Ramblings: Zegras Magic; Kane Signs; Coyotes Future; Merzlikins – January 28

Michael Clifford

2022-01-28

It has been a small sample so far, but Alex Tuch has been very impressive in Buffalo. He has 10 points in 10 games, and they generally look competitive in most games they play, even if they're not close. There are young players that are improving while Rasmus Dahlin looks great on an improving blue line. These aren't things often said of Buffalo rosters in recent memory.

One thing that is a bit concerning right now is that Tuch is seeing a shot rate decline of over 30% from last year, and it's by far the lowest of his career. Now, again, it's just been 10 games, and that doesn't tell us anything concrete about his future with the Sabres.

The one point I want to make here is that now that he's on the top line with Buffalo, he's playing with very good line mates. Back in Vegas, he was on a third line, a pseudo-checking line, and that means he was usually the most gifted offensive player on his trio. He is taking just 18% of the shot attempts generated with him on the ice, down quite a bit from a career-low of 21% back in 2017-18. Both Tage Thompson and Jeff Skinner are shooters and goal scorers. If the team is only going to generate ~60 shot attempts per 60 minutes with them on the ice, there are only so many shots to go around. Tuch is no longer the most gifted player on his line, in my opinion, and even if he were, the other two are shooters.

I do think that he's going to find a lot of success in Buffalo, and this isn't meant to negate that. This is to say that shots on goal are a finite resource and there is reason to believe that Tuch won't see huge shot rate jumps even if he keeps playing 19 minutes a night. He will bring enough elsewhere to be valuable, and he won't fall off the map shot-wise, but it's something to monitor moving forward.

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It sure seemed that this was going to be the last year for Arizona in their current arena, given they stopped paying bills a while ago and had to be shamed into catching up. That left them in a pretty precarious situation, you know, being a professional sports franchise with nowhere to play.

The problem has been solved, assuming they have to change locales. They get to stay close and move to a 5000-seat stadium:

In a radio hit later in the day, Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet said that with some changes to the arena to make it suitable for an NHL team, that could drop as low as 3200 seats. The university hockey team that plays in my hometown of ~55 000 people plays out of an arena of the same size. It's an embarrassment (the Coyotes and the NHL, not my hometown university team).

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It looks as if Evander Kane is on his way to the Edmonton Oilers

The NHL cleared him of any breach of contract, which of course raises the immediate question of how the Sharks could fire him for breach of contract. Reporters around the league are saying there are two separate incidents, but what incident got his contract terminated with zero league discipline? These are the kinds of things that run through my head at four in the morning.

There isn't much reason to think he won't be a big success skating with either Connor McDavid or Leon Draisaitl, it's a question of how they assemble their lines and PP units. With Zach Hyman returning on Thursday night, Kane joining the fold, plus guys like RNH, Pulju, and Yamamoto, well, some forwards are going to get the short end of the stick. Personally, I think this means nothing but bad things for Pulju, who'll almost assuredly lose his PP role. One of Hyman and RNH are going to lose theirs as well, assuming Kane goes to the top unit with McDavid/Draisaitl/Bouchard.

Edmonton does do this thing where they just leave McDavid/Draisaitl and split players across two units and that can happen here. That would still mean some lost minutes though, and if they don't, it'll hurt a couple guys a lot.

This is great news for Kane cap leaguers, I suppose?

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One guy that we should be keeping tabs on throughout the season – and I have been, to some degree – is Troy Terry. The reason I say that is because he has shown tremendous offensive upside at various parts of his younger days, but it never materialized in the NHL, or at least not until this season. What I did notice is that he's producing expected goals at a borderline first-line rate, similar to names like Jordan Kyrou and teammate Rickard Rakell. But it has fallen off the last six weeks or so, much more towards the middle of the league. He is still scoring, and that's what ultimately matter, but I wouldn't want to rely on him shooting 20% at 5-on-5 to keep doing it.

What is the true upside here? No idea yet, honestly. I don't think we have a clear enough picture of how good (or bad) the Ducks will be three years from now. We don't even have a clear enough picture for how good Terry will be. It is nice to see him do well, but there are still some question marks here.

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A day after writing about Elvis Merzlikins' 56-save performance, I'm still kind of in awe about it. It wasn't the Ben Scrivens, but it was beautiful in a way because it was such a shellacking. Despite that, Merzlikins played wonderfully. Those kinds of dichotomies are always fun.

