Ramblings: Looking Ahead Towards Playoffs in Fantasy Leagues; Farabee Injured – December 2

Michael Clifford

2021-12-02

There was a very good article on the site yesterday from Eastern Edge writer Brennan Des looked at Tage Thompson and some New Jersey hot starts. What caught my eye in that article was Brennan looking at the fantasy playoff schedule. We are a quarter of the way into the season and leagues with fantasy playoffs typically have them over the final month of the season; perhaps another 15 games or so. That means we have ~45 games worth of play time left in regular season fantasy leagues, which is not very much time.

I wanted to take this Ramblings to look to the playoff schedule. There are fantasy teams out there that are 6-1 or 7-0 or whatever, and are likely to cruise to their playoffs. Funny enough, there are never fantasy articles written for these teams. It is always about how to rebound from a bad start, or how to sell off current assets to build for the future. What about teams that don't really need to change much?

The fact there isn't much to change is the reason for the lack of ink spilled, but that doesn't mean there aren't preparations that can't be made. So, with that in mind, let's look at the post-Olympic schedule, maybe some injured players that will return, and what top-end fantasy rosters should do. We will be looking from the start of March through to the end of April.

Evgeni Malkin/Jack Eichel

The two big returnees from injury, at least among forwards, are Pittsburgh's Evgeni Malkin and Vegas's Jack Eichel. While they have different timelines – Malkin has been skating with teammates in a non-contact jersey of late while Eichel is just three weeks removed from neck surgery and will need at least two more months – they both have the potential to be monsters in the fantasy playoffs.

From March 10th through the end of the month, a span of 22 days, the Penguins have 12 games. Included in those dozen contests are two against the Rangers, one against Buffalo, and one against the Islanders (if they don't turn their ship around). Four of those 12 games are also on Wednesday, Friday, or Sunday, giving us plenty of off-days to use Malkin as well. His problem is that once March is over, the team enters April with just five games in 11 days and three of those games are Colorado or Washington. After that, the next five games include Boston twice, and then the fantasy season ends. It is a tight window of Malkin's value that closes as soon as the calendar turns to April, but he will have a lot of value in mid-late March if he's healthy.

For Eichel, the Golden Knights have 15 games in the first 26 days in March. Five of those games come on off-days as well, so there is good value here. There are a lot of likely playoff teams in that schedule, but if we're averaging four games every seven days for four weeks, we'll take that volume. The bonus is that either he returns for the Olympics as he hopes and gets game-ready wearing Team USA colours, or he can't and he still has games to get ready at the end of February before the calendar rolls to March.  

There is always risk in acquiring injured players, namely that they don't get healthy. Those are risks teams at the top of their league can take, though, in hopes to bolster their upcoming playoff run.

New York Islanders

I have written over the last couple weeks about all the problems the Islanders are enduring, and that all holds true. However, that doesn't mean whatever problems they have now will persist for two more months, and we need to look for value wherever we can find it.

Remember that the Islanders started the season on a massive road trip and have a lot of home games to make up. For the month of March, the Islanders have 16 games in 31 days, and 11 of those 16 games are at home. Of those 16 games, five are either on Fridays or Sundays, giving them a handful of off-day games that are of use of well.

This one is a much more wait-and-see approach. There is now need to run out now to trade for Mathew Barzal or Semyon Varlamov. We have a couple months to see if the Islanders can turn their season around. But it is worth keeping a close eye on them. If they start to right the ship, prices in the trade market are likely to stay low for a while as league mates catch up on realizing that. Just watch for the Isles over the next couple months because there may be some players worth going after for the fantasy playoffs.

Colorado

Another team with a great March schedule is the Colorado Avalanche. Now, naturally, a lot of these players will cost more to acquire in a trade than Islanders skaters, but that doesn't mean they aren't worth noting here.

While the Avalanche don't have an, erm, pile of games in March 2022 – 15 in 31 days – it's when they have their games that matters here. Out of those 15 contests, a full seven are on off-days of Monday, Wednesday, Friday, or Sunday. March will be a busy month in the NHL, so fantasy rosters are likely to be full on Tuesday/Thursday/Saturday. Not that we'd be benching top-end Colorado options on any night, the decisions on guys like Sam Girard or Andre Burakovsky will present themselves on full slates. Those decisions aren't a thing on off-days.

Keep the depth players from Colorado in mind as the Olympics pass. There should be lots of options on off-days, so being ahead of the curve to get guys like Nazem Kadri or Burakovsky on your fantasy roster is likely a good idea.

Just beware that the March schedule isn't particularly easy, it's just that the days of their games can work out to our benefit.

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Tuukka Rask

This is obviously a more well-known injury return and it's a risky one, too. Rask has just started skating so I wouldn't expect a return here until 2022, and hip surgery for a 30-something goalie is always a concern. The fact remains that the Bruins are a top team (I truly believe they'll rebound fully from early struggles) and when Rask comes back, he'll be no worse than the 1B goalie for them. While timelines and everything differ, this is a team that is looking forward to getting their starting goalie back.

Goalies are notoriously difficult to come across during the fantasy season. Everyone is competing for the same handful of guys that breakout, or backups of starters that get injured, and the pool is much smaller than any other position. A goalie returning from a hip problem might not spark confidence, but once the end of the year rolls around, there may not be many other choices available.  

Ottawa's final 16 games starting March 29

Hockey is a funny game but there could be a scenario where Ottawa – a team trending to another lottery pick – is a fantasy league-winning team down the stretch. There are some reasons why I still enjoy fantasy sports, and quirks like this are one major reason why.

Regardless, Ottawa has a stretch of games beginning March 29th that looks very advantageous: from that point through April 23rd, the second-to-last week of the season, the Senators have 13 games in 26 days. Those games include two against Montreal, three against Detroit, one against Buffalo, and one against the Rangers. At a minimum it looks like seven games against likely non-playoff teams, and maybe even more depending on the fates of Columbus and New Jersey. Not that a lottery team ever has an easy schedule, but comparatively, there are teams here where the Sens could have big games.

How Ottawa's season goes, I'm pessimistic. The defensive numbers were rough before the shutdown and it's hard to imagine COVID running through this team will make them better at hockey for the time being. I was very high on the top line before the year started but there have just been too many disruptions.

That doesn't mean there is no fantasy value here. In fact, undervalued fantasy value is the best kind of fantasy value. Leagues where plus/minus count are a serious concern, but the Sens have a very good schedule down the stretch. Looking to acquire some of the top-end guys like Tkachuk or Chabot around the Olympics might not be a bad idea if you're at the top of your league.

*

Igor Shesterkin had a great game for the Rangers again, saving 33 of 34 in a 4-1 win over the Flyers on Wednesday night. He really is just one of the best goalies in the world, it seems.

We should note that Joel Farabee was injured in this one. He lost an edge and crashed into the boards, favouring his shoulder/arm. He tried another shift but left the game and did not return. Keep an eye on that one.

Artemi Panarin had a goal and an assist in this one with Kaapo Kakko grabbing a couple helpers here. Dryden Hunt scored too, as he looks to be a nice addition to the second line.

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