Ramblings: New Coach in Edmonton; Olofsson; DeBrincat, and Laine – February 11

Michael Clifford

2022-02-11

The Oilers went ahead and fired Dave Tippett on Thursday, relieving him of his duties following their home loss to Chicago on Wednesday night. Not that it was a big surprise, but the Oilers are now on their fourth coach in four seasons, with Todd McLellan, Ken Hitchcock, Tippett, and now Jay Woodcroft all having been behind the bench since 2018-19. I wrote a bit about that Woodcroft and his incumbent problems yesterday.

For us fantasy players, it really does come down to the power play. Part of what makes the high-end guys so high-end is the ability to put up more than a power-play point every other game. If my math is right, Connor McDavid has seven PPPs in his last 20 games. That would be excellent for 99% of the NHL but it's bad for him, and Leon Draisaitl as well. If that doesn't correct itself over the team's final 38 games, fantasy owners may be left holding the bag with high-end players not living to their potential.

It will be interesting to see line combinations here as well. With the addition of Evander Kane, Tippett had tried to spread out the skill across three lines. Do they try to condense things and leave someone on the outside (third line) looking in? That could change the fantasy outlooks of some of the players here.

All that's left to do is play some games.

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An update from Edmonton that wasn't about the coach:

Last time he was in the NHL, Broberg had an uneven appearance as far as ice-time distribution was concerned. That was during a time period where COVID was running through the league, and they don't really need him to play top-4 minutes. On the other hand, the guy who was running the bench the last time he was in the NHL will not be running the bench this time. Could this be the start of something new?

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Teuvo Teravainen was back for the Hurricanes on Thursday night. He had missed a few games for them and had seemingly been a game-time decision for two weeks (thanks, All-Star break). Him being back in the lineup really does make them look so much more dangerous all the way to the fourth line.

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An update from the Jets and their COVID guys:

Once there is more news on Pierre-Luc Dubois, we will pass it along.

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I don't even know what to think anymore:

On one hand, it's nice they have a place to play and the fans don't have to worry about them leaving yet. On the other hand, all reports are this is going to seat 3200 people and that just makes it feel like a minor league team playing in a minor league. This is the lowest of the low-hanging fruit and I do feel bad for Arizona fans, but what are we even doing here?

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Going over some recent power-play numbers, and something jumped out to me: Victor Olofsson looks primed for a breakout. Well, maybe.

This may depend on power-play units. At present time, Olofsson is on the second unit and while both are used, clearly the other one is the 'top' unit. The problem is his ice time has been cut. The team actually has some decent forward options now, so he doesn't need to play 17 minutes a night. In fact, he's been closer to the 13-minute mark of late than 16 minutes. That is a problem for fantasy value, but fortunes change fast in the NHL, and it's worth pointing out what could come.

At present, he's near the top of the league in shot rate on the power play since Christmas, and is around 80th percentile on scoring chances. He is shooting 0% in that span, though, and the complete lack of goals screams turnaround.

Again, this will depend a lot on his position improving. But the team may move him around, as they have moved a lot of players around this season. Just keep an eye on his lineup slotting, because his power-play shooting has found its groove again.

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There aren't many good things to say about the Chicago Blackhawks this year. In fact, it's almost all bad from top to bottom.

Alex DeBrincat, however, is having a fantastic season with 33 goals in 44 games. I went and looked at where he stands in historical context, and this is fun (all from Hockey Reference):

  • More goals per game from age 20-24 than Leon Draisaitl and John Tavares.
  • Sandwiched in goals per game (0.44) between Tyler Seguin (0.43) and Evgeni Malkin (0.45) from ages 20-24.  
  • Top-10 in goals per game since the year 2000-2001 in goals per game for that same age range.

Quite simply, as his fantasy owners understand, one of the best goal scorers to come around in the last quarter-century. But can he bring it all together fantasy-wise?

Not that any fantasy player would turn down a 40-goal season, but DeBrincat has never had a season where his 82-game pace in assists exceeded 40. He has only had one season with an 82-game pace exceeding 35, in fact. If he can't rack up assists, and DeBrincat stays in the 40-45 goal range, it'll be hard for him to take that next step fantasy-wise.

Again, this isn't to be taken as a complaint. It's that once we're talking about top-25, top-40 offensive players in the world, we need to start splitting hairs. DeBrincat playing on a team that isn't elite offensively like Colorado or Florida may cap his upside. He could very well be an annual 40-goal scorer, and a top-50 fantasy player, yet never be a top-12 fantasy option. Hockey is funny like that.

DeBrincat has one year left on his current deal and then he's RFA at the age of 26. All that is to say, he basically has his future in his hands at this point and could very well be out of Chicago in the not-too-distant future. Then again, maybe he gets talked into staying long-term. It may depend on if this team shows any life next season.

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With all the talk about Patrik Laine and his wrist – he ended up playing on Thursday night – I did not realize that Laine was nearly on a point-per-game pace. Nine points in four games will sneak up on anybody.

It is these kinds of stretches that always make fantasy owners fall all over themselves. It is also what makes Laine truly one of the most interesting players in the world. It works like this: yes, of course Auston Matthews is uber-elite at scoring and is solid defensively; yes, of course Connor McDavid is the most gifted hockey player we've ever seen; yes, of course Cale Makar will be able to dance all over the opposition for another decade. But I truly feel that Laine's future is either Close To The NHL's Leading Scorer and Absolutely Obliterating KHL Records, and nothing in between. I feel it's easily the former, and he’s still only 23 years old (24 in the spring).

I guess the future will tell and Columbus needs to build around him, but I think he's going to show us a lot more good than bad moving forward.

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Jakub Voracek scored early in overtime to lift the Blue Jackets 4-3 over the Sabres on Thursday night. That was Voracek's second point on the night, assisting, on Oliver Bjorkstrand's game-tying goal with about five minutes to play. That was Bjorkstrand's first goal in seven games, and not a bad time to score, either.

Zach Werenski had a big game across the board as well, with an assist, three shots, and a couple blocks to his name. His counterpart in Rasmus Dahlin scored in the loss, his eighth goal of the season, which puts him one off tying his career-high of nine set in his rookie year.

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It was a goaltending duel between former Pittsburgh Penguin Matt Murray and current Pittsburgh Penguin Casey DeSmith as the Penguins took it 2-0. Murray saved 42 of 43 shots he faced while DeSmith stopped all 26 for the shutout.

Jeff Carter scored in this one, the only goal with a goalie in net, actually. That was his first goal in six games, and his first point in five. With six shots on goal in this one, he's above three shots on goal per game for the season.

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With Alex Ovechkin out of the lineup, there was a bit of hope for the Habs on Thursday night. However, Joe Snively stepped up with a two-goal, three-point effort to lead the Capitals to a 5-2 win. He and the rest of the top line with Evgeny Kuznetsov (0-2) and Tom Wilson (1-0) combined for three of the five goals in this one.

Cole Caufield scored twice in the loss in Montreal's first game with Martin St. Louis behind the bench. Nick Suzuki played a whopping 24 minutes in this one and if that's a sign of things to come, it'll be hard to ignore him in fantasy.

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