Welcome back to Forum Buzz, where I peruse the DobberHockey Forums and weigh in on active, heavily debated, or otherwise relevant recent threads, reminding folks just how great a resource the Forums are. Nearly anything might be covered here, other than trades and signings, which usually get their own separate write-ups on the main site and are also normally covered in the next day’s Ramblings, or questions that are specific to salary cap issues, which is the domain of the weekly Capped column.To access the specific forum thread on which a question is based, click on the “Topic” for that question.

Topic #1– In a Keep 12, Points only, Cap ($94M), 11 team, 10F, 4D, 1G + 5 bench, weekly lineup, 2 FA/year league, a GM is looking to move Sam Reinhart, Teuvo Teravainen and/or Travis Konecny, and is aware that the owner of Mathew Barzal is open to trading him as part of a two for one deal. Is Barzal worth obtaining and, if so, which two of the three would make the most sense to trade for him?

First off, let's look at salaries, which will be key as it's $94M for 20 players, meaning an average of $4.7M per player. Not the most generous cap number I've seen, but certainly far from the worst. The contract details for each player are: Barzal ($7M, ending 2022-23), Reinhart ($6.5M, 2023-24), Konecny ($5.5M, 2024-25), and Teravainen ($5.4M, 2023-24). If this team acquires Barzal, they'd get the player who's not only most expensive now, but also has the shortest time left on his deal. The good news is Barry Trotz's deal also ends after 2022-23, if he lasts that long; so although Barzal will cost even more starting in 2023-24, he'd only be 26, meaning right in his prime and by then possibly playing for a coach who'll take less of a steadfast defense-first mentality.

That all having been said, giving up two lesser costing players to get Barzal is a somewhat tough pill to swallow, especially if Trotz stays coach until his deal ends, as that would mean Barzal will likely continue to produce below his full potential. If, however, this is a deal that the GM does want to make notwithstanding all these factors, then which one would be the best to keep?

All three come with caveats but also upside. In the case of Konecny and TT, they're on pace for a second straight season to lag behind what they did in 2019-20 and, in TT's case, also 2018-19. As for Reinhart, he's more expensive; and when everyone in Florida was healthy, he was seeing time on the third line and not on PP1. I like Konecny's youth, coupled with the Flyers needing to rely on him more and more in view of their aging core. It's also key that his current deal would be the last to expire of the four. Teravainen just doesn't seem to be the same player he was those two standout seasons, plus, at age 27, he's not likely to get better. Reinhart's versatility is a disadvantage in that, as we've seen, it allows the stacked Panthers to put him on the third line to have a more balanced offense. 

I would offer TT and Reinhart for Barzal, if a trade is to be made. Would I make the deal? Probably. We know from his time in juniors and his rookie season that Barzal is superbly talented; plus, once Trotz is gone, Barzal will likely feel as if he's been paroled and he could explode for 85+ points perennially. You want to own him once that happens, so I'm inclined to make this deal even though the cap implications won't be an easy pill to swallow.

Topic #2– In a one-year H2H, 12 team, 5 FA pick-ups per week, unlimited trades league where goalie categories are Wins, SV% and Shutouts and two goalie start per week, a GM has Connor Hellebuyck, Robin Lehner, and Cam Talbot, making him the only one with three unquestioned #1 goalies, as most other teams have at most two and some have only one. He wants to trade one for badly needed skater help but is unsure which makes the most sense. Who should be traded?

This is a toughie, as Hellebuyck has by far the most name value; but he's having a subpar year, and if we know one thing about Hellebuyck, he seems to be very good or not very good, with not much room in between. Lehner plays for a team that's very strong and figures to get even better with the addition of Jack Eichel in early 2022, although Lehner's play has been uneven at best. Still, he's been able to avoid injury so far, which has been his main issue. Talbot was not nearly as highly regarded as the others, yet he's quietly putting up a solid season. His issue is his contract size, and up-and-coming netminder Kaapo Kahkonen is in the picture, making Talbot's grip on the #1 spot less secure than the other two.

