Never a dull moment in Buffalo, apparently. The Jack Eichel saga has been ongoing for months now, and there has been no hint of a resolution. From a fantasy perspective, fantasy owners are on edge about what to do here. His ADP is inside the top-100 but that feels like people guessing more than anything. Personally, I'm not drafting Eichel this year and I can't imagine there'd be a lot of news that'd sway me.

To that end, some Jack Eichel news:

Sabres GM Kevyn Adams: Jack Eichel failed his physical.

Jack Eichel's health is most important to the organization. We were hoping to avoid surgery, but it is needed. Eichel will not accept Sabres' desire for fusion surgery.

He is on injured reserve.

— John Vogl (@BuffaloVogl) September 23, 2021

It really does appear that 2021-22 is going to be a lost season for Eichel. Earlier hopes had been for Christmas but if he needs neck surgery, and hasn't had it yet, and we're a week away from October? I don't see how Christmas is realistic, but I guess we'll wait until it actually happens.

The fun didn't end there, though:

Kevyn Adams says Jack Eichel is no longer the captain of the Buffalo Sabres.

"I feel the captain is the heartbeat of your team," Adams said. "I felt that we needed to address that."

— John Vogl (@BuffaloVogl) September 23, 2021

There are only a handful of instances where a player has been stripped of the captaincy in recent memory. The one I remember best is Patrik Elias in New Jersey. Other teams have done it (San Jose), it's just not frequent. It's understandable, as Eichel is absolutely finished with the Sabres organization. But I find it kind of weird, seeing as they didn't name a replacement. It just feels like everything the Sabres have done in the last four months has greatly devalued Eichel's trade equity. And, again, it appears his season is over anyway. It's just a really bad situation all around.

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Accordingo to ESPN, the NHL is planning a big crackdown on cross-checking. As anyone who reads my work knows, this is something I have been championing for years. It seems the majority of defensive plays are cross-checks for positioning and when those are allowed, escalation is inevitable. I am glad the NHL is finally doing this, if it’s years later than they should have.

This probably means a lot more power plays than we’re expecting early on as teams and players adapt. We’ll also see if the refs, who are notorious for thinning out the rulebook as the year wears on, decide to keep enforcing it after Christmas. Or, if like obstruction, there’s a brief spike and then a decline that persists for years.

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If you have interest in our Dobber Tiered Leagues, check out this link. A good chance to go up against fellow Dobber readers.

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As mentioned in my Ramblings yesterday, I have started working on my projections. I have them done, to an extent, I just need to make manual adjustments team by team. It can be a little tedious, but it'll get done.

Anyway, I wanted to talk about a few early projections.

Adam Fox

I get why he's going as a top-3 or top-5 defenceman in fantasy leagues. He's coming off the Norris win, he has paced for 58 points/82 games with the Rangers, he's only 23, and the team is an offensive dynamo. The one thing people are leaving out of their analysis is this: he doesn't hit. He has 58 hits in 125 career games, or like 40 a season. That is a big, big problem. Last year, Fox played to a 70-point, 34-PPP, plus-28 pace per 82 games, and was just inside the top-10 defencemen in fantasy. Think about that if you draft Fox as the fourth defenceman off the board. Think about him putting up 10 goals, 70 points, 30 PPPs, a plus-30 rating, and losing value on that draft pick. That is the impact of putting up so little in an entire category when we're talking about the absolute elite draft picks.

Remember that he does put up a lot of blocks so that can help, but when we're talking about the upper-crust of blue liners, a balanced attack is almost always what's needed. Fox can't really bring that so just beware about over-drafting him. I absolutely love him and his situation, there are just certain things he doesn't do. It's just the way it is.

