Ramblings: McAvoy Signing, Larkin Suspended, Carter Hart and That Which Cannot Be Explained (Oct 16)
Ian Gooding
2021-10-16
If there's a time of year where fantasy team managers are the most hyper-focused, this is the one. I see a lot of questions like the following:
"What do you think of my team?" My stock answer: It looks great, but you'll probably want to make waiver-wire moves throughout the season. No fantasy team is a finished product (aside from zero transaction leagues).
"I drafted player A, should I pick up player B from waivers instead?" To that, post the question on the Forum to receive various opinions, use the Player Compare on Frozen Tools, check the rankings, and in the end have faith in your good judgement. Speaking of which, the Top 100 Roto Rankings for October have been released. Feel free to review the rankings and leave feedback.
"Should I make this trade?" See the above suggestions for pickups. Also focus on how it addresses a weakness on your roster and not solely on how you're getting the better of your opponent. Also beware of 2-for-1 deals where you are giving up the one best player and may have to drop a player to accommodate. And if you're not completely committed to an offer you receive, click Reject and move on.
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Charlie McAvoy is establishing himself as one of the league's top defensemen, and now he will be paid as such. McAvoy has signed an eight-year contract worth a total of $76 million. This contract will have a hefty AAV of $9.5 million, and is set to kick in next season. As long as McAvoy can maintain a spot on the first-unit power play, this salary should still make him okay to own in salary cap leagues. Whether the Bruins can remain a playoff team or not over the long term, McAvoy is set to remain in Boston for a while.
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Dylan Larkin received a one-game suspension for the following swing on Mathieu Joseph that you will miss if you blink. Just wondering: Shouldn't something have been given to Joseph for what looked like a dangerous hit from behind that provoked all this?
As a result of the suspension, Larkin is set to miss Saturday's game against Vancouver.
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Buffalo's opening-night win over Montreal came at a cost. Both Casey Mittelstadt and Henri Jokiharju will miss at least two weeks. Mittelstadt's potential breakout as the first-line center will be stalled for a bit. That could mean opportunity for Dylan Cozens, who practiced on the first line with much-maligned Jeff Skinner and Dobber favorite Vinnie Hinostroza. Hmmm… there's your daily fantasy tip of the day from me, since the Sabres face Arizona today (Saturday) and those guys will probably be super cheap. Though I'm not sure if Daily Fantasy writer Steve Dotzel will recommend it.
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During the Canucks' morning skate, Vasily Podkolzin was receiving reps with Elias Pettersson and J.T. Miller. Although the Canucks rookie didn't see as much time on the top line as sophomore Nils Hoglander, Podkolzin managed to score his first NHL goal on Friday. Because Travis Green decided to play his top six a lot more than his bottom six in this game, Podkolzin was held to just seven minutes. I like his two-way game and his overall keeper value, but I don't think you need to pick him up in single-season leagues. For more on Podkolzin, see his Dobber Prospects profile.
The Canucks/Flyers game was a wild one. The Canucks held a 4-2 lead with under three minutes to play. Then the Flyers scored a power-play goal, then the tying goal a minute later with Carter Hart pulled. Eventually the Canucks would win in a shootout after an overtime that saw them fire six shots at Hart. The Flyers' goalie struggled mightily in the second period in allowing four goals, which included this crazy pinball shot.
But then Hart settled down to prevent being tagged with the Really Bad Start, shutting the door with 21 saves and no goals allowed in the third period and overtime. The fact that Alain Vigneault left him in to get it right as opposed to pulling him for Martin Jones turned out to be the right decision, if nothing else to rebuild Hart’s confidence. In the end, four goals allowed and a loss is not the result Hart owners would have hoped for. However, this game could be an important turning point for Hart as he tried to put a disastrous 2020-21 season behind him. If Hart rebounds, maybe you can point to that opening-night start.
As I discussed on Twitter tonight, Hart being drafted as a third-round pick in standard-sized leagues last season is Exhibit A as to why drafting goalies with a high pick is risky.
