Every Sunday, we share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean, and Dobber

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1. A couple of years ago, I posted this article and was asked to provide updated thoughts by a reader. Checking that article again, I found it interesting. Seeing the value of players then versus now. I thought I nailed it, though Adam Fox is obviously no longer a “long shot”. Hey – at least I mentioned him!

The arrival of Cale Makar, Fox, and to a lesser extent Quinn Hughes, has really changed the way teams are running their offense. I thought this was coming a decade ago, but it needed elite young defensemen to arrive and seize the league by the jockstrap and force the matter. And now, in this copycat league, you are seeing teams not only place high value in puck-moving defensemen, but using the ones they already have in more of an offensive manner (see Ekblad, Aaron). Because of this shift, I was forced to increase this list from the 20 names that I had here two years ago. We’re going with a nice, even 28!

So let’s dig in on the defensemen circa 2022 here… (feb7)

2. The first game of the Jay Woodcroft era resulted in the Oilers benefitting from the new coach bounce, as they finished with a 3-1 win over the Islanders. Mike Smith made his third start of the week his best start of the week, stopping 37 of 38 shots in earning his first win since mid-October. Dave Tippett was well-known for leaning heavily on Smith dating back to their days in Dallas and in particular Arizona, but don’t expect Smith to receive anything like back-to-back starts under Woodcroft as he had under Tippett earlier this week. That means we could see more Stuart Skinner, at least while Mikko Koskinen is in COVID protocol. Woodcroft should be very familiar with Skinner from their days in AHL Bakersfield. (feb12)

3. Evan Bouchard had the most-searched profile on Frozen Tools as of Friday, so I would be remiss if I didn’t mention him here. Bouchard had already taken on the first-unit power play duties for a few games, and he should be able to maintain that in the short term since he also has experience with Woodcroft and new assistant coach Dave Manson in the AHL. Although Bouchard does not have a point in his past four games, Tyson Barrie does not have a point in his past 11 games. Barrie is on pace for just 36 points, his fantasy value sinking like a stone and not showing signs of making an immediate recovery. (feb12)

4. The Flyers have announced that Sean Couturier will miss the rest of the season following back surgery. Couturier has not played since December 18, during which time the Flyers experienced a 13-game losing streak. The good news is that the surgery is expected to repair the back issue and there should be no lingering effects, so Couturier should be back in the lineup next season. Couturier can be stashed on IR in keeper leagues, but he can be safely dropped in single-season leagues. Keep in mind that if you are in a cap league, Couturier’s eight-year, $62-million contract kicks in next season.

Something else to think about: A potential Claude Giroux trade would make the Flyers very thin up the middle. Kevin Hayes may need surgery and is reportedly “50/50” to return this season. A quick glance at the depth chart shows that the Flyers could lean heavily on journeyman Derick Brassard down the stretch (if he is not traded himself), while Morgan Frost could find a more permanent NHL role before the season ends. (feb12)

5. You might have noticed Jordan Eberle as the Seattle representative at the All-Star Game, but remember that the expansion Kraken don’t really have a star player. In other words, they’re not the first-year Vegas Golden Knights. Entering Friday’s game, Eberle himself had not scored a goal since December 9 – a span of 22 games. Eberle picked the perfect time to snap that goal drought, scoring the game-winner with under two minutes to play in regulation to give the Kraken a 4-3 win over the Ducks. Eberle is on pace to finish with just under 50 points, a similar pace to what he had with the Islanders over the past few seasons. He’s also a team-worst minus-18. (feb12)

6. Going over some recent power-play numbers, and something jumped out to me: Victor Olofsson looks primed for a breakout. Well, maybe. This may depend on power-play units. At present time, Olofsson is on the second unit and while both are used, clearly the other one is the ‘top’ unit. The problem is his ice time has been cut. The team actually has some decent forward options now, so he doesn’t need to play 17 minutes a night. In fact, he’s been closer to the 13-minute mark of late than 16 minutes. That is a problem for fantasy value, but fortunes change fast in the NHL, and it’s worth pointing out what could come.

