Ramblings: Barkov Extension, Auction Strategies, When to Draft Injured Players (Oct 9)

Ian Gooding

2021-10-09

Aleksander Barkov hit the jackpot on Friday, signing a contract extension for eight years at $10 million per season. Barkov was entering the final year of his current contract at $5.9 million. This may not be an ideal contract for cap leagues, particularly if Barkov shows regression in the back half of it. But this contract was necessary given the two-way effectiveness that Barkov has shown as a player and how he's the captain of a team that has serious Stanley Cup aspirations.

I currently don't play in any leagues that count faceoffs (although I did a long time ago), so I just found out that Barkov is also an absolute top-tier option in leagues with that category. He finished eighth in faceoffs won last season (563 FOW). Over the last four seasons, he's fifth in total faceoffs won (3165 FOW).

Who “them” is referring to is the Brad Marchand/David Pastrnak tier. Yes, pay attention to your scoring categories. They really matter.

The injury list has some more names to add to it. Alex Ovechkin left Friday's preseason game against the Flyers with a leg injury.

According to coach Peter Laviolette, Ovechkin will be re-evaluated tomorrow. The prognosis should determine whether he is ready for Wednesday's season opener against the Rangers. The Caps are already without Nicklas Backstrom, who has not played at all during the preseason because of a hip issue.

Also, Nikolaj Ehlers left his preseason game on Friday after colliding with Andrew Mangiapane. The hope is that the move to take him out of the game was precautionary, since the Jets were playing their final preseason game.

Many league drafts are taking place this weekend – a long weekend in Canada because of Thanksgiving. If you haven't already, go and get your Fantasy Guide. Yes, go get it now! You have my permission to come back and read the Ramblings later! After you purchase it, download the guide and the spreadsheet right away. Get familiar with the spreadsheet and how you can sort and filter the results. Then read through as much of the guide as you can, like you're cramming for a test the night before.

I just don't want you to be that guy or gal. That's all.

I received a couple of interesting questions on Twitter this week. Ones in which I think I need more than 280 characters to answer.

In case you're not sure what a "studs vs. duds" strategy is:

To give you an idea of what my spending habits in auction leagues are like, none of my players are within the top 25 in my league in terms of cap hit (12-team league). I have David Pastrnak, Frederik Andersen, Kris Letang, Mark Stone, and Jonathan Huberdeau within the top 50, as well as Thomas Chabot, Mika Zibanejad, Ryan Ellis, Aleksander Barkov, and Filip Hronek within the top 100 salaries per season. So I'd say I fall more into the latter category of a balanced approach. It's a slow draft (bids on a forum), so I can take my time and zero in on value. In a live auction draft, I may not have that luxury and simply bid high on a player that I really want.

I think you're okay with taking a few home run cuts in your draft, but generally you should focus on receiving decent value on most of your picks. Having your share of top-tier performers is important, but finding an inexpensive pick or two that far surpasses expectation in terms of cost will help you get the most out of your roster. Or to put it another way, winning the bidding war doesn't necessarily lead to winning your league, especially when those dollars could have been better spent elsewhere.

That being said, don't assume that you'll lose your season if you spend big bucks on a player that didn't perform up to expectations. My bid on Mookie Betts was the highest of any bid in my fantasy baseball league, and I ended up winning anyway even though he didn't have his best season. If you're into fantasy baseball, you can check out my roster here. Apologies if you're not into baseball, but that's where some of my auction experience is from. Plus I think auctions are more of a thing in fantasy baseball and fantasy football than in fantasy hockey.

I wrote about this topic years ago in my personal blog, if you want to check it out. It has some blasts from the past as well as a few that are still impact players today.

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It would be ideal if we could figure out a mathematical formula for exactly this spot. I kind of hinted at this last weekend, when I discussed drafting Evgeni Malkin with my 16th and final pick in a mock draft. So why draft Malkin in the eighth round when you can get him in the 16th round? At first glance, I might aim lower for some of the players listed.   

