Every Sunday, we share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean, and Dobber

___

1. Real or Illusion? Players with crazy stats that are just too much to believe. But just how much is real and how much is illusion?

Nazem Kadri – 27 points in 19 games (entering Saturday)! And 26 of those points are in the last 15. Obviously unsustainable. But by how much? The 5on5 S% points to a dip of maybe 25%. He’s being used in an offensive capacity in terms of the way he’s being sheltered – but no different than last season (below-average Quality of Competition and mostly offensive zone starts).

A huge chunk of his production has been from the power play, as he saw a 15% increase in PP time thanks to the Nathan MacKinnon injury. So, how far will things settle down? I suspect that with MacKinnon back, Kadri slips to a 63-point pace. But that’s still a career-best pace and do you know what? That still has him ending up with 79-80 points when the season ends. He has given himself so much of a cushion that even slipping back to reality still has him flirting with 80. Toss in the fact that his linemates are still getting better (Andre Burakovsky and Valeri Nichushkin) and this is a fairly safe bet. Reality Rating: 6.0/10 (nov29)

2. Troy Terry (25 points in 24 games) – Terry has finally slowed down a little with just three points in his last seven games, but prior to that he had a 16-game points streak on the go. And while his S% is out of whack at 27.8%, his 5on5 S% is a reasonable 8.6%. So, his goal total (15) is too high and the rate will obviously come down. In the end, I see him reaching 60 points – assuming he stays healthy. But given his pro career so far, that seems unlikely. Pencil him in for 70 games and 50 points and if he does kick the injury bug and play 80 games, then 60+ is absolutely doable. Reality Rating: 7.5/10 (nov29)

3. He’s not the starting goalie in Calgary, but he’s been impressive. Following his win on Friday, Dan Vladar has a 5-0-1 record with a 1.78 GAA and a .939 SV%. Even more noteworthy, all six of these games have been on the road. Vladar is worth streaming whenever he’s announced as the starter. (dec4)

4. Rickard Rakell has eight goals in 15 games. That’s just one fewer goal than he scored all of last season. The Ducks look better this season and so does Rakell. Since he is available in about three-quarters of Yahoo leagues, Rakell could be a Duck to consider adding from your waiver wire for next week. (dec4)

5. A Twitter follower asked me about dropping Mark Scheifele. As much as I’ve been disappointed in Scheifele this season, I told her to remain patient. There’s a reason that I advise people not to give up on star players too quickly, and Friday was yet another example as to why. Scheifele scored a hat trick, added an assist, and took five shots. He managed to break a seven-game goal slump in a massive way while scoring more goals in one game than he had all season (2). Hopefully, that game provides the spark that Scheifele needs to get back on track, and hopefully I don’t receive any more lowball offers on him. (dec4)

6. Often when one player struggles, so do the linemates. So it should come as no surprise that Scheifele’s usual linemate Blake Wheeler has also had his share of issues scoring. The Winnipeg captain is still without a goal this season and we’re already into early December. However, he helped fantasy owners on Friday by chipping in three assists. Wheeler has always been more about the assists than the goals anyway, but the goal scoring has completely fallen off a cliff. Age-related decline may be a concern, as Wheeler was taking just over three shots per game as he was about to turn 30. Now that he’s 35, he’s only averaging just over two shots per game. Fantasy-wise, he’s a diminishing asset. (dec4)

7. Because Craig Anderson is injured and Aaron Dell has been ineffective, the Sabres acquired Malcolm Subban from the Blackhawks on Thursday. Subban should push Dustin Tokarski for starts in the near term, although chances are you’re not interested in the Sabres goalie situation anyway. If you’re waiting on Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen to get called up, do you really want the Sabres team as currently constructed playing in front of him? (dec3)

8. If there’s a silver lining in Buffalo this season, it might be the revival of Kyle Okposo and Jeff Skinner, who were both considered irrelevant in fantasy leagues before the season. Both are scoring at a 50+ point pace, which is a considerable improvement over last season. Although the league would have to be deep, I’d be kind of okay with adding either player. (dec3)

9. I will mention that this is still very much a season in flux. By that, I don’t think the season will be cancelled, but COVID sure isn’t going away and we still don’t really know what this new omicron variant is capable of. That may affect the league in terms of games that may need to be cancelled and rescheduled, not to mention whether NHL players go to the Olympics. So, there’s a bit of living day by day here, as well. As Mike Tyson said, everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth. Expect plenty more twists and turns in the day-to-day operation of your fantasy team. (dec3)

10. Neither Joonas Korpisalo nor Elvis Merzlikins were feeling well, so Daniil Tarasov was recalled to make his first-even NHL start on Thursday. His AHL numbers this season have been pedestrian (2.96 GAA, .897 SV%), so he will likely be back in the AHL once both regular goalies are feeling better.

