Ramblings – Fantasy Value of Seider vs. Hronek; Nic Roy’s Big Chance, Dobber’s Top 10 Disappointments and more (Nov 08)

Dobber

2021-11-08

What to say about Tyler Bertuzzi? He has points in just six of his 10 games and yet he has 15 points. Four of them were multi-point games. He's starting to get a reputation for those. The multi-point games are about as common as the single-point games. But that means that there are a lot of pointless games in there too. In his last 163 games he tallied three or four points in 10 of them, and two points in 14 of them making up 63 of his 117 points. That's more than half of his points in 24 of his 163 games. Now entering his prime, he is in that place where the consistency will get ironed out. If he can stay healthy (big if for this guy) then I think he'll surprise us all with his production.

Since being a healthy scratch, twice, Filip Hronek has five points in seven games. Stud rookie Moritz Seider also has five points in that same span. I'm not sure if the scratch will be a good thing long-term for Hronek, but it seems to have gotten him going early-on. Both youngsters are seeing north of 22 minutes in ice time per game, with Seider seeing PP1 time (two PPPts) and Hronek PP2 time (one PPPt), a difference of maybe 45 seconds per game. We all knew that Seider was hopefully the “second coming of Nicklas Lidstrom” as some called him, but I don't think anyone saw it coming immediately like this. Especially with Hronek, an elite defenseman in his own right, already with NHL experience. Hronek led the team in ice time the last two seasons running, but the rookie is seemingly inspiring him to push harder.

One negative going for Hronek is that he is saddled with Nick Leddy as his partner, so he has to cover off the inevitable mistakes. Seider gets Danny DeKeyser.

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So Seider is the real deal. We knew he'd be in the NHL this year, but I figured the numbers would take two to three seasons to reach star-caliber. But nope, the numbers are there right now. An immediate impact similar to Cale Makar and Quinn Hughes. I don't think it hurts Hronek and likely helps a bit. But Hronek's ceiling is capped with Seider's presence. I'm thinking one will be a 50-point guy while the other pushes 65 or even 70.

Speaking of real deals, the Red Wings obviously hit another homerun with Lucas Raymond. In the summer I figured the Wings would be looking to tank one more year, but that Raymond would be too good to keep in the minors for long. In training camp it was clear that Raymond was so good that he would make the team look pretty dumb if they cut him. By the end of camp he was my No.2 Calder pick behind Trevor Zegras. With 14 points in 13 games it appears that the only rookie with a prayer of beating him is his teammate Seider. Drafting two elite players like that is a nice way to end the rebuild process in a hurry.

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After going six games without a point since joining the Wings, Pius Suter now has six points in his last seven games, including back-to-back two-point efforts. He's playing with Filip Zadina and Robby Fabbri.

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By now you probably picked up on Nicolas Roy's sudden surge in value over the past week since William Karlsson was sidelined long-term. Roy was close to becoming a Dobber Darling at one point early on in his Vegas career, except it was Vegas. Such a deep team that his odds of getting a fair shake were too slim so I had to reluctantly bail on the idea of making him one. But four of Vegas' best players are now out – Max Pacioretty, Mark Stone, Jack Eichel (yep, I can count him) and Karlsson. And just like that Roy gets a shot at centering Reilly Smith and Jonathan Marchessault. The line is really clicking too, completely dominating the possession metrics. Roy has five points in his last three games, with eight SOG and a plus-6 rating in that span. If he can stay healthy he'll be a strong producer – and if he can hold onto to that production for another 12 or 15 games, then he will help his case for better implementation when Karlsson does return. He's 24 and this is his big chance to show the coach that he has potential as a possible top sixer and not the bottom six where he's been stuck for the past one-plus seasons. Much is riding on this. And yes, he's a great waiver add right now.

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The new coach for the Blackhawks, Derek King, put together a nice line in Brandon Hagel, Jonathan Toews and Dominik Kubalik. It was very effective Sunday, creating 18 chances while giving up just seven against the Predators and scoring a goal.

