Ramblings: Svechnikov Breakout, Marchment At It Again, Fleury Shutout Loss (Feb 19)

Ian Gooding

2022-02-19

Our Frozen Tools Forensics writer Chris Kane profiled 4th Year Breakout players in his article this week. The most prominent name on that list is Andrei Svechnikov, who continued to add to his point total on Friday. Svechnikov scored a pair of power-play goals to go with an assist in the Hurricanes' 5-3 win over Nashville. Over his last five games, Svechnikov has six goals and three assists. As well, he is over the point-per-game mark (47 PTS in 45 GP) for the first time in his career.

We haven't had to wait that long for Svechnikov to blossom. He has scored 20 goals three times in his career, and he even came close to a point-per-game in the shortened 2019-20 season (61 PTS in 68 GP). He's already keeping quite the company with what he's accomplished so far.

Vincent Trocheck left this game with an upper-body injury. After the game, Rod Brind'Amour said he didn't think the injury was serious, but they would know more tomorrow.

Memo to Montreal fans: The icetime leader among Canes forwards was Jesperi Kotkaniemi (17:46). That was likely due to the Trocheck injury, though. KK scored a goal while taking three shots. He had not recorded a point in his previous four games or a goal in his previous eight games, and his average icetime has been much more limited throughout the season (12:20).

Frederik Andersen has not had a really bad start since November 30. (Leafs fans may remember that he had a bunch of them last season, particularly in March.) Since that last RBS, Freddie has a record of 15-2-2 with a 2.15 GAA and .926 SV%. His quality start percentage (52.6%) could be higher, but there aren't many better options if you need a win. He is currently tied with Andrei Vasilevskiy for the league lead in in that category (26).

With three helpers, Roman Josi now has eight points (all assists) in his last five games. Josi is one of four d-men that are producing at a point-per-game or higher (minimum 40 GP). Cale Makar, Adam Fox, and Victor Hedman are the others.

You may have noticed that teams are pulling the goalie earlier in the game. Down 4-1, the Predators pulled Juuse Saros with six minutes left in regulation. The plan almost worked, as the Preds scored two goals with an extra attacker before Svechnikov iced the game with an empty-net goal. The Wild did the same with about seven minutes left and down two goals, but they could not score with the net empty. There's a fantastic article on The Athletic written by Eric Duhatschek on January 14 about the reasoning behind this new tactic. Dean Evason is quoted and mentioned in particular in the article.

What's this, another huge game from Mason Marchment? Three games ago (which was actually nearly three weeks ago because of the long layoff the Panthers recently had), Marchment exploded for six points. On Friday, Marchment scored his first career hat trick to go with a plus-3 and five shots. The Panthers have three solid scoring lines, and the Marchment – Sam ReinhartAnton Lundell unit forming what has to be one of the league's top third units.  

Anyone that is a realist probably didn't project another game like this so quickly from Marchment. His advanced stats are all sky high and scream regression. He's probably the one current point-per-game player that you least expected to be scoring at that rate. I'd 100% bet the under on him finishing the season at that pace, even if he is moved up to Aleksander Barkov's line. That being said, he at least seems to deserve a place on more rosters than he already is (22% Yahoo/48% Fantrax).

Reinhart extended his point streak to five games with an assist on one of Marchment's goals. Lundell assisted on two of Marchment's goals.

With a goal and an assist (both on the power play), Mats Zuccarello continues his unbelievable run. Over his last 13 games, Zuccarello has 10 multipoint games. Certain players seem to find great chemistry with another player, and that's what's happening with Zuccarello and Kirill Kaprizov. Those two players have been glued to the hip (literally, not figuratively, because they're actually skating all over the ice) both on evens and the power play. Over that multipoint stretch, Zuccarello has piled up 23 points in 13 games. I wasn't a big fan of the Zuccarello signing when it happened (AAV $6 million), but it seems to be paying off right now.

Kaprizov isn't doing so badly himself right now. Since December 20 he has 28 points in 16 games. He's also vaulted his way into the top 10 in NHL scoring (61 points in 45 games).

Cam Talbot and Kaapo Kahkonen have been taking turns with starts since late January, but Talbot was given the nod for the second consecutive game on Friday. Allowing four goals to a Panthers team that already scores an average of four goals per game shouldn't be considered terrible, although allowing five goals to the Jets in his previous games means he's not at his best at the moment. Even though Kahkonen played very well when Talbot was injured, it looks like Dean Evason will still give the higher-salaries Talbot the majority of the workload.  

Few stats in hockey intrigue me more than the shutout loss. It's the irony of zero goals allowed during regulation and overtime not being enough to earn the win. Usually it's the other way around – goalies can earn a W in spite of allowing at least a goal. Marc-Andre Fleury was tagged with the shutout loss on Friday, making 29 saves but losing in the shootout on Dallas's sixth shooter. Here's some facts on shutout losses from my quick Twitter search on the topic.

It's been either feast or famine for Fleury over his past 10 games. He has posted five quality starts over that span, but he has also posted five really bad starts. In spite of some solid efforts like this one, Fleury has had a rougher go of it in Chicago, which we figured would happen. A trade to a playoff contender at the deadline might help his value, so don't dump your Fleury shares just yet.

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If one goalie receives a shutout loss, the other goalie earns a shutout win. That goalie was Jake Oettinger, who stopped 34 shots in regulation and overtime. Oettinger now has three consecutive quality starts to his name, and he has started six of the last games for Dallas. Braden Holtby has stumbled over the past month (5 GP, 3.63 GAA, .883 SV%), so Oettinger looks like the guy now. As we'd predicted would happen eventually, and as you'd hoped for.

On a side note, one of my leagues awards ten points for a win, but only six points for a shutout. Maybe that should be reversed?

Jesse Puljujarvi is expected to miss the next 3-4 weeks with a lower-body injury. Puljujarvi has points in three of the four games that Jay Woodcroft has coached, so his play was on the upswing after he had failed to record a single point in nine games. Keep an eye on whoever gets bumped up to one of the Oilers scoring lines.

Nice little infographic on the Canucks before and after their coaching change, now that Travis Green and Bruce Boudreau have coached the team for an equal number of games. As you'd expect, many significant Canucks are performing better under Boudreau – but not all of them.

Fantasy Take: Green Out, Boudreau In for Van City

Chandler Stephenson was moved up to the Jack EichelMax Pacioretty line on Friday, which meant that the struggling Evgenii Dadonov was moved down. Yes, I'll eat crow on my earlier recommendation to add Dadonov. (Being right more often than I am wrong is really the key to what I do.) Credit to Looking Ahead writer Andrew Santillo, who suggested that might happen.

Stephenson did not record a point on the top line, but Eichel recorded his first point as a Golden Knight on Friday. Eichel assisted on one of Max Pacioretty's two goals.

Adrian Kempe also scored two goals, including the overtime winner over Vegas. Kempe has been consistently scoring goals (9 G in his last 17 GP) and is already up to a team-leading 20 goals. However, this was his first multipoint game since late December.

Since Vegas's week-long break, Laurent Brossoit has started back-to-back games. He allowed four goals on 31 shots in the overtime loss to LA. If Robin Lehner is battling something that is at least somewhat serious, can Vegas add another goalie? More importantly, can they afford another goalie? In the meantime, feel free to add Brossoit if you need goaltending help.

For more fantasy hockey discussion, follow me on Twitter @Ian_Gooding

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