Welcome back to Forum Buzz, where I peruse the DobberHockey Forums and weigh in on active, heavily debated, or otherwise relevant recent threads, reminding folks just how great a resource the Forums are. Nearly anything might be covered here, other than trades and signings, which usually get their own separate write-ups on the main site and are also normally covered in the next day’s Ramblings, or questions that are specific to salary cap issues, which is the domain of the weekly Capped column. To access the specific forum thread on which a question is based, click on the “Topic” for that question.

Topic #1 – In a 10 team H2H keep 4 (at least 1 of which must be a defenseman or a goalie), with daily line-ups of 2C, 2L, 2R, 1U, 3D, 2G, 6 Bench, 3 IR and categories of G, A, +/-, PPP, PIM, HITS, BS, GWG, SOG, W, S, SV%, GAA (Min. 4 starts), as of now a team, whose projected keepers are Connor McDavid, Jack Eichel, Connor Hellebuyck, and Nikita Kucherov, is thinking of trading Eichel plus Erik Karlsson for Roman Josi to better compete this season but intends not to keep Josi, but instead either J.T Miller or Jake Guentzel. Does the deal make sense? If so, who should the team's keepers be?

First off, I can get behind not keeping Josi. Yes, he's looked superb this season; however, he's yet to string together two straight seasons of superb production. There's also the reality that only three defensemen start, which is half the number of forwards, or even less assuming the utility spot goes to a forward. With fewer than 50 keepers in a multi-cat, I think that the list of keepable d-men consists of Cale Makar, Adam Fox, Quinn Hughes, Victor Hedman, and maybe John Carlson, with the list for goalies even shorter, namely Hellebuyck and Andrei Vasilevskiy plus perhaps, based on how he's looked and his age, Igor Shesterkin.

The issue I have with trading Eichel, however, is why now? Or to put it another way, if a team has stuck with Eichel for this long, how does it wait until he's possibly poised to return and then trade him? With the possibility that Vegas would "Kucherov" Eichel (i.e., hold him out until the playoffs to avoid cap entanglements) looking less likely by the day, and more so that his return will occur within the envisioned timeline, trading him would result in missing his stats now but also not getting to keep him next season and beyond. Make no mistake, he's a better keeper than Josi, Guentzel or Miller based not only on skill but also age. After all, this was a player who until last season had seen his scoring increase every year despite playing for the hapless Sabres. Playing in Vegas with actual talent could result in him exploding. From where I sit, you don't want to miss out on that, even if it means not getting great numbers Josi may provide over the rest of this season, as Josi wouldn't be kept, making him a pure rental. I would stick with Eichel and play the long game. Entering next season with a keeper core of, McDavid, Kucherov, Eichel, and Hellebuyck should make this a team to beat, presuming it has an even halfway decent draft, more so than if Eichel was swapped out for Josi, Guentzel, or Miller.

Topic #2 – In a points-only, 14 team, daily keeper with line-ups of 3C, 3LW, 3RW, 5D, 2SKT, 1G, plus 4 Bench spots, who is the better own – Jake Guentzel or Trevor Zegras?

While's he's not a franchise-type ala Jack Eichel, Guentzel is a proven entity who had only four points in seven games prior to the return of Sidney Crosby, meaning he's since scored at a 110 point rate. And let's also not forget he's been able to produce these gaudy numbers despite, until this past week, the normally potent Pittsburgh PP missing the presence of Evgeni Malkin, such that it stands to reason Guentzel could be doing even better.

Zegras is living up to his hype, and perhaps even exceeding expectations. Despite Ryan Getzlaf still being in the picture, Zegras is thriving. While Pittsburgh is an aging team where the fear is players like Crosby and – assuming they don't leave as UFAs after this season – Malkin and Kris Letang will start to decline sooner rather than later, perhaps steeply.

Still, the key for Guentzel is Crosby, who last season became just the second player in NHL history to begin his career with 16 straight point per game seasons. The only other to do so was the Great One himself, Wayne Gretzky, who, incidentally, had three more seasons where he scored at a 90+ point rate, suggesting Crosby still could have enough gas left in his tank to where he and Guentzel can continue to form a formidable one-two punch for at least several seasons for the Penguins. Let's not forget that if somehow things go awry in Pittsburgh in the near future, Guentzel could leave as a UFA after the 2023-24 season, when he'd still be under 30 and likely be put into a new situation where he could succeed at or close to the level he was when paired with Crosby.

