Here we go, Buy and Sell part III.

If you missed the first two parts you can link here to part I and part II where I've covered Anaheim to Edmonton so far and players such as Chychrun, Coyle, D. Strome, Werenski, Makar and Hintz.

Let's get to it…

Florida Panthers

BUY: MacKenzie Weegar (D) $3.25M, 2 years

This was hard. There are so many buy contracts on this team. Alexander Barkov, Sam Bennett, Jonathan Huberdeau. I chose Weegar based on position. Navigating the increasing cost of offensive defencemen is not easy. Finding one that can push 50-points and stuff your hits, blocks and shot categories with this kind of cost control for two more years, outside of entry level contracts is hard to find.

Aaron Ekblad appears geared to control the first power play unit. There's hope Weegar will take the reigns of that second unit. Brandon Montour also holds those hopes. Of note, Florida has tinkered with a two-defenceman power play of Ekblad and Weegar on the first unit in pre-season.

Regardless of power play exposure Weegar is a 40-45-point threat, with consistent power play, he bumps to 50-55, or more if he finds extended time on that first unit with Barkov and Huberdeau. I've been pumping the tires on Weegar for almost three years. I'm not stopping now.

SELL: Sergei Bobrovsky (G) $10M, 5 years

Hard to believe this is Bobrovsky's third year in Florida. I'll say this first, I think Bobrovsky is going to have a really good year, not quite Vezina worthy, but really good. We've counted Bobrovsky out at least twice previously in his career – before Florida – only to watch him storm back and win a Vezina.

But he makes $10M, as a goalie. I'm always searching for value in net. It's a position I don't like to spend a lot of money on. I like to spend less then $10M on my goalies in total. Add in there are no other outlandish on Florida and Bobrovsky is chosen by default. If you are like me and prefer a cheap crease, early season might be your best opportunity to trade him. Florida is going to be good, real good. If he gets hot, sell, sell, sell.

Los Angeles Kings

BUY: Viktor Arvidsson (RW, LW), $4.25M, 3 years

A recent rash of injuries, starting with a wicked cross check from Robert Bortuzzo November 24^th, 2019 has derailed Arvidsson's momentum of two 60-plus point seasons, followed by 34 goals in 58 games and a 68-point pace, he has declined the last two COVID shortened seasons.

It is the two bad seasons in a row he finds his way into my buy list. The price to acquire is low, coupled with the potential of regaining his 60-point form. If he can figure out the power-play (maybe it was strictly a Nashville issue) he could wiggle closer to 70. He's never hit double digit in power play points. I don't think the Kings have the supporting cast to get him there this year but I do see him trending upward and pushing that 60-point plateau.  With cost certainty for three years, a 60-point forward with upside should be attractive.

SELL: Jonathan Quick (G) $5.8M, 2 years

If you can. There is very little allure left with Quick at this salary. Perhaps the Cal Petersen owner wants the security of the Kings handcuffs? Petersen is now the number one goalie in LA, Quick will still get his share of starts, 30-35, to keep Petersen's workload under control. So he still has value, at this price tag though, he needs to be on the other side of the games played split.

Drew Doughty was a consideration here, but with the increasing salaries of defencemen his contract isn't the outlier it was a year ago. That, and him showing signs of bouncing back and a fading Quick became the more obvious choice.

Minnesota Wild

BUY: Kirill Kaprizov (LW) $9M, 5 years

I am a believer that this will be a value deal before he finishes year three. Kaprizov is a beast. When Edmonton signed Leon Draisaitl to his $8.5M deal there was a fan base uprising. Now, it is one of the best value contracts in hockey.

I'm not suggesting Kaprizov will produce at Draisaitl's level, or Nikita Kucherov's, but

I do see him flirting with the 100-point mark multiple times in his career. Coupled with his volume shooting and goal scoring ability, this is a $9M player I want to own.

SELL: Jared Spurgeon (D) $7.5M, 6 years

Real life value contract here. Sadly, outside of SIM leagues there is no accounting for real life value in fantasy. I avoided owning him at $5.1M per year. The bump to $7.5M lined both sides of my roster with red flags to stay away. In a productive year he squeezes out 40 points. That's tough to swallow. In multi-cat pools he offers no added incentive through peripherals (which are almost non-existent).