Dylan Strome has been in the lineup for two games now and for fantasy purposes it doesn't matter – because he's playing with Mike Hardman and Mackenzie Entwistle. Just hitching a plow to a racehorse, really. To me, you put Jujhar Khaira there, move Kirby Dach to the Ryan Carpenter and Philipp Kurashev line, and try Strome again with Patrick Kane and Alex DeBrincat. That gives a three-pronged offense and a true checking line. Otherwise, just put Strome back in the press box because you're wasting everyone's time.

Eeli Tolvanen has just two points in 12 games. He took 11 SOG in his last three games so he's trying. His SOG per game is up to 3.0 (last year was 1.6) so it will come. I didn't think he should be joined at the hip with Luke Kunin anymore, and Sunday he was finally moved elsewhere. But it would be nice to see him with Ryan Johansen and Philip Tomasino – he was there for one shift on Sunday, but it was a good one and I want to see more. Tolvanen needs talent around him. He's not a driver yet, but could be a great complementary guy.

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Troy Terry continues to roll, picking up another two points Sunday. That gives him an 11-game points streak and 15 in that span. I was asked on Twitter if he's legit and I responded that he is. I have him with 75 points as an upside, and had him around there for several years. But the big question was always – can he stay healthy? This year, so far, the answer is yes. If he can continue to dodge the injury bug then his Breakout Threshold will arrive a year early. He hits 200 NHL games this coming March if he plays them all, which usually means his BT is the following season. His chemistry with Ryan Getzlaf has also reinvigorated the veteran, who might see a return to 60 points – again with the caveat that Terry stays healthy.

With Brayden Schenn out (upper-body injury), the St. Louis lines were shuffled:

Time%EV – FORWARDSGFGA+/-SFSASF%CFCACF%
12:4422.9TARASENKO – KYROU – THOMAS0007463.6151060.0
12:3922.8PERRON – O’REILLY – SAAD1016460.091047.4
10:1318.4BARBASHEV – BUCHNEVICH – KOSTIN01-19564.318772.0
7:3213.6NEAL – BOZAK – NEIGHBOURS0002340.03537.5

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Minnesota rookie Brandon Duhaime is making himself a pretty good depth option in multi-category leagues. Sunday he had three SOG, two points, two Hits and was plus-3. But he's looking like he'll take a run at 30 points this season to go with 70+ PIM, 150 Hits and 150 SOG.

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Top 10 most disappointing players I own in my three leagues (two dynasties, one Keep 12) so far:

10. Tomas Tatar – I didn't have high expectations but he's achieving new lows. I expected 50 or 55, hoped for 65. I thought New Jersey was a good fit. Guess not.

9. Eeli Tolvanen – Two stinkin' points? Thankfully I have him as a reserve player and only 'hoped' he could be active.

8. Christian Dvorak – I gave up Grigori Denisenko for this guy, who I thought (and still hope) would be a slam dunk to finally break out on a new team.

7. David Pastrnak – Too big a superstar for the points not to come, but the longer it takes to get going, the deeper the hole I need to climb out of.

6. Ryan Strome – He's had a bit of poor puck luck and is joined at the hip with Artemi Panarin, so the points will come.

5. Alex DeBrincat – A new coach could be just what the doctor ordered. I'm praying that he's not going to Vinny Prospal me here. Prospal is the legendary good-year/ bad-year/ good-year/ bad-year player. He was notorious for that – check Prospal's stats, it's very eerie.

4. Sidney Crosby I knew he would miss the start of the season, but it's Crosby – he always returns early. So I was hoping for four games. Instead it was eight, and then after one game he went and got COVID. COME ON!

3. Mark Scheifele – COVID and now a minor injury is disrupting things. And of course that one game left in his suspension. But enough already, he's my best player!

2. Kevin Fiala – Just once, can this guy come out of the gates flying? This horrible first 20-games thing, followed by the point-per-game superstar thing will get tiresome – assuming he does it again. Please do it again.

1. Mattias Ekholm – Killing me in one dynasty and the keeper. In the dynasty I traded Cam Atkinson for him because I needed to shore up my defense. In the keeper league I drafted him high this year, assuming that with no Ryan Ellis a career season was in the cards. Doesn't look like it.

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See you next Monday.

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Mar 29 - 19:03 BUF vs N.J

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FILIP FORSBERG NSH

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