As the resident Montreal fan among the Ramblings writers, I figured I should chime in on the Jesperi Kotkaniemi offer-sheet situation.

First thing's first: this is genuinely hilarious. This is the kind of thing that hockey needs more of, not less. The NHL is so genuinely uninteresting outside of the game itself, unlike the NBA or even the NFL. Teams taking shots at each other is not only funny, but it's something that can build on-ice rivalries. While I think it probably has a cooling effect on offer sheets in the league, this is the type of thing that makes the league fun away from the ice surface. The NHL needs a whole lot more of this.

Secondly, as a Montreal fan, the Habs need to take the picks and run. Bergevin has pinned them into a corner cap-wise; they have nearly $70M against the cap next season (assuming Shea Weber doesn't retire) and that's with four defencemen as UFA and all of Suzuki, Evans, and Romanov as RFAs. There just isn't money for a $6.1M qualifying offer to Kotkaniemi if he has another bad season. There probably isn't money for that even if he has a good season. The fact that Bergevin made the mess that he currently has to dig himself out from is irrelevant. Good managers recognize mistakes and learn from them, they don't compound them.

In reality, the Habs probably match because they have no centre depth. Kotkaniemi walking means, uh, Evans as 2C and Perreault as 3C? That's not great. I think Evans could be fine as a 3C for now, but second line is asking too much. It is very fair to ask if Kotkaniemi can handle 17-18 minutes a night too, but I think we can say that Evans is not ready yet.

If it were me, I would just take the picks, turn around, and offer two firsts, a second, Romanov, and Mysak for Jack Eichel. It might not be enough – they probably ask for Suzuki or Caufield – but it's worth the shot. I just think the risk is too big for Kotkaniemi to top out as a decent 3C and the Habs be stuck paying him $6M+ a season for the foreseeable future with major cap issues already.  

It would be interesting to see KK play in Carolina. I think he could fill the Foegele role easily, playing on the third line with Jordan Staal. He could also move up the lineup if necessary, and the Hurricanes have a good, recent track record of developing forwards (Aho, Svech, Necas, Geekie).

This doesn't seem very smart for Carolina, though. It is absolutely hilarious, yes, but if we look at the numbers, we see what they lost:

• Ian Cole + Frederik Andersen + Derek Stepan + Kotkaniemi = $14.85M AAV
• Dougie Hamilton + Alex Nedeljkovic + Warren Foegele = $14.75M AAV

Yeah, it's four players instead of three, but if we add someone like Derick Brassard or Brendan Perlini to the trio, we're within $1M. In other words, this was a choice to not sign Hamilton and keep Ned rather than sign Andersen and offer-sheet Kotkaniemi. This is genuinely funny, I'm just not sure it's smart.

We will see what happens, but the answer seems obvious here. I just don't think it's obvious to Bergevin and that could hurt Montreal in the very near future.

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One role I've been thinking about is the top-line right wing next to Mat Barzal. With Jordan Eberle gone, there are top-line and top PP minutes available with the Islanders. Yes, it's the Islanders, but it's still 17 minutes a night playing almost exclusively with one of the best transition and playmakers in the league. It's worth discussion.

Leo Komarov got some top-line minutes at the end of last season and in the playoffs. That was due to the injury to Anders Lee. As a left shot, I cannot imagine Komarov going to the top line, right wing spot. A 34-year-old with 170 career points playing his off-wing on the top line is a bit too eccentric for my tastes.

One contender is J-G Pageau. He is great on face-offs, an area where Barzal struggles greatly. They are both right shots, which might limit the face-off effectiveness, but I'm wondering if we don't see a Miller/Pettersson situation here. One where both are the same handedness and both take some faceoffs, but one takes many more than the other. It would leave the team short-handed on the third line, though, as this team is not deep down the middle if Pageau plays the wing. He's a contender, but I think he stays as the 3C and is only brought out with Barzal in special situations.

