Welcome back to Part III of our weaving through the new landscape of defenceman values.

You can find Part I here, where we covered the new expensive high-profile contracts signed over the summer.

And Part II here, where we looked at some of the defencemen we had previously written off as overvalued, and who we need to re-evaluate as a result of Part I.

It wasn't just big-name stars that saw values shift and get paid. There was also a shift in the value of multi-cat, bottom pairing and character, second-pair defenceman.

We could call this the 'Oleksiak Effect' as it seemingly started with the signing of Jaime Oleksiak in Seattle at $4.6M.

Personally, I had him on my summer watch list hoping he would sign for no more than $3M. He appears to have a little untapped offensive upside that, with his peripherals would have made him a really solid five-six defenceman on my roster. But, oh-no! The Seattle Kraken had to become a team and reap havoc with my strategic plan.

Ye-Gods, if they didn't just smash my Oleksiak plan all to hell! There he remains, unclaimed on the waiver wire. I didn't expect much, wished for 25-30 points and an outside shot at ten goals. He's scored at a decent clip all things considered (5.9 percent for his career).

Then the ripple affect came. Jake McCabe signed with Chicago for almost $1.5M more than Alex McLean projected. With a $4M price tag he litters free agency lists and waiver wires. A career high of 20-points and no signs of offering upside beyond that, we wanted his peripherals and wanted them to stay cheap. Sadly, he has lost value in all but the deepest of pools; perhaps even some of those.

Dreams were further crushed when Nikita Zadorov signed for $3.75M and David Savard $3.5M. Names we had grown accustomed to filling the bottom spot or two on our defence and pouring in hits and blocks for cheap.

Somehow, amidst all of this one of the elite peripheral defenceman, one we have rationalized owning at $4M in previous years signed with a new team for no increase in salary. It makes me wonder if Adam Larsson regrets not testing the open market. His value has bumped up slightly as a result.

Fear not, all is not lost. With the loss of one value defenceman there is often the emergence of another or in certain cases the re-emergence of another value defenceman. This is the joy of fantasy hockey – being the one to unearth that value.

Take Jani Hakanpaa for example. A bottom pair defenceman making $1.5M per year in Dallas, yet running at a 200-plus hit, 130-block pace. For those in search of peripherals, owning a defenceman that can yield this volume of hits and blocks at a fraction of the price of the above players is how winning rosters are built. He has taken a 3:00 minute decrease in ice time with Dallas versus last year with the Ducks so it is a bit surprising he is able to maintain his hit and block pace from the previous year. If his ice time increases, I would only expect a bit of an increase in blocks.

Then there's the resurgence of Robert Hagg. He became somewhat of a regular healthy scratch the last two years in Philadelphia. In Buffalo he finds himself averaging the most ice time of his career 18:13 per game and an extra minute per game on the penalty kill.  He's on pace for 180 hits and blocks, with upside of 200-plus for each. Buffalo isn't as porous defensively as we expected so he shouldn't implode your plus-minus (if you use it) either.

We do still have the tried, tested and true Brayden McNabb. He's in the final year of his four year, $2.5M contract, which looks a lot better than it did two years ago.  Turning 31, I think we can expect McNabb to push his salary into that $3.5 – $4M range next year, which puts him into that uncomfortable earning zone for 'bangers'.

When this type of player switches teams you really need to scrutinize the depth charts of that new team. For example, anyone that owned Mark Boroweicki as an Ottawa Senator shuddered, at least slightly, when he signed with the Nashville Predators. It all but guaranteed Boroweicki was locked into a third pair, supporting role who needed to adjust to an entirely different defensive system. Between injuries and lack of adjustment – predominantly injuries – he hasn't adjusted. As such, we've watched his value tank (as well as his ice time). His style of play has led to injuries and does not bode well for longevity.

There is also the emergence of players like Riley Stillman and Josh Brown who can provide over 200 hits, 100 plus blocks and help fill your penalty box as well. It may be too early to rely on either as much as we have come accustomed to the names above, but monitor closely.

I would be remiss to exclude a couple hidden gems for mainly points only pools. There's a bit more speculation when we talk points versus hits. Points can dry up much easier than hits. After all, if you're accustomed to putting up points, the best way to vent frustration is to make a hit!  Which is why, it is difficult to go into a slump for hits and blocks. If you lack consistent power play exposure, it is difficult to provide consistent offense in limited minutes.

Therefore, you should expect several cold streaks from these two throughout the year.