Merzlikins is, in my mind, turning into one of the top goalies in hockey. I wouldn't quite put him with the Vasilevskiy/Shesterkin/Saros tier yet, but he's not far off, I don't thin. He is top-5 by high-danger save percentage over the last three years and he turns 28 in the spring. Could he just be hitting his stride now, with a handful of elite seasons to come? It wouldn't surprise me.

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Not long after Drake Batherson hit the injured reserve with an injured ankle, more bad news. On Thursday night, Josh Norris took an awkward fall into the boards while battling with Andrei Svechnikov. He would leave the game and did not return.

This would be very bad news for a bevy of Ottawa players but it could be good news for Tim Stützle. There is no reason to not think he won't be playing with Brady Tkachuk for the near-term, though I have been surprised before.

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It appears as Trevor Zegras has, in a few words, gone and done it again:

It's one thing to pull off a Michigan; it's still hard and teams are looking for it now. It's another thing to do it in stride as you're skating behind the net. It is just another level of impressiveness that he manages to achieve. That this happened against the Habs isn't a real surprise to anyone, is it?  

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On the topic of players taking awkward spills, Adam Fox took one of those in their game against Columbus and left. This happened in the third period, and Jacob Trouba took his spot on the top power-play unit. For Trouba, that would basically be the final piece to his fantasy value. He is a guy that can do a lot (in fact, look for more from him in today's 'Frozen Tools' column from Chris Kane).

As for Fox, nothing more from the team so we'll have to wait and see if it's serious, and how serious it may be.

Boone Jenner had two goals and two assists in Columbus's 5-3 win over the New York Rangers. It should be noted that the Rangers largely carried play here, but it's tough to overcome your goalie saving under 80% of the shots he faces. Alexander Georgiev was the starter, by the way. Jenner added a block and six hits for good measure in what was just an absolute monster fantasy night.

Artemi Panarin had a goal and two assists in the loss. That makes 106 points in his last 81 games. 

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J.T. Miller scored a hat trick in the first 33 minutes of Vancouver's game on Thursday against Winnipeg. Bruce Boudreau had split up the Lotto line, putting Elias Pettersson on the third line to try and spread things outs. For Miller, that puts him on pace for 30 goals again this year, keeping him over a point-per-game pace. Just a great first half of the season for him.

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Max Pacioretty returned for the Golden Knights but they lost 4-1 against the Panthers in what was a pretty good game. The final score is a bit misleading, as Florida scored a pair of empty netters, one from Sam Bennett. He had two goals in this game, and basically cannot stop scoring as he has 11 goals in nine games since the calendar turned to 2022. He now has his first 20-goal season of his career, and it took him a grand total of 34 games to do it. That gives him 26 goals and 43 points in 44 career games with the Panthers. Safe to say he is off to a good start.

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For as maligned as the Kraken goaltending has been, Philipp Grubauer saved 23 of 24 in a 2-1 overtime win in Pittsburgh on Thursday night. Small steps forward, but he now has a .910 save percentage across his last five games and the team seems to be playing tighter defensively. This could be the start of a decent second half for him, as long as the team keeps up this play.

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UPCOMING GAMES

Dec 23 - 13:12 N.J vs NYR
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Dec 23 - 19:12 DET vs STL
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Dec 23 - 19:12 PIT vs PHI
Dec 23 - 19:12 NYI vs BUF
Dec 23 - 20:12 NSH vs CAR
Dec 23 - 20:12 MIN vs CHI
Dec 23 - 21:12 UTA vs DAL
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Starting Goalies

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JACKSON LACOMBE ANA
LANE HUTSON MTL
PATRIK LAINE MTL
SHANE PINTO OTT
JONATHAN HUBERDEAU CGY

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  Players Team
MACKENZIE BLACKWOOD COL
SPENCER KNIGHT FLA
DAVID RITTICH L.A
LUKAS DOSTAL ANA
JACOB MARKSTROM N.J

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency DAL Players
20.6 SAM STEEL COLIN BLACKWELL OSKAR BACK
19.8 JASON ROBERTSON ROOPE HINTZ MAVRIK BOURQUE
13.8 LOGAN STANKOVEN WYATT JOHNSTON JAMIE BENN

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