Welcome back to Forum Buzz, where I peruse the DobberHockey Forums and weigh in on active, heavily debated, or otherwise relevant recent threads, reminding folks just how great a resource the Forums are. Nearly anything might be covered here, other than trades and signings, which usually get their own separate write-ups on the main site and are also normally covered in the next day’s Ramblings, or questions that are specific to salary cap issues, which is the domain of the weekly Capped column. To access the specific forum thread on which a question is based, click on the “Topic” for that question.

Topic #1 – In a H2H standard roto league, which four of these seven should be kept, with the desire being to keep those who will be best long term even if it takes them more time to reach their full potential: Marco Rossi, Cole Perfetti, Eeli Tolvanen, Cody Glass, Morgan Frost, Sam Bennett, Connor McMichael?

Right off the bat there are two Nashville guys on the list, with the caveat being it's been over a decade since ANY Nashville forward scored 65 points. That having been said, perhaps Nashville will be undergoing a transformation thanks to the likes of Tolvanen, Glass and Philip Tomasino. Tolvanen also is a nice multi-cat contributor. Even though there is a long-term viewpoint at play, I'd probably only keep one of the two, if either.

Perfetti seems like an easy pick. He has center/wing versatility, looked great in the AHL, and should get to Winnipeg in enough time to be mentored by Blake Wheeler and/or Mark Scheifele but then also to have Nicolaj Ehlers and Kyle Connor around in their primes. I prefer him to McMichael, as Washington's core is older and they don't have a lot of young talent in the pipeline to contribute once the likes of Alex Ovechkin, Niklas Backstrom, T.J. Oshie, John Carlson and even Evgeni Kuznetsov slow. With Frost, there are also aging Flyers, but they have Travis Konecny and Joel Farabee ready to step in and shine. McMichael is likely a tough omit, but both Perfetti and Frost should be among the four rather than him.

Rossi is a tough one, as like Nashville there are "team" issues, which, in the case of the Wild, is they don't play stars nearly as much as other teams, with even phenom Kirill Kaprizov barely getting more than 18:00 per game and 3:00 on the PP. Still, Rossi can play center and the Wild need all the help they can get at the position, so he too should make the cut, as he'll pan out soon and a few years down the road Minnesota might have rethought its ice time philosophy.

Bennett is the oldest of the seven by a decent margin, but Florida showed its confidence in him via his new deal and he's a great stat stuffer. There is, however, the worry he played at a higher level only in order to get a new deal and he might revert to his disappointing self now that he's been paid and due to Florida having no shortage of top six winger options.

It boils down to Tolvanen and Bennett for the last spot, with Glass not being an option due to playing the deepest position in hockey plus not being as valuable in a roto league as Tolvanen. If it was me, I think I'd roll the dice with Tolvanen. Nashville should be a very good team in a few years. Florida, however, is in win now mode, and its two best players – Aleksander Barkov and Jonathan Huberdeau – will be UFAs in, respectively, 2022 and 2023, with it being likely they lose one or even both. Given this, plus Bennett's age, I'm leaning to keeping Tolvanen, plus Perfetti, Frost, and Rossi.

Topic #2 – In a keeper league with G A +/- PIM PPP SOG W SV% GAA SHO as categories, each team is allocated 15 "keeper points," with forwards costing 3 keeper points each, defensemen 2 keeper points each, goalies 5 keeper points each, rookie (<82 games) skaters 1 keeper point each, and rookie goalies 3 keeper points each. Who should be kept of the following: Mitch Marner, Jake Guentzel, Brady Tkachuk, Mark Scheifele, Evgeni Malkin, Nick Suzuki, Adam Fox, Tyson Barrie, Kris Letang, Quinn Hughes, Alexis Lafreniere, Cole Caufield, Philipp Grubauer, Ilya Sorokin, Jeremy Swayman?