Guentzel definitely is the bird in the hand here. If it wasn't Crosby to whom he was stapled, and he didn't have an out in 2024 if the Pens crash and burn, then I'd have concern as to whether he might be able to remain elite. But the way things look, Guentzel likely will be a 90-95+ point guy for the near term. Can Zegras reach that level, or even exceed it? Anything is possible; and of all young NHLers, his future is seemingly among the brightest. Still, unless a team is looking solely longer term (i.e., more than three years out), the choice has to be Guentzel.

Topic #3 – In a 12 team, keep 9, league where defensemen even strength points are worth 1.2 and their PPPts are worth 1.75, while forward even strength points and PPPts are worth, respectively, 1 and 1.5, a GM of a rebuilding team with young defensemen Adam Boqvist, Erik Brannstrom, Scott Perunovich, Brandt Clarke, Ryan Merkley, Calen Addison, and Luke Hughes, was offered Jamie Drysdale for Jordan Kyrou and Boqvist. Does the trade make sense?

Readers of my column know that I believe what we're seeing from Kyrou is an extended streak of unsustainably scorching play. Yes, this is someone who had IPPs last season of 82.1% at ES and 75.0% on the PP. For 2021-22, however, they're currently sitting at 85.7.1% and 100%, so although he's not in uncharted territory at ES, he is on the PP.

If Kyrou's IPPs were just what they were last season, then instead of 37 points in 34 games, he'd have only 32. Not a huge difference, but enough to drop him out of top tier territory. That having been said, he's unquestionably showing he has significant talent and a nose for scoring. Plus, he's making his mark on a team with a surplus of great forwards but who might be losing David Perron (UFA) and/or Vladimir Tarasenko (trade) by the start of next season, making it so Kyrou's role would expand. Although we can't put too much stock into what we're seeing from him now, he's shown enough to suggest he's a 70-75+ point player, with even higher upside if he gets a spot on PP1 and even more ES ice time.

As for Boqvist, by going to Columbus he lost his shot of being a top defenseman for Chicago, but it's not clear if he was even ready for that. In Columbus he can be brought along slowly and stay sheltered, while Zach Werenski shoulders the pressure. So far the results for Boqvist as a Blue Jacket have been encouraging, and he still has a very high ceiling, if not perhaps quite as high as it might've been had be stayed in Chicago.

Drysdale is widely considered one of if not the top defenseman prospects in the entire NHL, with expectations that are sky high, especially on a Ducks team that has a solid young core around which it's building, including the aforementioned Zegras. That having been said, at his current paces, he'll have played over 80 games in parts of two seasons as a teen while averaging under 0.4 points per game and 1.75 SOG per game. The defensemen who met all those criteria, dating back to 1990-91, were Jakob Chychrun, Rostislav Klesla, Kyle McLaren, Oleg Tverdovsky, and Aki Berg. Of those, only Tverdovsky ever scored 50 points, doing so three times and topping out at 55, although of course Chychrun is still active and has shown promise. It's far from certain, despite his pedigree and sky-high expectations, that Drysdale will amount to what many think he will, at least based on his output as a teen thus far as well as past comarables.

For sure having to include Boqvist makes it too steep of a price to pay to get Drysdale. Plus, this team already has a lot of prospect defensemen who could also pan out as well as Drysdale or perhaps even better. As such, it's not like there is a "need" for Drysdale either, making it so Drysdale just for Kyrou straight up goes from iffy at best to just plain not worthwhile.

Topic #4 – In a 12 team keep 15 salary cap (AAV) league with scoring of G (2), A (1), BLK (0.33), W (2), OTL (1), SO (4) and rosters of 12F, 6D, 2G, plus 6 players in the minors and where every player is automatically kept if he's played fewer than 82 NHL games, David Pastrnak has been put on the trade block. If this team is to be able to acquire him, it'd almost assuredly cost him Lucas Raymond (or perhaps Ilya Sorokin) plus a first round, top three pick in 2022. The GM is worried that price is too steep, especially since Pasta has only on year left on his deal and this GM already will need to absorb the big salary increases that are coming due for Alex DeBrincat and Nathan MacKinnon at the same time.