At present, he’s near the top of the league in shot rate on the power play since Christmas, and is around 80^th percentile on scoring chances. He is shooting 0% in that span, though, and the complete lack of goals screams turnaround.

Again, this will depend a lot on his position improving. But the team may move him around, as they have moved a lot of players around this season. Just keep an eye on his lineup slotting, because his power-play shooting has found its groove again. (feb11)

7. There aren’t many good things to say about the Chicago Blackhawks this year. In fact, it’s almost all bad from top to bottom. Alex DeBrincat, however, is having a fantastic season, so I went and looked at where he stands in historical context, and this is fun (all from Hockey Reference):

• More goals per game from age 20-24 than Leon Draisaitl and John Tavares.
• Sandwiched in goals per game (0.44) between Tyler Seguin (0.43) and Evgeni Malkin (0.45) from ages 20-24.  
• Top-10 in goals per game since the year 2000-2001 in goals per game for that same age range.

Quite simply, as his fantasy owners understand, one of the best goal scorers to come around in the last quarter-century. But can he bring it all together fantasy-wise?

Not that any fantasy player would turn down a 40-goal season, but DeBrincat has never had a season where his 82-game pace in assists exceeded 40. He has only had one season with an 82-game pace exceeding 35, in fact. If he can’t rack up assists, and DeBrincat stays in the 40-45 goal range, it’ll be hard for him to take that next step fantasy-wise.

Again, this isn’t to be taken as a complaint. It’s that once we’re talking about top-25, top-40 offensive players in the world, we need to start splitting hairs. DeBrincat playing on a team that isn’t elite offensively like Colorado or Florida may cap his upside. He could very well be an annual 40-goal scorer, and a top-50 fantasy player, yet never be a top-12 fantasy option. Hockey is funny like that. DeBrincat has one year left on his current deal and then he’s RFA at the age of 26. All that is to say, he basically has his future in his hands at this point and could very well be out of Chicago in the not-too-distant future. Then again, maybe he gets talked into staying long-term. It may depend on if this team shows any life next season. (feb11)

8. With all the talk about Patrik Laine and his wrist, I did not realize that Laine was on a point-per-game pace. Twelve (12) points in six games will sneak up on anybody. It is these kinds of stretches that always make fantasy owners fall all over themselves. It is also what makes Laine truly one of the most interesting players in the world.

It works like this: yes, of course Auston Matthews is uber-elite at scoring and is solid defensively; yes, of course Connor McDavid is the most gifted hockey player we’ve ever seen; yes, of course Cale Makar will be able to dance all over the opposition for another decade. But I truly feel that Laine’s future is either Close To The NHL’s Leading Scorer and Absolutely Obliterating KHL Records, and nothing in between. I feel it’s easily the former, and he's still only 23 years old (24 in the spring).

I guess the future will tell and Columbus needs to build around him, but I think he’s going to show us a lot more good than bad moving forward. (feb11)

9. Tuukka Rask has retired from hockey. The hope for the Boston Bruins had been to have Jeremy Swayman and Linus Ullmark handle NHL duties while Rask healed from his hip surgery. Then, Rask would return, Swayman would be sent down, and the Bruins would have a heck of a one-two punch with Swayman as insurance. Unfortunately, Rask’s hip hasn’t rebounded as hoped and given he turns 35 years old in a month, he decided that’s enough.

It seems like it wasn’t long ago that he took over for Tim Thomas after their Stanley Cup run. He finishes his career with a .921 save percentage across 564 games, every single one of them with the Bruins.

