Welcome back to The Journey, where we follow hockey prospects and their paths to the NHL, providing Fantasy predictions and analysis along the way. This week, we'll continue our retrospective on the 2018 NHL entry draft providing updates on performance since the draft, future outlooks, and pick grades.

In case you missed it, check out Part One (picks #1-10) and Part Two (#11-20), which contain an explanation of Breakout Threshold (BT) as well as the terminology borrowed from Hockey Prospecting: Star Producer, Average Producer, Developing, and Bust.

This week, we'll kick things off by looking at the final ten picks of the 2018 draft's first round.

21st (SJ) – Ryan Merkley

1 pt in 6 GP

Verdict: Developing

Heading into this year, it looked like Merkley may have become a Bust. His once-high trade value hit rock bottom, he'd only scored 11 pts in 31 AHL GP the year before, and Sharks observers noted in training camp that the flipside of his lauded blue line creativity was repeated turnovers of “the egregious variety in that they led directly to odd-man rushes.”

Since then, Merkley had a six-game audition with the Sharks (one goal) before being sent back down to the AHL Barracudas. He currently has the same number of points as last year in half the games, an indication that he’s becoming more comfortable in the pros.

He’s still only 21 and will have to play several NHL seasons to reach his Breakout Threshold, but his blueprint seems pretty set by now: he’s a low-floor, high-ceiling type who could either score 70+ points or stay stapled to the bench in a coach’s doghouse—the kind of player that’s fun to gamble on but frustrating to own. Even if he ends up having a successful NHL career, Merkley will have much less fantasy value in multi-cat formats than points-only; his peripherals are paltry in the vein of Quinn Hughes. Comparables in terms of career progression include Michael Del Zotto (remember the hype when he scored 38 points as a rookie?) and Samuel Girard.

This kind of star potential (64%) doesn’t come around every day, and that D+3 data is from his shaky AHL rookie season last year. Players with this kind of profile rarely miss. But will Merkley become a Del Zotto or a Girard? This year will be critical.

22nd (NYR) – K’Andre Miller

15 pts in 73 GP

Verdict: Developing

On paper, Miller looks similar to Noah Dobson: a big, smooth-skating defenceman with a safe floor and decent upside. Except that Miller might be more dynamic than Dobson. Remember this goal?

K'Andre Miller goes end-to-end. What a goal. pic.twitter.com/Fff5jLR3nD

— Brady Trettenero (@BradyTrett) November 9, 2021

He’s having his ups and downs as a young defenceman in the world’s top hockey league, of course, but Rangers fans should be very excited about having Miller in their D core moving forward. He's very good with his stick, disrupting key passes and anticipating plays before they happen, and his IQ in general is one of his strongest assets. That means he can see patterns on the ice—where players on both teams are and/or should be—and use that information to his advantage. As the Player Usage chart below shows, he’s being somewhat sheltered but not overly so. And he’s driving play better than his most common partner, Jacob Trouba (the similarly sized orange bubble just above Miller’s).

He’s not putting points on the board yet, and his shot totals (fewer than one/game) are really low. But averaging almost 20 mins/night is a good sign, and he’s already approaching 1.5 hits and blocks/game. As a bigger player (6’4, 215 lbs), Miller qualifies for a 400 game BT, so you’ll have to be patient with him. It’ll be a while before he’s rosterable in fantasy.

23rd (ANA) – Isaac Lundestrom

26 pts in 93 GP

Verdict: Developing (looking like an Average Producer)

Lundestrom has run hot and cold this year so far, as is to be expected for an NHL rookie. After scoring ten points in his first 14 games, he went scoreless for six games, then potted four in his next five. Currently he only has one point in his last six games again, so he'll start scoring again soon if the pattern holds. The most important and exciting part for Ducks fans is that Lundestrom is already playing meaningful minutes on the pro roster—only eight players drafted in 2018 have more NHL GP.

