Frozen Tool Forensics: Impacts of the All-Star Break – Part 2
Chris Kane
2022-02-11
Last week we started looking at what I called the impacts of the All-Star Break. It really was less of an impact, but more of a look at trends over the first half versus the second half of the season. The biggest takeaways were that over the last two seasons Leon Draisaitl has been a strong second half performer and generally scoring seems to be a bit down in the second half compared to the first.
This week on Frozen Tool Forensics:Impacts of the All-Star Break Part 2
The term 'half' is a bit of a misnomer though. Usually at the All-Star is at about the 50-game mark so we are really talking about slightly different sample sizes, not just a first half, second half split.
As a reminder, to get these data I went in pulled Big Board reports for specific time periods. I was looking at two seasons, roughly split in half, so I used the Custom Date Range option to set beginning of the season to the break, and then from the break to the end of the season. The seasons in question are the 19-20 season and the 18-19 season as they were less impacted by COVID than the 20-21 season.
Last week we left off by identifying a list of high performing folks from the first half that had a reasonably low chance of continuing their high pace over the second half of the season. This week we are going to focus on players who saw the biggest changes in their splits, and players who saw the same changes in both seasons.
First off let's look at players who saw the biggest points per game increase over these two seasons. As a reminder this table includes both points per game (PTS/GP) and goals per game (G/GP) numbers for both pre and post All Star Game. It also has summary columns to show the difference. The table below is sorted by the difference in points per game for both seasons.
| Prior To ASG | Post ASG | |||||||||
| Name | Pos | GP | PTS/GP | G/GP | GP | PTS/GP | G/GP | Δ PTS/G | Δ G/G | |
| 2019-20 | KEVIN FIALA | L | 45 | 0.62 | 0.20 | 19 | 1.37 | 0.74 | 0.75 | 0.54 |
| 2019-20 | MIKAEL BACKLUND | C | 50 | 0.44 | 0.12 | 20 | 1.15 | 0.50 | 0.71 | 0.38 |
| 2018-19 | VLADIMIR TARASENKO | R | 48 | 0.67 | 0.35 | 28 | 1.29 | 0.57 | 0.62 | 0.22 |
| 2018-19 | AUSTIN WATSON | R | 34 | 0.38 | 0.21 | 3 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.62 | -0.21 |
| 2019-20 | ANDREW MANGIAPANE | L | 48 | 0.31 | 0.17 | 20 | 0.85 | 0.45 | 0.54 | 0.28 |
| 2018-19 | MATS ZUCCARELLO | R | 35 | 0.69 | 0.23 | 13 | 1.23 | 0.31 | 0.54 | 0.08 |
| 2019-20 | MIKA ZIBANEJAD | C | 35 | 1.11 | 0.51 | 22 | 1.64 | 1.05 | 0.53 | 0.53 |
| 2018-19 | PAVEL ZACHA | L | 43 | 0.26 | 0.16 | 18 | 0.78 | 0.33 | 0.52 | 0.17 |
| 2019-20 | RYAN NUGENT-HOPKINS | C | 43 | 0.77 | 0.30 | 22 | 1.27 | 0.41 | 0.5 | 0.11 |
| 2019-20 | SEBASTIAN AHO | C | 50 | 0.84 | 0.48 | 18 | 1.33 | 0.78 | 0.49 | 0.30 |
These are single season increases, but there are 16 players who increased in their point per game numbers in both seasons. The 10 most fantasy-relevant players are listed below. Each player has both of their seasons listed to display the points per game numbers, and a new column that shows the average increase in points per game.