Quite honestly, I don't see how they don't at least start Oliver Wahlstrom up there. He's a genuine offensive dynamo in the making, and someone that can replace Eberle's role in that regard. He is important to that third line because of that scoring, but if the team can bring in Zach Parise (as is strongly rumoured), Parise could help fill the third-line cap in scoring. Something like Parise-Pageau-Panik is a fine third line.

Wahlstrom is going just inside the top-200 in Yahoo! drafts. If I were to draft before training camp starts, I'm probably drafting Wahlstrom somewhere around the 13^th or 14^th round in a 12-team league. In a month's time, if he's skating on the top line in exhibition games, he'll be close to the top-10 rounds.

According to Evolving Hockey, Wahlstrom was a full standard deviation above average both defensively at 5-on-5 and offensively on the power play:

He was also among the leaders in shot rate on the team, just behind Anders Lee. The reason his offensive play-driving isn't great (yet) is he isn't a great playmaker (yet). He was also well below average in zone entry percentage with control, down around Leo Komarov's level. Guys who are bad in transition usually can't drive the play, but that doesn't mean Wahlstrom is a bad offensive player. He has great offensive instincts, he just needs to round out his game.

The need for him to be more well-rounded could be what keeps him from consistent top-line minutes, but I think he's ready. With enough minutes, he has 20 goals, 200 shots, and 100 hits all within reach. That is worth a top-200 pick right now.

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What is the Vegas lineup going to look like?

Pacioretty-Stephenson-Stone

Marchessault-Karlsson-Smith

Dadonov-Roy-Tuch

That doesn't look too bad!

More importantly, though, what about Laurent Brossoit?

Over the last three seasons in Winnipeg, which was only 54 games, Brossoit had a high-danger save percentage of .839. That was higher than now-teammate Robin Lehner and in the 70^th percentile of goalies. He also had a goals saved above expected of 12.2, which was top-10 in the league over those three seasons. That is a cumulative stat, and for reference, Anton Khudobin was at 13.4 GSAx in double the games played. If Brossoit had played the same number of games and had the same performance he always had, he would have been a top-5 goalie by this measure. Lehner, by the way, was sixth, but trailed Brossoit on a per-minute basis significantly.

My question is this: what if Lehner isn't great to start the season? We just saw the team turn the keys over to a goalie they were ready to trade in the offseason in Marc-André Fleury. If Lehner has an .890 save percentage after a month and Brossoit is getting at least half the starts, what does that mean for a goalie playing for a Cup contender in a weak division? Great things, that's what.

As of right now, Lehner is the second goalie off the board in Yahoo! drafts. Conversely, Brossoit isn't even going inside the top-50 goalies. I genuinely do not think there is that big a gap between the two of them, even if Lehner makes 55 starts. What if Lehner only makes 45? Or he's flat-out bad and only starts 35 as Brossoit takes over? We know this team won't hesitate to go with the hot goalie.

For the record, the 2021 Dobber Hockey Guide has Lehner with 55 games played. Again, I don't think there's that big of a gap if he gets, say, 50 and Brossoit gets 30. The choice for a draft pick is clear.

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I think people are sleeping on the Calgary Flames. I think Sutter had a positive impact on the team, even if it didn't immediately reflect in the win column. A full offseason with a normal training camp should do wonders for this team. Just FYI: Calgary was third in the league in expected goal share at 5-on-5 after Sutter took over. (They were just outside the top-10 before that).

This team has the horses to make three good lines. They can do something like this:

Gaudreau-Monahan-Tkachuk

Mangiapane-Lindholm-Coleman

Lucic-Backlund-Dubé

Quite honestly, that is not a bad top-9, provided there are bounce-backs for the likes of Gaudreau and Monahan. They are in a very weak division, with only Vegas as a true contender. If people are down on Gaudreau and Lindholm, now is the time to buy. I think we see a turnaround from this franchise this year, even without Mark Giordano.