Outside of deep leagues, however, fantasy owners will want to look elsewhere even if Lundestrom hits his 50+ ceiling as a 2C. He takes faceoffs but has work to do in that department (46% success rate), he doesn't hit or block much, and he's never really scored at or above a point-per-game pace at any level. Unlike many of his younger teammates, who lit up the AHL for at least one year before making the jump to the Ducks, Lundestrom's best pace with San Diego was about a half-point per game—basically the same scoring rate as he's putting up this year with Anaheim.

Don't expect him to suddenly have a big jump in production. Lundestrom should grow into a solid complementary piece but he'll never be a Star.

24th (MIN) – Filip Johansson

0 pts in 0 GP

Verdict: Developing (looking like a Bust)

Johansson has drawn some press recently for his decision to sign with SHL club Frolunda until 2024. The last time he was a talking point in the hockey world was 2018 when the Wild went off the board to select him at 24th.

Like Lundestrom, Johansson was seen even in his draft year as another one of these better-in-real-life-than-fantasy players; his production has never been anything approaching special, even in junior, because his value (in theory) lies in his play away from the puck. In his draft year, for instance, he scored one point in 23 Allsvenskan games, Sweden's second-tier league. No disrespect to the player, but Johansson should not have been a first-round pick and should not be on your fantasy squad. Even if he magically lights it up over the next couple years in Sweden, there are no indications that he has anything approaching Star potential or even supplementary potential as a category hog.

Johansson will battle it out over the next couple years with O'Brien (PHI, 19th) for the title of Biggest Bust of the 2018 1st round.

25th (STL) – Dominik Bokk

0 pts in 0 GP

Verdict: Developing (looking like an Average Producer)

Bokk, the main piece back for Carolina in the Justin Faulk trade last year, is looking like a solid complementary player—ie. don't invest too much in him for fantasy purposes. After scoring a decent 18 pts in 29 AHL GP last year with the Wolves as a rookie pro, he's only managed 7 pts in his first 18 GP so far. But he seems to be coming alive lately after a sluggish start to the season; he was buzzing around the ice when the Wolves played the Stars for Ben Bishop's final game, for instance, and gathered a nice assist on a wraparound play.

He's a decent playmaker too but Bokk is most known for his above-average shot. Here he is at last year's WJC absolutely blasting it top-shelf against the Czechs.

5 on 3 goal for @deb_teams by Dominik Bokk and it's 3-1 Germany! #WorldJuniors pic.twitter.com/1JiWBEts8X

— IIHF (@IIHFHockey) December 28, 2019

He also carries the puck well and shows elusive elements one-on-one. He's scored goals like this, where he beats a defender with a slick move, across several of the leagues he's played in recently—here he receives a pass up the middle in the offensive zone, walks around a defender, then roofs it on the backhand.

Well, @kia always donates $500 to @ff_chicago for each Dominik Bokk goal.

But this one might be worth more.

Is this something we can sell as an NFT? #IAvsCHI#WeAreTheWolves pic.twitter.com/NRQ9CEjML0

— Chicago Wolves (@Chicago_Wolves) May 2, 2021

Bokk owners will be hoping he can keep a hot hand down the stretch alongside AHL scoring leader Andrew Poturalski and work his way into the conversation for call-ups to the Hurricanes. Perhaps Carolina players entering Covid protocols will create an opportunity for him. Even though he has flashes of brilliance, Bokk has only a 2% Star potential at this point and seems to be slipping down the prospect ranks over the past two years instead of climbing.

26th (OTT) – Jacob Bernard-Docker

1 pt in 7 GP

Verdict: Developing

JBD is right in the thick of things for the Senators battling other top D prospects Erik Brannstrom and Lassi Thomson for playing time. His resume sparkles with gold medals at the 2020 World Juniors and 2021 World Championships with Team Canada and being named Defenceman of the Year for the NCHC division (NCAA) last year. He is focusing on playing more aggressively as he moves to higher levels, deciding when to pinch and join the rush. He walks the blue line well on the power play and many of his goals at the college level were quick, innocuous-looking wristers from distance that found their way through crowds to pick the top corner.

