In news that seemed to arrive completely out of left field, Joe Thornton has signed a one-year, $750,000 contract with the Florida Panthers. Thornton is picking a team that he believes can help him land that elusive Stanley Cup (fill in obvious Florida retirement home joke here). In case you think Thornton is washed up, Sheldon Keefe thought enough of him to give him top-line minutes with Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner at times. That being said, expect the 42-year-old Thornton to be a bottom-6 forward with the Panthers, with the possibility to move up in the lineup if there are injuries.

I don't necessarily see Thornton himself being in heavy demand in fantasy leagues, although he could be a waiver-wire pickup if he gets a run on one of the scoring lines. Kind of like last season in Toronto.

#FlaPanthers centers:
Barkov
Bennett
Acciari
Thornton
Luostarinen
Lundell
Heponiemi

Wingers:
Verhaeghe
Huberdeau
Duclair
Reinhart
Tippett
Denisenko
Vatrano
Marchment
Hornqvist
Lomberg
Lammikko
Mamin

— Dobber (@DobberHockey) August 13, 2021

This signing really impacts other players, in particular prospects that you may be waiting on. Florida has a logjam of forwards, which means that someone like Anton Lundell spends the year getting used to North American life in the AHL while getting good and ready for the NHL. Kind of like the old Detroit model. Although he would be considered NHL-ready in many other organizations, Grigori Denisenko might also be given another season in the AHL to really ripen, given that he played only 22 total games (NHL and AHL) last season. Being waivers-exempt also matters here, even if a meritocracy seems fairer.

I already wrote about the Florida forward situation here, when the Sam Reinhart trade was announced. I won't rehash it any more than that, except to say that they've just added one more forward to the pile.

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In a Friday afternoon/evening news drop to perhaps avoid around-the-clock coverage from the Toronto media, the Leafs announced that Auston Matthews underwent wrist surgery earlier in the day. He is expected to need six weeks to recover, which should put him on track to be ready for the start of October. After increasing on-ice training, Matthews reportedly experienced discomfort, so surgery was recommended.

With the season starting in mid-October, this is certainly something to keep an eye on leading up to the season. The NHL's leading goal scorer in 2020-21 with 41 goals, Matthews is currently projected to be a top-10 pick in fantasy drafts. Since the wrist is critical for what Matthews does best, there might also be some concern as to whether he'll feel right once he's back on the ice.

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Via Instagram, Viktor Stalberg has announced his retirement from professional hockey. Stalberg has not played in the NHL since 2016-17, but he has played in Europe since then. My takeaway: at least I know that Dobber won't ask me to write another Fantasy Take on him joining another team! I can remember writing them on two separate occasions.

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I'm going to make my annual shout out to Tyler Matson, who collects fantasy draft results on draft-eligible players to determine where each prospect is being drafted. ADP (average draft position) is just one of several tools that you should be using if you have one of these drafts and don't spend considerable time watching prospects. Another tool, of course, is the Fantasy Prospects Report, which you can purchase over at Dobber Sports.

28 Drafts

AVG/Hi/Lo

1-Eklund 3.07/1/7
2-Beniers 3.64/1/10
3-Power 4.03/1/16
4-Wallstedt 4.96/1/20
5-Hughes 6.1/2/13
6-McTavish 6.28/1/14
7-K.Johnson 6.53/1/13
8-Guenther 7.78/4/14
9-Clarke 8/3/14
10-Cossa 10.11/2/22
11-Lysell 12.21/4/23

— Tyler Matson (@MatsonHockey) August 12, 2021

28 Drafts

AVG/Hi/Lo

12-Edvinsson 12.46/6/28
13-Sillinger 13.21/10/20
14-Lucius 13.53/7/21
15-Coronato 15/7/27
16-Raty 18.74/6/52
17-Svechkov 19.59/12/35
18-Rosen 20.55/13/30
19-Othman 21.4/15/32
20-L'Heureux 24/13/39
21-Stankoven 25.57/16/47
22-Lambos 26/12/43

— Tyler Matson (@MatsonHockey) August 12, 2021

Something I noticed in my replies when I posted my draft results: There are a ton of opinions out there on which players should be drafted when. Too many to list and break down here. As much as you might have a firm opinion on one prospect over another, there wasn't much hockey played this past season because of COVID. So comparisons might be apples and oranges and pizza and chocolate bars. This draft could turn out to be as messed up as any in recent memory. It'll take years before we really know whether that will be true.

One common observation (aside from questioning why I would choose Luke Hughes over Brandt Clarke – pick up your FPR if you want to find out why) was that Owen Power should not be picked first overall. For the record, Power is not listed as the top draft-eligible prospect in the FPR. I won't tell you who it is – you'll have to purchase your own copy. 😊

If you have the first overall pick in this type of draft, the mindset might be to default to the first overall pick in the real-life draft. But when you're comparing defensemen like Power, Hughes, and Clarke, the separation between real-life value and fantasy value becomes greater than it is for forwards. Who has the most offensive upside? That's when you have to look at the numbers and also consider what level of competition the player faced. Mock drafts before an actual draft are fine, but they may be misleading when it comes to picking the player that you need.