Keeping Caufield and Lafreniere is a definite, as they're cheap but also have amazing long term and even solid short term potential. Defensemen also are inexpensive, and a case could be made to retain all four, although of course that would be too many unless six defensemen are in active rosters, which I highly doubt. Fox is the best bet, and Barrie sticking in Edmonton makes him a must keep. Letang would have been in contention had HIT and BLK been categories, yet without them he's probably not retainable. Hughes is best in points only; but the omission of HIT and BLK makes him less of a multicat drag, and his +/- should improve now that the Canucks added Oliver Ekman-Larsson, allowing the team to shelter Hughes even more.

Here's the problem though – if Hughes is kept, that would bring the keeper points total to eight thus far. But that's not a good number, as there are no more rookies left other than goalies, who cost three points, and forwards cost 3 each, which would mean if the team kept two forwards or a forward and rookie goalie it would have an extra keeper point that goes wasted. As such, it probably makes sense to only keep two defensemen such that three forwards or two forwards and a rookie goalie can be kept. As tough as it is to lose Hughes, Barrie in Edmonton is too good not to have, plus Fox covers the team in terms of future rearguard studs. Of course if offseason trading is allowed try to move Hughes, as he should be an upgrade to some team.

I'd also go with three forwards rather than retaining Sorokin, who likely stays in, for this league, a suboptimal time share. Which three forwards make the cut? Even without HIT I think Tkachuk is one, as his SOG and PIM are superb and the hope is his scoring should rise. Marner would be the second forward, as 90-point downside players are gold. If this was two years ago Malkin would be an easy third pick; but not only did he get hurt as usual in 2020-21, but he's starting 2021-22 on the shelf already. Sure he might rebound once he plays; however, he's not worth the risk/reward when Scheifele and Guentzel are options. Suzuki has a bright future; however, he doesn't measure up in comparison to the other possibilities.

Of Scheifele and Guentzel, give me Guentzel. Scheifele came back to earth after a scorching start and has an 80-85 point ceiling, whereas Guentzel had an off year and still scored at an 83 point pace plus shoots a lot more than Scheifele. As with Hughes, it would be wise to shop Scheifele, trying to sell him as being better than an 80-85 point guy, which is what he appears because he didn't have time to completely come back to earth during a 56 game season.

The 15 keeper points are allocated as Lafreniere and Caufield (total of two keeper points), Fox and Barrie (total of four keeper points), and Tkachuk, Marner, and Guentzel (total of nine keeper points). Not having centers or goalies is a bit of a tough pill to swallow; however, center is the deepest position in fantasy and goalies likely won't be kept because of their rate plus as we have seen lately other than a couple of surefire studs the best goalies often are not the ones who are most highly regarded going into the season.

Topic #3 – What is the outlook for MacKenzie Weegar, especially now with Keith Yandle gone?

I'll cut to the chase and say we've seen the best we'll likely ever see from Weegar. For him to perform as well as he did in 2020-21 had little to nothing to do with Yandle's presence; rather it was because of Aaron Ekblad being out, as in the 19 contests Ekblad missed at end of 2020-21 Weegar tallied 17 of his 36 points, meaning he had 19 points in his other 37 contests, for barely a point per every other game pace.

Moreover, when Ekblad was healthy, Florida ran PP1 with two defensemen – him and Yandle. Once Ekblad was out of the picture, Weegar barely sniffed the PP. That is important because defensemen need PP time – and PPPts – to be top scorers. Need proof? Weegar's 2020-21 PP scoring would have projected to be a mere 4.5 PPPts over 82 games. Of the 106 instances of a defenseman scoring 55 points – which was Weegar's pace in 2020-21 – in a season dating back to 2000-01, the lowest PPPt total was 12, or more than double Weegar's projected rate. In fact, if we lower the point threshold to only 50, we get 182 instances yet still none had fewer than 12 PPPts. What if we lower it to 45 points? We get a total of 290 instances, with a grand total of one (Ryan McDonagh in 2018-19) having fewer than nine PPPts, or double what Weegar would likely have received if 2020-21 had been 82 games.

McDonagh is seemingly not a bad parallel, as he was a 30-40 point d-man who three times scored at a pace of 45 or 46. But McDonagh had his first strong season at age 24, whereas Weegar didn't break out until 27. As such, I'm not sure McDonagh is an ideal comparable.