The safe answer is you put all three on the block and let people come to you with offers. When in doubt that's the way to go – let others shape deals for you, which you can then assess and decide how to proceed. The risk of doing this, however, is GMs are smart enough to know they're being pitted against each other, so the offers might not be a good. Plus, although it was noted that some teams only have one bona fide starter, in a league where two start per week and SV% counts rather than SVs, high volume starters, while always nice, don't have quite as much value.

If the decision is to try to just put one goalie out there for trade, I'd have to say it should be Lehner. He's the only one below 50% in quality starts and has the lowest SV% of the three; yet he still should be held in high regard due to the team he plays for. Let's not forget in Yahoo leagues he was the second goalie taken on average, so people will attribute value to him even though he's thus far been disappointing.

Topic #3– In a one-year league where goals are worth two points and assists worth one, how would these players be ranked: Conor Garland, Michael Bunting, Alex Killorn, Victor Olofsson, Adrian Kempe, Yanni Gourde? 

Garland is intriguing due to Vancouver hitting the reset button. Early results suggest the team being more inclined to roll with three lines that get roughly similar ice times, and two balanced PP units. While that likely ensures Garland won't be on the outside looking in, it might result in all Canucks forwards having good but not great production.

Bunting has been the line lottery winner thus far in Toronto, but the stats he has to show for it are just okay. Poolies often forget that being on a line with elite players may mean a lot of goals are scored while you're on the ice; but if you don't have the nose for scoring like the others do then you won't see a boost in production. Bunting also barely sees any man advantage time.

Killorn always seems to step up while Nikita Kucherov is out. The good news is we saw before Kucherov was injured that Killorn was on PP1. That, plus a likely secured spot in the top six should help keep him productive even after Kucherov is back in the coming weeks. Or should it? This is someone who, despite playing for the high-octane Lightning, has only once had a season where he produced in the 50s.

Olofsson is producing well because he's among the best of a rag-tag bunch of Sabre forwards. He excels on the PP, with a spot on PP1 locked up. There are no real threats to someone taking away his spot, at least not this season, but he has lagged of late, which is concerning.

With Kempe, the good news is his production is skewed toward goals and he seems to be joined at the hip with Anze Kopitar, who continues to defy father time. Kempe also sees a fair share of time on the PP and shoots the puck a good amount.

Gourde is showing that with more responsibility he can produce. However, he's on what's essentially the checking line for the Kraken, although like the revamped Canucks they're a team which likes to have a balanced approach for forward ice time. Without having a ticket to PP1, Gourde's production might have a lower ceiling.

Tops on my list of the six would be Killorn due to his team and spot, followed by Garland who should fare well even if not getting heaps of ice time. Next is Kempe due to the goals bonus, followed closely by Olofsson, who is among the best the ragtag Sabres. Then it's Gourde due to him being used on what's essentially the third line for Seattle, and being stuck on PP2. Bunting is last of the bunch because he hasn't thrived as yet playing with the best of the best on Toronto and could find himself off a top line, in which case his scoring might go into free-fall.

Topic #4– In a league with skater categories of G, A, +/-, PIM, PPP, SOG, HIT, BLK, how would these players rank for rest of season production, also taking somewhat into account if they would be good keepers (keep ten of 18 players): Nick Suzuki, Brock Boeser, Travis Konecny, Lucas Raymond, Mikael Granlund?

At the top of the list I've got Suzuki. I spelled out my reasons for being bullish on him in one of my recent Goldipucks columns; however, it boils down to Suzuki being so dialed into his team's offense that once the Habs awaken Suzuki should explode. Plus, his peripherals are superb for a league like this. He's the cream of the crop all things considered.

Next comes Raymond, who earns this spot due to his solid play but also him being a potential keeper. I keep saying though that some are overlooking that Jakub Vrana will eventually return and both play the same position, creating a situation where one will be off the top line. While it seems like Raymond's play has earned him that spot, his numbers have tailed off a bit lately and he might be hitting a mini rookie wall. Plus, the Wings paid a steep price for Vrana, who dazzled during his brief time with them last season. Still, at worst Raymond will drop to the second line but should stay on PP1, which keeps him second overall among these five.