| Prior To ASG | Post ASG | ||||||||
| Name | Pos | GP | PTS/GP | G/P | GP | PTS/GP | Δ PTS/G | Av Increase | |
| 2018-19 | PAVEL ZACHA | L | 43 | 0.26 | 0.16 | 18 | 0.78 | 0.52 | 0.39 |
| 2019-20 | PAVEL ZACHA | L | 44 | 0.41 | 0.07 | 21 | 0.67 | 0.26 | |
| 2019-20 | PAVEL BUCHNEVICH | L | 48 | 0.54 | 0.17 | 20 | 1 | 0.46 | 0.355 |
| 2018-19 | PAVEL BUCHNEVICH | L | 32 | 0.47 | 0.28 | 32 | 0.72 | 0.25 | |
| 2019-20 | JESPER BRATT | R | 40 | 0.4 | 0.20 | 20 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.285 |
| 2018-19 | JESPER BRATT | R | 34 | 0.59 | 0.12 | 17 | 0.76 | 0.17 | |
| 2019-20 | COLTON PARAYKO | D | 42 | 0.31 | 0.05 | 22 | 0.68 | 0.37 | 0.29 |
| 2018-19 | COLTON PARAYKO | D | 49 | 0.27 | 0.16 | 31 | 0.48 | 0.21 | |
| 2019-20 | DUNCAN KEITH | D | 42 | 0.33 | 0.02 | 19 | 0.68 | 0.35 | 0.275 |
| 2018-19 | DUNCAN KEITH | D | 51 | 0.41 | 0.02 | 31 | 0.61 | 0.2 | |
| 2018-19 | ANTHONY MANTHA | L | 36 | 0.56 | 0.33 | 31 | 0.9 | 0.34 | 0.255 |
| 2019-20 | ANTHONY MANTHA | L | 29 | 0.83 | 0.41 | 14 | 1 | 0.17 | |
| 2018-19 | RASMUS ANDERSSON | D | 48 | 0.15 | 0.02 | 31 | 0.39 | 0.24 | 0.215 |
| 2019-20 | RASMUS ANDERSSON | D | 50 | 0.26 | 0.06 | 20 | 0.45 | 0.19 | |
| 2018-19 | JACOB LARSSON | D | 38 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 11 | 0.27 | 0.22 | 0.215 |
| 2019-20 | JACOB LARSSON | D | 38 | 0.11 | 0.03 | 22 | 0.32 | 0.21 | |
| 2018-19 | ADRIAN KEMPE | R | 49 | 0.27 | 0.10 | 32 | 0.47 | 0.2 | 0.195 |
| 2019-20 | ADRIAN KEMPE | R | 49 | 0.41 | 0.20 | 20 | 0.6 | 0.19 | |
| 2018-19 | WILLIAM KARLSSON | C | 52 | 0.62 | 0.31 | 30 | 0.8 | 0.18 | 0.175 |
| 2019-20 | WILLIAM KARLSSON | C | 49 | 0.69 | 0.20 | 14 | 0.86 | 0.17 |
A few notes here:
Several of these players are already stepping into bigger roles this season, Jesper Bratt, Adrian Kempe, and Pavel Buchnevich so it might be a little harder for them to show improvement again.
New Jersey is well represented with Pavel Zacha and Jesper Bratt.
Our highest average gains are Pavel Zacha, Buchnevich, and Bratt. Bratt is already on an 80-point pace (with a previous high of 53) so again wondering how much his second half can really improve. Buchnevich is on a career high 78-point pace on a new team (after a previous high is 73). While a lot of it looks sustainable it is again hard to see him pushing his pace even higher over the second half. Zacha's point pace has actually dropped quite a bit from his 20-21 season. Unfortunately, nothing seems incredibly off in his numbers, but he might be the best bet of the three for the three-peat.
