Given the (now extended) break this week there isn't really a need to touch on streaking players or deployment changes so we are going to take this opportunity and look at how things have changed over the year to date. Last week we reviewed big deployment changes, but this week it is all about production – and the resulting changes in ranks players have seen.

This week on Frozen Tool Forensics: 2021's Big Winners

To get this review started we are going to be looking at average draft position data (ADP) from Yahoo. This will give us an idea of where players were ranked by managers going into the season. Since we don't have draft data from this week we are going to compare that ranking to Dobber's Top 100 Roto Ranking. This ranking gives a nice spread of categories, but as the title implies really only touches on the top 100 players. In actuality it allows us to review more as many players currently in the top 100 were not on draft day and vise-versa.

Diving right into the process here, I have exported ADP from the fall in a sheet and when I export the Roto report I can combine that rank with the roto rank for an easy comparison.

Quick note on how the ADP is represented: I have it sorted into rank, not average draft position. That means Connor McDavid is represented by a one, not a 1.1 because he was on average the first player drafted even though his average draft position was 1.1. Cale Makar had an actual ADP of 13.3, but that is the 12th highest rank so he is actually represented here by 12 not 13.3.

First up let's look at those players ranked almost exactly how they were drafted.

Whatever you think of Jones' actual on ice play, the stat count is speaking for itself at the moment and rewarding anyone who drafted him reasonably high. Even with a current four game cold streak he is on a career high point pace, with career high average time on ice, and power-play time. He is also on pace for his second highest shot, hit, and block count seasons ever so is helping in those areas as well. Nothing seems to be too far off with his underlying numbers (maybe a bit high, but not much) so just enjoy his production.

Moving on to our disappointments. We don't have full rankings for everyone drafted, but we can look at the highest drafted players who are not currently ranked at all.

It is not entirely surprising to see Dallas well represented here. They had a pretty atrocious start with so many of their players having ice-cold runs at the beginning of the season. That has turned around to a large extent after Jason Robertson returned. Roope Hintz in particular has been dynamic, putting up 21 points in his last 17 games (101 point full season pace). His slow start means he is still only at a 67 point pace on the season though.

Cole Caulfield, Jakob Chychrun, and Blake Wheeler have gotten a lot of attention (here and other places) so let's check in on Ryan O'Reilly.

O'Reilly is currently on pace for 55 points, or his lowest output since 2014-15. He has nine points in his last 11 so all hope is certainly not lost, but this clearly isn't the season his managers were hoping for as he has averaged a 75 point pace over his last three seasons. His shot rate is about the same as in recent seasons, and he is getting about the same power-play deployment. He is down about a minute of overall time on ice, but the real culprits seem to be his own personal shooting percentage (7.9 percent – the second lowest of his career) and his secondary assist rate (the lowest of his career) – which looks to be particularly impacting his point participation on the power-play (PPIPP) that sits at 36.4 percent, almost half of his career numbers. These things are all way too low and should bounce back. Additionally his expected goal per 60 numbers have increased from last season, meaning while he is on the ice the team should be scoring more frequently than in 20-21. All of this means that if you can buy O'Reilly as a 60 point player you definitely should. It looks like some positive regression could be on the way.

And now onto the good news! Here are players who have jumped the highest and pushed their way into the top 100

Joel Eriksson-Ek is seeing the most time on ice of his career and by far the most power-play time. He is shooting three shots per game for the first time in his career, getting top power-play deployment, and sometimes skating with Kirill Kaprizov (though lately it has been Kevin Fiala and Marcus Foligno). His 55 point pace is about right-ish, though maybe a touch high. Nothing too exciting, but this is what 18.5 minutes a night and top power-play can do for an at best 40 point player otherwise.

What else can be said about Drake Batherson? He is playing over 19 minutes a night, getting over three minutes a night on the power-play, shooting just shy of three shots per game. Everything we want to see in a player's deployment. Oh and he has 28 points in 23 games – a 100 point pace. That pace might be a bit rich as a number of his underlying stats are running a bit hot, but point per game Batherson certainly seems possible for the 23 year old. Anyone who drafted him as the 233rd player off the board is absolutely laughing right now.

Timo Meier finally seems to be having the season promised to us. The sky seemed to be the limit after that 2018-19 season only for him to follow up with 57 and 47 pace seasons. He is currently seeing career high total and power-play ice time, and shooting more than four shots per game (plus adding hits and some blocks if that is your thing). He has 14 points in his last 12 games, and 29 in 25 on the season (a 95 point pace). Sure maybe 95 is a little high, but not that much given his underlying numbers. This looks like the legitimate breakout we were promised several years ago so enjoy the ride if you have him. 

Again a lot has been said about Nazem Kadri, but I just wanted to highlight that the man has put up 34 points in his last 18 games. That is McDavid like production from the 177th ranked player on draft day. There are red flags all over the place here, though to be honest not as dramatically as I was expecting. He has actually had other seasons with similar underlying numbers (like in 2012-13)… but paced for 70 points in those seasons. The main difference here is way more time on ice and top power-play deployment. So yes his current pace is unsustainable – but his deployment has also been quite different this season (partially due to injuries, partially him keeping those roles). I think this is a wait and see – do we have another Brad Marchand situation where a player in their 30s finally has the tether removed or will he be put back to a second tier 16 minute agitator again once the dust settles.

That is all for this week

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