This is a dilemma, not only in view of the cap crunch but also out of concern as to how, until recently, Pasta had played since he came back from injury last season. Lurking beneath his less than point per game overall production is the fact he's been on fire lately when, as it so happens, he was separated from Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand. If he stays on the "second line" and still plays well, that will go a long way toward showing he wasn't being carried. Also, here's some food for thought – Pasta had 200 goals by age 24, and the last ten players who also had 200+ goals by that age were Auston Matthews, Steven Stamkos, Sidney Crosby, Alex Ovechkin, Ilya Kovalchuk, Eric Lindros, Jaromir Jagr, Pierre Turgeon, Joe Sakic and Jeremy Roenick. Amazing names for sure; but most peaked by age 25. Looking at those who had the most sustained top-notch success, they were guys like Jagr, Crosby, and Sakic, who were players responsible for creating offense as opposed to being goal-scoring types like Pasta.

As for Raymond, he seems like a costly price to pay; but who's to say the heights to which he might ascend? For one, Jakub Vrana will be returning next month and plays the same position as Raymond, who, after a red hot start, has cooled, as he started his career with 21 points and 48 SOG in his first 22 games, but since then has only recorded nine points and 27 SOG in his last 16 contests. Sorokin does seem like he has the makings of a very good if not great goalie, so I'd try not to have to part with him. As for trading a draft pick in this league, with 180 players kept most picks likely will be newly drafted players; and although a top three pick is tantalizing, the 2022 draft is not shaping up to be as great as 2023, so the pick might not be a steep price to have to pay as an add on.

Let's suppose we've already seen the best there is from Pasta. Based on those comparisons, he still should have very good years in the future, as even the least productive of the ten still had several point per game seasons after peaking. Also, Raymond is not guaranteed to be as good as Pasta already is and should continue to be, and the draft pick is not difficult to part with all things considered. The question is mainly the cap issues it would create, as not only does this team have Mac and DeBrincat set to get big raises, but also Johnny Gaudreau, a UFA this offseason. The team also has Sidney Crosby, who might not outperform Pasta in the coming years, especially given the goals bonus, and is quite expensive. If this deal is to be made, I'd say go ahead and make it for Raymond and the pick, planning to trade Crosby to free the cap space for the new deals Gaudreau, Pasta, Mac, and DeBrincat will be signing, or to deal Gaudreau, who's playing great but might be doing so as part of a UFA push.

Topic #5 – In a 12 team, keep 14 regular players plus 4 rookies (<164 games played) league with goalie categories of Wins (2), Overtime/Shootout Losses (1), Shutouts (3), Saves (0.1), Goals Against (-0.5) and where up to three goalies can be in the active line-up at once and daily moves are allowed, but a team has a 164 maximum games played from all its goalies, a rebuilding team has Ilya Sorokin, Jake Oettinger, Cal Petersen, and Yaroslav Askarov as its goalies. It wants to keep only three, so who should be the odd man out?

What's noteworthy is all four qualify as "rookie" keepers, although as noted in the forum thread the team has skater talent such that it wants to keep at most one goalie as a rookie, with the other three being Dylan Cozens, Kaapo Kakko, and Seth Jarvis. Also noted later in the thread, the GM will be keeping Brandt Clarke and Alexis Lafreniere as a non-rookies despite being rookie eligible. If it was me, I might consider one of the goalies as a rookie over Cozens, but I'll answer the question as posed.

I'm definitely keeping Sorokin. Yes, he's is in a time share right now and Barry Trotz seems to want to play his goalies in that manner no matter how well or poorly one or both are playing. But Trotz's contract is over after 2022-23 and it's unlikely he'll be back, plus Semyon Varlamov's deal ends after that season too and might be traded beforehand, paving the way for the crease to be Sorokin's by no later than 2023-24. Sorokin is exactly what a rebuilding team wants.

Much the same would essentially apply with Oettinger, as although the Dallas net was very crowded, now Ben Bishop is retired, plus Braden Holtby is signed only for this season and Anton Khudobin seems be have fallen out of favor and even if he reenters the picture he's signed only through 2023-24 as well. I'd expect the starting gig to be Oettinger's as soon as 2022-23, or, failing that, by no later than after next season when Khudobin's deal is done.

When this team is looking to compete again, it'll have two still young but likely very good #1 goalies – in Sorokin and Oettinger – locked up. With Sorokin and Oettinger in the fold, I think one or both of Petersen and Askarov can be put on the trade block. Surely there must be another team who's rebuilding and would covet Askarov? Although Petersen hasn't taken the next step as many thought he would, he still has to be looked upon as the goalie of the future for LA, a team on the rise. Maybe put both of them on the trade block and see what they can fetch?