As far as things like Hall of Fame or jersey retirement go, I’ll let those arguments pass for now. There is an entire offseason for that (I suspect he will at least have his jersey retired). He was one of the most consistent goalies of the cap era, though, and that’s worth something. It was a great career for the Maple Leafs’ first rounder from 2005. (feb10)

10. For Rask fantasy owners, it’s now time to hope that Swayman is still available in your league, otherwise you may have to go fishing in the FA pile. There should be a few names worth looking into though. Mike Smith is back healthy again, and though his ratios may not be great, the volume and wins should come. Phillip Grubauer has been excellent of late as Seattle settles in to play within their identity. Pavel Francouz has two shutouts in his last three games to go along with wins in his last seven appearances. For the most part, he’s splitting time in the Avalanche crease with Darcy Kuemper. All three could bring some value and may be available on the waiver wire or cheap on the trade market. (feb9)

11. In major news, the Montreal Canadiens hired Martin St. Louis as their interim head coach, about an hour after firing Dominique Ducharme. St. Louis’s first order of business: overhaul the offense. I will leave it to the more X-and-O inclined on the coaching staff to decide what to do, but Montreal’s offense was a farce under Ducharme.

Through the first 18 games of the shortened 2021 season, the Habs were sixth in the league in scoring, and 14^th by expected goals generated. Since firing Claude Julien, the Habs are last in scoring. Dead last. Absolute last place in the league in scoring since firing Julien. Their expected goals generated are around 27^th. Even if we look at just post-Julien last season with largely the same roster, they fell from 6^th in scoring to 25^th in scoring with a commensurate expected goals drop. That is why St. Louis’s first order of business is fixing the offense. Being, uh, *checks notes* last place isn’t very good in this regard.

Part of that will be bringing the kids along. Nick Suzuki‘s offense has not developed enough yet, Cole Caufield did not take a step forward this year, Alex Romanov could use more dimensions to his game, and so on. Montreal’s problem for a long time now has been developing their draft picks, so we’ll see if there’s a change here. (feb10)

12. It does seem as if Auston Matthews has avoided serious injury and that’s good news for him, the team, and fantasy players. Remember he took an accidental knee to the head during a game earlier last week and left, not to return. 

Matthews’ 82-game paces for goals (over 60), points (over 100) and shots (about 370) have him on a torrid pace. Some of his metrics have shown very good defense this year as well, so it seems we should start talking about him for the Hart Trophy race. It is tough to say if he’s leading the conversation, but he’s certainly in the conversation as long as he stays healthy.

A couple notes about Matthews’ fantasy value entering Saturday action. First, he has 85 hits in his last 93 games played. That may not seem like a lot but considering he had just 105 in his first 282 games, that is a huge step up for him. It isn’t just a function of ice time, either. That is what’s nice to see about this new development; it could genuinely be a new wrinkle in his game, and not a brief bump due to an ice-time jump.

Second, it would be nice for some assists to be added to the portfolio. He has yet to have a season with 40 assists, though his 82-game pace is for over 40 this campaign. A strong two months could see him get there, but when we’re talking about elite fantasy assets, the well-roundedness can help. At the least, the additional hits will make up for a lot of value that was missing before, meaning those relatively low assist totals would hurt less than they otherwise would.

All that aside, he’s just having an unbelievable season. It’s so much fun to watch the guys who came into the league 6-7 years ago just put up MVP season after MVP season. It’s what makes the game so much fun at the moment, regardless of which team you actually cheer for. (feb10)

13. I missed the other day that Brayden McNabb had re-upped with Vegas for three more years at nearly $2.9M per season. He was one of the guys that was what was colloquially called an “analytics darling” when I started writing about the NHL a decade ago. To see him still succeed in the NHL, on a contender, no less, all these years later is one of those validating moments that we all like to have once in a while. (feb10)

14. If Dawson Mercer (10-15-25) was playing with a better offense and getting even low-end of what an average NHL forward sees for lucky secondary assists – he has only one of them –, he would be up to 30 points already through 47 games. That luck may turn around pretty quickly, and with the Devils starting to gel a bit more overall, in shallower leagues he’s someone that is worth looking at streaming whenever the schedule allows it. In deeper leagues he makes an excellent building block. (feb9)