A more apt comparison would be Marc-Edouard Vlasic, who was a very good defenseman in real life but never had a strong fantasy season until somehow the stars magically aligned for him in 2015-16, also at age 27, to see him score at a 48-point rate. Even then, Vlasic had ten PPPts in 69 games. Did Vlasic parlay that into big numbers going forward? No. He went back to the player he always had been, scoring in the 25-30 point range. Am I saying Weegar's output will drop that low? Probably not. Instead, look for him to score in the 35- to 40-point range, and that's assuming Weegar still receives ample ice time and Florida remains a strong offensive team. Expecting anything close to what we saw from Weegar in 2020-21 would be a mistake given how he'll be deployed and the reality of what it takes for a rearguard to produce 45+ points.

Topic #4 – In a ten team, points-only, keep 16 league where there are 17 active skaters (any position), a team is keeping three goalies plus the following skaters: Evgeni Malkin, Quinn Hughes, Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, Patrik Laine, Victor Hedman, Cale Makar, Anze Kopitar and Connor McDavid. What four other skater keepers should be chosen from Jakub Voracek, Kevin Fiala, Dougie Hamilton, Conor Garland, Matthew Boldy, Shea Theodore, Bryan Rust, Vincent Trocheck, Denis Gurianov, and Morgan Rielly?

First things first – let's look at the 12 planned keepers to see if any should be rethought. The ones who jump out as possible cuts are Malkin, Laine, and Kopitar. Yes, there is an IR in the league, but Malkin looked like he'd slowed even when healthy in 2020-21 and the team's two best wingers – Jake Guentzel and Bryan Rust – aren't on his line. Kopitar is consistent, but the influx of youth in LA might be cause for concern. Laine is definitely not at his best in points only, and it's not clear whether Columbus has done enough to surround him with supporting talent.

Another thing that sticks out is three defensemen are being kept. Granted, they all have 60-point downside; but with positions not mattering, it's unclear whether stocking one's team with multiple d-men is a recipe for success. Then again, of the top 160 scorers for 2020-21, a total of 25 were rearguards, including these three in the top 75. As such, provided there aren't better options at forward, it might indeed be wise to keep all three, plus even others.

As for the list of those being considered for the other spots, it's fair to say it's not full of the highest impact forwards. The three d-men, however, namely Hamilton, Theodore and Rielly, could be just as good as the other three already being kept, although Rielly seemingly has morphed into more of a team first, fantasy second player, so he probably isn't making the cut. Still, let's put down Theodore and Hamilton as maybes.

In terms of the forwards, Gurianov and Boldy are definite non-keeps. Trocheck had a very solid bounce back season; but he's not best in points only and ended 2020-21 with four points in nine games, and points coming in only two of the nine contests. Also, his OZ% is so low as to raise red flags about his scoring pace. He's a maybe. Garland could be a huge asset if placed on the top line; but signs point to him instead flanking Bo Horvat, and as such he's not a keep. Voracek just turned 32 but has scored at a 65-70 point pace in the past three seasons and should be motivated to succeed after being traded back to the Blue Jackets. He's also a maybe. Rust is locked into a line with Sidney Crosby, yet his SH% came back to earth somewhat in 2020-21 and he failed to produce as well on the PP, in addition to running hot and cold. He's a maybe as well. Fiala is limited by being on Minnesota, where ice time for even its best forwards is limited; but in each of the past two seasons he caught fire for a big chunk of the end of the season, such that it seems like only a matter of time before he connects the dots enough to play at a top level for the entire campaign. He's a definite keep.

The five maybes are Hamilton, Theodore, Trocheck, Rust, and Voracek. If all five are kept, two of the 12 would need to not be kept, probably Malkin or Laine due to their risks. Still, with them while there are risks, there also are potential large rewards, large enough that they likely should be "fingers crossed" keepers, meaning two of the five would be omitted, and those two, I think, should be Voracek and Rust. If Voracek is doing well, then so too should be Laine, so that base is already covered. Rust seems like a one-year wonder, ala Chris Kunitz. That means keeping five defensemen among 17 skaters; but all five have 60-point downside, with shots at getting 70+ points, plus other than Hedman they're young enough to be assets for many years.