If neither nets a good return, then perhaps the solution is to let both go? Otherwise, with the likely ascension of Sorokin and Oettinger within the next two seasons, then I suppose the longer term but home run potential of Askarov should probably get the nod over Petersen.

Topic #6 – In a league which counts G (2), A (1), +/- (0.5), and PIM (0.2), which surprise stand out should do the best between now and the end of the season, and perhaps even be keepable: Ryan Hartman, Evan Rodrigues, or Ivan Barbashev?

For sure it's not Barbashev. Yes, he's found great chemistry playing alongside Robert Thomas and Vladimir Tarasenko at ES; however, it's not clear how "safe" his spot is there. Of course if he continues to produce well he should be able to hold it down, but this is someone who'd yet to even come close to averaging a point per every other game in a season, and, at age 26, is a little old to be breaking out. Not only that, his SH% is sky high and he sits tied for 49th in forward PP scoring even though his PP minutes per game rank him only 208th. I do think Barbashev has played well enough to have a good chance of sticking in the top nine; yet banking on him being more than a 50 or so point forward is a long shot.

Rodrigues is even older at 28, and was never drafted. Like Barbashev, his scoring explosion has come from nowhere, although he did once produce point per every other game output for the Sabres back in 2017-18. The Pens are a top-heavy team, unlike the Blues – that is, the Blues are stacked at forward, with arguably the best top nine in the league. The Pens, on the other hand, have, when healthy, Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Bryan Rust, and Jake Guentzel. The good news is that means there should be a spot for Rodrigues in the top six. The bad news is that's four top forwards who'll be on PP1, leaving Rodrigues relegated to PP2, with the likes of Jason Zucker, Kasperi Kapanen and Jeff Cater. Quite a step down I'd say. It's also consequential, as when Rodrigues was recently scorching with 11 points in six games, five of those points came on the PP. Could Rodrigues be the second coming of Rust? I suppose, although Rust had somewhat better numbers before breaking out and is locked into a top six and PP1 spot. Although I see Rodrigues keeping his spot in the top six, he's not likely to be part of PP1, which should result in him scoring at roughly a 60 point rate.

Hartman, let's not forget, is a former first round pick. Like the others though, he hadn't shown signs of what he's done this season. The key for Hartman is two words: Kirill Kaprizov, who's arguably on his way to becoming a top five NHLer. Kaprizov has found chemistry with Hartman after going through a range of centers. Yes, Marco Rossi is now in the picture; however, it looks like the plan is to slot him with Kevin Fiala to have solid two lines. The key with Hartman though is he is locked into PP1. His deployment is great as ES and on the PP. Plus, I see him sticking with Kaprizov, as not only do they have chemistry but Hartman plays a physical game that serves to protect Minnesota's franchise player. That also leads to him averaging close to one PIM per game, whereas Rodrigues has zero PIM and Barbashev is closer to one PIM per every other game. Hartman also chips in well with goals, leading to him being on a par with Rodrigues in that area. Am I saying that Hartman is the most talented of these three? Not necessarily; but if he isn't he's close and his deployment is – and should remain – the best. On top of all that, he's better suited for the league categories, making him my pick.

Topic #7 – A ten team league is switching to keeper format where five players (3F, 2D or 3F, 1G, 1D) are signed to contracts, one of which is for 3 years, two of which are for 2 years, and two of which are for one year. Players under consideration as keepers are Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar, Igor Sheskterkin, Artemi Panarin, Steven Stamkos, John Carlson, Andrei Svechnikov and J.T. Miller. Categories are G, A, PPP, SOG, HITS, BLKS, W, SAVES, SV%. Who should be signed to which deals?

It's unfortunate the team can't keep 2F, 1G and 2D, as I think it's best options are Mackinnon, Panarin, Makar, Carlson and Shesterkin. Mac or Makar would get three years, the other – plus Shesterkin – would get two, and Panarin and Carlson would get one each.

For sure in a ten-team league Carlson is keepable. Stamkos probably is too, and maybe Miller, although less certain. Clearly though Carlson can't be kept over Makar, so option #1 is to not keep Shesterkin and go with Makar and Carlson. I could get behind that, as at most ten goalies will be kept, leaving plenty to go around. Still though, I can see the lure of keeping Shesterkin, who looks poised to climb into the truly elite netminder echelon.