15. We love seeing first career goals and it’s even better when those players were undrafted, or drafted super late. In Trey Fix-Wolansky‘s case, it’s the latter. Click on his name to be taken to his DobberProspects page. The five-foot-seven winger has some serious offensive upside, but he’s a risky option to be able to reach it. If you have a deep minors system and can wait on him, he might be worth a stash, but at best he’s still a couple years away from earning a full-time spot. (feb9)

16. Much sought-after goalie prospect Matt Guzda has chosen to sign with the Florida Panthers. On the surface, that seems to be a head-scratching move for a 21-year-old who can pick his spot between the 15+ teams that were reportedly interested, but when you dig a little deeper the red flags fade away. With the Panthers likely needing to clear cap for Jonathan Huberdeau‘s extension in the summer of 2022 (if not sooner), the odd man out is likely Sergei Bobrovsky. That leaves only Spencer Knight as real competition in the organization moving forward, where there is a real shot at an NHL job within a year or two. On top of that, the Panthers don’t have a lot of goaltending depth in their system after having traded Devon Levi, which means Guzda can soak up starts in the AHL as he turns pro. (feb9)

17. Between David Perron, Scott Perunovich, Ville Husso, and Niko Mikkola, there are a few players in need of raises, so the Blues likely won’t be able to fit everyone. Odds are Perron, who currently finds himself on the third line, may be priced out and have to find another home in free agency. My projections have him at around a $5 million AAV on his next deal, which the Blues just can’t fit. Fun fact, Perron has played for five different NHL teams, but has only ever signed contracts with St. Louis. (feb9)

18. An Ottawa defenseman that's seeing his stock take a turn towards the positive is Erik Brannstrom, who has now seen 20+ minutes of ice time in seven of his last 10 games. He’s seeing one minute of power-play time per game, as well, though he only has two points on the season to this point. Between the ice time, his shots, and some extremely unsustainable bad luck, his turnaround may see him with 10-15 points in the second half of the season, which would be a great stepping stone towards making good on his high offensive potential. (feb9)

19. Jack Eichel looks to be on his way back and that is a terrifying prospect for the rest of the West. Over his previous three seasons, Eichel had 178 points in 166 games playing for one of the worst teams in the league.

Over at Evolving Hockey, that production, along with other components, had him as a top-20 forward across the league by Goals Above Replacement (GAR). It might feel redundant to say all this, but it’s important to remember he’s an elite player who has been stuck on awful teams for a long time. There is no telling which players he skates with but he could be between Max Pacioretty and Mark Stone in a couple weeks. That seems pretty good to me!

That is kind of the crux here. There’s no real telling where Eichel is going to land in the lineup. My assumption is he goes right to the top line with Chandler Stephenson down on the third line. Of course, this team is very particular about their centers and who they play with, so maybe Eichel starts out on the third line? It seems at least plausible they do that to get him acclimated to the NHL again, seeing as it’s been nearly a year since he’s played a game. (feb8)

20. Jakub Vrana, remember him? He was traded last season for Anthony Mantha but has missed the entire 2021-22 season due to injury. We won’t dig in too much here but he was skating with the team before the All-Star break. It might be worth checking waiver wires just in case. (feb8)

21. It seems as if Cole Perfetti‘s nine-game tryout came and went without much fanfare, but looks to be on this roster for the rest of the year. He has been on the second line with Kyle Connor and Pierre-Luc Dubois, with about 15:30 TOI a game lately. The problem, of course, is that he has just five points in 14 games.

How much fantasy value he’ll have for the next couple months is tough to say. Nikolaj Ehlers was placed on long-term injured reserve recently so he’ll miss at least another week, but can return any time after that. Once he comes back, is there a spot for Perfetti in the top-6? Do they move Blake Wheeler to the third line? New coach and all that, so maybe.

There should be a lot of Perfetti excitement and he’s a guy to watch down the stretch. I just hope he can maintain his role because he has more upside in the fantasy game this year if he does. (feb8)

Have a good week, folks – stay safe!!
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