Daily Fantasy Saturday: The Stacks Are Back

Stephen Dotzel

2021-10-16

It's back! The NHL season has started and we are set for what *looks* to be a "normal" season. Don't get me wrong, I was glad to have hockey back in my life earlier this year when the league had it's 2020-2021 season but from a fantasy perspective, the repetitiveness of it all got to be a bit much. If you recall, teams were playing the same six or seven teams over and over many times on back to backs. While it allowed for some intense rivalries to build, it got a little stale from the fantasy angle. But that is a thing of the past, the regular divisions and normal schedules are back! And how nice is it to have fans back in the arenas?

The emphasis of my daily fantasy article each week will be to not only give you some plays for the day, but to also try and give you some tips on how to be a better daily fantasy player and how to spot these plays on your own. With that in mind, let's review a few of the most important things to keep in mind for NHL daily fantasy. I primarily play on DraftKings so that is where much of what I talk about will be geared towards. But all of the daily fantasy site scoring systems are fairly similar, just make sure you know and understand the differences in how points are scored on whatever site you are playing on.

First off, obviously scoring goals is the best way to rack up a lot of fantasy points. The problem with DAILY fantasy is that while we can make some pretty good estimates on how many goals each individual player will score over the course of an 82-game season, in a one game sample which is what daily fantasy is, almost anything can happen. That variance is both the beauty and the curse of daily fantasy and is why building lineups more focused on my next two points are what I feel is the way to go.

1. Target players who shoot the puck. It sounds simple enough but players who shoot do two things for your lineup. First off, on DraftKings a three-point bonus is awarded to a player who has five shots on goal for a game. At 1.5 points per shot, that works out to 10.5 DraftKings points without that player even recording a goal or an assist. For perspective a goal scored will give a player 10 points, and two assists will give them 10 points as well. On a nightly basis, predicting who exactly is going to either score a goal or get an assist is very difficult, but knowing which players are going to shoot frequently is more predictable. The other bonus is when your roster is full of guys who shoot often, eventually a few of those shots might go in, which gives you plenty of upside built into your lineup so when you have a night where the pucks are finding the back of the net, you can really rack up a big score.

2. Build correlation into your lineups. If you frequently play DFS tournaments for other sports you are likely already familiar with this concept. If not, correlation in NHL terms is rostering players together that when one does well, they are likely to increase the performance of another player at the same time. For hockey, this can be achieved by not just having players from the same team but having players from the same team who will be on the ice at the same time together. Ideally you want players who skate on the same lines at even strength and who are on the same power-play unit together as well. Or at least one or the other. The benefit should be obvious. Since picking who is going to score a goal is difficult, you want to maximize the benefit you receive when you do pick right. So if your player scores a goal, there will more often than not be some assists to go along with it, and rostering a player on the ice with the goal scorer increases your chances of also picking up the assist and the fantasy points that come with it.

I will do my best to go into more detail on these concepts, and how they can help your lineups, throughout the season so be sure to check back here each week. If you want to read more right away, check out some of my previous articles which you can find under the Daily Fantasy section in the Columns tab where I've talked about some of this in the past. As for tonight, we kick things off with a pretty massive 12 game slate. Here are some spots I'm targeting for my lineups. All prices are from DraftKings but plays can be applied to any site.

Primary Stacks

Edmonton – No surprise with this pick but with Nathan MacKinnon and Auston Matthews both not playing on this slate, Connor McDavid ($8,700) is in a league of his own at the center position. McDavid didn't find the back of the net in their opener on Wednesday, but it's only a matter of time for him and at home once again tonight is as good a time as any. Edmonton went 4-1 at home against the Flames last season and in those five games McDavid racked up six goals and tacked on another six assists. Stacking him with Leon Draisaitl ($8,200) is always a good idea but you can drop down to Jesse Puljujarvi ($4,500) or Ryan Nugent-Hopkins ($4,700) to save a little salary. Puljujarvi joins McDavid at even strength and scored on Wednesday, while RNH sees plenty of time with McDavid on the man advantage.

