What do we make of the San Jose Sharks? At this point, given all that's gone on this offseason, I am assuming that Evander Kane is not going to be in the lineup opening night. They have an aging blue line that is wildly overpaid and the trio of Burns/Karlsson/Vlasic are all in decline. In fact, in the case of Vlasic, he's just bottomed-out as a bad defenceman, regardless of his salary. They don't really have many prospects on the way; guys like Ryan Merkley and Jonathan Dahlen may help a bit. But they just don't have the players coming like Los Angeles does, or a stocked draft pick cupboard like Arizona. This team just… is who they are. So can they be better than last year?

We are doing our offseason team-by-team previews and we'll get to San Jose eventually (to-date available here). For that reason, I won't dig super deep. But this team's big problem last year was finishing, coming in 27^th by overall shooting percentage. Just one percent higher, from 8.7 percent to 9.7 percent, would have only brought them to the middle of the pack finishing-wise. But a jump of just 8.7 to 9.7 percent gives them 17 more goals on the year and brings them from 25^th in scoring to 15^th, and just behind Boston. This team really doesn't need some sort of massive rebound to be a decent scoring environment. The question is if relatively the same lineup can do it. I have my doubts, given a lot of this relies on rebound seasons from the blue line.

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Kane possibly being suspended also brings up the possibility of more minutes for Timo Meier. If Kane is out of the lineup, with Ryan Donato gone, that is two of the forwards that were ahead of Meier on the PP depth chart last year. (Oh, and Meier was the most productive forward on San Jose's power play last year. In fact, over the last three years, of all forwards the Sharks will have in the lineup this year, Meier has been their most productive. That he has infrequently got top PP minutes is very frustrating, and hopefully that ends this season.)

Meier is still a massive goal-scoring threat. That his numbers have declined in recent seasons shouldn't mask that. Even though his goals/game have declined for two years straight now, Meier is still top-25 in the league in goals/60 at 5-on-5, in line with names like Brayden Point, Kyle Connor, and Alex DeBrincat. What happens if Meier is suddenly playing 18 minutes a night, including top PP minutes, rather than 16 minutes a night, largely getting secondary PP minutes? I have a feeling that 30 goals is back on the table.

All this, of course, depends on Meier getting a bigger role with the team. He just won't have significant fantasy value skating 16 minutes a night. It will be hard to peg down exactly what will happen until we get a clarification on Kane's situation but I'm just assuming he won't be in the lineup at the start of the season. The allegations are just far too serious, even for the NHL. It sucks to have to think about his NHL impact by not being in the lineup because of his off-ice behaviour, but that's the gambit.

Regardless, I am bullish on Meier this year. There won't be much chatter around the Sharks because they should be a bad team, and that should depress his ADP, on top of his underperformance last year. I am excited to draft Meier well outside the top-100.

Just for a quick reference, I didn't see Meier in Yahoo's Draft Analysis, which means he hasn't been drafted inside the top-300 or so picks. I have to think it's some sort of oversight, but I see wingers going around pick 130-150 like Hyman, Kreider, and Fiala, so maybe it's not. Maybe we will get Meier around pick-200. Even in non-hits leagues, where his value is depressed, this is a complete gift. Anytime outside the top-100 in hits leagues is good value. At worst, we're probably in possession of a 20-goal, 200-shot, 125-hit winger. And there is a lot of upside beyond that. Buy, buy, buy.

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Another guy that popped into my head when talking about the Sharks was Rudolfs Balcers. He had a decent year for the Sharks with eight goals in 41 games, playing under 15 minutes a night. He also scored all those goals at even strength, just FYI.

It wasn't a big jump forward for Balcers. His shot rate was fine but his passing left something to be desired (per Corey Sznajder's data). He was also below-average in carry-in percentage, or zone entries with control, but not light-years below. It won't take much improvement to be average.

This may not sound flattering, but I mean it as a compliment: Balcers at least is starting to look like an above-average forward. He has no problem getting to the net, as his expected goals rate is in line with guys like Matthew Tkachuk and Brayden Point. It is just his finishing is below-average, as outlined here by HockeyViz:

But, even if we see his below-average finishing, he was able to drive offence and limit chances at the other end. For his career, he's above-average in offensive and defensive impact, he just needs to turn his finishing around.

I think there's something here. If all goes well over his next couple years, maybe he can turn into a Blake Coleman-type. Somewhere around a 15-20-goal threat with a lot of hits and good defence. That may not sound like a monster fantasy season, but 15 goals, 130 shots, and 150 hits is available for basically nothing in most hits drafts. This team also changed around their power play a lot last year so he may even get some PP1 time every now and then.

Balcers might be a diamond in the rough. He is on my list of targets, particularly in cap leagues.

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When thinking about drafting, the New York Rangers' lineup intrigues me. We know their stars like Panarin, Zibanejad, and Fox. We also know there are reliable players they're going to use a lot like Kreider, Strome, and Goodrow. They also have a bevy of young forwards that will have various roles like Chytil, Kakko, Lafrenière, and Kravtsov. There are a lot of moving parts here. Aside from Ziba/Panarin getting all the prime minutes, how is this going to shake out?

Colin Blackwell and Pavel Buchnevich moving on means there are roles to fill. At the worst, Blackwell is a third-liner while Buch was a first-liner. They don't really have anyone that can step into Buch's role immediately. Honestly, which of Kakko, Laffy, and Kravtsov does anyone trust with nearly 19 minutes a game this year? It is probably a situation where pieces take time everywhere. Maybe Goodrow eats some of Buch's PK minutes, while Laffy takes some PP minutes, and Kakko at even strength. In that sense, players like Kakko and Laffy won't jump from 13-14 minutes to 18-19 immediately. We probably see them climb to about 15-16 minutes as the minutes are spread so it'll help them all a bit, but no one player immensely.

This could end up being a big headache. We know the stars, but how does everyone else fit in? I doubt we get much of a clear picture all year.

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I think we may see a similar problem in Chicago, honestly. Assuming everyone is healthy and ready to go, we know that Toews/Dach will be their top two centres, and Kane/DeBrincat will be in the top-6. As for everyone else? Who knows.

There are a lot of people to consider here. There is Dominik Kubalik, whom I think should be earning 18 minutes a night by now, but the Chicago coaching staff feels differently. They also have Dylan Strome, who was often injured last year and seems to be a forgotten man. They traded for Brett Connolly, have Adam Gaudette finally healthy, and Tyler Johnson was brought in as well. While those aren't the same as having Kakko or Lafrenière, there are important roles to fill, and someone has to fill them.

Personally, I think we see a big year from Adam Gaudette. Not 30 goals or anything, but I think this is the year he starts to make good on his offensive prowess. (I wrote a bit about him a couple months ago.) He is one of the players I will be drafting at the end of deeper drafts.

And don't forget about Connolly, who is a proven 20-goal scorer. If he can get some decent line mates, he'll be fantasy relevant again.

As mentioned, this could be a bit of a headache all season long. We know the stars, but we could see a lot of movement among the lesser players, and that's bad for anyone who likes reliability in fantasy.