If indeed Shesterkin is kept, then at some point before the end of the season some combination of Svech, Stamkos, Miller and Carlson should be traded for one upgraded forward. The problem is unless the team wants to keep Shesterkin for only one season, this upgraded forward would get only a one year deal. Still, it's likely better than losing Carlson for nothing and should net the team a player better than Stamkos, Miller or Svechnikov. Players to consider would be Mikko Rantanen, for Colorado stacking, Brad Marchand, or perhaps Aleksander Barkov. It might even be possible to get Alex Ovechkin, to have on a one-year deal in case he finally starts to slow.

If the team doesn't make any trades, however, I'd probably opt for Svechnikov, as Stamkos likely has done better this season due to being the featured forward, and now that Nikita Kucherov is back Stamkos gets downgraded to the second line with Anthony Cirelli and Alex Killorn. Stamkos will still be on the potent Tampa PP1; however, the stat stuffing of Svechnikov probably gives the GM more value than Stamkos, even if Stamkos outpoints him by a decent margin.

In the thread the GM said they intended to give MacKinnon the three-year contract. If it was me though, I'd give it to Makar, who I believe is already more elite versus other defensemen than Mac is versus other forwards. Need proof? Makar is on track to become just the sixth rearguard in NHL history to log two point per game seasons by age 23, with the average number of points per game seasons by the others at age 24+ onward being four. Although Mac is a top tier NHL forward, he's three years older than Makar and could even be due to see his totals shrink by the time a three-year deal is expiring. I'd say Makar gets three years, Mac and Shesterkin two, Panarin one, and the traded for forward gets one as well.

Topic #8 – In a 20 team cap league with 19 active, 6 reserves, 33 minors and starting line-ups of 3C, 3LW, 3RW, 2SKT, 6D, 1G and skater categories of G, A, +/-, SOG, PPPts, SHP, HIT, BLK, FO% (0.5), FOW (0.5) a team owns Sean Monahan and wonders if he's droppable at this point.

The line of frustrated Monahan owners is long, and growing by the day. This was a center who had 25+ goals and 30+ assists five times by age 25, but who's been on a downward spiral for what is now entering a third straight season. Let's go back to what he did, and how similar players fared. From 2000-01 onward, a total of five other centers met those same goals and assists thresholds at least five times by age 25: Sidney Crosby, Leon Draisaitl, Anze Kopitar, Connor McDavid, and Tyler Seguin. Of the five, none fell on as hard times at as early an age as Monahan has. Does this mean Monahan can become rejuvenated? Not necessarily; however, it is at least somewhat encouraging for him to have this in common with players who were able to stay productive until 30 (Seguin) and even beyond (Crosby, Kopitar).

Also, lost amid Monahan's poor output is the fact his overall IPP is better than either of his two most recent disappointing seasons, and his PP IPP a career high. Although less offense is being generated when he's on the ice, he's still at least finding a way to factor into a high percentage of the goals that are being scored. He's also receiving a decent amount of PP time, if not on PP1 then on a PP2 that's not only decent by NHL standards but also gets a fair amount of ice time.

Barring a major renaissance, however, it seems less likely by the day that he'll be a Flame after his deal ends next season. But is that a bad thing? He's clearly fallen out of favor in Calgary, yet he'll be under 30 if/when he goes to a new team for a fresh start. Moreover, as a UFA to be, I wouldn't be surprised to see him up his effort level and – with that – his output next season so as to secure a deal that still pays him decently.

Here are the ways this could play out – (1) Monahan somehow becomes revitalized before his deal ends, (2) Monahan continues to struggle in comparison to past results, but then goes to a new team and fares better, (3) Monahan fails to rebound as a Flame and then doesn't regain his scoring touch after he signs elsewhere in 2023, or (4) something in between (2) and (3). If I had to put odds on each of these actually happening, Id say 25% for #1, 30% for #2, 20% for #3 and 25% for #4. The worst-case scenario in a cap league would be he plays well next season, raising his price in the process, then plays lousy after inking a new contract. Even then at least he's upped his output for a season, which is better than nothing and might make him movable.

Given his age and past results – plus the comparisons they trigger – I think the way to go is to grin and bear it with Monahan at least until 2024, which will be the first season under his new deal. If he can't cut it by then, at age 30 and likely on a new team with a fresh start, then that would be the time to consider cutting bait, although if he's on a cheap enough deal he might not need to produce huge numbers to justify his price tag. It will be interesting to see this unfold, that's for sure.

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