Ramblings: Meier Tops Hertl’s Four-Goal Mark; Bennett and Kucherov; Parayko Returns – January 18

Michael Clifford

2022-01-18

While going through some data since the calendar turned to 2022, I noticed that Sam Bennett's ice time has been on a slide. He has 15:12 per game over his last four games, but it would be hard to blame someone for missing that, buried underneath his six goals and eight points in those four contests. The production is great, and as someone who was very high on Bennett before the season, it's nice to see this come around. At the same time, any centre skating 15 minutes a night is concerning, regardless of the quality of his team.

The big issue is where he lost those minutes. Losing two minutes of short-handed time wouldn't hurt much, and players can sustain losing a couple minutes of even-strength ice time. However, Bennett lost his top PP slotting, and losing 2-3 minutes a night of top PP time on that team is a big loss in value.

It's tough to say what to do here. He could be put back on the top power-play unit basically any game now and it wouldn't be out of place. He also could stay on the second unit for the balance of the regular season. We should also note he hasn’t been a huge PP producer this year, so it’s a question how much value he actually lost. Losing 2-3 minutes per game from the power play isn’t great, but it will also hurt peripherals like hits and shots, and those things are what separate him from other 60- or 70-point centres.

As it is, Bennett owners have a decision to make. He is on a hit streak and fantasy owners may be buying into a turnaround here. It's a question of what the return is. In all likelihood, just hanging onto him and seeing where this can go is probably the right idea.

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While I was looking through shot rates for Bennett, I noticed that Nikita Kucherov is in the top-10 by shot rate since his return earlier this month. He has at least three shots on goal in each game so far, managing 23 shots in the five contests. That might be a bit high for a per-game mark, but it was just a few years ago that Kucherov managed 3.5 shots per game over the course of a season. That would be a nice tick up from what he's done his last couple regular seasons, and a boost to the fantasy profile of an already-elite winger.

Looking ahead to Tampa's near-term schedule, it's a trip to California followed by home games against New Jersey, Vegas, and San Jose after that. Not really a brutal lineup of games for the next couple weeks, so if he can keep shooting like this, he could be on fire heading into the Artist Formerly Known As The Olympic Break. It really is nice to see him return and look healthy. It seems like forever since we've been able to regularly enjoy some regular-season brilliance from the former Hart Trophy winner.

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The 2022 Dobber Midseason Guide is available for sale now in the Dobber Shop! It has a little bit of everything to help season-long teams, like projections, trade targets, depth charts, and more. There are also updates about franchise depth and prospects, so people looking to get a head start on next season have a great place to begin.

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Ian brought up Trevor Moore yesterday in his Ramblings, and I want to expand on that a bit more. Ian is bang on about the significant improvement in his situation, but I want to talk about the player.

Looking at some of the player-level data such as shot-assists, shot rate, and zone entries, not a lot stands out. He has improved in most regards compared to last year, but the entire team has. It is hard to say if there's been improvement from him, or just a better team is giving everyone a little bit more shine.

About the same could be said about his line mates. Moore is getting a lot of shots off from dangerous areas, but is that because he's getting to dangerous areas, or Moore's line mates of Phillip Danault and Viktor Arvidsson being excellent regardless of who skates with them?

We should note that he's playing well regardless of which line he's been on this year, so this was a deserved promotion. And that the instant chemistry he's shown with Danault and Arvidsson is more important than deciphering if he's in the 50th percentile of NHLers or 40th percentile. They're playing well, he's getting ice time, and that's basically all that really matters.

I do find it interesting how well Danault/Arvidsson have played all year and that Moore may have made some genuine adjustments. We need more games before seeing anything definitive, but the Kings seem to have two very good scoring lines now.  

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Years ago, Tomas Hertl had four goals in a home game against the New York Rangers. Yesterday afternoon, Hertl's line mate Timo Meier did one better with a five-goal game. Not a typo: five goals on six shots for Meier, while Hertl had four assists. Rudolfs Balcers had the lone non-Meier tally. It was the first five-goal game in nearly two years (Mika Zibanejad) and just the fifth this century (per Hockey Reference).

That is now officially Meier's fourth 20-goal season in five years, falling short last year in the shortened season.

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For as much as the fantasy community, present company included, has been clamouring for an Andrei Svechnikov breakout, there don't seem to be a lot of people victory lapping this one. He is on pace for over 30 goals, over 70 points, nearly 150 hits, and over 250 shots. That is a monster fantasy season but again, surprisingly little in the way of celebrating. Everyone waiting to see how the second half goes?

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Colton Parayko returned to the lineup for St. Louis, which should tamp down Justin Faulk‘s ice time, which was over 23:30 per game spanning his last three games. Faulk is a guy whose peripherals can make him very valuable when he goes on a points streak, and he’s still getting power-play time, so anyone needing a bit of help on the back end might want to look here.

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With Jason Robertson injured for Dallas, Jacob Peterson jumped to the top line with Roope Hintz. While he could be moved off that line at any moment, it's worth noting he's now skating with the team's top offensive players, though the downgrade from Robertson will hurt his line mates as much as this helps Peterson.

Denis Gurianov was activated from the COVID list and was back on the second line for the Stars.

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We had a rather slow afternoon affair between Buffalo and Detroit. It is hard to blame the players or the fans, given the area was being hit with a blizzard at the time and just getting to the arena was a challenge.

That was, until midway through the third period. At the 11-minute mark it was a 2-0 Buffalo lead, and we ended up 2-2 in overtime. Dylan Larkin scored a pair of goals, including the game-tying and game-winning tallies. A monster game from him, and he now sits with 18 goals on the year. That puts him one off his mark of 19 in 2019-20, in half the games played.

Jeff Skinner had a goal and an assist in the loss, totalling six shots on goal, in what was a very good game from him. The problem was he still just skated 15:39 as his line mates were closer to 19 and 20 minutes in TOI. While it's certainly nice to see Skinner back on the top line for the Sabres, and fantasy owners will take that, we would also like to see more than 15-16 minutes a night.

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It appeared Darcy Kuemper took a hit to the head from Jordan Greenway during the second period of Colorado's game Monday afternoon, and left the contest. He was officially in concussion protocols and we'll give an update when one becomes available.

Pavel Françouz came in and held down the net for the Avs in the 4-3 shootout win and would be the full-time starter should Kuemper miss any substantial time. He is probably owned in fantasy leagues given who he plays for but those in shallower leagues may want to check just in case.

Krill Kaprizov had a pair of goals in the loss while Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen had a goal and an assist each in the win. MacKinnon added six shots, a block, a couple penalty minutes, and a couple hits for good measure. It was a monster fantasy afternoon for him.

With the Minnesota defence still looking a little thin, Matt Dumba was over 25 minutes again with an assists, plus-2 rating, two shots, three blocks, and three hits. His peripherals are going to stay very strong as long as his ice time stays where it is.

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Nick Schmaltz had a goal and two assists in Arizona's 5-2 win over Montreal on Monday. It snaps a brutal skid for Schmatlz, who had just one point (an assist) in seven games since Christmas. Clayton Keller had a goal and an assist, as did Johan Larsson, in the win.

For Keller, he's up to 3.5 shots per game over his last 20 games. That is quite the jump for him, and it would be nice if he can keep it up for the next 40 or so.

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