Ramblings: Crosby’s Faceoff Woes; League Leaders Across the Major Stat Categories (Nov 17)
Alexander MacLean
2021-11-17
Ottawa and New Jersey were supposed to be playing tonight. Take a look on the waiver wire and see if any mid-tier players from either team were dropped as a result of the lighter week (and keep an eye out for Predators or Rangers players for the same reason). If you're able to hold on for a lighter week now, you'll get a player that otherwise might not have been available, and the game will be made up at some point in the future.
Don't bank too much on extra games if we see more postponements though, as we did see games come after the end of fantasy seasons last year.
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Cayden Primeau got his first start for the Canadiens. He played well despite not getting much help, allowing three goals on 34 shots. He could have some short-term volume value while Jake Allen remains out, but don't rely on him if you're trying to keep your ratios low.
If you're looking for a very short-term play on a young goalie that should help your ratios, you would want to look at Jake Oettinger. One of the many goalies that the Dallas Stars have going right now, Oettinger could only see another game or two if Braden Holtby and Anton Khudobin are ready to go soon. He has some exceptional upside, and is the future of the crease in Texas.
One of the two goals against Oettinger last night was a bullet from Dylan Larkin. Larkin later exited the game due to Covid protocols. I have no idea how that works, what it means, or how the NHL could manage to be this incompetent a year and a half into a pandemic, but they need to get their rules straight, and not have strange exceptions. I know, I shouldn’t be surprised.
This could mean that Larkin may need to miss a minimum of 10 days, or he could be back for the Wings’ next game. Tough to guess at this point.
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The Rangers' third line winger Sammy Blais is done for the season with a torn ACL. The timeline expected for him is six-to-eight months, so he should be able to get in a fairly normal offseason, and be ready for next year.
Up on the top line, Kaapo Kakko is heating up, with two points and three goals in his last two games now, the 20-year-old is finally showing some glimpses of the high upside and high-caliber linemates that he is playing with.
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Jakob Chychrun watch:
Minus-two last night to put him at minus-24 on the season through 16 games. Still well on pace for the record and the legendary minus-100 plateau.
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Sidney Crosby has been uncharacteristically terrible in the faceoff circle of late. He is under 42% in all three games, and that if anything is what makes me a little concerned about his short-term value. If everything was normal for him and it was just a slump, he would be his usual self in the faceoff circle, winning about 54% of his draws. However, this red flag then draws your attention to the fact that he is also playing two minutes less than usual. His injury and subsequent placement on the Covid list could have really thrown him off, and he may take a few weeks to settle in.
He did notch a powerplay assist last night for his first point of the season, but there's a fair way to go before he's back where fantasy owners expect him to be. If we get to mid-December and his production still hasn't corrected, then I'll look into buying in. Keep an eye on the faceoffs though, as that may be the first spot where we see signs of life.
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Johnny Gaudreau has been a bit snake-bitten recently after a hot start, but putting up double digit shots on goal will help change that. The turnaround is going to be swift.
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Jesperi Kotkaniemi is now the fourth line centre in Carolina. Make of that what you will, but it's not good for his value.
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The Leafs acquired Kyle Clifford from the Blues for magic beans future considerations. He cleared waivers earlier in the day, and will report to the Marlies. A little extra organizational depth is never a bad thing, and the Leafs can afford to stick his entire one-way contract in the minors. He shouldn't be on your fantasy radar even in the deepest of leagues unless there is a myriad of injuries in Toronto.
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Aleksander Barkov left after taking a knee-on-knee from Scott Mayfield. He limped off with a bit of help, and from the way his knee bent I would be surprised to see him playing in Florida's next game. Keep an eye on Anton Lundell grabbing a bigger share of the ice time in his absence.
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I'm going to dive into our FrozenTools Report Generator, and discuss a bunch of players in the top five of each stat on the big board, highlighting some interesting names or statistically relevant tidbits. All stats from the start of the season through November 14th.
Top five in goals: Leon Draisaitl (15), Alex Ovechkin (12), Troy Terry (11), Kyle Connor (11), Chris Kreider (11)
Terry is breaking out, and we can all see that, but why the sudden surge from Chris Kreider. Well there appears to be a bit of a conscious effort by the team to stick him in front of, or beside the net, and throw pucks towards him. I've never seen so many goals within three feet of the net, and most of them on redirected passes. He's getting more shots off this year too, which means that along with getting to the high-percentage areas, he may end up not regressing too hard from his current 25% shooting percentage. He likely won't score 50+ goals, but 29 more in another 65 games doesn't sound too unreasonable for his first ever 40-goal season.
Top five in assists: Connor McDavid (17), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (17), Leon Draisaitl (16), Ryan Getzlaf (15), Alex Ovechkin (14)
I talked about Getzlaf and his shot rates not long ago, but the assist numbers seem to be keeping him afloat, and the points actually look to be sustainable alongside Terry. There's nothing worrisome under the hood. Meanwhile, the EDM trio showing up here shouldn't surprise anyone. What is surprising though is Ovechkin putting up his highest assist rate in… well ever. Not only is it higher than ever, but it's more than double what he has done in over a decade. That's worth looking into.