Gustav Forsling, he is offering really good value to start the year with ten points in 13 games. He's in the first year of a three year, $2.66M contract and averaging 20:53 ice time per game. With little in the way of special teams and Aaron Ekblad, Brandon Montour ahead of him you can expect his value to be sporadic throughout the year. A player like this you really need to temper expectations. Last year, his teammate MacKenzie Weegar was the exception, pacing for 50-points without any power play time.

To start the year, Forsling sat unowned in a lot of pools. I claimed him last week in a12-team league that holds twenty prospects per team. He should settle in and land in the 35-40-point range with some headaches along the way. Decent under the radar value at this cap hit and the low cost to grab him.

Then there is Oliver Kylington. A couple years ago he was a highly touted prospect. As time passed, he's 24 now, belief he would reach his potential has waned. And then Rasmus Andersson and Jusso Valimaki passed him on the depth charts. Owners gave up on him, traded him for the next shiny toy or just dropped him outright.

It's amazing what a new coach can do who relates to a young player and sees the game the same way. Signed to a one year, $750K contract, Kylington is getting a shot and making the most of it. At 16:07 of ice time, Kylington is on an unsustainable 52-point pace. The more his ice time improves and if he can obtain regular exposure to a power play unit, the more sustainable that pace becomes. He still won't get to 50-points, least that's my strongly held opinion today.

There are few non-entry level deals that offer the potential Kylington does. Like Forsling, he needs a lot to go right to sustain anything close to this pace. Watch this one closely, there's a chance at a real pay off. Considering he doesn't even make a million in salary he has a shot at becoming one of the best value players in points leagues of the year.

Bring Tylenol, there are sure to be headaches and frustrations owning both depth players throughout the year.  

To end, let's segue to a couple of former points-pool darlings that have fallen out of favour only to resurface in a huge way. Players that had found themselves shuffled onto third lines and healthy scratches, more than once in the past two years or three years.

Let's start with Kevin Shattenkirk. Who the hell saw this start coming?

With ten points in twelve games and seven from the power play this feels a lot like 'Any Given Sunday'. You know, the scene where the highly touted rookie looks on from the sidelines (Jamie Drysdale – 'Willie Beamen), while the wile vet steps back into his role as quarterback and runs the offence with cold efficiency ('Cap' Rooney' – Shattenkirk), that is how this situation feels.

I think the Anaheim Ducks success is more surprising than Shattenkirk's. As long as the Ducks are playing well, Shattenkirk should continue to see quality power play exposure. At $3.9M, he realistically should find himself back in that 40-point range by season-end. But Drysdale is watching and waiting, tick-tock.

The second player, is one of the most intriguing players of the last few years. You just can't kill a ghost.

I don't think anyone saw this coming.

Shayne Gostisbehere, now up to 11 points in 13 games on what looks to be a historically horrible Arizona Coyotes team. I had thought with a surgically repaired knee, now back to one hundred percent he would bounce back, but not like this.

And really, on this Coyotes team, this cannot be sustainable. With fourteen unrestricted agents on the roster – yes fourteen! – and one win and three points in thirteen games, they feel more like a garage sale than a hockey team.

While the Gostisbehere ride is always fun, it can't be sustainable, not a 60-point pace in the desert. Expectations need to be curbed. At $4.5M, you should get your 10-points per million, but expecting much beyond a 45-point season is setting expectations too high. The team is just too bad. Hell, 45-points may lead this team in scoring!

He may even get traded by the deadline. He is one of the 14-UFA's after all.

I've included Shattenkirk & Gostisbehere even though they feel different than the rest of the players in the article because coming into the season, they were viewed as offensive third liners fantasy owners had kind of moved on from. Over the summer, the cost to acquire either would have been relatively cheap. In some leagues, I'm sure they were picked off the waiver wire.

This is where regular hockey pools overlap salary cap pools. Along with monetary value, there's player value – cost-to-acquire. In six weeks the cost to acquire Shattenkirk and Gostisbehere has jumped. For owners not in contention, there is a window open to capitalize on their inflated value, especially Shattenkirk. He's older and keeping Drysdale's spot warm while he adjusts to the NHL. I would monitor and begin shopping if his success continues a few more games.

Gostisbehere, you can roll the dice, hold him and hope this is for real or let him add a few more points to this fast start and cash in for dollars on the pennies you spent to acquire only months ago. It is fun having the return of the 'Ghost-bear' though, even if it isn't sustainable.

Next week we'll wrap up this meandering series with a look at some of the real value contracts that still exist for defenceman.

Thanks for reading, until next week.

(all salary cap info from capfriendly.com; all stats from frozentools.com)

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