Frozen Tool Forensics: Week 16 – Three Up and Three Down

Chris Kane

2022-01-21

On Wednesday of this week the NHL dumped all of their schedule information for the Olympic break. By this point that probably isn't news, and it also probably isn't news that some of the fantasy platforms have yet to (and maybe won't?) update their schedules. Yes, we are talking about that now infamous Fantasy Week 16. The potentially month-long endeavor where at least on Yahoo move restrictions etc. will all remain the same. Now that may all change over the coming days, but if we play this out for a moment, where does that leave managers? Given the propensity for injuries, illness, and postponements, it is hard to advise using any of your moves during that month for anything other than replacing lost players. If you happen to have spare moves in the meantime though it might be worth taking a look at the schedule and seeing the changes impact your team.

To figure out which players might be worth a look it is important to know a little bit about the schedule. There are some huge discrepancies for the month-long matchup. Luckily Frozen Tools has you covered with their Schedule Planner tool. If you navigate to the Research drop down, it is the first item. The Schedule Planner is an excellent tool (I use it basically every day) and it has quite a few report options. If you use Today's Games, it not only tells you who is playing that day, but who the starting goalie is, and the record of each team's opponent. All very helpful information for streaming in a goalie. You can also pull up the remaining fantasy week, the next fantasy week, custom reports, and yes now a Week 16 report.

There are some big discrepancies between teams. On the high end we have Edmonton (13), Ottawa (13), Toronto (12), and Winnipeg (12). On the low end we have Tampa Bay (6), New York Rangers (7), and L.A. (7). Given that I wanted to take a moment and highlight a few players who are either very low owned, but might be worth considering in some of your deeper leagues, or some highly owned players whose star might be falling anyway so might be worth moving prior to this long matchup. Even if we end up with a few more matchups during this time period the game counts will still remain the same so some of the same concerns/highlights will still apply.

I am going to start by seconding some of the work I did last week and again highlight Alex Kerfoot and Michael Bunting. Both play for Toronto so have 12 games upcoming in week 16, plus these are guys you should probably have been considering owning anyway.

Kerfoot (26% rostered on Yahoo) skated with John Tavares and William Nylander in Toronto's last game (1/19). He has a 58-point pace on the season, but 10 points in his last seven games. He started the season averaging less than 15 minutes a night, but is now up over 17. Some of that has been with absences to the top six (Mitch Marner et. al), but even with a healthy lineup he is still getting the top six deployment. His shot rate isn't fantastic (11 shots over those seven games), and he isn't getting power-play time, but with the extra games he might be worth a shot during the long matchup.

Bunting (25 percent rostered) is playing with Marner and Auston Matthews in the last game (1/19), and has been a top-six fixture all season. He is getting second power-play deployment and averaging a little bit less than 17 minutes a night over his recent games. He has points in five straight, though a slightly lower 53-point pace on the season, but is averaging two shots per game, a bit of an improvement from Kerfoot.

Switching teams a bit, we are going to go for a deep cut here and take a look at Alex Formenton. At only 1 percent rostered, he is certainly available and with a good schedule and his recent production he might be worth the swing. Formenton only has a 40-point pace on the season, but has eight points in his last nine games, which happens to coincide with a nice improvement in his deployment and his time on ice. He has been averaging over 16 minutes a night recently, up from 13 and a half to start the season. As of 1/18 he was on a second line with Tim Stutzle and either Nick Paul or Drake Batherson (it looks like the lines changed up a bit during the game). Not much power-play time to speak of, but has 21 shots over his last seven games.

This next section was a bit harder as I sorted through rostered numbers, there weren't a lot of highly-rostered players that I would consider dropping for help in a single week, that wouldn't potentially hurt in the long term. I have a few names for consideration though.

Ivan Provorov is currently 70 percent rostered. His 32-point pace is certainly not exciting and neither is his six points in his last 16 games. His hit and shot rates are down, and Cam York seems to have the power-play one job for the moment. Plus Ryan Ellis is going to return at some point (hopefully for his managers). Coming up to Week 16 he has eight games, and while he is helping a bit in blocks, he really isn't doing much else for his managers so now might be a good time to consider replacements.

Tanner Jeannot is 53 percent rostered on Yahoo, mostly on the back of a really nice goal run and some impressive hitting. He is playing on what looks like a third line, though has gotten some good even strength time on ice recently, but no power-play time. He has one point in his last four games (as of 1/20) and only 10 shots over his last eight games. If you are rostering solely for hits, sure keep him on, but with only eight games in this upcoming Week 16, and the goals having dried up, that is essentially all you are going to get.

In slightly shallower leagues here are another two to consider. They might not be straight drops depending on the depth of your league, but some potential sell high candidates whose schedule might hurt a bit in the coming weeks.

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Reilly Smith is currently reasonably highly rostered at 57 percent, and for good reason. He is on a 59-point pace, shooting well, seeing almost 18 minutes a night of ice time, and getting second power-play deployment. He was also featured last week on a line that could be in line for slightly better luck. So what gives? Smith's year-long production has been buoyed by some significant deployment that might not be exactly sustainable. While he hasn't really been shuffled around the lineup, his line has been seeing increased minutes when Mark Stone and Max Pacioretty have been out, plus some increased time on the power-play. Stone has returned (and then left, and then returned again, and now in COVID protocol), but Pacioretty and Jack Eichel are waiting in the wings to return and it remains to be seen what the lineup will look like with them, both at even strength and on the power-play. This seems like it might be a high-water mark for Smith, plus he only plays seven times during week 16.

Also consider your shares in Anthony Cirelli (41 percent rostered). His 55-point pace is fine, and it is great to get to lineup with Steven Stamkos, but his shot rate is low, he has never exceeded a 55-point pace and only plays six times over the extended week.

That is all for this week. Do your part to support organizations working to make hockey for everyone.

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