One factor is how long the player will be out. Sidney Crosby is expected to miss less time than Malkin. If the two players were equal, I'd of course draft Crosby higher than Malkin, based on the number of games both are expected to play.

Another factor is the level of production from both players. Since Crosby's output is expected to be slightly higher than Malkin's in a normal injury-free season, Crosby further distances himself from Malkin in this year's rankings.

One more factor is opportunity cost. By drafting one of these injured players, what are you leaving on the table? For example, Malkin has a similar point projection to Anthony Beauvillier in the Fantasy Guide. Beauvillier was undrafted in the mock draft I mentioned earlier, so if this were a real league, I'd try to grab Beauvillier as soon as I could IR slot Malkin. If you draft Beauvillier, you'd receive about the same number of points as Malkin, except stretched out over a longer period. Considering that Beauvillier is being drafted in about the 14th round in Yahoo leagues, that's about where I'd target Malkin. (Confession: I used this simple formula to trade Malkin for Beauvillier in one of my leagues.)

With the players you've listed, I'd target the following rounds:

Crosby: 3rd round. I'll agree with you on that one because he's only expected to miss a few games.

Malkin: 14th round (see above). Or at least wherever your 50-60-point players typically go, which could be a little earlier than that. I generally don't reach for injured players, though. And in the past, I haven't made a habit of drafting injured players unless I can pick them in a spot where I can receive unbelievable value.

Carey Price: His Yahoo ADP puts him in the 5th round, although before his leave was announced, I would have waited at least a couple more rounds. Marc Bergevin said that Price would miss a minimum of a month, so I would decrease his win and shutout total by about 20 percent. Assuming his ratios remain equal, he might move toward the value of one of the better timeshare goalies. The draft spot of these types of goalies will vary, so I could be talked into drafting him in the 10th round if goalies are falling off the board quickly. He doesn't drop as much as Malkin because goalie value isn't as dictated by counting stats (volume) as much as it is for players, and he might not miss as much time. But if you're a proponent of Zero G, you're probably going to wait even longer than that.

Jack Eichel: I'd wait until the final round in a shallow league, or the final few rounds in a deep league. At least at a point where replacement-level players don't differ much from late-round draft picks. That's because we simply don't know when he'll return, if at all this season. If he is traded next week and undergoes the surgery he wants, then he's looking at a four-month recovery. That means he'd be out for two-thirds of the season at a minimum. Although information has surfaced that trade talks have picked up, this is still a complex deal to assemble with likely a limited number of teams and many conditions to the trade.

Quinton Byfield: Mid- or late-season waiver-wire pickup. He was no guarantee to make the Kings this season, and it's quite possible that he spends another season in the AHL when he does return.

While I'm at it, I'll throw a couple more into the mix.

Tuukka Rask: Rask is currently rehabilitating his surgically repaired hip from a torn labrum, potentially targeting a midseason return. If goalies are scarce and you need starts, you'll probably have to ignore him at this point. He's a final round/final few rounds pick similar to Eichel, assuming you have the roster space to stash him on IR. If he does not want to play anywhere but Boston, and the Bruins are happy with their goalie situation and would rather explore improvements elsewhere, then it's even possible that he doesn't play at all this season.

Brady Tkachuk: He obviously isn't injured, but he and the Senators still haven't agreed on a contract. Because it's unknown how long this could drag out, Tkachuk should probably fall at least a little bit in draft rankings. A William Nylander-like two-month holdout seems unlikely, given that the Senators have the cap space and simply can't agree with Tkachuk on the term. Tkachuk has an ADP of 26 on Yahoo and 31 on Fantrax, so it might simply be a matter of waiting another round before drafting him. Or if you are in a league that counts Hits and SOG and were planning to reach for him, draft him in that spot and watch him pile up those stats when he returns.

For more fantasy hockey discussion, or to reach out to me, you can follow me on Twitter @Ian_Gooding

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