a quasi-regular in 2021. It seemed he was going to be a part of the core on the blue line for years to come. It was not to be.

Here's something I bet the readers didn't know: in the 2021 season, Timmins had virtually identical shot (11.48) and primary assist (7.55) rates per 60 minutes as teammate Devon Toews (11.57, 7.59). I am not saying he is Devon Toews, but Toews is coming off a season where he had 31 points in 53 games. If Timmins had that production this year, how excited are people in Arizona about him? My guess is: very.

What if I also told the readers that Timmins had the second-highest high-danger pass rate of any Colorado d-man, behind Makar? Because he did, even more than Girard or Toews.

Being decent in transition, while having good shot and pass rates, will lead to good impacts, and that's what happened:

He was inside the 90^th percentile for defencemen in offensive impact and was above average defensively. Remember that this was his first full-ish season and he has had a long injury history. If he's this good after all those roadblocks, what can he do if he's fully healthy?

While going from Colorado to Arizona might not seem like a step up for fantasy, there is more opportunity in the Desert. At even strength, he'd be behind at least Cale Makar, if not also Erik Johnson, if not also Ryan Murray. There is no guarantee he'd play 82 games with the Avs, and when he'd be in the lineup, his ice time would be in the teens.

On the flipside, OEL and Oesterle are gone from Arizona, and those are two guys who ate up some PP time last year. Jakob Chychrun will get top PP duties, but Timmins has a real shot at PP2 duties. On top of that, he could easily stay in the top-4 all year at even strength. He may have played like 65 games with sparse ice time on the better team, but I'll take a full season with 20 minutes a night on a worse team for a defenceman.

Just watch peripherals here. They weren't high last year, and we'll see what happens this year. I do think Timmins is on his way to being a very good top-4 defenceman, and we'll see that bubble to the surface this season.

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Have you picked up your copy of the 2021 Dobber Prospects Report?

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Yegor Sharangovich has a contract extension

2x$2M (1.8/2.2) https://t.co/YR4jwVSaB1

— Elliotte Friedman (@FriedgeHNIC) August 5, 2021

I wrote a fair bit on Sharangovich back in June and what I said there still holds water. I think there's something here, it's just a matter of how the team uses him. We'll see.

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Staying in New Jersey, Tomas Tatar signed with the Devils. I wrote about that impact here.