Frozen Tool Forensics: Streaky Players

Chris Kane

2021-09-24

In prepping for my own drafts (reading Dobber's Columns, listening to Keeping Karlsson, you know the things you do), I have been noticing a minor theme; interest in streaks. Players getting hot and going on point runs is something we all have experienced as managers. Sometimes it happens to your players, but it usually seems to happen against us. I would love to own a guy who can put up ten points in five games, I mean who wouldn't. The question though is are there actually players who tend to be streakier than others? Do some players tend to clump points more than others?

This week on Frozen Tool Forensics 2020's Streakiest players.

This week we are going to take a look at streaky players by using a consistency measure. Basically we are going to take a look at how frequently a player gets a point. There is an excellent Dobber Report for us titled Most Consistent. This report breaks down a player's total points, their number of games with a point, and then uses that to generate a Consistently Percentage. Basically the number of games where a player got a point divided by the number of games. It goes beyond points as well to look at goals and assists specifically. For the purposes of this article though we are going to look at points only.

As a little tidbit to get us started take a look at the top five most consistent players.

NamePosAgeTeamGPPTSPTS/GPGP w/ PtConsistency %
CONNOR MCDAVIDC24EDM561051.884580.36
NATHAN MACKINNONC26COL48651.353879.17
AUSTON MATTHEWSC24TOR52661.274076.92
LEON DRAISAITLC25EDM56841.54376.79
ALEKSANDER BARKOVC26FLA50581.163774

Our elite players then are giving us a point about 74 percent of the time. It is definitely an interesting data point, but this list is entirely predictable. Connor McDavid put up 105 points in 56 games. It stands to reason he likely had the highest consistency rating (had points in the highest percentage of his games). Conversely