However, Tarasov is projected to challenge for the No. 1 goalie spot one day. For more on Tarasov, see his Dobber Prospects profile. Tarasov performed reasonably well in his debut (34 saves on 37 shots), but he ultimately fell 3-2 to a red-hot Stars team that has now won six games in a row. (dec3)

11. The date of the Midseason Guide is now set – and it will be January 15. This Guide comes with your Ultimate Fantasy Pack or Gold/Platinum subscriptions. It does not come with the Keeper League Fantasy Pack nor the Silver subs. You can pre-order it here. (dec1)

12. If there are rumblings that the Bruins will bring Tuukka Rask back into the fold, that hasn’t been based on the play of Jeremy Swayman (2.20 GAA, 0.921 SV%, 72.7 QS% entering Saturday). Although Rask has a long history with the Bruins, it’s kind of a curious move with Linus Ullmark signed for four years.

Do the Bruins try to trade Ullmark? (Unlikely this season, because they were thinking long-term with the contract.) Does Swayman get demoted, since he’s waiver-exempt? (If he starts to struggle or needs playing time, yes, he’s the odd man out.) I think the most likely scenario right away if Rask is signed is the three-headed monster, which of course will reduce the value of everyone involved. The glass half-full theory suggests that it will keep everyone fresh, but anyone rostering one of these three goalies won’t think of it that way. (dec3)

13. Two big returnees from injury, at least among forwards, will be Pittsburgh’s Evgeni Malkin and Vegas’s Jack Eichel. While they have different timelines – Malkin has been skating with teammates in a non-contact jersey of late, while Eichel is just three weeks removed from neck surgery and will need at least two more months – they both have the potential to be monsters in the fantasy playoffs… 

That said, I want to take this Ramblings to look at the playoff schedule. There are fantasy teams out there that are 6-1 or 7-0 or whatever, and are likely to cruise to their playoffs. Funny enough, there are never fantasy articles written for these teams. It is always about how to rebound from a bad start, or how to sell off current assets to build for the future. What about teams that don’t really need to change much?

For more, follow the link as Mike Clifford looks at the post-Olympic schedule, maybe some injured players that will return, and what top-end fantasy rosters should do. (dec2)

14. The New Jersey Devils extended their franchise cornerstone Jack Hughes to an eight-year deal that sees him earning $8 million per season through the 2028-29 season. My contract projections had him in the $5-6 million AAV ballpark, which would have made some sense on a short-term bridge deal. The Devils sure didn’t want to bet against him popping off right away, so it’s a big price tag to fit for cap league owners in the immediate future, but he should be playing up to (or even way past) that level very soon.

In Hughes’ return from a shoulder injury, he actually played wing alongside Yegor Sharangovich and Nico Hischier through the first two periods. In the third Janne Kuokkanen was swapped for Hischier, with Sharangovich taking the faceoffs. (dec1)

15. Filip Forsberg scored four goals last Tuesday and all I could think of was how many millions he added to his wallet. He’s a UFA at the end of the year, and there is a very real possibility that he doesn’t finish the season in Nashville as they continue to re-tool. Wherever he ends up though, he will likely be in a better fantasy situation than his last few years with very little support in Nashville.

That’s great news for owners in fantasy leagues, though in cap leagues there’s a need to be cautious. The new contract will likely be a few million higher than a career 60-point forward deserves. Forsberg has shown flashes of being able to produce at a higher level, but can never keep it up with any consistency, in addition to having horrible timing with injuries just as he’s heating up.

My projections have Forsberg around $8.5 million per year on his next contract, which is about $1.5 million more than what I would be comfortable paying him, especially if he gets any kind of term on it. (dec1)

16. The depth of the Tampa Bay Lightning just keeps stepping up when they need the next man to produce. Taylor Raddysh scored the first goal of his career this week and should be a staple in the lineup next year. This year he’s still on a two-way deal, and when the entire lineup is healthy there are too many veterans that are blocking his way. When Pat Maroon and Ondrej Palat likely walk in the offseason, the path will be clear for a full-time lineup spot next season, just as his contract switches to a one-way deal.

