Ramblings – Evaluating the Sustainability of Surprise Producers, the Devils’ Duo and more (Nov 29)

Dobber

2021-11-29

The date of the Midseason Guide is now set – and it will be January 15. This Guide comes with your Ultimate Fantasy Pack or Gold/Platinum subscriptions. It does not come with the Keeper League Fantasy Pack nor the Silver subs. You can pre-order it here.

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Aliaksei Protas (or Alexei Protas) is making a splash as a pro. The 6-6 center for Washington has the benefit of being in a minor-league system that is about as shallow as it gets, so he'll get plenty of opportunity. His size certainly helps. But since being called up by the Caps he is really making an impression. He scored his first NHL goal Sunday and now has four points in 11 games. Probably not fantasy worth this season, except in the deepest leagues. But he makes for an intriguing option down the road. Not a potential first-liner, and seems likely to be a third-line guy in the mold of a Brian Boyle. But there is a bit of upside to be a second-liner in four or five years. His DobberProspects profile is here. Because of his size, the Caps are using him on the power play – at the expense of Connor McMichael.

If you were asked – who has more points right now, Tony DeAngelo or Andrei Svechnikov, what would you say? The answer is: they are tied with 20 points each in 20 games. But while Svechnikov has just two points in his last six games, DeAngelo has nine in his last eight. The controversy over the Canes signing TDA is but a distant, faded memory, eh?

What is concerning for Svechnikov owners is the fact that he was getting his points with Vincent Trocheck and Martin Necas, or to a lesser extent with Sebastian Aho and Teuvo Teravainen. But he isn't playing with them. He is with Jordan Staal and Jesper Fast.

If Alex Ovechkin scores another goal this year – and I'm going to boldly predict that he will – then he will become the seventh player in NHL history to reach 20 in 17 straight seasons.

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The Wild continue to roll thanks to Kirill Kaprizov continuing his torrid season, and Kevin Fiala (10 points in his last 10 games) finally finding his game. But there are many other factors as well, such as their depth scoring via Ryan Hartman, Marcus Foligno and… Rem Pitlick? And on Sunday, he and Hartman actually played with Kaprizov. Since Pitlick scored that hat trick on November 13 he has moving up into better offensive roles. Overall he has seven points in his last eight contests. Pitlick will slow down of course, as he has been far too lucky according to the metrics. But for now he should be owned and active in roto leagues until he's removed from that line.

The side effect of Minnesota's strong play and their traditionally stingy defense is a solid season from Cam Talbot. Since November 11 he is 5-3-0, 2.54 and 0.924 with 6 QS in those eight games. They're playing the hell out of him and if he can stay healthy I strongly believe he gets 68+ games in – the second-most of his career. His stats won't be the best, but they'll be decent and that kind of workload holds a lot of fantasy value. Especially if your league values totals over averages (i.e. saves versus SV%). Playing a huge workload is also advantageous for wins – and Talbot leads the league (tied) right now with 12.

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Last season Timo Meier had 21 points in his first 32 games. This season, with two points Sunday, he has 20 in his first 16 games. With Jonathan Dahlen back in the lineup, San Jose's top line was reunited (along with Logan Couture).

Since 2019-20, James Reimer is 39-16-6 with a 2.50 GAA and 0.917 SV% with Carolina and San Jose. Teams don't trust him to be their starter because of his proneness to injury, but his numbers (including a 55.2 QS%) are quite solid and reliable. In fact, in the last two-plus seasons looking at all the San Jose goalies, the top SV% by any other goalie is Aaron Dell (33 games) at 0.907. Reimer has given the Sharks their best goaltending in years. Can the 33-year-old finally stay healthy?

Seth Jones played 29 minutes on Sunday. It was a regulation game.

Tough to own a Blackhawk right now. Dominik Kubalik is pointless in seven, Patrick Kane has just a point in five, Kirby Dach is pointless in four, Alex DeBrincat has one in four and Jonathan Toews has one in seven (and minus-5 in that span). I had to drop Strome today – couldn't carry the baggage any longer. I had been hoping for a trade, or for the new coach to get him going.

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Andreas Johnsson picked up four points on Sunday (and was plus-5!) as he and Jesper Bratt continue making magic together. Bratt had three. That gives Johnsson six points in two games, 15 in his last 15. He had a rough go of things in his new city last season, but now that he's clicking with Bratt (and Bratt was injured a lot in 2020-21) and rookie Dawson Mercer he seems to be a safe play. Bratt, incidentally, has 17 points in his last 14.

Dougie Hamilton had 10 shots on goal. Ten! It was the second time he's done that this year and third time (from what I could dig up) in his career. He had an 11-shot game last season. Hamilton put a young girl's name on his stick – Thea – who he had grown close to and who passed away from cancer, scored a goal for her.

Interesting about Keith Yandle – he had five points in the first three games…zero points in the next 17. The 35-year-old has indeed hit his career wall.