Boeser is third. He stats from his first five NHL seasons – this including his brief rookie stint in 2016-17 – are superb. How superb? The last four players who, like Boeser, averaged 0.4+ goals per game and 2.9+ SOG per game in their first five seasons by age 23 were Auston Matthews, Connor McDavid, David Pastrnak, and Steven Stamkos. He's ignited since the shake-up, although as noted above if Vancouver employs a balanced approach, where the likes of Boeser no longer get heaps of PP1 time or ES TOI, then gaudy numbers might be tough to achieve, at least for the rest of this season.

Granlund comes in fourth. He looks revitalized, and what's promising is this is after he signed a UFA deal. Even still, he's a player who at his peak didn't top 71 points, plus no Nashville forward has scored even 65 points in a season since 2008-09. Granted, the forward crop seems to be better this year; however, it might not last, especially given that most who are doing well are past their prime, Granlund included. He had his sun run, but I think he'll cool off now.

Bringing up the rear is Konecny, who I covered in the same Goldipucks piece as Suzuki. I realize I praised him above, but his issue is he was saddled with huge expectations after a great season. Based on his metrics he seems like a player who can't carry a weak line and if put on a line with top tier players he disappears. He's better than what we're seeing from him now, and has nice peripherals, but he's not as good as any of the rest of these options for the rest of 2021-22.

Topic #5– In a 12 team H2H keeper, 4C, 4LW, 4RW, 6D, 1G, with skater categories of G(3), A(3), BLK(0.4), HIT-(0.2), PIM (0.25) Hat Tricks (10), PPG(3), PPA(2), SHG(3), SHA(2), SOG(0.2), who is the better own Adam Fox or Cale Makar?

Either one should be rightfully coveted in any keeper regardless of the categories, as they seem to be primed for huge success for the next decade or even longer. Let's see which one is the better of the two.

First off, the categories don't really favor one over the other, except perhaps giving Fox a slight edge. Makar is more goal-centric and has a higher SOG rate, but goals don't count extra, except for slightly with respect to PPGs. Fox is a good bit better in the banger areas, with PIM and BLK totals considerably higher than those of Makar. Of the two, Fox also sees more PK time, giving him a better shot at SHG/SHA.

Another thing to consider is the teams they're on. Colorado has a great team now, but also are built for the future, with their stars younger than those on the Rangers, plus Alex Newhook on tap to step in for Nazem Kadri, who's likely pricing himself out of returning once he's a UFA this summer. On the other hand though, Makar has the likes of Samuel Girard, Bowen Byram and Devon Toews to cannibalize points, whereas Fox has K'Andre Miller and Nils Lundkvist, so in that area Fox would seemingly hold an advantage.

That advantage could be wider than expected, as if we go back to 1990-91 there have been a total of nine instances of teams where four defensemen on the same team had 35+ points in the same season, with it not happening since 2009. Only once out of those nine instances did a defenseman on the team score even 60 points. So that means is Makar is entering uncharted territory, or, more likely, one of the other three Avs d-men gets moved, making it less of a blue line logjam and, in turn, less of a barrier to Makar continuing to shine as he's been thus far.

How, then, do we decide between them? Looking under the hood a bit more, Fox's metrics are more suspect. The reality is although Fox's SOG rate of 1.93 per game is by no means bad, it's just not high enough to be in keeping with his scoring, as from 1990-91 through 2020-21, there were 85 instances of defensemen who averaged 0.85+ points per game in 40+ games, with a mere three – one of them being Fox last season – not averaging more SOG than he is thus far for 2021-22. In comparison, Makar's rate of 2.78 would put him 57st on the list, which is still not superb high, but at least isn't literally bringing up the rear. One other differentiator is secondary assist percentage, with Fox's being 54.8% last season and 53.8% this season, while Makar's last season was a mere 38.9% and for 2021-22 to date is 46.2%.

For the fantasy hockey equivalent of trying to decide which supermodel to date, Makar holds a slight edge due to his higher shooting rate and lower secondary assist percentage. Again, both should shine for years to come.

