Ramblings: New NHL Schedule; Ehlers Update: Tippett’s Season; Blues Lineup – January 20

Michael Clifford

2022-01-20

The NHL released a revised schedule on Wednesday, updating all 32 teams' future, given all the postponements in the past. Some teams were more influenced than others but every team has some significant schedule movement to discuss.

There will be a lot more on this in the near-future here at Dobber. Our 'Looking Ahead' column, for starters, will be vital for readers to peruse on Fridays. (Or even more vital than before, let's say.) There will also be updates to the schedule planner tool over among our Frozen Tools. We will have all these updates covered, do not worry, fantasy hockey fans.

I did want to take a bit of time to just review some things that jumped out at me as I looked at some revisions. Whether it's back-to-backs or a compressed schedule or what have you, these are a few changes that caught my eye. All taken from the NHL's official press release here.

For starters, the Sens and the Islanders have the most changes. As for Ottawa, they have a really compressed schedule following the All-Star break: nine games in 14 days from February 7th through February 20th. As for the Islanders, they're a little bit more spread out, as nearly half their rescheduled games (6/13) come in March or April.

The Oilers have a similarly compressed schedule with eight games in 13 days spanning February 8th through the 20th. Among those eight games are three sets of back-to-backs, which could put a strain on their goaltending depth. Actually, that could just put a strain on the whole team in general because if a couple of those B2Bs don't go their way, they could fall behind in the playoff race quickly.  

Carolina also has a compressed schedule but not as bad as the other two teams with eight games in 14 days during that faux-Olympic break.

February looks packed now. Starting February 8th, there are now at least four games each day until February 28th. That means lots of heavier-than-usual Monday-Wednesday-Friday-Sunday slates, and that's going to make season long fantasy hockey exciting for the next six weeks. There are going to be more viable players every week than normal, and players will really have to look ahead on individual schedules to figure the best waiver adds they can make. Fantasy owners will have to put on their best dancing shoes to survive into fantasy playoffs in March.

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This doesn't have a lot to do with fantasy directly, but kind of. It's just talking about standings placements. There are teams that go on hot streaks and always give some hope that they could get to the postseason. The reality is that most teams that are out of the playoffs now are so far out that it'll take a miracle to get in. Case in point: the Detroit Red Wings. They are five points behind Boston with four more games played. The Wings are on pace for 84 points, the Bruins for 105. Similarly, the Pittsburgh Penguins are pacing for roughly the same as the Bruins. So, Detroit probably needs to break 100 points to have a shot at the final Wild Card spot, meaning they need 59 points in 42 games. Or, put in other terms, for the team closest to the final Wild Card playoff position to get in, they need to go something like 27-9-6. Teams like Philadelphia and New Jersey? Even further. The Islanders are in a better position by points percentage, but they'd still need something like 70 points over their final 50 games.

What I did notice is that it looks like it's going to be an either/or for Calgary and Winnipeg in the postseason. Both teams are sitting with 35 games played, both within four points of San Jose, who have 40 games played. Assuming Minnesota doesn't fall off the map, the Flames and Jets could be fighting for the final playoff spot in the West all the way to the final game of the season.

Anyway, most playoff teams are just jockeying for positioning now. I do find it funny that there are four teams firmly in a chase for the last playoff spot and they're all Canadian teams. At least something for the fanbases to cheer for, temporarily.

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An update on Nikolaj Ehlers:

That's not good short-term news. Hopefully we get better long-term news.

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I saw that Noah Gregor had a seven-shot game the other day and looking at his game log, there's more here? Since the calendar turned 2022, he has 26 shots in eight games, and two of those games carried a zero. In total, he's near the top of the league in shot rate per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 this month, and he has been skating a bit less than he was earlier in the year. Still, though, he's over 16 minutes a night and shooting more. This is a guy who has generally had a good fantasy profile – generally strong shot rates, for one – so if he can really start firing the puck, the upside is obvious. The problem, as I see it, is he's shooting 1.4% on the season and even, say, 9% shooting would have him on pace for 20 goals. Could he be in line for a big second half? Bigger, is perhaps the better word here.

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The St. Louis Blues have their entire forward roster healthy for what feels like the first time since 2019. That is probably hyperbolic but that's the way it honestly feels. Nearly two years since this pandemic started and the Blues have not been able to stay healthy at any point… until now? We shall see.

Regardless, the lineup is interesting:

Looking at this, it seems obvious the Ryan O'Reilly line is going to be leaned on for most of the defensive tasks, with the Vladimir Tarasenko line getting some secondary defensive duties. It leaves that line and the third line free to mostly attack the depth from opponents.

What is interesting here is Ivan Barbashev as the 2C. The duo on the second line had often been Tarasenko/Thomas when healthy, but it appears they want to lengthen the lineup and give themselves a legitimate third scoring line. Putting Thomas/Kyrou down there accomplishes that.

Things will change but this lineup looks very good. Can the veterans hold it together? We're going to find out.

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Remember a few years ago when the Florida Panthers had a prospect pool that teams were jealous of? Tippett, Knight, Denisenko, Heponiemi, and Borgstrom, among others, were the names to know. Three of those look like non-NHLers (whether in Florida or elsewhere) while the jury is still out on Spencer Knight as a young goalie.

Owen Tippett, though, has stuck around. It is worth nothing that while a lot of other top Florida prospects have completely fallen by the wayside, he's been a fixture of their middle-6 this year. He isn't playing a huge role, skating third-line minutes with some secondary PP time. But this is a true Cup contender and for him to have a consistent third-line role on a team this good means he has to be doing something right. Some of his play-driving metrics are strong over the last couple years and he turns 23 years old next month. He is just going to start hitting his prime next year, so could another step be in order? He has 29 points in his last 78 games playing just 12 minutes a night. It would be nice to see him around 15-16 consistently to see if he can take that next step.

Also, Anton Lundell looks like he could be a reason why Tippett himself has looked so good this season. That guy could be this team's 2C by next year.

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While I'm thinking about prospects, I made it a point to watch as much as I could of Matthew Boldy in his tenure with the Wild so far and he is impressive. To me, he looks like a guy that knows what he needs to do once they get in the offensive zone, whether he has the puck or not. He knows how to open lanes and appears to have a good shot. We are always on the lookout for players who have the brains to match the skill and in the two games I've seen from him so far, he has both.

This is a kid that is listed at 6'2" and will turn 21 years old before playoffs start. It is very possible the Wild just straight added a second-line winger to the mix, if he can keep up this play. Either way, a very notable start to his career.

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In Jakob Chychrun's return to the lineup, the Coyotes beat the Devils 4-1 on Wednesday night. Karel Vejmelka saved 35 of 36 to stand tall in this one while Lawson Crouse scored the game-winner in the second period, adding an assist for good measure.

Chychrun had a good fantasy night, meanwhile. One assist, plus-1, two shots, two blocks, and a hit. Not bad for his first game in over a month.

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