His longer-term role and offensive upside remain question marks; since his draft year he's been seen as having only a moderate scoring ceiling, and he faces a ton of young competition on Ottawa's blue line, at the top of which is elite young defenceman Thomas Chabot. He is beginning to see some time at the NHL level, though. His first call-up was a couple games in November (one assist); his second just happened in December, though he has only been attending practices and hasn't seen more game action yet.

In limited action with the Sens, he's shown good things on the offensive and defensive sides of the puck. In these two plays, he carries the puck smoothly into the opposing zone, then ties his man up to disrupt a prime scoring chance.

Folks, Jacob Bernard-Docker can play. #Sens pic.twitter.com/hMEEiJ0PeH

— Brandon Maki (@BrandonMaki_) May 10, 2021

JBD's career progression so far looks a lot like Neal Pionk's, and his Star potential has grown (1% → 7%) since his draft year. It's likely too early to stash JBD outside of deeper leagues, but follow his progression with the Sens closely over the next couple years. He may surprise and ascend the D rankings quickly even if his ceiling remains lower than many of his high-level peers.

27th (CHI) – Nicolas Beaudin

6 pts in 21 GP

Verdict: Developing (looking like a Bust or Average Producer)

All signs have been pointing down for Beaudin over the past couple years as he's transitioned to the pros. After a three-season, point-per-game QMJHL stint, he has produced 30 points across 87 AHL GP so far. These aren't bad numbers per se; the problem is that Beaudin, an offensive defenceman, seems to be regressing or at least plateauing. Here are his point-per-game numbers over his three AHL seasons: 0.25, 1.11 (only ten GP), 0.26. Assuming that brief spurt last year was the outlier, we haven't yet seen the kind of jump one would expect from a top prospect. The best case scenario at this point has Beaudin making the NHL and playing 200+ games (98% probable) and becoming a player like Dan Hamhuis or John Moore—players not known for their offensive contributions or fantasy value.

28th (NYR) – Nils Lundkvist

2 pts in 15 GP

Verdict: Developing (looking like a Star Producer)

Props to the Rangers scouting team for this pick because Lundkvist did not look like anything special in his draft and draft+1 seasons. He only had a 20% of having a sustained career in the NHL and was not projected to be a Star (1%). Since then, both probabilities have spiked and Lundkvist has become one of the more sought-after D prospects in fantasy (Star potential: 27%).

Ozolinsh and Seider are pretty damn good as historical comparables. Although he's now on the IR (undisclosed illness), Lundkvist has stuck with the Rangers this year and begun working his way into their regular rotation on their bottom pairing with Patrick Nemeth. He's being heavily sheltered and given prime offensive deployment at even strength, and though he's not doing amazing yet in terms of driving play, he's also not a black hole.

He's only seeing 25.5% of available power play time, though, and faces the same conundrum as Ty Smith in that he's playing behind Norris-winner Adam Fox and fellow top prospect K'Andre Miller, as well as all-situations man Jacob Trouba. That situation won't be changing any time soon as Fox and Trouba are signed long term and Miller will almost certainly be locked up after his ELC expires next year.

On the power play is where Lundkvist’s skill set shines brightest. He shows patience in this clip from his SHL days, freezing the goalie and passing the puck through the crease for a tap in instead of shooting himself.

Austin Farley med 1-0 för Luleå assist Nils Lundqvist och Jack Connolly #SHL #Twittpuck #PlayLikeANewYorker pic.twitter.com/ilPt9A3ZqF

— Joel Lander (@JoelLander1891) October 31, 2019

He already looks confident on NYR’s PP2 this season, calling for the puck and letting bombs go from the top of the circle. This is almost exactly how he scored his first NHL goal against the Avalanche, though with a wrister.

Nils Lundkvist looking confident on the second power play unit, calling for the puck #NYR pic.twitter.com/rOB3BjeGLm

— Shayna (@hayyyshayyy) December 5, 2021

Lundkvist is a defenceman who, at 19 and 20 years old, scored 63 pts in 97 SHL games—one of the top pro leagues in the world known for lower scoring especially amongst younger players. The Rangers will continue sheltering him and giving him opportunities to succeed. Perhaps you can wave a couple of these false red flags (low point totals, blue line roadblock) at a fellow manager and get them to sell low on Lundkvist. He's only going to gain value from here.

