One player that seems to have performed incredibly well so far in the preseason is Cole Sillinger. The 2021 12^th overall pick has earned glowing reports from coaches and media alike, and he's been lining up with Jakub Voracek quite often. This continued in practice yesterday:

Sillinger was over a PPG player as a 16-year-old in the WHL and blew the doors off the USHL last year. He is listed at 6'0" and nearly 200 lbs, so it's not as if he's some tiny player that needs some time to grow. If he's mentally ready now, maybe he's good to go. I doubt he plays the full season but we never know.

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Dobber did an AMA (Ask Me Anything) over on Reddit yesterday. Lots of interesting fantasy hockey tidbits for the season. Go check it out if you haven’t already.

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Having done projections for years now, I'm not sure why I dread it so much. It really isn't that hard to do once you get a grasp of the basic math (things like weighted averages and regressions) and Excel concepts you need. I have it streamlined to the point where I can get most of it done in a day's work and then it's just about continual adjustments. All the same, I have finally finished them. Not completely – I still have to adjust age and incorporate some individual player data. But for the most part, what I have won't change too much so I thought I'd share some important notes.

The first note is that I use something called Standings Gained Points, or SGP. Basically, it gives you an idea how much a player can help your team by comparing their expected projections to the performance of a replacement-level player of the same position in prior seasons. That gives us rough values of players across positions, so it'll tell you about how much Connor McDavid will help your team more than Roman Josi, or how much Roman Josi can help your team more than Tanner Pearson.

Please note that this isn't a perfect science. The baselines I'm using are from a 12-team dynasty league I have where we start nine forwards, four defencemen, and a utility player. If you're in a 16-team league with 10 forwards, five d-men, and two utilities, the replacement value will be much lower. If you're in a league that counts different categories, that will also change the equation a lot. For now, I'm using just goals, assists, PPPs, shots, and hits. That is the standard Yahoo! setup without plus/minus. I have values for leagues including blocks as well, but for now I'll just stick with Yahoo! scoring.

With all that out of the way, some notes about what stood out to me:

• Even in leagues counting hits, Connor McDavid should go first overall. Should everything fall into place for Brady Tkachuk, I think he can be the most valuable fantasy player, but the fact he's still not signed is a concern.
• He will lose some of his PP role, but Neal Pionk is still being undervalued in hits leagues. His production fell off as the year wore on but still managed eight points in his final 17 games. He is being drafted as roughly a top-20 defenceman, and because of his peripherals and meaningful PP production, I think that's about his floor. In short, I don't think we lose value if we draft Pionk as the 20^th defenceman, but there is a good amount of upside if he holds the PP role all year.
• One of the lottery tickets I'm taking on the blue line this year is Shayne Gostisbehere. In 12-team leagues, he can be had in the last round as a flier and that's fine. If he has to be dropped in two weeks, also fine. But Arizona has run some 3F/2D power plays before, and I believe he was much better in Philly last year than he gets credit for. There could be a sneaky 40-point season here, he just doesn't bring much in peripherals.
• I know people are drafting Aaron Ekblad highly, just keep in mind he has 48 hits in his last 102 regular season games. He brings nothing in that category. I wouldn't draft him as a top-5 defenceman in hits leagues.
• One of the biggest gaps between Yahoo ADP (137) and my ranking (81^st) is Kevin Fiala. I don't necessarily think either is outright wrong, either. Fiala played under 17 minutes a game for the season last year. Kaprizov was the only Minnesota winger to earn over 18 minutes a night as they spread out their ice time. That will likely be the case again this year, and it what keeps Fiala from being a top-25 threat. He just needs too much to go right to do it with that ice time. All the same, if he can put up 30 goals, 60 points, three shots per game, and 15 PPPs, he won't crater his value, either. I wouldn't draft him in the first six or seven rounds due to lack of monster upside but would have no problem securing his value after that point.
• One guy being rarely drafted is Eeli Tolvanen. I should say, more specifically, he's being drafted way down the list with the likes of Dadonov, Saad, and Olofsson. I will say, for this season, he has considerably more upside than all of them. Olofsson is an empty shooter who needs a lot of help he won't get, and Saad doesn't hit or provide PP production. Dadonov could get there but he needs some injury help and a lot of luck. Tolvanen, on the other hand, paced for over 20 goals and 40 points last year, putting up a whopping 78 hits in 40 games. If he can put up 20 goals, 50 points, 150 hits and 150 shots with some PP production, he'll wildly out-produce anyone in that list. And there is upside beyond that with Viktor Arividsson gone. Tolvanen is one of my favourite winger fliers this season.
• I have often written about various Ottawa players this offseason and Drake Batherson is one that stands out particularly. I have him as a top-30 winger but we need to remember it's without plus/minus. Ottawa should be better, no doubt, but if Matt Murray is not, we could see a real ugly plus/minus here. Guys who play a lot of minutes on bad teams are the ones that we usually see with bad plus/minus ratings – just ask Dylan Larkin or Erik Karlsson. Just how much Ottawa improves will determine whether Batherson ends up a top-20 winger or a top-40 winger. Regardless, I think the risk is worth it if he can be had in the 14^th round or whatever.
• Anyone looking for a guy that, at the end of the season, we're all like "ah, should have seen that one coming"? How about Travis Konecny? He averaged 26 goals, 56 points, 41 PIMs, 179 shots, and 81 hits per 82 games for three seasons before taking a step back in 2021. Things went all kinds of wrong for the Flyers but they had a relatively full offseason and he's on the top line with Couturier early in camp. Would anyone really be shocked if he broke out for a 30-goal, 100-hit season as he hits the age of 24? He is also going quite late in drafts but I have him roughly as valuable as a top-100 player.
• One of my favourite values among all centres is Vincent Trocheck. With the depth at wing that Carolina has, he'll get at least one talented winger and he's likely back on the top PP unit as well. He was nearly a point-per-game with two hits and 2.6 shots per contest as well. There aren't many signs of massive regression under the hood, either. Injuries are an issue, but I'll take him as my 3C anytime after the top-100 picks. He can be a top-20 centre if he plays 80 games.
• For now, I have J.T. Miller as a better value than Elias Pettersson. It really is just a peripherals thing. At the same time, the longer Pettersson remains unsigned, the more likely it is to just favour Miller more and more.
• After the Big Four centres, the two on my list are Mika Zibanejad and Aleksander Barkov at nearly identical values. The thing is, they're not the same player. Zibanejad is one of the few 50-goal threats and is good for a hit per game at least. Barkov is more a 30(ish)-goal guy with few hits but loads of assists and a heavy shot volume (at least as heavy as Ziba). What kind of player each owner wants want is up to the individual.
• Because I talked about Batherson, I should mention I have Josh Norris as the 30^th centre off the board. Again, this is without plus/minus, and that needs to be a factor for players on a team like this. If things go right, Norris can be a top-20 centre. Things could also go poorly if Tkachuk doesn't sign soon and Murray flops. It is a risk, but I think a risk worth taking, given where he's going in most drafts.
• Evgeni Malkin is just not on my draft list. Some people might want to take him super late and stash him. I would say just draft Tolvanen instead.
• Here's a fun one: I have Roope Hintz and Brayden Point as relatively the same value – between the 15^th and 20^th centres. People need to realize two things about Point: he hasn't hit 2.5 shots per game in three straight seasons and has 78 hits in his last 201 regular season contests. A player that gives you 180 shots and 30 hits needs a lot of production to pay off a second- or third-round value. In 2019-20, when he was just shy of a point-per-game? The 17^th centre in fantasy, just inside the top-50 players. If Point puts up 90 points, he probably still isn't a top-20 roto player. Hintz being able to put up more shots and over double his hits means a lot, even if 15 points separate them.

Well, those are some thoughts on my projections. Anything stick out? Leave a comment anytime or hit me up on Twitter @SlimCliffy.