Spurgeon still holds the inside track to the first power play to start the year. There's a chance he can push 50-points if he figures out how to produce on it (he was lackluster in the box score last year). It doesn't really matter who runs the power play, Alex Goligoski, Matt Dumba, they all seem to be place holders for Calen Addison in a couple years. 

Montreal Canadiens

BUY: Christian Dvorak (C) $4.5M, 4 years

When the offer sheet for Jesperi Kotkaniemi came in, Dvorak was the replacement player I immediately identified for Montreal to acquire (I'm glad they read my forum post and listened). There is a lot more upside here then he has shown in Arizona. Injuries and offensively challenged teams in have really limited Dvorak's ability to display his upside. Montreal has a knack of acquiring and unveiling untapped upside in players – no better example then Jeff Petry. He has found immediate chemistry with Jonathan Drouin as well (considered as a buy option as well). I expect him to cruise past the 50-point plateau for the first time in his career and build on that moving forward.

SELL: Carey Price (G) $10.5M, 5 years

He is thirty-four and will miss the start of the year with a knee injury. Neither one breeds confidence. We hope he returns with a vengeance and can create trade value. The Atlantic Division is going to be tough and Montreal is going to be in tough. I selected Price almost by default. As I mentioned with Bobrovsky, I don't like spending big money on my goalies.

You can always find good value for a fraction of the cost, Freddy Andersen is a great example.  It would take a Vezina caliber season to get fair value out of Price at this cost. Hard pass for me.

Nashville Predators

BUY: Eeli Tolvanen (LW) 1.45M, 3 years

This is a no-brainer. There is so much value here it is almost criminal.

He could easily deliver a 50-points this year. He might want to consider finding a new agent for his next deal, I think this contract is that lopsided. By year three he realistically could be delivering 60-plus points.

He is a shooter, and adds some hits, just added value to his already value laden contract. This is a player you want to own. Money in the bank right here.

SELL: Ryan Johansen (C) $8M, 4 years

I think there is a better chance Matt Duchene bounces back and provides more value than Johansen. Johansen has been declining for a few years now. His shot totals have declined to less than 1.5 per game.

It is unfathomable to think he once had a 33-goal, 237-shot season – these are now two-season totals combined. He is no longer that player. Three straight years his point per game average has declined, from .8 to .53 to .46. There will be little surprise here if he improves that this year slightly. The point totals are so low he should bounce back slightly by default. Projecting even a 50-point season feels like going out on a brittle limb.

At this price I continue to run in the opposite direction.

New Jersey Devils

BUY: Pavel Zacha (C/LW) $2.25M, 1 year

This suggestion is a little bit of a calculated gamble. He teased with breakout potential last year with a 50-point pace for the first time in his career. I expect him to continue his upward trend in 2021-22. All that said, I believe his next contract will provide an opportunity to own him on a value deal for multiple years.

He’s trending toward becoming a 60-point lock. There may be more upside than that to be had. If New Jersey can lock him in under six million this would turn into a really comfortable contract for years to come.

SELL: Nico Hischier (C) $7.25M, 6 years

I know there are Hischier fans out there and I may get roasted for this choice (thanks for reading this far if you do!). PK Subban, the obvious choice has no value and has been a sell for years. That ship should have sailed long ago.

Hischier has yet to give the Devils a season to validate this contract. Yes he's 22. Yes it is too early to give up on him.

This buy and sell series isn't about giving up on players though. It's about identifying value and making decisions accordingly. That's why Hischier is my choice.

I do not believe Hischier will outperform the cap hit of this contract. If he does, only slightly.

I do believe he still holds significant value as a number one overall pick – that is fading. I would prefer to cash in on that name value and obtain a larger return than I would get for another player of similar value, not named Hischier. Imagine trading Hischier for Nick Ehlers or William Nylander, Brock Boeser – all with similar or higher upsides and slightly better contracts and wingers.

It's food for thought and one man's opinion but there it is.

That's all for this week. Come back for my buy and sell options for another seven teams next week.

(all stats pulled from frozentools.com & salary information from capfriendly.com)

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