Roope Hintz

Hintz is a fascinating player. Some prospect people I follow never really expected him to amount to much:

Roope Hintz is currently producing at over a ppg pace. He never really had any indication that he could be a star. If he does become a star he would be a massive outlier. Funny enough, one of the biggest star outliers of the past 30 yrs is in fact his linemate, Joe Pavelski. pic.twitter.com/BblrEOhR0I

— Byron Bader (@ByronMBader) April 26, 2021

This guy was a late second-round pick and didn't blow the doors off as a 20-year-old in the AHL (35 points in 70 games). But the next season saw him over a point-per-game in the AHL and finally reach the NHL. Now, over the last two seasons, he leads the Stars forwards in points/60 at 5-on-5 by a wide margin, and the same applies at all strengths. Over that span, league-wide, Hintz's points/60 rate is top-50, and ahead of names like Gaudreau, Kuznetsov, and Landeskog. We should remember that he did this largely injured all of 2021.

That brings me to his projection of a very nice 69 points. That would represent a drop from last year, when he was over a point per game. That is the problem with projections. I am including his entire NHL career to date, but he's obviously gotten better as he's progressed. In fact, according to Corey Sznajder's data from 2021, his shot and primary shot assist rates were comparable to guys like Kevin Fiala, Mitch Marner, and Andrei Svechnikov. If Hintz plays 18-19 minutes a night, getting top PP minutes, and he's shooting and playmaking like those guys? Well, 69 points might be too low.

I genuinely think Hintz has point-per-game upside this season, and he can do so while giving solid peripherals. It's just that he's going in the Barzal/O'Reilly/Seguin tier and there are good comps in there. This isn't an easy decision, but I don't think Hintz is being wildly over-valued either.

Oliver Bjorkstrand

I get that we're not super high on Columbus as an offensive environment, but these are Bjorks' 82-game paces from the last two seasons: 31 goals, 32 assists, 238 shots, 66 hits. There are plus/minus and power play concerns, but if Bjork puts up 30 goals, 60 points, 240 shots, and 70 hits, are we really going to care if he goes minus-5 with 11 PPPs?

This isn't a perfect comparison, but for Underdog Fantasy (where I play best balls, and it's a points league), Bjorkstrand grades out to a top-70 skater for me. He is in the Tyler Toffoli/Brendan Gallagher tier for me. His Yahoo ADP has him going about 70 skaters later than where I have him ranked. Now, Underdog doesn't use plus/minus, but as long as he doesn't go like minus-40, there's no way he loses six rounds of value through that category.

Right now, I have the Dane putting up 30 goals, 34 assists, 220 shots, 60 hits, and 10 PPPs. All that (again, excluding plus/minus) has him as a top-70 skater. What if they actually turn out a good PP, flowing through Voracek and Werenski? It isn't impossible. It doesn't even have to be good. Just an average PP could get Bjork to 70 points.

Honestly, I have no problem taking Bjork anytime after the Boeser/Ehlers/Reinhart tier. The fact is fantasy owners can probably wait several rounds after that to take him. Along with Timo Meier, Bjork is one of my favourite draft values this season.

Batherson/Norris

Yours truly wrote a deep dive on both Drake Batherson and Josh Norris a couple weeks ago. I recommend reading that before continuing.

Anyway, I have both Batherson and Norris around top-100 skaters, and they're being drafted nowhere near the top-100 skaters. I truly believe these two, along with Brady Tkachuk, have league-winning upside and all the data points keep shoving me in that direction. We are excited to see this trio do damage this season.

They are going to be a trio, btw:

Group A lines.
Paul Norris Batherson
Reinhardt LBrown Shaw
Ostapchuk Kastelic Latimer

Del Zotto Zaitsev
Holden Thomson
Romeo William's

— TSN 1200 (@TSN1200) September 23, 2021

That is Nick Paul being a place-holder while they work out the Tkachuk contract. Ladies and gentlemen, start your engines.

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Speaking of line combinations:

Jeff Carter and Jake Guentzel are together on a line. Danton Heinen is the right wing. #Pens

— Wes Crosby (@OtherNHLCrosby) September 23, 2021

Remember that without Crosby and Malkin to start the season, Jeff Carter could very well be Pittsburgh's top-line centre for a couple weeks. Could be some real good value there early in the year.