Topic #5 – In a 12 league where 20 players are rostered (9F, 4D, 2G start), the cap is $82M and the categories are points only for skaters, W and SO for goalies and no offseason trading is allowed, which seven of the following players should be kept: Ryan O'Reilly, David Perron, J.T. Miller, Jack Hughes, Elias Lindholm, Sean Couturier, Teuvo Teravainen, Nikolaj Ehlers, Evgeni Malkin, Kevin Fiala, Roope Hintz, Samuel Girard, Jakob Chychrun, Torey Krug, Charlie McAvoy, Neal Pionk, Mikhael Sergachev, Miro Heiskanen, Connor Hellebuyck, Jacob Markstrom, Ilya Samsonov, Jordan Binnington, Carter Hart, Darcy Kuemper, Linus Ullmark.

I'll echo what some in the Forum thread indicated, namely this team is STACKED in net. It's a shame offseason trading is not permitted, as it will lose several quality netminders by not being able to keep them. The question also is whether to keep extras to try and trade from a position of strength. We'll see about that after we look at the bigger picture.

With just over $4M to spend per player, contract size matters quite a bit, and likely rules out, for d-men, the newly re-signed and expensive Heiskanen, as well as Krug, and makes McAvoy, who'll get a new deal after this season, less attractive. Girard is tempting though, as he showed he can still thrive despite Cale Makar, and is signed at a decent rate for a number of years.

For forwards, ROR and Malkin are too expensive, and Couturier will go from a bargain deal to perhaps double his salary after 2021-22. Fiala's cap hit is not yet known as I'm writing this, but likely can't be too high for the Wild, who'll be dealing with penalties from the Ryan Suter and Zach Parise buyouts. Hughes is inexpensive and could be coming into his own, and Hintz has two more seasons at a bargain rate, although the return of Tyler Seguin might negatively affect his value. Teravainen and Miller are both signed for a decent number, with TT having several more seasons but Miller perhaps being lower risk. Ehlers also has a number of years at a rate that seems decent now but could be a bargain before all is said and done. For goalies, Hellebuyck is too elite to worry about his salary, whereas Kuemper is now in a great situation but only signed for one more year plus is a Band-Aid Boy, whereas Samsonov is a bargain but the Caps did pay to get Vitek Vanacek back, making Samsonov's value going forward less clear.

For sure Hughes and Hellebuyck are keepers. I also think the next three are pretty clearcut. I believe Ehlers has enough value to keep given the length and cost of his deal. Fiala should sign cheaply enough – and provide enough value – to be a keeper. I'm holding Teravainen too, as although Miller is a bit cheaper TT is signed for longer and last season likely underperformed due to injury.

That leaves two spots, and the question is whether to protect two more goalies, with the goal of ransoming one off during the season, or just one more netminder and another skater, or even keep two skaters. In a 12-team league with seven keepers each, not even 100 players will be kept in total, meaning lots of goalies will be out there. In fact, a case could be made just to keep Hellebuyck, as Kuemper is injury prone and signed for just another season and Samsonov might not be "the guy," whereas Binnington and Markstrom are undisputed starters but neither played well in 2020-21. Meanwhile, Hart and Ullmark both could be very good, or perhaps not.

In the end, I keep Hellebuyck as the only goalie and opt for both McAvoy and Girard, the former because he's primed to break out and the latter due to him being a solid and not expensive option. The seven keepers are Hughes, Hellebuyck, Ehlers, Fiala, Teravainen, McAvoy and Girard. If a goalie is really wanted, go with Samsonov, Kuemper, or Hart over Girard.

Topic #6 – In a points only league, which four will produce the best in the next season or two: Anthony Beauvillier, Denis Gurianov, Zach Hyman, Jared McCann, Timo Meier, Sean Monahan, Clayton Keller, Victor Arvidsson, Philip Danault, Ryan Donato, Kevin Labanc?