Topic #6– In 15 Team, keep 5 (keepers reset after 5 years), Roto League with scoring categories of G/A/P/+-/PIM/PPP/SHP/SOG;W/L/GAA/SV%/SHO/GS and rosters of 2C, 2LW, 2RW, 3D, 2U, plus 3 Bench, with a max of 130 games for each position, except 195 for defensemen, it is year 4 of the 5 year keeper cycle, meaning after next season everything resets. A GM's likely keepers would be Nathan MacKinnon, Jake Guentzel, Jonathan Huberdeau, Victor Hedman and Elvis Merzlikins, but the GM is out of it this year and has already moved Darcy Kuemper for a first round pick, and has an offer of Trevor Zegras, Mason Raymond, John Gibson and another GM's first, second, and third round picks for MacKinnon. Should the GM make the trade?

Assuming this deal is even still available given Gibson's injury, this is a hard no. For one, keepers are resetting after 2022-23, so getting Zegras and Raymond wouldn't provide an impactful benefit, as neither one Is likely to peak for several more seasons. In fact, would they even make the cut as keepers? If not, why make the trade in view of the impending reset? As importantly, in a league where keepers comprise more than a third of one's roster and 75 players are kept, it is imperative to keep the best players, as draft picks will only get you less effective guys, as drafting "projects" is not a strategy to take with a reset coming so soon.

Moreover, if one has MacKinnon and Hedman as keepers, one has a top-five player at forward and on defense. To me that means that the team is viable to win next season even if its three other keepers might be a step down, which, frankly, Guentzel and Huberdeau aren't, as both are easily top-50 players, which is very solid in a league where 75 are kept.

To reiterate, Mac should not be traded. Instead, the team should keep those four plus Kirill Kaprizov, who it also owns. That should set up the team to do well for the final season before the reset. If there is a concern about not keeping a goalie, I'd move Huberdeau or Guentzel, plus the acquired pick if need be, for a strong netminder rather than not keeping Kaprizov, who I figure will be better than both by next season. Or the team could opt to keep Jacob Markstrom, who it also owns as well, and trade either Guentzel or Huberdeau for picks, which, although I did say was an ideal strategy, is definitely better than losing a player for nothing.

Topic #7– In 12 team, keep three (one forward, one defenseman, one goalie) with rosters of 6F, 3D, and 1G, a team's best defensemen is Zach Werenski and wants to try and upgrade to ensure a better keeper for next season, and has Nikita Kucherov, Jonathan Huberdeau, Kyle Connor, and Sidney Crosby as its best forwards to dangle in trade. Who should the GM try to acquire and who is the best forward to trade?

First off, this is a very shallow league both in terms of keepers (12F, 12D, 12G) and total players rostered (120). With so few keepers, but with those keepers comprising 30% of one's roster, GMs will need to ensure they have a top tier guy at each position. I'd agree that Werenski would not be one of the 12 best defensemen to retain, which, in turn, suggests at minimum one other team will have more than one defenseman who is worth retaining.

Here's the problem, aside from Kucherov, none of these forwards would be ones who a GM likely would keep. Don't get me wrong – the other three listed are top 50 fantasy players in this league, which counts G,A,PTS,PPP,SOG,HIT,PIM; but that's a far cry from being a top 12 forward. The goal would be to convince another GM to trade a likely keeper while getting, in return, a player they won't keep? Talk about a tough sell…..

Still, GMs also don't like to lose something for nothing, which is what will happen to those who have a surplus of top defensemen unless they trade one away. The problem is they need the contributions of those d-men during the season to try and win. Yes, I realize this would mean trading them a forward who'd likely be an upgrade for now; however, that's a lot different than getting a defenseman who'd be an upgrade for now plusa retention for next season.

My take is this is something to wait to do until a team with too many strong d-men is out of the hunt for the win this season. This can't wait until the offseason, because by then the only trades that will occur will be ones where retainable guys are exchanged, unless somehow draft picks can be traded, in which case that would be an option. I realize by making an in-season trade that would mean competing in the trade market against teams who might be in the same boat; but to try and make that trade right now would be difficult, or would cost Kucherov, who must be retained. If there's a desire to make a trade now though, try and move Connor, who's doing extremely well despite Winnipeg's poor play earlier this month and whose stats are unlikely to be sustainable given his higher than usual IPPs. Otherwise, I'd see how things unfold before making a deal in the latter part of the season or, if draft picks can be moved, in the offseason.

