The Journey: Petrov, Kidney, Johnston (High PNHLe)

Ben Gehrels

2022-01-08

Welcome back to The Journey, where we follow hockey prospects and their paths to the NHL, providing fantasy predictions and analysis along the way. This week, we'll return to Mason Black's (@NHLRankKing on Twitter) Rank King app to select three under-the-radar prospects with high PNHLe—players who many dynasty owners haven't heard of who are likely still available to stash on your farm team. Who are they? Is their success this year sustainable? How soon might they translate their production to the NHL? The Journey has you covered.

Here's a breakdown on PNHLe, how it's different from NHLe, and why it's useful for fantasy.

Matvei Petrov (LW, EDM)

His last name might not be Michkov, but Petrov is still pretty damn good. With 20 goals and 33 assists over 32 games, Petrov is second in both the OHL and overall CHL scoring race at the time of writing—two points behind teammate Brandon Coe (SJS). That places him 10th in the Rank King app, which includes all junior-level prospects. Petrov is one of several goal-scoring Oilers prospects who are performing well in junior and looking to make the NHL over the next few years: Xavier Bourgault, Raphael Lavoie, Carter Savoie, and Dylan Holloway.

The first thing that stands out about Petrov is his shot: it's hard and accurate, and it usually comes off his stick quickly—he's able to release the puck before goalies can fully process that he's begun to shoot. That requires excellent timing and spatial awareness to react quickly and understand exactly where he is in relation to the net.

Here's an example:

The range and power of his wrist shot is also impressive. Watch here how he unleashes an absolute bullet while skating backwards that goes top-shelf through traffic:

He doesn't just sit around waiting for one-timers and blast the puck towards the net all day long, which is a red flag raised here previously about Carter Savoie. Here he displays that poise and patience that sets natural goal-scorers apart, waiting until the goalie and defenders are down and out of position before letting his shot go:

Another thing to note about Petrov is that, unlike some players with incredible shots, he's also a talented playmaker who won't ever qualify for hockey's informal Cy Young award. Here's a glimpse of his chemistry with Coe: Petrov carries the puck into the offensive zone, spots his unattended teammate on the opposite side, and threads it through a seam that opens up between the two defenders and the backchecking forwards. Coe receives the puck in a high-danger area and buries it:

Petrov's future and upside remain an evolving question but this year is an excellent testament to his potential as a future top-six NHL forward. He has a fairly low star potential (9%) and his MHL production in his draft year wasn't anything special (42 points in 58 games) but if Petrov can replicate his OHL success next year and then transition smoothly to the pros, Edmonton will have snagged an incredible gem last year in the 6th round.

Riley Kidney (C, MON)

Kidney is a talented playmaker selected by the Canadiens in the 2021 second round. He hung around the top 50 on Rank King last year and is sitting 29th again this year with 41 points in 29 QMJHL games—a total that leads his team by 11 points. Although he isn't yet a well-known prospect and fell out of the first round last year, he led all QMJHL players in even-strength scoring in his draft year, including higher-profile first rounders like Xavier Bourgault, Zac Bolduc, and Zachary L'Heureux.

Scouting reports last year raved about Kidney's elite stickhandling and comfort level in traffic. Watching game footage from this year, it's easy to see those skills in action. Here he receives a pass, splits the defenders, freezes the goalie, then quickly passes the puck to a streaking teammate:

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In this clip, he again shows a high degree of comfort when pressured by multiple players. He's the second player to touch the puck; he receives a drop pass, pivots and extends his stick to get around a defender, then makes a short pass to an open teammate in the slot who sends it home.

Riley clearly has an advanced understanding of how to effectively distribute the puck into high-danger areas while drawing defenders towards himself. Not to compare him to the greatest player to ever lace them up, but those skills are reminiscent of how Brendan Shanahan described Wayne Gretzky in relation to Mario Lemieux in Jack Han's book, Hockey Tactics 2020:

Kidney (5-11, 168 lbs) may not even end up as a top-line NHL player, though his ceiling is certainly in the top six, but with his average skating, smaller frame, and elite hockey IQ, he is definitely more of a Gretzky type than a Lemieux.

Looking ahead to the rest of this year, it's noteworthy that Kidney's QMJHL team recently pulled off a major trade to land the league's current scoring leader, Felix Lafrance (undrafted). With Capitals prospect Hendrix Lapierre also back in the fold after a short NHL stint, Kidney looks to be in line for even gaudier point totals down the stretch. Keep an eye on him and stash him in deeper dynasties while you can.

Wyatt Johnston (C, DAL)

Johnston was one of the players impacted by the season-long OHL shutdown. After an okay rookie year, his only chance to play last year was at the U-18 World Juniors (4 points in 7 games). The Stars took a swing on him at the end of the first round last year because they saw him as a physical, tenacious, hardworking player with some upside. He didn't have eye-popping numbers in any minor league before the OHL, so he was a bit of a swing in the first round.

This year, the Stars are looking smart for taking him a round ahead of where he was generally ranked: Johnston has 46 points in only 27 games for the Windsor Spitfires so far, leading his next-closest teammate by almost 20 points. This is a team with three other NHL prospects, including Will Cuyle (NYR), but Johnston is clearly their heart, soul, and engine. He won the OHL Player of the Month for elevating his play into the two points-per-game range over eight games, including a six-point game, so if anything, he's heating up.

At this point, Johnston is reminiscent of recent picks Anton Lundell and Dawson Mercer—players who were underestimated in draft boards for being more two-way than premier offensive talents.

Here are some of his goals from December—lots of one-timers, tips, and snipes through screens:

Looking at historical comparables in terms of career trajectory, Johnston has essentially doubled his star potential and likelihood of becoming an established NHLer. In the Hockey Prospecting model, he now compares to players like Mike Fisher and Stars captain Jamie Benn.

If Johnston can continue playing at the level he has discovered this year, he'll likely move up the AHL next year and start receiving call-ups to the Stars as early as 2022-23. He'll fit in nicely with a young core that includes players like Jason Robertson, Miro Heiskanen, Roope Hintz, Ty Dellandrea, and Thomas Harley.

Thanks for reading! Follow me on Twitter @beegare for more prospect content and fantasy hockey analysis.

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