Ramblings: The Olympic Risk for Goalies, Players Being Drafted Too High in Yahoo (Sept 4)

Ian Gooding

2021-09-04

The NHL and NHLPA have agreed to allow NHL players to participate in the 2022 Winter Olympics in Beijing. Since the schedule already has a three-week break during February, this announcement should come as no surprise. The agreement also allows the NHL to back out if the COVID situation worsens either in the world or in the form of cancelled NHL games that could not be otherwise rescheduled. This is exciting news, although we will have to remain cautiously optimistic given the unpredictability of COVID in the past year and a half.

I'm always up for international competition featuring the best on best. And I'm even more excited about the possibility of Canada winning another gold medal. 😊 Sidney Crosby and Connor McDavid should get the chance to play on the same team, just as Wayne Gretzky and Mario Lemieux did in 1987.

The one thing I don't like about the Olympics is the interruption to my fantasy leagues (although I do realize that games will be made up later). The Olympics can affect players in terms of extending their seasons, possibly exposing them to injuries, and wearing down teams that have hopes for a long Stanley Cup run. Senators fans may remember the 2006 Olympic injury to Dominik Hasek that caused him to miss the rest of the regular season and postseason. That injury sticks out to me because he was on a couple of my fantasy teams that year.

Maybe one draft strategy is to target goalies and maybe even players that won't get picked for the Olympics? I decided to do some digging on this topic and found that the effect may not be as pronounced as you would think. Check out the before- and after-Olympic numbers for these 2014 Olympic starting goalies, each of which were important fantasy pieces at the time. Not only did these goalies not drop off post-Olympics, but in all cases their ratios actually got better.

NameCountryW-L-OT BeforeW-L-OT AfterGAA BeforeGAA AfterSV% BeforeSV% After
Carey PriceCanada26-17-58-3-02.332.28.925.932
Jonathan QuickUSA16-13-211-4-22.181.86.911.924
Tuukka RaskFinland25-13-411-2-22.111.83.928.935
Henrik LundqvistSweden22-18-311-6-22.442.21.918.926
Sergei BobrovskyRussia20-14-312-6-22.522.13.918.932

If you're wondering if the Olympics could affect a team's playoff run, that theory might not hold ground either. Quick won a Stanley Cup that year, while Lundqvist faced him in the final. Lundqvist's Rangers eliminated Price's Canadiens in the Eastern Conference Final that season as well (although Price was injured for much of that series with the Rangers).

I realize that to truly draw a conclusion from this, I need a larger sample size, such as possibly more goalies from 2014, as well as goaltenders from previous Olympics. The Hasek injury still indicates that some risk is involved from playing extra games. However, I'll also note that the 2014 Olympics are also played on the other side of the world (Russia) as these ones will (China). So although there may be an instance or two of a goalie whose season is negatively impacted, the effect won't be widespread enough to downgrade the elite Olympic-bound starters.

The Ottawa Senators have signed RFA Drake Batherson to a six-year contract with an AAV of $4.975 million. In his first full season with the Sens, Batherson scored 34 points, including 17 goals, in 56 games while primarily playing on the top line with Brady Tkachuk and Josh Norris. These three form a young trio that should continue to improve, so this contract could represent great value for the Senators moving forward. Batherson has an ADP of 179 while being drafted in fewer than half of Yahoo leagues, so there's solid sleeper potential there. 

That value will, of course, be tied to Tkachuk also signing on the dotted line. He and Logan Brown are the only RFAs left for the Sens to sign. Even with the Batherson signing, the Sens still have yet to reach the cap floor, so this appears to simply be a case of Eugene Melnyk playing hardball with the Tkachuk camp. If Melnyk really can't afford what Tkachuk is asking, I wonder how the Senators will stay competitive long term aside from perpetually trading players in their prime for picks and prospects.

The Red Wings have signed Filip Hronek to a three-year contract worth $4.4 million. Remember that as a defenseman, Hronek led the Wings in scoring with 26 points and 11 power-play points in 56 games. That number 1) did not even reach the half-point-per-game mark, and 2) included only two goals, both of which were empty-netters. Hronek also led the Wings in icetime (23:23), which probably wasn't the best idea for his development given his minus-18 and other underlying stats. Hopefully the additions of Moritz Seider and Nick Leddy to the Wings' defense can help with some of those tough minutes.

