We are just over three weeks from puck drop on the 2021-22 NHL season.  No better way to reignite the Capped article then to start of with a team by team, buy-sell series.

I will be excluding all entry-level contract players as well as all your elite players/superstars. Those player values speak for themselves. Player values may differ if you are not in a cap league.

Most of these players will be starting new contracts or be expected to have large swings in value. Let's dive right in.

Anaheim Ducks

BUY: Troy Terry (RW) $1.45m – 2 years

I'm pretty sure this isn't how you expected this to start. The popular choice would have been Maxime Comtois (2.037M), which is exactly why he wasn't chosen. Comtois is going to cost a lot more then Terry to obtain.

There is not a lot of right-wing depth on the Ducks. A top six spot is ripe for the picking. There actually isn't a fully defined first power play unit on the Ducks either. Entering his fourth NHL season, this will be his first opportunity to play a full 82 game schedule. Forty points feels like his floor this year. Sadly, the Ducks are an offensively starved team. Setting point expectations beyond 50 points seems unrealistic. At $1.45M, 40-45 points would be a strong return. Let's not forget he passes his breakout threshold at game 68 of the season and has another year with this cap hit.

SELL: Kevin Shattenkirk (D) $3.9M – 2 years

As a power-play specialist Shattenkirk is about to see his value diminish more than it already has. Jamie Drysdale appears primed to swipe the lone defensive spot on the first power play unit away from him. I'm sure he will see sporadic first unit playing time when Drysdale struggles and very likely start the year in that role, as the season goes the swing in ice time to Drysdale will only increase.

The talent drop from the first power play unit to the second unit is significant. The best play is likely to hold until the season starts or any semblance of a hot streak, two or three game point streak take what you can get and move him out.

Arizona Coyotes

BUY: Jacob Chychrun (D) $4.6M, 4 years

His coming-out party was last year. Now that Goligoski has moved on, Chychrun is really the only offensive option on the Coyotes back end.

This team will be battling for Shane Wright odds all season yet Chychrun still has a legitimate shot at a 50-plus point season. He is the only real buy option on the team this season. With big money thrown at defencemen this summer, finding a 50-plus point option that can also deliver hits and blocks at $4.6M just got that much harder. He gives you as much or more in points leagues as Zack Werenski and Seth Jones, better peripherals at half the cap hit.

SELL: Nick Schmaltz © $5.8M, 5 years.

This sell is all about the team situation. Three of the worst Vancouver Canucks in recent memory appear to be third liners for Arizona this season. There is no offensive depth on this team. Opponents will be able to really lean on the top players, which is going to hamper production. It is going to be really difficult for Schmaltz to live up to this contract. I don't have any interest in holding onto a player for one, two, perhaps three years with a faint hope the prospects mature and he starts giving fair value on this deal. Cap space is hard to come by. Let someone else shoulder that burden.

Boston Bruins

BUY: Jake DeBrusk (RW) $3.675M, 1 year RFA

Yep, this is a risky proposal but, with some players, you just love what they bring. At a minimum I expect him to return to his 40-point self. Most expected DeBrusk to have delivered a 50-point pace last year.  Healthy, I expect him to finally break the 50-point barrier in 2021/22. 

The one thing you can count on in Boston is players signing fantasy friendly deals. With seemingly everyone on this team signed to really reasonable contracts, don't expect DeBrusk to break the Bruins bank. This should make him a solid long-term play as well.

SELL: Charlie Coyle (C), $5.25M, 5 years

I don't foresee him being the second line center option Boston needs to replace David Krejci. I don't see Coyle putting up more than 55-points. That is best-case scenario. At 29, this contract already looks like it is not going to age well. There should be a window before Christmas to offload Coyle for a decent return.

BUFFALO SABRES

BUY: Casey Mittelstadt (C), $2.5M, 3 years

The new poster boy for why you do not give up on prospects. Some just need more time. With 17-points in his final 22 games played last year, Mittelstadt appears to have finally arrived. Note, this was without Taylor Hall or Jack Eichel.

He should deliver 20 points per million on this contract and the value should only go up from there. No matter how bad this team forecasts to be over the next couple seasons he should continue to produce great value on this contract. There is good pieces still in Buffalo, Dylan Cozens, Victor Olofsson & Rasmus Dahlin. Around Christmas he will surpass his breakout threshold as well. It is possible the Mittelstadt owner sees him as good value right now, but are not overly bullish on him.

SELL: Will Butcher (D) $3.733M, 1 year

It would be cheating to select Kyle Okposo or Jeff Skinner. Those ships have sailed. Butcher's value is entirely within points-only pools. His peripherals are non-existent producing less then a hit every other game, barely a block a game and not much more then a shot per game. Offense will be hard to come by in Buffalo and with Dahlin patrolling the top power play, Butcher will be hard pressed to produce much off the man advantage.  A poor man's 30-35 points is a likely best case scenario. He has fringe roster value at best in 12-team points-only pool and no value of note in multi-cat pools. If he does start the season well – sell.

Calgary Flames

BUY: Andrew Mangiapane (RW), $2.425M, 1 year

Another player on the cusp of their breakout threshold. He saw a jump in ice time by almost three minutes per game last year which resulted in a career best 47-point pace. For the last three years Mangiapagne has steadily improved.

He should safely put up 20 points per million in salary (that is a 49-point projection). Add in a hit per game and a bump closer to two shots per game and you have a really appealing value contract for 2021-22. Depending on how big this breakout is will determine how big his pay raise becomes. If you can pad the bottom half of your line up with players like Mangiapagne you will do very well in your pool.

SELL: Jacob Markstrom (G) $6M, 5 years

His first year in Calgary started really well with a save percentage of .925. He ended the year with a respectable .913 over his final thirteen games. It was the 18 games in the middle that were dreadful, with an .882 save percentage. The Flames also lost their best defenceman and captain, Mark Giordano and added two depth pieces in Erik Gudbransson and Nikita Zadorov. You'll forgive me for sitting in the camp that believes Calgary's defence is not as good as it was last year. At 31, I have really mixed feelings that he will perform at a high level consistently moving forward. 

Perhaps it is a year to early to ditch Markstrom, sometimes it can be better to get out a little too early than too late. There are better value goalies out there that will give you similar or better stats for a lower cost, Freddy Andersen, being a prime example.

Carolina Hurricanes

BUY: Freddy Andersen (G) $4.5M, 2 years

This is the epitome of buy low. He's coming off a poor statistical season plagued by injury. And he landed with one of the top up and coming teams in the NHL.  Andersen played the majority of games last season battling through injury. There was a stretch where he played but couldn't skate backward. I was never a goalie, but that can't be a good thing (The stories behind the stats that create opportunities).

I fully expect a healthy Andersen to return to his 2019-20 level of play. Put Carolina's defence in front of him and it should result in improved numbers across the board.

SELL: Jordan Staal (C), $6M, 2 years

At 33, he's coming off his best offensive season since 2011-12, his last in Pittsburgh. It is unusual for players to have offensive renaissances in their mid-thirties. He received a bump in power play time of 1:31 per game over 2019-20. There's no guarantee Staal will see similar power play exposure in 2021-22. This is the highest his value has been since Pittsburgh traded him in 2012.

In most years he is a 45-50 point center that anchors your face-off stats and mashes two hits per game. Those stats aren't going anywhere It's unlikely he comes close to repeating last year. I'll hedge bets he closer to his 45-point self. He's a sell because at 33, he won't be worth more in a trade then he is right now.

That's all for this week. Check in next week for part 2.

(All stats from frozentools.com & all salary cap information pulled from capfriendly.com)

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