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There's another Keeping Karlsson podcast to share. If Elan and Brian need the day off, Ben Burnett will step in. That's what he did in interviewing Capitals beat writer Samantha Pell in the latest of the 32 Beats series.

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Oh yeah, because the boss will want me to mention it… the Fantasy Guide will be dropping tomorrow. Obtain yours at Dobber Sports. Better yet, get it as part of a Keeper League Fantasy Pack or an Ultimate Fantasy Pack. 

Continuing on from yesterday, here are thoughts from the "other" eight teams that I contributed to in the fantasy guide. I didn't complete the projections (throw your tomatoes at Dobber for those), but I did put my semi-decent writing skills to good use in the many writeups.

Seattle

Let's say Seattle performs more like a typical expansion team than Vegas did. Who would be at the top of their trade bait list? How about longtime Flame Mark Giordano, who will be 38 at that time. With one more year left on his contract, Giordano would be the perfect rental for a team that has both Stanley Cup hopes and cap space ($6.75 million cap hit). Maybe if the Kraken retain some of that cap space, they can get a decent pick or prospect in return. Just thinking way ahead.

St. Louis

Dobber mentioned that he had to include Jack Eichel in his Buffalo projections. What about Tarasenko in the St. Louis projections? Tarasenko won't have quite the trickle-down impact as Eichel will, since he's not a center and is arguably not even first-line caliber anymore. Yet one look at the St. Louis depth chart over at Frozen Tools shows Tank as the only right wing. Don't be fooled: All of Pavel Buchnevich, Brandon Saad, David Perron, Jordan Kyrou, and Robert Thomas show as having right wing as one of their positions on CapFriendly. The Blues will be fine, even if the return on Tarasenko is minimal.

Tampa Bay

Winning back-to-back Stanley Cups in the span of 12 months is quite an accomplishment, given the amount of wear and tear from all the hockey. The Lightning went on two Stanley Cup runs in less than a year. They won one cup on September 28, 2020, then the other followed on July 7, 2021. So two cup runs in a little over nine months. If something sinks the Lightning in 2021-22, it'll be injuries. It was no secret that Victor Hedman and Nikita Kucherov (among others) were battling something during the playoffs. Don't forget that this offseason will be a little shorter than normal as well, reducing healing time.  

Toronto

The Leafs have their four big contracts, which total $40 million. That doesn't leave them a lot of room for everything else. A Morgan Rielly decision is looming, as he is on the final year of his contract. We've seen this summer that teams are willing to pony up to keep their top-tier defensemen (Zach Werenski, Darnell Nurse). And if their teams can't/won't pay them, these defensemen will find the money from other teams (Seth Jones, Dougie Hamilton, Torey Krug last season). This may not turn out well for the Leafs if they are hoping to retain Rielly.

Vancouver

Canucks' offense, last two seasons:

2019-20: 3.25 GF/GP (8^th), 24.2 PP% (4^th)

2020-21: 2.64 GF/GP (24^th), 17.4 PP% (25^th)

At the risk of sounding like a homer, I think the Canucks are going to score a lot of goals this year. Bringing in Conor Garland, Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Vasily Podkolzin, having a healthy (and signed) Elias Pettersson, no COVID outbreaks (hopefully), and this team could rebound scoring-wise. A power play of Pettersson, Brock Boeser, Bo Horvat, J.T. Miller, and Quinn Hughes should score more than once every two games, which was the case in 2020-21.

Vegas

Reilly Smith is in a contract year. Never mind the process of needing time to acclimatize to a new environment, Smith's best seasons are his first with a new team.

2013-14 Boston: 51 points (season after: 40 points)

2015-16 Florida: 50 points (season after: 36 points)

2017-18 Vegas: 60 points in 67 games (seasons after: 53, 54, 25 points)

I realize Smith will be 31 next offseason, but maybe wait a year on him? His 0.47 PTS/GP pace from 2020-21 was his lowest in his four seasons with Vegas, while his 11 assists were his lowest total since 2012-13, when he played just 37 games for Dallas. The assist total has nowhere to go but up, since he had a very low secondary assist percentage of 27.3%.

Washington

I'm kind of surprised Ilya Samsonov signed for only one season, although I don't think Capitals fans are enamored with him. Since the contract is only one season, it's critical for him to establish himself as the starter this season. Vitek Vanecek is also on the books for one more season (both will be RFAs), so we may have a good ol' fashioned goaltending showdown. The Capitals are also spending less than $3 million on the pair, which is far less than some teams are paying for one goalie.

Winnipeg

I was going to discuss Neal Pionk here, but Mike took the words out of my mouth by mentioning Pionk's 82-game paces earlier this week: 51 points, 182 shots, 23 PPPs, 198 hits, 100 blocks, 34 PIMs. Pionk is definitely a Top 100 Roto Rankings option, but I'd like him even more if he can secure first-unit power-play minutes.

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For more fantasy hockey discussion, or to reach out to me, you can follow me on Twitter @Ian_Gooding