29th (TOR) – Rasmus Sandin

19 pts in 59 GP

Verdict: Developing (looking like a Star Producer)

Toronto picked a real gem at the end of the first round in Sandin. Picked 29th back in 2018, it's beginning to look like Sandin might now go in the top five in a hypothetical redraft. In a Ramblings at the end of November, Michael Clifford summed up Sandin's absolute defensive dominance this year:

Here's the visual data Clifford provided. Those towering dark blue bars on the left represent Sandin's Expected Goals (xGF) and Corsi For (CF) per 60 minutes. Literally off the charts. Read more about Corsi and Expected Goals if you're interested in digging deeper. The quick version is that CF measures how many more shots for than against a team is able to generate with a specific player on the ice; xGF considers the quality of those shots and is considered a more accurate metric of a player's offensive impact.

However, you slice it, Sandin is like a Dobson/Miller stat-stuffing minute-muncher blended with the dynamic scoring and skillset of a Hughes/Dahlin. He may only have eight points in 25 games on the year, and now he's landed on the IR after a highly publicized run-in with Jets defenceman Pionk, but Sandin is looking like a serious fantasy asset moving forward, even with Morgan Rielly alongside him long-term. Because of Sandin's performance in the big leagues so far this year, the Hockey Prospecting model now gives him a 63% chance of becoming a star—a massive jump from the 1% predicted in his draft year.

Sandin is currently the most sheltered player on the Leafs in terms of the quality of competition (QoC) faced; as we've seen above, he's doing extremely well in that role and should definitely be leaned on more in all situations. His relatively low offensive zone starts (54.4%) and lack of power play time (29.4%), combined with the fact that his shooting percentage is currently zero and his secondary assist rate is also low, all lend support to the idea that as his usage increases, so will his points. If he can maintain his elite defensive impacts while growing the offensive side of his game through increased exposure to Marner, Mathews, Nylander, Tavares, etc on the power play, watch out. Get your hands on Sandin stocks now before the last few managers out there realize how good he really is.

30th (DET) – Joe Veleno

4 pts in 14 GP

Verdict: Developing (looking like an Average Producer)

2018 was just not the strongest draft for high-octane forward talent; Veleno is another player in the same mold as Ty Dellandrea, Lundestrom, Liam Foudy, Rasmus Kupari, and even Barrett Hayton: talented, responsible players who seem like safe bets to secure middle-six roles with their teams over the next year or two but won't be hot commodities in fantasy.

Like Hayton, a definite positive for Veleno is his skill with face offs: his volume is fairly low still but he's won 51 draws so far with a 51.5% success rate—that's solid for any C but especially a rookie. Combine his prowess at the dot with his decent peripherals (1.6 shots/game and 1.7 hits/game) with his effective play-driving in a somewhat sheltered role so far this year and you have the makings of a valuable 2 or 3C. Veleno will probably have value as a streamer or depth piece in fantasy, especially as the young Wings improve, but you don't need to bother stashing him anywhere as he'll likely hover around replacement value.

31st (WAS) – Alexander Alexeyev

0 pts in 0 GP

Verdict: Developing

Although it looked like Alexeyev might make the Caps out of camp this year, he was instead sent back down to AHL Hershey where he currently has four points in 20 GP. Unlike Beaudin, however, Alexeyev's low minors production isn't as much a cause for concern because his value primarily lies outside of the scoresheet. He has shown in junior that he can put points on the board when called upon but he'll more likely become a Mike Matheson, Travis Dermott, or Trevor Daley type: a solid but never spectacular defenceman who occasionally goes on point-getting runs but generally scores in the 30s with decent peripherals.

Thanks for reading! Follow me on Twitter @beegare for more prospect content and fantasy hockey analysis.