Right off the bat I'm eliminating Ryan Donato, as there was a reason he's played for three teams by age 25, was unqualified by a team as shallow as the Sharks, and hadn't signed a deal as of the date I submitted this column. He's probably not even in the NHL a year from now, if not earlier. I'm also not a fan of Labanc, whom I covered in Goldipucks, where I noted that his great season was an outlier due to such high PPPts despite such low SOG and by Q4 2020-21 was out of the top six in San Jose, which, as noted with Donato, needs all the scoring help it can get.

Danault is not on the list either. The Kings have Anze Kopitar and a wealth of young talent at the center position, such that Danault is all but assured to be earmarked for the bottom six sooner rather than later. I'm also omitting Gurianov. He's too goal-centric and currently he just doesn't get the minutes needed to be a consistent scorer. Yes, he's seen his points and minutes climb with each passing season and the Dallas wingers are aging; however, he's been quite coddled in terms of his OZ in each of his two full seasons. If we're principally interested in the next 1-2 seasons, I don't think he will be good enough, soon enough.

Beauvillier is a tough one. For 10-15 game stretches he looks unstoppable; however, he's yet to be able to demonstrate consistency, such that his scoring pace has remained under 50. On the plus side, he's still only 24 and locked into the top six; but his other shortcoming is he doesn't do well on the PP, making it so likely there are better choices, especially if we're focusing mainly on the next 1-2 years.

On the other end of the spectrum I see three surer things. Keller has a top tier pedigree and the best chance, in my opinion, of a realistic breakout. I'm also taking Arvidsson, as while he has clearly disappointed recently, LA coveted him and will give him every chance to shine and the change of scenery should serve him well, particularly since Nashville isn't a place for forwards to shine, with none having passed the 65-point threshold in a full season in over a decade.

I'm also keeping Monahan, as it has since been revealed he played 2020-21 injured, and if we toss out that season his past stats are solid enough and he's locked into a top line role. To me, that's more than enough to make the cut.

That leaves one spot for Meier, McCann and Hyman. Meier looked to be on the fast track to stardom after posting 69 points at age 22, but since then he's seen his scoring rate drop for two straight seasons. Still, he continues to shoot a ton and the Sharks have little choice but to lean on him to help their struggling offense.

Hyman being on Edmonton is alluring, as we saw during his time in Toronto that he can be put on a scoring line and shine, and if he plays with Connor McDavid and/or Leon Draisaitl things could be even better. McCann will get great deployment on the Kraken; but elite players won't surround him as occurred in Pittsburgh, plus Seattle does not seem like it's poised for early success ala Vegas.

I like Hyman. His demonstrated usage and success playing alongside top centers in Toronto, plus Edmonton paying to get him, makes me think they have him earmarked for a similar role with them, in which case 60 points is his downside, which is likely close to the upside for Meier and McCann.

The four would be Keller, Arvidsson, Monahan and Hyman.

Topic #7 – In a league where goals are worth two points and assists worth one, who is more valuable: Ivan Provorov or Filip Hronek?

Both rearguards have new company on their blueline, Hronek in the form of Nick Leddy, and Provorov via Ryan Ellis, Keith Yandle and Rasmus Ristolainen. Detroit also should see Moritz Seider join the team soon. The question is what does this do each's value?

Although Philly added more bodies, I believe the impact to Provorov won't be significant. He will lose PP time; but he was already taking the ice for less than half his team's man advantage minutes. One key is although Provorov's overall point total over the last four seasons puts him 30th among d-men in points, he ranked 12th in goals, which is a big advantage in this league. Plus, he did this while having an OZ% that ranged from 42.4% -47.7%, and is unlikely to go down further despite Yandle, who'll need to be coddled, and Ellis, who'll probably get easier minutes as well. Instead, look for Ristolainen to probably will shoulder the toughest minutes, as his OZ% was 40.3% last season.