On the Malkin front, GM Ron Hextall said that the team will be without Malkin for two months. So, anyone drafting him has to assume no more than 55 games at the absolute most. We are probably looking closer to 50. This team only cares about a Cup, not having Malkin back a week sooner in December.

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The Oilers had a top line of Hyman-McDavid-Pulju in their first skate. As with all line combos discussed here, they are subject to change. But this is of particular interest because this could mean Hyman gets all his even-strength and power-play time skating with McDavid. That is… significant.

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Some tough news for Nicklas Backstrom, as he's missing the start of training camp and is considered week-to-week for now. He is rehabbing an ongoing hip issue that has been plaguing him for years.

I am of two minds here. One is that I don't like drafting injured players going into the season. It's one thing to take a flyer on a guy in the late rounds, it's another to forego drafting guys like Sam Reinhart or Anze Kopitar to draft Backstrom instead. When he's at his best, Backstrom can be a point-per-game centre. Is he going to be at his best? I am not sure I want to be the one spending draft capital to find out. Give me Kopitar two rounds later and let's go.

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Some important Habs news:

Mike Hoffman (bas du corps, Paul Byron (hanche), Carey Price (genou), Joël Teasdale (genou) et Josh Brooke (genou) vont rater tout ke camp d'entraînement des @CanadiensMTL alors que Joel Edmundson sera absent. Au jour le jour. @TVASports

— Renaud Lavoie (@renlavoietva) September 23, 2021

Mike Hoffman failed his physical. For Hoffman, not a great start for a player the Habs are investing $4.5M a season in to turn around their power play. Carey Price is expected to be ready for the start of the season.

We'll have to see how this plays out with Hoffman but I have to think this doesn't overly help anyone. Hoffman is a great power-play threat and the team is better with him than without. Some more PP time for someone like Joel Armia isn't going to help them or anyone else besides Joel Armia.

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Important lines to note:

We also have a line of Kreider-Zib-Laf to start things off 🤔 #NYR

— Vince Z. Mercogliano (@vzmercogliano) September 23, 2021

If we're reading the tea leaves, this probably means a second line of Panarin-Strome-Kakko. I wrote about Kakko not long ago and recommend reading that again.

This is the season everyone is going to be drafting Laffy because he's on the top line and is the recent first overall pick. I think that makes the drafting Kakko the play. He probably won't get meaningful PP time but he'll bring enough EV production to make up for it as a late-round pick.

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One of the big questions from offseason movement was Sam Reinhart's new role in Florida. We have an early answer:

#FlaPanthers day 1 , group 1 has
Verhaeghe Barkov Reinhart
Marchment Thornton Duclair
Forsling Montour
Nutivaara Gudas

— Steve Goldstein (@goldieonice) September 23, 2021

Now, it is the first day of camp. But that he's skating with Barkov is an extremely good sign. First line and possibly top PP minutes? Oh boy.

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Staying with lines, St. Louis is obviously a place of great interest with the Tarasenko drama, the addition of Saad, the departure of Schwartz, and so on. This is how some of their forwards lined up:

#stlblues Group 2 forward lines:

Saad-Thomas-Tarasenko
Neighbours-Schenn-Buchnevich
Clifford-Joshua-MacEachern
Toropchenko-Sundqvist/Peca-Laferriere
Stevens-Anas-Washkurak

— Jeremy Rutherford (@jprutherford) September 23, 2021

The first group also had a trio of Kostin-O’Reilly-Kyrou, so I really don’t know what to make of all this. A test-run for Kostin?

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It also looked like Nolan Patrick was the 3C for Vegas over in their camp, with Evgenii Dadonov as his winger. Will Patrick show out enough to hold on to that role? We’re going to find out, but it’s about as much as we could ask for fantasy-wise from him for now; just an opportunity.