Ovechkin's power play totals don't look too much out of line with his usual, so he's putting up all of these extra assists at even strength. Both of his linemates, Evgeny Kuznetsov and Tom Wilson, are shooting 14%, which is actually quite average for the pair. There are a few underlying numbers that are concerning though, with an extremely high 1114 PDO, and a team shooting percentage of 18% while Ovechkin is on the ice. Those on top of a secondary assist percentage that's double his usual, coupled with an IPP that's 130% of his usual, and it all spells out that he's due for some regression there.
Add in the fact that Nicklas Backstrom is due to return soon, and should take on more puck carrying and distributing duties, which means less touches for Ovechkin (though perhaps more open shooting looks). Overall, he's playing exceptionally well, and it's tough to recoup enough value when you're trying to move a 36-year-old. You're likely best off just sitting back and enjoying the long ride into the sunset.
Top five in power play points: Connor McDavid (13), Leon Draisaitl (11), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (11), Brad Marchand (9), Roman Josi (8)
As a big Roman Josi fan I'm going to use this as an excuse to look into him a little. He's up over a point-per-game, and is a huge reason that the Nashville Predators aren't otherwise a basement team in the NHL – the plays all run through him when he's on the ice. However, his production is buoyed by a high shooting percentage, meaning he should only have two or three goals where he currently has six. His power play production specifically is also unsustainable. Despite the fact that everything does usually run through him for the Predators, he won't continue to record a point on every single one of the power play points where he is on the ice. Over the last few years he has hovered around 70%, which is much more typical for a player of his talent and style. His final production line will likely fall somewhere between his last two seasons, maybe around 70 points overall, and 22 powerplay points. That would mean in the remaining 67 games, he would be in line for 54 points and 14 power play points. Make of that what you will, but he will likely fade a little (but not too much) in the second half.
Top five in power play time on ice: Alex Ovechkin (5:12), Seth Jones (4:56), Patrick Kane (4:51), Alex Debrincat (4:45), Elias Pettersson (4:32)
Alex Ovechkin in the top spot here is nothing new. The Blackhawks trio is interesting, and should continue to rack up PPPs all season. DeBrincat only having four may present a bit of a buy-low window, but that's a relative term as he does have five points in his last five games. Jonathan Toews is also averaging over four minutes of ice time per game with the man advantage, though his power play IPP is under 30% right now, which would suggest that he's due to luck into a few more points very soon. He's looking more comfortable every game, and might be someone to look into in non-cap leagues.
Top five in plus-minus: Nick Jensen (15), Alex Ovechkin (14), Leon Draisaitl (12), Anthony Duclair (12), Tom Wilson (12)
It makes sense that there's a grouping from one team here, but Jensen stands out as the lone defenceman, not a high-level player, and his career high is plus-five. If your league is deep enough that he's owned, and you happen to own him in a league counting plus-minus, then he's a definite sell because of some astronomical underlying percentages.
Anthony Duclair being up here is also noteworthy as none of his Panthers teammates are with him at the top of the plus-minus standings. He has played in the top-six all season, and really has just lucked into playing on lines when they're not getting scored against. Although, at some point it stops being considered luck. He was plus-27 last season, good for second on the team behind Mackenzie Weegar, and 15 ahead of both Aleksander Barkov and Jonathan Huberdeau. Duclair is also playing more defensive minutes than Barkov (as a percentage of their total ice time anyways) and is seeing much tougher competition than Huberdeau. His quality for and against is the best on the team, and I think he's an extremely underrated defensive forward, that is also racking up plusses by playing with some all-world players. He should be on this leaderboard all season.
Top five in penalty minutes: Liam O'Brien (36), Marcus Foligno (34), Brady Tkachuk (31), Nathan Bastian (31), Antoine Roussel (31)
Less than one-third of my leagues still use PIMs as a stat category, and I don't think it's one that makes a whole ton of sense as a fantasy stat. However, it's ingrained as one, so it stays, and therefore it must be discussed here.
If there's anything to be gained from the Arizona Coyotes on your fantasy team, it's from PIMs, as the team gets frustrated and tries to do the only thing they can do about it. O'Brien and Roussel should keep up a steady stream all year.
Brady Tkachuk has seen his shot rate drop off a little, though the penalty minutes have gone up a little. IT's the shot rate that makes him so dynamic though, so even though he's still firing three shots per game, not being up at that four shots per game level does take him down a notch and out of that top tier level. Hopefully – and I bet – it is just him getting back up to speed after missing all of training camp. He's not someone you will likely ever get full value for in trading.
Meanwhile, Marcus Foligno is turning into one of the best multi-category owns out there, and no one seems to be talking about him. Over the last 50 games, he has scored at a 55-point full season pace, racked up one PIM per game and nearly three hits per game. His downfall is that he doesn't shoot quite as much as most fantasy owners would like, putting just one shot on net per game. Foligno though is finally seeing more offensive ice time, in terms of zone starts and power play time. If this deployment holds, then his shot rate may inch upwards with some familiarity to the role. There's some untapped upside here for the second half in bangers leagues.
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Feel free to find me on Twitter @alexdmaclean if you have any fantasy hockey questions.