Hronek has been a steady Eddie, producing right below a point per every other game in each of his three seasons. That's pretty good for a Detroit team that has struggled to score. Where Leddy figures to fit in is unclear, perhaps benefitting or hurting Hronek. Unlike Provorov, Hronek is not a goal scorer, sitting tied for 61st among d-men in his three seasons despite a point total that ties him for 51st. We also can't underestimate Seider, who has looked very strong and should be arriving in Detroit sooner rather than later.

If this was a pure points only league I might view this as a toss-up; however, with the goals bonus and Ristolainen likely ensuring Provorov isn't deployed in situations more unfavorable to scoring, I give the slight edge to Provorov.

Topic #8 – In a 10 team, keep 16 league with an $81.5M AAV salary cap and 32 man rosters and 20 active players, with a minimum of five defensemen and a maximum of seven, and with scoring categories of G, A, PPA, PPG, +/-, HIT, Shifts, TOI, PEN, GAA, SV, SV%, TOI, W+SO, a GM intends to keep Nathan MacKinnon, Brayden Schenn, Alex DeBrincat, Jack Eichel. JT Miller, Kirill Kaprizov, Kirby Dach, Cole Caufield, Shea Theodore, Jamie Drysdale, and Adam Boqvist and needs to pick five more from Chris Kreider, Denis Gurianov, Joe Pavelski, Josh Anderson, Josh Norris, Eeli Tolvanen, Vitali Kravtsov, Jakob Chychrun, Evan Bouchard, Carter Hart, Ilya Samsonov, James Reimer. What should s/he do?

First off, I know Boqvist is cheap; however, he's now in Columbus and behind Zach Werenski. That is not an ideal situation, and I prefer Bouchard to him, since as we've seen in Colorado on high scoring teams there is room for a young defensemen – in that case Samuel Girard – to still be productive even if he's not on PP1 or the top option for rearguard offense. The rest of the 11 listed keepers seem fine, meaning there needs to be four more from Kreider, Gurianov, Pavelski, Anderson, Norris, Tolvanen, Kravtsov, Chychrun, and the three goalies.

Right off the bat Reimer is out since he's a non-factor, and Pavelski is expensive and also likely to start to slow. Kreider too is a luxury this team cannot afford, especially since he has shown he's basically a 50-point guy, and that's before Alexis Lafreniere and Kaapo Kakko start to shine. And I'm not going with Kravtsov, as he's not done enough to merit keeping.

In the forum thread it was presumed a goalie would not be kept; but at minimum I'm keeping at least one given the categories. With SV counting, probably Hart is the guy to keep, as even if he struggles he's still likely to get the lion's share of starts in Philly. Beyond him, I see Norris as an easy keep. He flourished as a rookie, finishing 41st in PPPts among forwards despite the 71st most PP minutes on a team ranked 26th in PP conversion, plus he tallied his 35 points in 30 games, showing amazing consistency. He's a great keep.

Given what we saw from him, and the categories, I also like Tolvanen. Nashville is about to have an influx of youth, between him, Philip Tomasino and Cody Glass, perhaps revamping the team in a few seasons into more of one where forwards are top scorers.

Even though Arizona added Shayne Gostisbehere, Chychrun is too good not to still produce. He also is signed for a number of years, securing him for a decent price.

The last keeper probably is Gurianov. He's been improving with each passing season. Once the likes of Jamie Benn, Alexander Radulov, and Pavelski fade due to age in a few years, he should be in his prime and ready to assume a significant role.

In review, I'd swap in Bouchard for Boqvist, then keep Hart, Norris, Chychrun and Gurianov. That gives a solid mix of value and cost, plus keeps the present and future in mind.

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One quick note – In addressing the topics my advice might seem like it was contradictory or at least inconsistent in some instances. The reason is no two circumstances are alike, and what is sensible in one case can be not the right path in another.

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Questions for Mailbag column needed The upcoming edition of the mailbag is already full. But you should feel free to send questions for the next one, although note that it will publish on September 29th, so if you have keeper questions you shouldn't send them unless you can wait until them for an answer. To get your question(s) to me, either private message “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums or, instead, send an email to [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line.