Toronto – Ottawa got the best of the Leafs on Thursday, but even in a loss Toronto outshot the Senators 48-36 and led in high danger scoring chances 25-21. Not to mention they clearly have the superior team on paper, so all signs point to the Leafs bouncing back tonight in this one. When they do it should be John Tavares ($7,900) and Mitch Marner ($7,800) leading the way in the absence of Auston Matthews. Both players are set to skate together at both 5-on-5 and the power play, making them a great duo to stack together in lineups. You can add on their other linemate Nick Ritchie ($3,300) for salary relief, or add in William Nylander ($6,200) or Morgan Rielly ($5,500) for some more power play correlation.

Winnipeg – The Jets opened their season with a disappointing 4-1 loss to the Ducks but while the final score doesn't reflect it, they actually played fairly well. In addition to outshooting the Ducks 34-22, they posted a 66% Corsi For Percentage which shows they really controlled the puck for most of the game. The matchup tonight should be a better one, as the Sharks allowed the fourth-most goals in the league last season. Part of that was poor goaltending, which San Jose has tried to address, but even still the Sharks allowed the sixth-most shots per game as well last year. Mark Scheifele ($6,800) will also return from suspension tonight which should only help the Jets. He should slide right back into the top line and power play with Kyle Connor ($6,000) and Blake Wheeler ($5,700). The trio give you full line and power-play correlation.

Secondary Stacks

Pittsburgh – It's setting up to be a Marc-Andre Fleury homecoming in Pittsburgh, and while I'd imagine he will come out to a lot of cheers, ultimately the Penguins would like nothing more than to come away with a win. Chicago has picked up where they left off last season thus far in terms of shots and scoring chances allowed, despite several off-season moves. Not to mention they'll be coming in on a road back-to-back. The Penguins have surprisingly put up 11 goals in their first two games even without Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin in the lineup. The top line with Jeff Carter ($5,400), Jake Guentzel ($6,800), and Bryan Rust ($5,600) is where I'm looking as the entire line also skates on the power play together. Just be sure to keep an eye on Rust's status as he left Thursday's game a little banged up. If he would miss, whoever slots into his spot on the top line will be a solid value play. Take a peek at the Penguins second line as well of Evan Rodrigues ($3,100), Kasperi Kapanen ($4,100), and Jason Zucker ($2,800) for some savings if needed. Kapanen sees top power play time giving him some added upside and Rodrigues has scored in each of the team's first two games and both players are very affordable.

Vancouver – Stacking against Detroit has been a good strategy the past few seasons and their first game this season did nothing to dispel that, giving up seven goals to the defending champs. The Red Wings will also be without their top center Dylan Larkin in this one. Vancouver is not Tampa Bay, but they do have some weapons. One of which is Brock Boeser ($6,200) who missed the team's first two games but could be in the lineup tonight. He will make for a great tournament play if so, given that most people will assume his injury will keep him out of the lineup again. I'd expect him to slot in with Elias Pettersson ($6,500) and J.T. Miller ($5,400) if he does get the green light. If not, those two are fine stacking options in their own right and you can add Quinn Hughes ($5,100) to the stack for added correlation.

Value Stacks

Here a few affordable stacks you can use to round out your lineups:

Christian Dvorak ($4,500), Josh Anderson ($3,700)

Pierre-Luc Dubois ($4,700), Nikolaj Ehlers ($6,100)

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Ryan Nugent-Hopkins ($4,700), Zach Hyman ($5,600)

Robby Fabbri ($4,900), Tyler Bertuzzi ($5,500)

Cheap 1st Power Play Unit Plugs:

C – Mikael Granlund ($4,500), Evgeny Kuznetsov ($4,700), Joel Eriksson Ek ($4,800)

W – Jaden Schwartz ($3,600), Eeli Tolvanen ($3,200), Connor Brown ($3,800), Alex Chiasson ($3,200)

D – Miro Heiskanen ($3,400) *WAY too cheap*, Nick Leddy ($3,300), Tony DeAngelo ($4,200)

Goalie Picks

Connor Hellebuyck ($7,600)

Jack Campbell ($8,400)

Elvis Merzlikins ($7,500)

Andrei Vasilevskiy ($7,500)

Jaroslav Halak ($7,900)

Be sure to double check your lineups before lock for any last-minute scratches or goalie changes. If you follow me on Twitter @SteveDotzel you can subscribe to my "DFS-NHL" list, which is comprised of several team beat writers tweeting the most recent news in real-time. You can also reach out to me personally and I'll do my best to answer any questions I can. Hope to see you on top of the leaderboards!

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