Whoa. So if we can’t explain or understand goaltending, why are we using high picks on goalies?
At times J.T. Miller can look disinterested, as he did for much of last season. However, he brought it in many ways for the Canucks on Friday, scoring a goal with two assists and three hits and two blocked shots, along with the shootout winner.
Whether you like it or not, Alex Chiasson is on the Canucks' first-unit power play as a net-front presence. He even scored a power-play goal on Friday, his first as a Canuck since signing after his PTO. Chiasson was held to just 11 minutes overall, meaning that he will likely have minimal value at even strength. He played the exact same role for the Oilers the past few seasons, where roughly half of his points were on the power play. Once Brock Boeser returns from injury, I would be interested to see if Chiasson stays there. But if you were hoping Conor Garland would be on PP1, that doesn't appear to be happening.
Some minute-munching on the Flyers defense: Ivan Provorov played 29:23, while in his first game as a Flyer, Ryan Ellis played 28:20 and recorded two assists. Keith Yandle also played his first game as a Flyer and also pitched in two helpers. The power-play icetime seemed to be evenly distributed among the three defensemen, so I think we'll need more games to see how this will play out.
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Jack Hughes scored two goals on Friday, including this impressive overtime winner and unusual celly.
Something I like about 3-on-3 overtime is the pure skill that is on display. Hughes demonstrated why he was a first overall pick. I really like his chances for a breakout this season, or at least continued growth.
Dougie Hamilton scored a goal 17 seconds into his Devils debut. That was his only point of the game, but he finished with a plus-3, three shots, three hits, and two blocks.
Is there a player who has benefitted more from a trade than Tyler Johnson? The former Lightning is centering Patrick Kane and Alex DeBrincat in even strength and is also on the first-unit power play. TJ recorded two power-play assists, which were his first two points of the season. After he appeared to be the odd man out in Tampa Bay, Johnson has found new life in Chicago. Absolutely he's a decent pickup at the moment.
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As the color commentator mentioned, Marcus Foligno also finished the game with 17 penalty minutes, which of course included a fight. He also took three hits, so it was a banner day for Foligno in bangers leagues. Until he was injured, Foligno was on one of my teams for a while last season, finishing the season with 26 points in 39 games. An unsustainable 27.5 SH% had something to do with that, but don't let that deter you from adding Foligno if your league counts penalty minutes and/or hits. Foligno has reached 100 hits for each of the last nine seasons.
Filling in for the injured John Gibson, Anthony Stolarz probably deserved a better fate. The Ducks goalie stopped 41 of 43 shots, giving him a quality start in spite of the loss. Gibson has had injury concerns in the past, so Stolarz might be worthy of at least a short-term pickup. But we suggested keeping an eye on Stolarz in the Fantasy Guide:
Gibson has come out of the gate hot in each of his last three years, but has always hit a wall just a month or two into the season. He's now 28 and in his prime, but a SV% of 0.906 in his last 125 games played is very concerning (and -12.5150 goals saved above average, which is quite poor) … Meanwhile, 27-year-old Stolarz is a former second-round pick (45th overall in 2012) who has finally been healthy for two full seasons now. He was dynamite in the AHL and in eight NHL games last year. Gibson is your starter, but Stolarz is your dark horse to keep an eye on for the second half. Might be worth a stash.
Depending on how long Gibson is out, Stolarz might be worth a stash a little earlier that Dobber had projected.
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If you notice a Jacob Peterson being added in your league (as I did recently by the league's Stars fan), it's because he was playing on one of Dallas's scoring lines beside Joe Pavelski and Roope Hintz. He made good on that, scoring a goal along with first-unit power-play time in 16:35 of icetime. Peterson might warrant an add in deeper leagues at this point, but he might be one of those players that you've never heard of (2017 5th round pick) that could make some noise in fantasy leagues. He is currently 0% rostered in Yahoo leagues and 5% rostered in Fantrax leagues.
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For more fantasy hockey discussion, or to reach out to me, you can follow me on Twitter @Ian_Gooding