Ramblings: NHL All-Star Game, Top Frozen Tools Searches – Brown, Barrie, Seguin, Heinola (Feb 6)
Ian Gooding
2022-02-06
The Metropolitan Division is this season's All-Star Game winner, defeating the Central Division 5-3. Claude Giroux was the game's MVP, scoring two goals in the final and another goal and assist in the first win against the Pacific Division. Giroux showed some razzle dazzle in his first goal.
One second-half question on the minds of many hockey fans will be whether Giroux will still be a Flyer at the trade deadline. The Flyers captain will be a UFA at the end of the season.
Here are some other notable sights and sounds from Vegas that happened to catch my attention. First, the view from a drone of many of the sights of the event in Vegas.
I don’t think I’ve seen anything like this at an All-Star Game musical performance before.
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Continuing our look at the Top Frozen Tools searches, here are four more popular profiles from the past few days:
As you may have heard already, the Senators are a team to target fantasy-wise in the second half. Only the Islanders will play more games than the Senators in the second half (42 games remaining). For that reason, Alex Formenton has received a lot of attention recently. Yet one Senator who consistently flies under the radar in spite of some very solid scoring numbers over the past few seasons in Ottawa is Brown.
With 19 points in 26 games, Brown is scoring at 0.73 PTS/GP, which works out to be a 60-point pace. He won't reach that because he has missed 14 games, yet his scoring pace over the previous two seasons can be extrapolated to a 50-point pace over a full season. As well, only Drake Batherson and Brady Tkachuk have a higher point-per-game average on the Senators than Brown.
Brown is expected to return to the Senators lineup on Monday after missing time with a broken jaw. That might explain why he is rostered in only 7 percent of Yahoo leagues. However, a low ranking in Yahoo can also be explained by relatively low peripherals (-7, 5 PPP, 44 SOG, 9 HIT, 13 BLK). However, multiple-week injuries to both Batherson and Josh Norris could result in Brown being bumped up to the first-unit power play. That could provide a significant boost to Brown's value, and one more reason that he might be worth a speculative add.
If you haven't checked out Dobber's Reddit Q&A from Friday, it's worth having a read through. One particularly interesting question was how the situation with Barrie and Evan Bouchard plays out for the rest of the season. I agree with Dobber that the contract is the main factor, which means that Barrie will continue to be on PP1 for the foreseeable future. But is he still deserving of that spot? Let's compare the two.
Name | GP | G | A | PTS | PTS/G | Pace | PPP | SOG | +/- |
TYSON BARRIE | 36 | 3 | 14 | 17 | 0.47 | 36 | 9 | 76 | -6 |
EVAN BOUCHARD | 42 | 9 | 15 | 24 | 0.57 | 47 | 4 | 102 | 4 |
Frozen Tools Player Compare: Barrie / Bouchard
Bouchard is not only outscoring Barrie, he is also producing at a higher point-per-game pace this season. Bouchard is also taking more shots, and he's a better defender overall. I think the explanation for Barrie being left on PP1 lies not only with the contract, but also the fact that Barrie led all defensemen in scoring last season. He's being given a long rope, and the Oilers' power play is still one of the top units in the league (27.3 PP%) although it has produced at a more league-average rate (19 PP%) over the past month. Not all of that lies on Barrie, although his last power-play point was on December 16 – a span of eight games.
A secondary assist rate of 42.9% is a reason for Barrie's lower output this season. It's not the lowest rate of his career, but it's in the bottom half. On the other hand, his 67.5% secondary assist rate last season was the highest of his career. That right there should have been a red flag to not overvalue Barrie. It's fair to say that he should rebound a bit in the second half and improve on his current sub-40-point pace, but he's not the player that he showed last season. A bit of a buy-low here if you need a defenseman, but don't offer anything elite-level in return.
If the Oilers continue to underwhelm with their current mix, I wouldn't rule out them trying to shop Barrie. It's fair to say that Bouchard would be the major beneficiary of such a trade.
If you're searching for players that are rostered in too many leagues, Seguin (78% in both Yahoo and Fantrax) might come to mind. He's currently on pace for a 44-point season, which is a significant drop for a player you could pencil in for 70-80 points per season for six years. It's worth mentioning that Seguin has returned from major knee and hip injuries that sidelined him for almost all of last season and even forced him to relearn to walk with that leg, so it's quite possible that he is never the same player again.
Yet is Seguin showing signs of bouncing back? Over his last eight games, Seguin has scored 10 points, including five goals. This output has still been mainly with Jamie Benn on his line, as the two have often been mentioned together as one-time top-end forwards whose production has taken a major nosedive. Benn had gone 11 games without a point before scoring goals in each of his last two games.
The unit of Joe Pavelski, Roope Hintz, and Jason Robertson have taken over as the Stars' top forward line – there is no doubt about that. Seguin has still managed to stick around on the first power-play unit with those three, but he is clearly a second-line player now. Given Seguin's recent hot streak, you may want to hold off on dropping him. If this recent production burst means that his leg strength is returning, then he may be due for a stronger second half.
For some reason, Heinola was at the top of the list on Friday in spite of having played only four games this season. Finnish spam bots? All kidding aside, Mike mentioned him in the Ramblings a couple days ago as having been sent down to the AHL, but that could be to give him more playing time during the All-Star break. Heinola had originally been recalled in late January, although he has averaged just under 14 minutes per game and received limited power-play time.
The Dobber Prospects profile page might be worth a look here. Down on the farm, Heinola is impressing with 16 points in 24 games, following up from 11 points in 19 games in the AHL last season. He appears to be ready for some kind of NHL spot this season, although he may be the odd man out once one or more of Nathan Beaulieu, Dylan Samberg, or Logan Stanley return from IR. It's easy to send Heinola back to the AHL at that point since he is waivers exempt. If he is able to stay, icetime will be a concern, and he won't bump either Neal Pionk or Josh Morrissey off the power play either.
Heinola seems like a decent keeper, as he is currently #11 on the Top Prospect Defensemen rankings and could easily find himself on the Jets PP1 one day. In single-season league, though, he doesn't seem to be quite ready.
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