From a fantasy perpective, Hronek seems to provide great value as an option to fill out fantasy teams that need at least four defensemen. His ADP in Yahoo leagues is 158, and he has only been drafted in one-third of leagues. If the Wings improve their scoring this season, Hronek's numbers could also improve as a result.

The French version of the Fantasy Guide is now available for download! Because I don't remember everything I was taught in late elementary school/high school French, I'll let the tweet below do the talking.

As I've completed more mock draft, I'm starting to notice that ADPs are becoming more accurate. That being said, there are still some players that I've noticed are being drafted a bit too high. These aren't necessarily players I would suggest not to draft, particularly the players with the higher ADPs. It's more about drafting a player in the right spot at a value that seems appropriate, or even simply about preferring one or two other players when drafting in that spot.

Andrei Vasilevskiy (Yahoo ADP: 5)

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I've said this before and I'll say it again: I think Vasilevskiy is the top fantasy goalie, and perhaps even in a tier of his own. So this is more about not picking a goalie this high, particularly when the position has been so volatile in recent years. Although I'm not aware of any injuries, Vasilevskiy has the mileage of two Stanley Cup runs in less than a year. Wear and tear could eventually catch up to Lightning in the form of injuries and complacency (and now Olympics). I'd recommend drafting a more sure-thing scorer here instead.

Cale Makar (Yahoo ADP: 13)

I decided not to pick Makar with the 12th overall pick in my most recent mock draft, opting for the slightly lower ADP Patrick Kane instead. I don't disagree with anyone that says that Makar will be the top-scoring defenseman and will reach a point per game, but this is also about drafting a defenseman in the right spot. Keep in mind that Makar is not heavy on peripherals such as shots, hits, or blocked shots. He has also been an injury risk because he has missed 12 games in each of his two NHL seasons.

Despite what I've said about Makar, I like picking multiple defensemen within the top 100. I've seen people (including myself, but not just me) win leagues by stacking up on defensemen. Why? Because waiver-wire options on defense don't even come close to filling the stats that high-scoring multicategory defensemen can. Three of my first seven picks of my most recent mock draft happened to be defensemen (Dougie Hamilton, Roman Josi, Darnell Nurse). I've also chosen Hamilton and Nurse in multiple mock drafts.

Alex Pietrangelo (Yahoo ADP: 50)

Six defensemen are being drafted ahead of Pietrangelo. As you might expect, all are PP1 options on their respective teams. Pietrangelo? Not so sure. As I said here, I think it's more likely to be Shea Theodore, who is being drafted nearly 30 picks later.

Evgeny Kuznetsov (Yahoo ADP: 68)

COVID messed up a lot of players and teams last season. That being said, Kuznetsov's production has already been trending down for the past three seasons: from 1.05 PTS/GP in 2017-18 to 0.95 PTS/GP to 0.83 PTS/GP to 0.71 PTS/GP in 2020-21. Even if he reverses that trend, he has never been a high-volume shooter, as he has never taken 200 shots in a season. He was also a single-digit power-play producer last season, and won't contribute heavily to hits and blocked shots. As well, the Capitals are believed to be shopping him, although they won't have an easy time finding a taker for his $7.8 million contract.

Robby Fabbri (Yahoo ADP: 107)

I'm not sure if Fabbri ended up this high by accident when Yahoo's initial rankings first appeared. The fact that he wasn't autopicked in any of my mock drafts and is only 5 percent rostered seems reassuring. Scoring isn't a problem with Fabbri, who finished with the highest point-per-game average (0.6 PTS/GP) among Red Wings who had played at least as many games (30 GP). Even if you do roll the dice on him at some point, you have to take a significant injury discount, as he has missed at least 10 games in each NHL season he has played.

Zach Whitecloud (Yahoo ADP: 139)

When I've seen Whitecloud play, he seems like a dependable defender for the Golden Knights. However, he's a defenseman whose style of play doesn't translate well to the fantasy game. He's a low-scoring defenseman who receives the equivalent of third-pair minutes. Although he finished below 100 in both hits and blocked shots, he has the potential to exceed 100 in both categories over a full season and potentially with more icetime. There isn't really anything appealing enough for you to consider drafting him at this spot, though.

For more fantasy hockey discussion, or to reach out to me, you can follow me on Twitter @Ian_Gooding

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