He may not pop immediately, but there’s some upside here over the next few years, as he did put up excellent numbers in the OHL and AHL. This kind of contract structure is a great way to find the next guy up if your league is deep enough to stash these kinds of players. (dec1)

17. I have talked extensively about how Darryl Sutter was going to turn and has turned the Flames around, so that’s ground that doesn’t need to be covered. What does need to be covered is Oliver Kylington, because I think he’s a big reason for the turnaround.

To be sure, the top line has been great and Coleman/Mangiapane has made a wonderful shutdown duo on the second line alongside Backlund. Add in superlative goaltending from Jacob Markstrom, and there are a lot of storylines that will paper over what Kylington has done, but his role has been as vital as any other aside from Markstrom’s.

On the season he had 13 points in 22 games entering Friday games. What works out to roughly a 50-point pace, and here’s the kicker: just one power-play point (recorded on Thursday). Every other point has come at even strength. When something like that happens, I tend to think it’s a player having a hot month riding the coattails of a good line. The thing is, Calgary is still good offensively when Kylington is on the ice without the top line. All of this points to a good start for Kylington, and that makes him a fascinating player. For Mike's in-depth analysis, follow the link… (nov30)

18. On the Habs front, former Rangers GM Jeff Gorton was introduced as Montreal’s, I guess, co-GM last Monday. The team said they are searching for, essentially, a partner for Gorton, and one that is bilingual as to communicate with the francophone fanbase.

As the resident Habs fan, I’m indifferent here. Gorton seemed fine with the Rangers, making some great deals like the acquisitions and/or signings of Mika Zibanejad, Artemi Panarin, Adam Fox, among other home runs. He also made some mistakes on the blue line like Brendan Smith‘s contract, signing Jack Johnson, and I still think the Jacob Trouba contract will not work out, though that’s more conjecture than anything for now.

The same could have been said for Bergevin, honestly: home runs in things like signing Tyler Toffoli, Brendan Gallagher‘s first contract, the Max Pacioretty trade, the Jeff Petry trade, and so on. Then we have things like Carey Price‘s monster contract, letting Alex Radulov walk (though bringing him in was good, so we’ll call that a wash), the David Savard contract is already looking bad, Karl Alzner‘s atrocious contract (which will go down as one of the worst of the cap era) and just the failed development of nearly every prospect for a decade.

Is Gorton better? I don’t know. I legitimately don’t know. What I do know is Montreal has maybe $4.5M in cap space next year, and that’s with Shea Weber on LTIR, and nine players to sign, including half their blue line. If by some longshot Weber is able to play next year – which, to be clear, is in serious doubt – then they’re already $3M over the cap with eight players to sign.

All this is to say: either way, Gorton and whomever his mystery partner is (I’m betting it’s Hollywood Hogan) have their work cut out for them next year. Just rolling over this roster another season with a couple low-priced additions on the blue line is not going to fly. It is a new era in Montreal and the work needs to start immediately. (nov30)

19. Aliaksei Protas (or Alexei Protas) is making a splash as a pro. The 6-6 center for Washington has the benefit of being in a minor-league system that is about as shallow as it gets, so he’ll get plenty of opportunity. His size certainly helps. But since being called up by the Caps he is really making an impression. He scored his first NHL goal last week and had four points in 13 games entering Saturday.

Probably not fantasy worth this season, except in the deepest leagues. But he makes for an intriguing option down the road. Not a potential first-liner, and seems likely to be a third-line guy in the mold of a Brian Boyle. But there is a bit of upside to be a second-liner in four or five years. His DobberProspects profile is here. (nov29)

20. With 11 goals, Jordan Eberle stands to surpass the 16 goals that he scored for the Islanders in his last two seasons (in 55 and 58 games). He has done this while maintaining the same shot pace (2.3 SOG/GP) over those two previous seasons, so he could exceed expectations in his first season in Seattle. Eberle’s advanced stats are a mixed bag (a whole rainbow of colors on Frozen Tools), but his 22.0 SH% means that the goal pace could drop. (nov28)

21. Kris Russell might not be a name at the top of minds in fantasy leagues. However, he became the all-time leader in a certain roto category last week. Russell has now passed Brent Seabrook (1,998) as the all-time leader in blocked shots with more than 2,000 and counting . The stat hasn’t been recorded for a long period of time, but it is an accomplishment nevertheless. Standing in front of a puck travelling at a high rate of speed requires a high level of courage. (nov28)

Have a good week, folks – be safe!!

Thanks for continuing to support the website and if you’re bored and need a fantasy hockey fix – visit the gang in the forum here.