And now on to the players who have seen the biggest losses.
| Prior To ASG | Post ASG | |||||||||
| Name | Pos | GP | PTS/GP | G/P | GP | PTS/GP | G/P | Δ PTS/G | Δ G/G | |
| 2018-19 | MIKKO RANTANEN | C | 50 | 1.48 | 0.46 | 24 | 0.54 | 0.33 | -0.94 | -0.13 |
| 2019-20 | JONATHAN DROUIN | L | 19 | 0.79 | 0.37 | 8 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.79 | -0.37 |
| 2018-19 | DUSTIN BYFUGLIEN | D | 32 | 0.91 | 0.13 | 10 | 0.2 | 0.00 | -0.71 | -0.13 |
| 2019-20 | JONATHAN HUBERDEAU | L | 49 | 1.33 | 0.37 | 20 | 0.65 | 0.25 | -0.68 | -0.12 |
| 2019-20 | CAM ATKINSON | R | 39 | 0.67 | 0.31 | 5 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.67 | -0.31 |
| 2019-20 | ALEKSANDER BARKOV | C | 49 | 1.1 | 0.33 | 17 | 0.47 | 0.24 | -0.63 | -0.09 |
| 2019-20 | BROCK BOESER | R | 49 | 0.88 | 0.33 | 8 | 0.25 | 0.00 | -0.63 | -0.33 |
| 2018-19 | JOHNNY GAUDREAU | L | 51 | 1.43 | 0.57 | 31 | 0.84 | 0.23 | -0.59 | -0.34 |
| 2018-19 | ERIK KARLSSON | D | 47 | 0.91 | 0.06 | 6 | 0.33 | 0.00 | -0.58 | -0.06 |
Again, these are one off losses over the last two seasons, and a number of them are due to small sample sizes. These are interesting, but what we really want to know is if there are players who are consistently doing this. Overall, there were 36 players who dropped pace over the second half in both seasons, the following table is the 12 most owned players.
| Prior To ASG | Post ASG | |||||||
| Name | Pos | GP | PTS/GP | GP | PTS/GP | Δ PTS/G | Av Loss | |
| 2019-20 | BLAKE COLEMAN | R | 48 | 0.56 | 18 | 0.28 | -0.28 | -0.27 |
| 2018-19 | BLAKE COLEMAN | R | 48 | 0.56 | 30 | 0.3 | -0.26 | |
| 2018-19 | ELIAS PETTERSSON | L | 40 | 1.13 | 31 | 0.68 | -0.45 | -0.35 |
| 2019-20 | ELIAS PETTERSSON | L | 49 | 1.04 | 19 | 0.79 | -0.25 | |
| 2019-20 | JACK EICHEL | C | 48 | 1.29 | 20 | 0.8 | -0.49 | -0.355 |
| 2018-19 | JACK EICHEL | C | 45 | 1.16 | 32 | 0.94 | -0.22 | |
| 2018-19 | JEFF SKINNER | L | 48 | 0.92 | 34 | 0.56 | -0.36 | -0.325 |
| 2019-20 | JEFF SKINNER | L | 39 | 0.49 | 20 | 0.2 | -0.29 | |
| 2019-20 | JOHN CARLSON | D | 49 | 1.22 | 20 | 0.75 | -0.47 | -0.345 |
| 2018-19 | JOHN CARLSON | D | 49 | 0.96 | 31 | 0.74 | -0.22 | |
| 2018-19 | MATT DUCHENE | R | 41 | 1.15 | 32 | 0.72 | -0.43 | -0.315 |
| 2019-20 | MATT DUCHENE | R | 44 | 0.7 | 22 | 0.5 | -0.2 | |
| 2018-19 | MITCHELL MARNER | R | 49 | 1.27 | 33 | 0.97 | -0.3 | -0.295 |
| 2019-20 | MITCHELL MARNER | R | 38 | 1.24 | 21 | 0.95 | -0.29 | |
| 2018-19 | NATHAN MACKINNON | C | 50 | 1.42 | 32 | 0.88 | -0.54 | -0.48 |
| 2019-20 | NATHAN MACKINNON | C | 49 | 1.47 | 20 | 1.05 | -0.42 | |
| 2018-19 | PHIL KESSEL | R | 48 | 1.1 | 34 | 0.85 | -0.25 | -0.245 |
| 2019-20 | PHIL KESSEL | R | 51 | 0.61 | 19 | 0.37 | -0.24 | |
| 2018-19 | PIERRE-LUC DUBOIS | C | 48 | 0.9 | 34 | 0.53 | -0.37 | -0.27 |
| 2019-20 | PIERRE-LUC DUBOIS | C | 51 | 0.75 | 19 | 0.58 | -0.17 | |
| 2019-20 | SAM REINHART | R | 49 | 0.84 | 20 | 0.45 | -0.39 | -0.345 |
| 2018-19 | SAM REINHART | R | 48 | 0.92 | 34 | 0.62 | -0.3 | |
| 2019-20 | VIKTOR ARVIDSSON | R | 35 | 0.57 | 22 | 0.36 | -0.21 | -0.205 |
| 2018-19 | VIKTOR ARVIDSSON | R | 28 | 0.93 | 30 | 0.73 | -0.2 |
There are some big names on this list that have been performing better in the first half. Mitch Marner, Nathan MacKinnon, Jack Eichel, and John Carlson lead the way. Eichel is clearly going to be the exception this season given he hasn't played. Generally. these players are just such elite talent that there really isn't anything to do about this. It isn't like managers should be selling these players because they have a history of performing slightly lower in the second half.