Topic #8– In a full keeper where 4C, 4LW, 4RW, 6D, 2Sk, 2G start daily, a GM is frustrated with the play of Anthony Beauvillier and is wondering whether to cut bait to grab a free agent, with Adrian Kempe being the likely target? Should the GM ride it out with Beauvillier?

No question Beauvillier is a frustrating player to own. He teases with elite play only to not be able to build upon that. In 2019-20 he had a stretch of 12 points in ten games, only to also have a run of one point in 12 games immediately before that, and then three points in 14 games immediately after it. It was a similar story in 2020-21, as he finished strong with 13 points in his final 11 games, plus had nine points in as many games during the season, yet also ran ice cold at times again, with two points in nine games and also two in 11. There was hope given his strong finish to last season, plus his upped SOG rate, but so far 2020-21 has been a disaster and that was even before he was made a healthy scratch earlier this month, although in fairness to him his regular center Brock Nelson has been out, so that's not helping his cause.

What's also an issue is at no point in any of those seasons, nor 2021-22, has Beauviller taken the ice for even 50% of his team's PP minutes. He's also not making the most of the little PP time he's receiving, with IPPs on the PP of 57.1% last season and 46.7% in 2019-20, but a lower figure so far for 2021-22. On top of that, his IPPs overall have ranged from 55 to 65%, which is good but not great, meaning he doesn't have a strong nose for scoring.

Another problem is those blocking his path to better minutes are all signed as long as he is. But relief could be on the way, whether due to Barry Trotz being fired, or, even if Trotz isn't fired, his deal ends after next season, bringing in a new coach for 2023-24, which just so happens to be the season Beauvillier will be playing for a 2024 UFA deal.

In deep league with a lot of keepers and a sizeable bench, I think he's a guy to hold onto, as he can be plugged in when he's hot, since when he's hot it usually lasts a while. Similarly, when he's cold he can be stapled to the bench. All or nothing production is better than guys who are okay but you never know when to cycle them in or out of the line-up, which is the category in which I'd put Kempe and players like him.

Topic #9– In a 12 team points-only dynasty, Kailer Yamamoto was dropped. Is he an upgrade over, for example, Jack Roslovic?

Yamamoto ignited at the end of 2019-20, finishing with nearly point per game output. But last season saw his scoring rate drop, and he's on pace to do even worse this season, sitting well below even point per every other game production. This despite playing 60% of his ES shifts with Leon Draisaitl this season, and still skating with him and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins recently. The issue is one has to wonder how long the Oilers will bestow upon him a precious top six spot, as they've occasionally put Zach Kassian there plus have Warren Foegele, and Yamamoto, despite his early success, looks to be an albatross on that line. And it's also notable that even when he was succeeding, he didn't receive any PP1 time, and probably isn't even next in line for that as the expectation would be that Jesse Puljujarvi would see time on PP1 before him. This all having been said, it is true that Yamamoto is only 23, was a former first round pick, plus, as a smaller player, likely will hit his breakout threshold closer to 400 games rather than 200. Still, that could mean another three plus seasons, which is a long time to wait.

Is Roslovic a better keep though? His ice time and scoring rate are both down considerably, and this despite the Blue Jackets lacking talent down the middle and Roslovic having played well last season. He's also two years older than Yamamoto and should be at his breakout threshold now, so the fact he's not producing is somewhat troublesome.

I would label both of them as "projects" at this point. Still, Edmonton seems to be willing to give Yamamoto a long leash in the top six, and at some point he's likely to connect the dots, plus has already done so once in the past, whereas Roslovic had a good but not superb season in 2020-21 but now is playing much worse, and is older. If it was me I'd take a chance on Yamamoto and hope he figures things out much like Pool Party has done this season. Sure – there's a risk that Roslovic will do well; however, Columbus might instead continue to look to Boone Jenner and Max Domi as its top centers, or could even opt for an upgrade via trade or free agency, leaving Roslovic at risk of staying outside of the top six picture.

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