Ramblings – Bratt, Arvidsson, Tarasenko, Matheson, Rodrigues, Wheeler and more (Jan 24)
Dobber
2022-01-24
The highly-anticipated Midseason Fantasy Hockey Guide was released on Friday (January 14). You can buy it here and download it right away. And I actually put in a small update Sunday:
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So how do we value Mike Matheson? This is a defenseman who has very good (and now underrated) offensive skills, but is weak defensively. Long-time readers know that I was quite high on him as a prospect, but he never got going with Florida. To me, that was more of a numbers game. Between Aaron Ekblad and Keith Yandle, where does Matheson fit? And so, he settled in as a 30-point player without any PP time. Then he gets traded to Pittsburgh. Last season was short at 56 games, and after we give him time to settle in and then recover from an injury, we don't have much to go on. He had 11 points in a 12-game stretch beginning late-March. And right in the middle of that, I acquired him super-cheap in my (very) deep dynasty. But now he's 27 so his window seems to be established. However, I wanted to give him this year. One more chance. He's still not getting power-play time, but 25 games in he seems to have found a bit of a comfort zone. He now has 11 points in his last 16 games.
The other 14 owners in my dynasty had zero interest in Matheson, and have had no interest in him for a good three years or longer. I finally started getting offers for him this weekend. We have four rounds of drafting each summer and I was offered a third and a fourth. I turned it down, but later included him in a blockbuster. I figured I would have agreed to a second and a third – and I don't think anyone would have offered that. His true value is probably a third-round pick for now, and more if he continues to produce over the next month. I admit that I use my personal (long-time) bias to turn down that offer, but didn't let it cloud my judgment when the other GM insisted he be included in the blockbuster.
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Matheson was held pointless on Sunday, though he did move the puck forward from behind center. Connor Hellebuyck then shot the puck right to Jeff Carter who scored. It was an unassisted goal, but I did have to double-check to make sure they didn't credit Matheson with an assist. Sometimes lenient scorekeepers do it.
Evan Rodrigues is pointless in his last eight games now. Yes, I know Evgeni Malkin is back and now Bryan Rust is too. But right now, there shouldn't be a reason for this slide. His ice time (inflated a bit by overtime) was a solid 17:05 and 3:44 on the power play. He was rotating on and off Malkin's line (rotating with Kasperi Kapanen, while Danton Heinen held onto the line throughout), and he rotated between the first and second PP units. Sometimes it's just a plain old shift in chemistry that does it. The player changes the way he makes decisions when someone with Malkin's pedigree steps onto the ice with him. When Rodrigues was playing with Tommy Stonehands and Jimmy Lunchbox, he couldn't stop scoring. Now? No dice. I can't say if he'll turn it back around, but I can say that if he doesn't – that ice time is going to go away. One positive is that he had five shots on goal, which is his highest of those eight games.
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Blake Wheeler may be slowing down, but keep in mind that he's a slow starter and that's becoming more the case as he ages. The 35-year-old picked up two points Sunday, giving him 14 points in his last nine games after starting with just five in 15. He's currently playing with Mark Scheifele and Andrew Copp, as the Nik Ehlers injury has shifted the lines a little for the Jets. Copp was pointless Sunday but had six points in five games prior to that.
Cole Perfetti slots into the top six while Ehlers is sidelined, playing with Kyle Connor and PL Dubois. It's Paul Stastny who suffers the most – he shifts down to the third line and that with Adam Lowry and minor-leaguer Austin Poganski.
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Alex Formenton, in picking up an assist Sunday, now has 14 points in his last 15 contests. He lined up with Drake Batherson and Tim Stutzle as the Sens have shuffled Batherson off the Brady Tkachuk line. This is an effort to get both Stutzle and Zach Sanford going. Here were the line combos:
Time | % | EV – FORWARDS | GF | GA | +/- | SF | SA | SF% | CF | CA | CF% |
13:15 | 26.5 | WATSON – PAUL – GAMBRELL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 44.4 | 4 | 10 | 28.6 |
7:53 | 15.8 | SANFORD – TKACHUK – NORRIS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 44.4 | 9 | 15 | 37.5 |
6:21 | 12.7 | ENNIS – TIERNEY – GAUDETTE | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 54.5 | 10 | 8 | 55.6 |
6:16 | 12.5 | FORMENTON – BATHERSON – STUTZLE | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 42.9 | 4 | 5 | 44.4 |
With rebuilding teams, you see them try some of those 'tweeners' in consistent scoring situations in order to see if they can dig up a diamond or two. With Sanford, 27, it's becoming apparent that what you see is what you get. That promising 42-point scoring pace that he had in 2019-20 was probably the best you're going to get. This season was his 'Breakout Threshold' and at his age I don't give him too much leash beyond that. A 23-year-old, for example, not breaking out in his BT, I would still keep an eye on him the following season. But not for a 27-year-old.
By 'tweener' I refer to both definitions: a second/third line player (checking/scoring tweener) and an AHL/NHL tweener (not good enough for an NHL scoring line, but probably too good for an AHL scoring line).