Elias Pettersson makes this list though it seems at least pretty likely he won't be on it for a third season. His 46-point pace over the first half (plus Vancouver's dramatically poor start) seem more like the outliers given his career numbers. That being said, nothing about Pettersson's first half screams breakout coming, so I am not exactly saying that, but getting worse than his 46-point pace should be a challenge for someone of his skill.
Players like Viktor Arvidsson, Sam Reinhart, Matt Duchene, Jeff Skinner, and Pierre-Luc Dubois are all having good starts (relative to their recent histories). For the most part they are all players getting a new lease on life, whether a new team or new deployment. That change provides some optimism that they can keep their paces from the first half, but these are definitely the kind of historically borderline players that bear watching.
That is all for this week
Do your part to support organizations working to make hockey for everyone.
Related Posts
UPCOMING GAMES
PIT
WPG
ANA
BUFStarting Goalies
Top Skater Views
DAL
CBJ
S.J
COLTop Goalie Profile Views
CGY
CAR
DET
LINE COMBOS
| Frequency |
 CHI Players
| |
|---|---|---|
| 25.4 | JASON DICKINSON CONNOR BEDARD JOEY ANDERSON | |
| 17.5 | TEUVO TERAVAINEN TAYLOR HALL RYAN DONATO | |
| 15.3 | ILYA MIKHEYEV NICK FOLIGNO TYLER BERTUZZI | |
DobberHockey Podcasts
Keeping Karlsson Short Shifts – Regicide
Jeremy and Shams are here to break down all the new injuries and update timelines as well. After all the injury news they close out the show covering all the cold Kings players giving actionable fantasy advice on each one. Lastly, they close out the show the latest hot Russian forward for Columbus that is only 1% rostered on Yahoo right now.
Keeping Karlsson: Marchment Madness
Elan and Brian look at who comes out on top the Avalanche return to health, opine on the likelihood of complementary top six players in Toronto, Los Angeles and Edmonton remaining relevant, and consider giving up on underachievers in Chicago, Dallas and Philadelphia.
Fantasy Hockey Life: Corey Sznajder
Corey Sznajder of allthreezones.com joins the show to talk about how he tracks microstats and identifies a couple of players they might help them assess. Have a listen! Our show is part of the Dobber Podcast Network and sponsored by Fantrax.com. Email [email protected] and ask to join our free discord. Join our Patreon at Patreon.com/fantasyhockeylife […]
Keeping Karlsson: Matchup Maximizer Week 7
Jeremy subs in to look at the schedule for the upcoming week of NHL action and recommends some players with good schedules that you should consider streaming in to win your head to head matchups.
Keeping Karlsson Short Shifts – Permission To Cut
Jeremy and Shams cover the usual headlines and injuries but get your permission slips out as the second half of the show they cover a litany of suggested players from the Patreon community to give their input on whether it’s ok to cut that big name player off your fantasy team.