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Marc Bergevin reminds me of a guy in my pool who always does questionable trades and they shockingly pan out for him. When Bergevin traded PK Subban for Shea Weber the move was widely panned. But he won that deal by a mile. Ditto for the Max Pacioretty trade. And Alex Galchenyuk for Max Domi? That was also hated, but that turned out okay too. Bergevin made his mistakes, but I think in overall he did well and the team he built went to the Cup Final just 23 games ago. So why fire him? Very odd.

But that's my segue to the Vancouver game. A team that actually should fire its GM (and coach). This team should be much better than their current record. How many more losses will it take?

That being said, it's not all the GM and coach. Elias Pettersson has just a point in nine games and minus-8 in that span. Right now the team is playing to get rid of their coach.

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With two points Sunday, Patrice Bergeron has 15 in his last 11. David Pastrnak (one point) has 13 in his last 10, while Brad Marchand (one point) has points in 11 of his last 12 games (17 points). Bergeron is 36 and Marchand is 33 and there are no signs of slowing down.

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Toronto has won seven games in a row on the road.

I'm not the biggest Wayne Simmonds fan at this point in his career, but I have to give props when he strings together a three-game points streak and has 2-2-4 with 12 SOG in his last five games.

Since November 11, John Gibson is 3-4-0 with a 3.00 GAA and 0.902 SV%.

Michael Bunting has quietly posted a four-game points streak with a plus-5 rating and 12 SOG in that span. He has seven points in his last eight. He's playing on the big line with Mitch Marner and Auston Matthews.

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Real or Illusion?

Here are some players who are just eye-popping with their numbers. Crazy stats that are just too much to believe. But just how much is real and how much is illusion?

Nazem Kadri – 27 points in 18 games!

And 23 of those points are in the last 12. Obviously unsustainable. But by how much? The 5on5 S% points to a dip of maybe 25%. He's being used in an offensive capacity in terms of the way he's being sheltered – but no different than last season (below-average Quality of Competition and mostly offensive zone starts). A huge chunk of his production is from the power play, and he's seeing a 15% increase in PP time thanks to the Nathan MacKinnon injury. So how far will things settle down? I suspect that when MacKinnon returns, Kadri slips to a 63-point pace. But that's still a career-best pace and do you know what? That still has him ending up with 79-80 points when the season ends. He has given himself so much of a cushion that even slipping back to reality still has him flirting with 80. Toss in the fact that his linemates are still getting better (Andre Burakovsky and Valeri Nichushkin) and this is a fairly safe bet. Reality Rating: 6.0/10

Troy Terry (23 points in 21 games) – Terry has finally slowed down a little with just one in his last four, but prior to that he had a 16-game points streak on the go. And while his S% is out of whack at 27.1%, his 5on5 S% is a reasonable 8.2%. So his goal total (13) is too high and the rate will obviously come down. In the end, I see him reaching 60 points – assuming he stays healthy. But given his pro career so far, that seems unlikely. Pencil him in for 70 games and 50 points and if he does kick the injury bug and play 80 games, then 60+ is absolutely doable. Reality Rating: 7.5/10

Matt Duchene (22 points in 21 games) – Duchene, who turns 30 in about six weeks, is having a career season. He has flirted with a point-per-game average twice before – in contract years. Just checking my notes here…nope, not a contract year. So what gives? Well, first of all, his shooting percentage is ridiculous at 21%. His career is around 12.8%. So while his assists are moving along at a proper rate (nine in 21 games), his goal total (13) is about five or six too high. Things will come down to earth, but this will still be his second-best season in the last eight years. If he can stay healthy he'll reach 60 points. Reality Rating: 4.5/10

Chandler Stephenson (20 points in 21 games) – Stephenson has done all this mostly without his star linemates. Now that they're back, does that mean he'll do even better? You'd think so, but let's not forget that he had Mark Stone and Max Pacioretty last season. And while he finished his Breakout Threshold last season and is entering his prime at 27, his S% of 21.1% is still far too high and so is his 5on5 S%. For Stephenson I am going to use his 0.69 points-per-game average from last year as his "going forward" number. I'll say 47 points in the final 61 contests, giving him 67 in total to end the season. Reality Rating: 7.0/10

The Reality Rating is something I just made up, and has no scientific or statistical backing.

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Today at two o'clock (EST) we find out of a team claimed Evander Kane. After last season's incredible on-ice performance and the type of playoff-style hockey that he brings, I would love to see a team claim him. But optically? Well, I don't think teams care about the gambling addiction. They would obviously care about the allegations of spousal abuse and the dressing-room stuff. I'd love to see a team grab him because of the waves it would create, not unlike when Carolina signed Tony DeAngelo (don't see anyone upset over that one anymore…).

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Rick Roos is looking for questions for his mailbag, and you know how thorough he is when he researches his answers. Email here if you have questions about players that you want analyzed.

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See you next Monday.

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