It's funny to be able to say that Batherson was moved to another line to help get it going. But he's come a long way, reaching his potential and in the eyes of some – exceeding it. He's currently on pace for 90 points.
Anton Forsberg had himself another Quality Start, bouncing back from a terrible on on January 20. In fact, since December 6 he is 4-2-1 with a 2.05 GAA and 0.933 SV%. And that's amazing when you consider that on Jan. 20 he got yanked after allowing two goals on seven shots – and that's included in the above window. Now 29, Forsberg has had more NHL chances than a cat has lives. This is his seventh season with at least one game in the NHL – but it's the first time he's been consistently good. He's earned his stay.
By the way, look at the speed of Stutzle in scoring his goal. And think about the speed of a line involving both Stutzle and Formenton:
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Since scoring six goals on January 13, Columbus has totaled six goals in four games since. I have a policy in my dynasties to stay away from Columbus and Arizona players. I just don't see a way out of this impotent offense in the next couple of years. I do have Oliver Bjorkstrand, but he's probably the top offensive forward on the team and I am not against trading him. Playing for that franchise is holding him down by a good 10 or 15 points. I mean…he played with Sean Kuraly on Sunday! Kuraly?
Bjorkstrand, by the way, has nine points in his last 21 games.
Zach Werenski picked up an assist Sunday, but has just three points in his last nine games and is minus-6 in that span. The team is really missing right-shooting Adam Boqvist, who has been lining up on the power play alongside left-shot Werenski.
Both Max Domi and Jack Roslovic were planted on the bench. Each of them had less than 10 minutes of ice time. Two players, just entering their prime, who should be flirting with 55 points this year
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Jesper Bratt is becoming a superstar. He's the driver on the Devils and is pushing Jack Hughes to his potential. The two have great chemistry and this looks like a long-term partnership. I see them boosting each other's totals into the 90s for years to come. Bratt, in his BT season, is at 36 points in 37 games.
In moving Pavel Zacha off the Nico Hischier line down to the Andreas Johnsson and Dawson Mercer line, it got the two going again. They were shutout Sunday, but Saturday the trio combined for seven points.
Damon Severson has nine points in his last eight games – seven in his last seven, with Dougie Hamilton out. Just two of those points come via the power play. He's doing it by getting the key ES offensive situations.
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Viktor Arvidsson has quietly posted 20 points in his last 24 games. I can't figure out if his slow start was due to lack of chemistry with Anze Kopitar, or if it was just the opening games of the season with a new team. Sometimes players start slowly that way. But I wonder if at some point he gets another crack on that line. Offensively, he's too good for Phillip Danault and Trevor Moore, although as a trio they each bring such different elements to the table that maybe they remain together throughout.
After 15 minutes of ice time in his first NHL game of the season, Quinton Byfield was down to just 9:38 in his second. The difference was the lack of power plays available. The youngster saw over five minutes of PP time on Thursday, but there was just the one PP Sunday (plus the one with 20 seconds left in the game).
Cal Petersen now has four Quality Starts in his last five outings. A very rough start has slowly been turning around for him, though he has a ways to go before his numbers are back to where they should be. Funny enough, he has now already tied his career high win total (nine) despite the rough start to the campaign. He wasn't getting the support last season, and now he's getting tons of it.
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Mackenzie Weegar is having a fantastic season and entered Sunday's game a plus-23. He exited it a plus-19. He had 25 points in 38 games – just one on the power play – but is now pointless in four and was minus-4 on Sunday.
It looks like Sam Bennett might still be nursing his lower-body injury a bit. He was back in the lineup, but his ice time was held to 14 minutes and he wasn't a part of the power play. The latter note is odd, considering he had eight points in four games prior to this one.
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With just a few minutes left in the third here, the Canucks were destroying the Blues in terms of control and possession…but down 3-1 in the game. Ville Husso is playing incredible, but also the Canucks penalty kill is horrible – and has been horrible for quite some time now. I think you can expect them to address this via trade, possibly in the coming days but definitely in advance of the March 21 Trade Deadline.
With two more assists, Vladimir Tarasenko is on pace for a career high in that category. With his goal scoring down only marginally…his overall point total is looking like it will be a career best. After two injury-filled season (shoulder), this is the prime-year breakout that he should have had a long time ago. Better late than never.
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I was surprised to hear Elliotte Friedman, on Saturday, note that Edmonton may have been sniffing around the Coyotes for Karel Vejmelka, but were turned off by the asking price. He said that the Yotes were hoping to extend Vejmelka longer term. But man, put that quality goaltender behind Edmonton's scoring and it changes everything. I honestly hope we see it get done. Pay the price! Either way, the Oilers need to pay for a goalie – and best to do it for a young goalie that they could keep for the long term.
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The new Goalie Post is now going through the fixes that myself and Mike Amato listed for the programmers. Hoping to launch this week. Bear with us. You'll love it. Follow me on Twitter for details and the official 'launch' announcement.
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See you next Monday.